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       [HN Gopher] Toyota Mirai hydrogen car depreciation: 65% value lo...
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       Toyota Mirai hydrogen car depreciation: 65% value loss in a year
        
       Author : iancmceachern
       Score  : 130 points
       Date   : 2026-02-21 18:09 UTC (12 hours ago)
        
  HTML web link (carbuzz.com)
  TEXT w3m dump (carbuzz.com)
        
       | sremani wrote:
       | I once did some research on Mirai and found at that time Plano,
       | TX where Toyota NA is Headquartered did not have a Hydrogen
       | station. Not sure if they have one now. It is such a limited car
       | and because of the infrastructure stuck to LA and San Diego, I
       | guess.
       | 
       | Pure range is 500+ miles but not many Hydrogen stations.
        
       | giancarlostoro wrote:
       | This is one of those cars that's interesting to me, but I don't
       | know that we'll ever go this route in a significant amount.
       | Problem is how complex it is to create hydrogen, although 'green
       | hydrogen' is a thing, it would take quite a bit regardless.
       | Interesting to note that if we could extract only 2% of the
       | hydrogen burried under the earth, we could power the entire world
       | for over 200 years. Which is crazy to think about.
       | 
       | The other interesting thing about these cars is the output is
       | water out of the tailpipe.
        
         | pjc50 wrote:
         | It's very easy to create hydrogen from fossil natural gas.
         | Which is the real motivation behind 99% of H2 projects;
         | continue to emit CO2, just hidden from the end user.
         | 
         | Battery electric is now pretty much inevitable.
        
           | pfdietz wrote:
           | In fairness, hydrogen from gas would enable the CO2 to be
           | sequestered. If the vehicle itself burned the natural gas
           | that would require recapturing the CO2 from the atmosphere
           | itself, which is much more challenging.
           | 
           | None of this is to detract from the attractiveness of battery
           | vehicles.
        
             | pjc50 wrote:
             | Carbon sequestration is another of those "if we did this,
             | it might solve the problem, but there's no serious move to
             | do it and pay for it on the scale required, plus it's prone
             | to cheating".
        
           | 2muchcoffeeman wrote:
           | How do you solve aeronautical and maritime applications?
        
             | danhor wrote:
             | Certainly not with hydrogen directly. It might be involved
             | in the production chain, but it's such a pain. If it's at
             | all possible to electrify, that'll very likely win.
             | 
             | For flights, a combination of batteries for smaller,
             | regional planes starting with "islands hoppers" now and SAF
             | from either Biofuel or produced from Electricity (with
             | Hydrogen as an intermediate step). Although I think that we
             | might first see moves to reduce the 2x non CO2 Climate
             | Impacts which can be much cheaper to tackle (such as
             | Contrails).
             | 
             | For maritime applications, batteries when regularly near
             | ports, probably hybrids with methanol for cross-ocean
             | passage far away from coasts.
        
             | fsh wrote:
             | Hydrogen is not great for airplanes since the extremely low
             | density makes the tanks too large. The best solution would
             | be synthetic hydrocarbons (synthesized using hydrogen)
             | which can outperform fossil jet fuel.
        
             | pjc50 wrote:
             | The Toyota Mirai neither flies nor floats.
             | 
             | There's a bit of a movement for battery electric ships, but
             | currently limited to short haul ferries. I have a suspicion
             | this simply won't be "solved" for quite some time after car
             | and heating electrification.
        
         | mono442 wrote:
         | It's possible to create hydrogen from coal and carbon capture
         | is supposed to be feasible. Though I don't know how
         | commercially viable this is.
        
           | peterfirefly wrote:
           | Carbon doesn't really contain all that much hydrogen.
           | 
           | Feasibility is key.
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GSV2kVkO1w
        
             | pfdietz wrote:
             | > Carbon doesn't really contain all that much hydrogen.
             | 
             | The hydrogen also comes from water reacted (mildly
             | endothermically) with carbon, and by further reaction of
             | carbon monoxide with water.
             | 
             | C + H2O --> CO + H2
             | 
             | CO + H2O --> CO2 + H2
        
         | Rohansi wrote:
         | Creating hydrogen isn't the only problem. Storage and
         | transportation is a big one since it is an actual gas instead
         | of a liquid. Needs to be compressed, causes embrittlement,
         | highly flammable, etc...
        
       | helterskelter wrote:
       | I've seen exactly one of these in person while in San Diego for a
       | month or so. I never did see a fueling station for it though.
        
         | kotaKat wrote:
         | There's only... well, 51 of them. If you're lucky, you're near
         | one of the 42 that are actually online and available for
         | fueling (as of this comment).
         | 
         | Stations running out of fuel and stations going offline for
         | hardware failures runs rampant.
         | 
         | Oh, and some stations might not be able to provide the highest
         | pressure H2, so you might be stuck taking an 85% tank fill...
         | and at nearly $30/kg and a 5.6kg (full) tank, that's an
         | expensive fill.
         | 
         | https://h2-ca.com/
        
           | peterfirefly wrote:
           | And they are not even supposed to explode anymore!
        
       | themafia wrote:
       | In the US. How does their value fare in Japan?
        
         | decimalenough wrote:
         | Given the complete collapse in sales last year (-83% to 432
         | units, in a market of over 4M cars sold), I'd venture to guess
         | they're faring pretty badly.
         | 
         | https://www.automotiveworld.com/news/fcev-sales-in-japan-fal...
        
         | numpad0 wrote:
         | https://www.carsensor.net/usedcar/bTO/s235/index.html
        
       | wlesieutre wrote:
       | It's not really fair to compare depreciation against MSRP when
       | they were being sold new at massive discounts. You could've
       | gotten one of these for $40,000 off.
       | 
       | https://www.carscoops.com/2024/02/toyota-offers-crazy-40k-di...
        
         | appcustodian2 wrote:
         | It's extremely fair to compare depreciation against MSRP.
         | What's not fair is to say that they were being "sold new at
         | massive discounts" when in reality it's an asterisk-ridden
         | rebate process that applied to one model year under specific
         | circumstances. That article was spam when it was written, can
         | you provide a first party source for these massive discounts?
        
           | Aurornis wrote:
           | Depreciation is measured against the price someone actually
           | paid.
           | 
           | The MSRP doesn't matter. The S stands for suggested.
        
         | stetrain wrote:
         | This is a source of a lot of similar press around EV
         | depreciation. They compare the MSRP of an EV 3 years ago with
         | the current used market price, ignoring that the actual price
         | paid is often significantly less due a combination of
         | discounts, tax credits, and rebates.
        
           | cosmic_cheese wrote:
           | The part that's interesting to me is how much the
           | depreciation is posed as negative rather than positive.
           | 
           | The long term value of a car is only really relevant if one
           | is constantly cycling through cars and needs the trade-
           | in/resale value. If a car isn't viewed as an investment
           | and/or the intention is to drive it into the ground,
           | depreciation is purely positive because it means that there's
           | insanely good deals on some great cars right now. Of course
           | everybody's needs are different, but for a lot of people
           | there's nothing that comes remotely close of the value of a
           | gently driven, practically new 1-3 year old lease return EV.
        
             | freetime2 wrote:
             | > The long term value of a car is only really relevant if
             | one is constantly cycling through cars and needs the trade-
             | in/resale value.
             | 
             | Depreciation is based on real-world qualities of a vehicle
             | that determine how desireable it is to own over time.
             | Toyotas tend to depreciate slower than Mercedes-Benz, for
             | example, because maintenance and repair costs tend to be
             | lower. For someone looking to buy a car new and drive it
             | for 10+ years, they are probably going to be drawn to car
             | models that have a reputation for reliability and thus hold
             | their value. Even if you don't care about the resale value
             | of a car, you probably do care about the underlying factors
             | driving that resale price.
             | 
             | With EVs the factors driving depreciation are concerns
             | about rapid tech obsolescence, battery degredation and
             | replacement costs, incentives and new price cuts, and
             | charging infrastructure. You also hear stories about Tesla
             | drivers waiting 6+ months for a replacement part, Rivians
             | being totaled because of a dent in a rear quarter panel,
             | etc. These are all reasonable things for a buyer to be
             | concerned with, in my opinion.
             | 
             | But I agree that if you are ok with all of the above in a
             | used EV (range and charging speed may not matter if you
             | have a place to charge at home, for example), there are
             | good deals to be found.
        
               | Spivak wrote:
               | I don't understand why this is grey, this is exactly
               | correct. Depreciation is good actually ignores the
               | realities of why a car's value is tanking in the first
               | place. The only time high depreciation is good for you as
               | a buyer is if you think the market is mispricing cars and
               | they're actually far more valuable than the cost they're
               | being sold for. But best keep that secret because the
               | market will be quick to correct once it's discovered.
        
               | cosmic_cheese wrote:
               | I would point out a subtlety here: deprecation is based
               | on _perceived_ value, and this perception tracks much
               | more closely with the glacial knowledge of the larger
               | public than it does with that of an informed individual.
               | 
               | Battery degradation is extremely overrepresented in the
               | minds of the public for example and based mostly on the
               | performance of early entrants like the original Nissan
               | Leaf. Since then, chemistries and management systems have
               | progressed dramatically and rendered it a moot point --
               | most EVs made in the past several years will have their
               | batteries outlast the useful life of the vehicle. In the
               | case the Ariya, Nissan appears to have overcorrected for
               | the Leaf's reputation to such an extreme that they can be
               | fast charged to 100% for many dozens of cycles and still
               | show no capacity loss.
               | 
               | This is a gap in knowledge that smart buyers who are
               | willing to do a little bit of research can exploit and
               | get much more car for their money than would otherwise be
               | possible.
        
           | loeg wrote:
           | My state assesses annual car taxes based on MSRP rather than
           | real market value, unfortunately, so these fake MSRPs matter
           | to me. :-(
        
       | LTL_FTC wrote:
       | Toyota restricted the sale of its hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to
       | specific, qualified customers who lived or worked near existing,
       | functional hydrogen refueling stations. I remember looking into
       | them when first released but realized I wasn't eligible and the
       | fact that Toyota restricted the sale meant there was a huge risk
       | in buying them.
       | 
       | With all the recent outrage and lawsuits, I wonder how many
       | buyers actually did their due diligence and weighed the risk
       | before committing to them? Or maybe the huge fuel subsidy was
       | seen as a win even if this event played out? Idk but I commend
       | Toyota for taking the risk and going for it.
       | 
       | Edit: typo
        
         | decimalenough wrote:
         | Approximately zero regular consumers purchased hydrogen cars.
         | They were all fleet purchases designed primarily to publish
         | burnish eco-friendly credentials, like this:
         | 
         |  _" This new initiative reinforces Air Liquide's commitment to
         | decarbonizing transportation and accelerating the shift toward
         | sustainable and low-carbon mobility solutions."_
         | 
         | https://www.airliquide.com/group/press-releases-news/2025-11...
         | 
         | Of course, Air Liquide would also profit massively from
         | building hydrogen infra if it did become commonplace.
        
           | kotaKat wrote:
           | Funny thing, Air Liquide. They were going to build a massive
           | green hydrogen plant in upstate NY and backed out when the
           | tax credits disappeared...
           | 
           | https://www.airproducts.com/company/news-
           | center/2025/02/0224...
        
             | Aurornis wrote:
             | > and backed out when the tax credits disappeared...
             | 
             | As they should. If the terms of the deal change, you need
             | to start over with the business case and financials.
             | 
             | If you want someone to be mad at, it's the politicians
             | making these bad tax credit decisions. Not the companies
             | trying to respond to the tax credit incentives. Getting
             | companies to build things they otherwise wouldn't is the
             | entire purpose of tax credits.
        
               | butvacuum wrote:
               | Hydrogen systems just don't make sense. Neither do
               | molecular Hydrogen Fuel Cells.
               | 
               | Now, green hydrogen for ammonia, and Ammonia fuel cells?
               | Yes.
        
           | LTL_FTC wrote:
           | Well... I did/do see many around the Bay Area. Especially
           | during the morning commute. But I agree, overall it was a low
           | volume car.
        
       | BadBadJellyBean wrote:
       | I don't think hydrogen will ever be a thing for personal cars.
       | Apart from the abysmal "well to wheel" efficiency it's also just
       | such a hassle to create a fuel network for it. Gasoline is bad
       | enough but a gas that will just leak away whatever you do seems
       | like a stretch. It is just so much simpler with electricity.
       | Pretty much every gas station already has it. No driving it
       | around with trucks. Just maybe once install a bigger cable or a
       | battery/capacitor.
        
         | bombcar wrote:
         | My understanding is most hydrogen fueling stations produce the
         | hydrogen onsite via electrolysis of water.
         | 
         | EDIT: My understanding was wrong - it's produced locally onsite
         | but via steam-methane reforming:
         | https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-production-na...
        
           | hvb2 wrote:
           | If you can do that at a meaningful rate you might as well
           | install ev charging and just not electrolyse when cars are
           | charging
        
             | b112 wrote:
             | He didn't say it doesn't have local tanks. Only that it
             | makes h2 local. You can still make h2 to replenish, and
             | have storage.
             | 
             | This is akin to how almost all power used to charge cars,
             | is not-green. For example, there are still Ng, coal, and
             | other types of power plants. If cars switched to gas,
             | instead of electric charging, then some of those could be
             | shut down.
             | 
             | But the true point, is as we convert to more and more
             | solar, we'll eventually shut down the last of the fossil
             | fuel burner plants, and eventually the cars will all be
             | green power sourced.
             | 
             | Same with h2. Getting non-polling cars out the door and
             | into people's hands, is key. Eventually, where the power
             | comes from will be clean. And really, we're already having
             | issues with power infra, even before AI, so re-purposing Ng
             | pipelines for H2 would be a great thing.
        
               | estimator7292 wrote:
               | We won't get rid of natural gas any time soon. Ng
               | pipelines are not in _any way_ similar to H2 pipelines
               | except the word  'pipe'. You can't just put hydrogen in
               | them. You can't even retrofit them. You're looking at
               | laying an entirely new pipeline either way.
               | 
               | Furthermore, most H2 is produced by fossil fuel
               | extraction. We aren't cracking water to get H2, we're
               | pulling it out of the ground. Cracking water is
               | _hideously_ expensive.
               | 
               | All in all, combustion engines are more efficient than
               | green hydrogen. That's the core problem. We simply don't
               | have the absurd amounts of unused energy required for
               | green H2 production. If we did, we'd be pumping fully
               | half of that energy into the atmosphere as waste heat.
               | 
               | Hydrogen cars aren't going to happen. We won't have grid-
               | scale hydrogen. It's just a terrible idea. Hydrogen is
               | too difficult to handle and incredibly dangerous to
               | store. The efficiency is so ludicrously bad that you
               | would genuinely do better to create syngas from captured
               | atmospheric carbon and burn it in regular combustion
               | vehicles.
               | 
               | Avoiding carbon emissions is not the only concern in
               | regards to the climate. Focusing on carbon and nothing
               | else leads you to really dumb and bad ideas like piping
               | hydrogen gas across the continent.
        
               | b112 wrote:
               | h2 can be co-mingled with Ng and extracted with a molar
               | filter at the other end.
               | 
               | Ng pipelines are everywhere, so it makes perfect sense.
        
               | adastra22 wrote:
               | None of the pipes or valves are designed for hydrogen. It
               | will steal leak. And leaking a very flammable gas isn't
               | great.
        
               | mike50 wrote:
               | Let alone the compressors or the flow measurement
               | equipment. Also significant portions of the pipesline
               | (especially in neighborhoods / last mile) aren't metal
               | anymore.
        
               | fsh wrote:
               | This is not quite true. The original gas pipes in most
               | cities were built for "town gas" which was produced from
               | coal and is 50% hydrogen by volume. The infrastructure
               | could handle hydrogen just fine, but the low conversion
               | efficiencies make it impractical.
        
           | blibble wrote:
           | this is the case while they're in the hype building phase,
           | when people are paying attention
           | 
           | if hydrogen even gained widespread adoption, it would be mass
           | produced via steam reforming of natural gas
           | 
           | (which is why the oil majors are the ones desperately pushing
           | it)
        
             | b112 wrote:
             | That makes no sense. If the oil companies were pushing H2,
             | every car would be H2 by now.
             | 
             | H2 can be generated anywhere there is power. Any power that
             | can be used to charge a car's battery, can be used to make
             | H2. Yes, I'm sure you have 1000 reasons, but I don't really
             | care, it's just not reasonable to discredit h2 because of
             | made up paranoia.
             | 
             | We should embrace _any_ way to get a clean running car on
             | the road.
        
               | BadBadJellyBean wrote:
               | But isn't that a counter point? Just putting the
               | electricity directly into a car seems sensible instead of
               | converting it to H2 and then back to electricity.
               | Especially now that wo don't usually have a huge
               | oversupply of green energy. We can think of ways to use
               | the oversupply when it really becomes a problem. But I'd
               | assume then BEV will be so dominant the no one will go
               | through the hassle of supporting H2.
        
               | Tade0 wrote:
               | There's no point. EVs go 50% further on the same amount
               | of energy, are easier to charge and are, of course,
               | cheaper.
        
               | b112 wrote:
               | EVs take forever to charge, rendering long trips
               | unrealistic. They are not cheaper long term, for they
               | rely upon thousands of pounds of heavy batteries.
               | 
               | If they go further now, that is not a given down the
               | road.
               | 
               | Were you to employ this logic when electric cars first
               | came out, there wouldn't be a single one on the road.
               | It's only through trillions of research dollars, that
               | current battery tech is where it is.
               | 
               | But sure, let's not work on multiple paths. Let's
               | discount other attempts at clean tech. Even if they're
               | older, cost less to the environment to build (batteries
               | are terrible, environmentally), and so on.
        
               | matthewdgreen wrote:
               | H2 from electrolysis is wildly expensive. H2 from natural
               | gas is more affordable. Both are alternatives to BEVs,
               | which are the better approach to electrifying transport.
               | If Toyota had gone all in on BEVs when it began its H2
               | strategy, it would be selling more EVs than Tesla.
               | Instead it entirely ceded the field to others, first
               | Tesla and BYD.
        
               | b112 wrote:
               | _H2 from electrolysis is wildly expensive. H2 from
               | natural gas is more affordable._
               | 
               | Irrelevant. It seems like everyone who argues against H2
               | is stuck on "now". Had that been the case with battery
               | powered cars, they'd have never got off of the ground.
               | 
               | Batteries were terrible, wildly expensive, extremely
               | unreliable. It's only been the immense research poured
               | into them, that has brought their costs down.
               | 
               | Meanwhile, the cost of storage on an H2 car is nothing,
               | compared to the immense and exorbitant cost of all those
               | batteries. Batteries which make a car extremely heavy.
               | Batteries which cannot be charged below -20C, and require
               | heaters. Batteries which are incredibly dangerous in car
               | accidents. Batteries which are costly, and damaging to
               | the environment to create, difficult to recycle, and
               | damaging to the environment to recycle.
               | 
               | Compared to battery tech of any type, H2 is a dream from
               | the gods.
               | 
               | Yet because there hasn't been 17 trillion dollars of cash
               | thrown into h2 generation tech, people prattle on about
               | how expensive h2 generation is.
               | 
               | And it doesn't matter where h2 comes from _now_. It
               | matters where it _can_ and _will_ come from. The goal isn
               | 't to make sources of power to generate h2 clean, the
               | goal is to get end-polluters, cars, clean.
               | 
               | If the only goal was "clean", then most electric
               | batteries charging right now, would fail that very goal.
               | After all, there are still coal and gas power plants this
               | very moment, and if we pulled all electric cars off the
               | road, those would close.
               | 
               | No, the goal is to work towards more and more solar
               | power, wind, etc. And in parallel, get cars ready for the
               | day when power they're charged from isn't polluting.
               | 
               | The myopic view of what I deem hyper-environmentalists,
               | is disturbing to me. It is paramount that we don't let
               | short sighted views fog the reality around us.
               | 
               | Anyone arguing 1000lbs of batteries, all environmentally
               | damaging in their construction, recycling cost, and
               | disposal, is superior to h2, is arguing from a pedestal
               | of sandy, earthquake prone, unstable support.
        
               | fragmede wrote:
               | You raise dying some good points, but hydrogen is really
               | hard to store. It leaks out of everything. You have to
               | very carefully design three containment vessel in order
               | for it not to go wrong.
        
               | blibble wrote:
               | say you're Shell
               | 
               | you are vertically integrated, you have billions invested
               | in oilfields, refineries, distribution, and the retail
               | channel ("gas stations")
               | 
               | if transport switches to electric, what's your role?
               | 
               | answer: there isn't one, you are completely redundant
               | 
               | but what if hydrogen took off instead?
               | 
               | if you produce via electrolysis, you only keep the retail
               | channel
               | 
               | but if you can get H2 established, then you can do a
               | switcheroo and feed in H2 produced from your existing
               | natural gas infrastructure, and massively undercut
               | everyone's electrolysis business
               | 
               | at which point you're back to the old days, just instead
               | of selling gasoline from your oilfields, you're supplying
               | hydrogen produced from their gas
               | 
               | ... and that's exactly what they're trying to do
        
               | constantcrying wrote:
               | >We should embrace any way to get a clean running car on
               | the road.
               | 
               | No. We should embrace the technically most feasible,
               | which opens up new technology to the most people.
               | 
               | EVs are the clear winners. Every cent spent on hydrogen
               | infrastructure is a cent wasted, because it could go to
               | making the one feasible technology better. Arbitrary
               | openness to technology long after it has been clearly
               | established that the technology is inferior is not a good
               | thing, it is a path to stay on ICEs forever.
               | 
               | Hydrogen is a _bad_ idea. The only way to defend it is by
               | pretending modern EVs do not exist, since they solved all
               | the existing problems and offer numerous benefits over
               | hydrogen.
               | 
               | Additionally the customer has already chosen and he has
               | chosen the right technology, because the value
               | proposition of an EV is far greater than that of a
               | hydrogen car.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | > We should embrace any way to get a clean running car on
               | the road.
               | 
               | Only if it's also feasible to fuel that car in a clean
               | way.
               | 
               | And looking at where the hydrogen would come from is not
               | "made up" or "paranoia".
        
               | b112 wrote:
               | It is entirely feasible. And it is made up to claim that
               | "Well, this second it looks like there's no infra for
               | green h2, so it can never happen! So there!"
               | 
               | If that was the case, we'd still have electric cars with
               | 50km range, and 1000lbs of batteries.
        
             | toast0 wrote:
             | Natural gas vehicles make way more sense than hydrogen. But
             | they didn't survive in the (US) market outside specific
             | fleet applications.
             | 
             | Turns out compressed gas fuel is a big PITA.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | They were popular in Thailand and Cambodia for awhile due
               | to domestic natural gas reserves. But after those wells
               | began to dry up Thailand at least decided EVs were the
               | future instead.
        
           | BadBadJellyBean wrote:
           | Okay not driving it around then. But somehow it's worse. You
           | still have to build the special tank and the special pump and
           | also get an electrolysis device that is big enough to create
           | enough hydrogen and also you have to get heaps of power
           | somewhere that could instead be just straight put into a
           | battery in a car. Make it make sense. What's the point? Who
           | is willing to do that?
        
             | MBCook wrote:
             | Don't forget keeping everything cold enough.
             | 
             | On the vehicle side, you can make a gasoline tank in pretty
             | much any shape you want. We have lots of experience making
             | batteries in different shapes thanks to cell phones.
             | 
             | High-pressure tanks only want to be in one shape. And it's
             | not especially convenient.
        
               | BadBadJellyBean wrote:
               | Is the shape round? I bet it's round.
        
               | flir wrote:
               | Ultimately, it's shrapnel-shaped.
        
               | BadBadJellyBean wrote:
               | Is that shrapnel arranged in a roundish pattern?
        
             | mmooss wrote:
             | > battery
             | 
             | Batteries create a lot of toxic waste. I'm willing to live
             | with that if it doesn't cause climate change but there is
             | an advantage to hydrogen? What is the impact of H2 fuel
             | cells?
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | Batteries do not create a lot of toxic waste and are
               | essentially fully recyclable.
               | 
               | The lead in automotive lead acid batteries today is
               | almost entirely recovered and remanufactured into new
               | batteries.
        
           | hannob wrote:
           | Your understanding is entirely wrong.
           | 
           | Most hydrogen fueling stations receive it from the next steam
           | reformer, which will make it from fossil gas.
        
           | deadbabe wrote:
           | Isn't this bad? This means H2O molecules are being destroyed
           | and the water is not returning to the water cycle to be
           | reused. We will literally run out of water if everyone did
           | this.
        
             | dxdm wrote:
             | Water gets split into oxygen and hydrogen using energy. The
             | hydrogen then gets burned to release usable energy, which
             | creates water. At least as far as I remember from chemistry
             | class ages ago.
        
               | vardump wrote:
               | There's some truth to what the gp said. Some hydrogen
               | will escape, enter the upper atmosphere, and be blown
               | away by the solar wind and thus be permanently lost.
        
           | aunty_helen wrote:
           | That's not a thing. Anyone who's seen hydrogen being split
           | from electrolysis knows it takes a lot lot lot of electricity
           | and is very slow. If two people needed to fill up in the same
           | day it would run the well dry.
        
           | jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
           | Completely wrong.
           | 
           | Globally over 95% of hydrogen is sourced from fossil fuels,
           | particularly natural gas wells. Electrolysis is very limited
           | to niche applications or token projects.
        
             | mmooss wrote:
             | The electrolysis needs power and could be fueled by fossil
             | fuels.
        
             | bombcar wrote:
             | Maybe that's what it was - produced onsite via steam
             | extraction from piped in natural gas (which means you could
             | just as easily burn the natural gas in the vehicle).
             | 
             | Either way there aren't many trucks full of hydrogen
             | zipping around.
        
         | buckle8017 wrote:
         | > Pretty much every gas station already has [electricity].
         | 
         | Sure but they don't have electric vehicle recharging
         | electricity.
         | 
         | They have run the pumps and power the lights electricity.
        
           | BadBadJellyBean wrote:
           | Still seems like a smaller investment to get a bigger cable
           | than H2 infrastructure (Tanks, Pumps, maybe even electrolysis
           | system).
        
             | buckle8017 wrote:
             | Bigger cable is a laugh.
             | 
             | Bigger cable, upgraded delivery infrastructure to support
             | that cable (think more or stronger poles), transformer
             | upgrades, and finally the charging stations which unlike
             | the home ones aren't just a complicated switch because DC
             | fast charging.
             | 
             | H2 is a stupid fuel, but the idea that high power vehicle
             | charging stations are a cheap or simple upgrade to a gas
             | station is ridiculous.
        
           | MBCook wrote:
           | True, but they already exist.
           | 
           | Hydrogen stations don't. If you have to build new ones,
           | especially if you have to supply them with enough power to
           | create their own hydrogen for water, what's the difference
           | from just building EV chargers?
           | 
           | And if you're going to add hydrogen to existing gasoline
           | stations then same question.
           | 
           | If hydrogen was somehow able to use existing gasoline
           | infrastructure it would make a lot more sense. But it's not.
        
             | glitchc wrote:
             | H2 can be transported by trucks. Must lay expensive hydro
             | infrastructure to do the same for electricity.
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | But not by the same trailers, not stored in the same
               | tanks as gasoline, nor transferred by the same pumps.
               | 
               | This like saying obviously we can distribute grain using
               | gasoline infrastructure: after all, also both transported
               | by trucks.
        
         | helterskelter wrote:
         | I always figured it would make more sense for hydrogen to be an
         | option for renewable infra if the problems with leaking and
         | embrittlement could be solved. Currently, moving renewable
         | power over very long distances and storing it at scale is a
         | non-trivial issue which hydrogen could help solve.
         | 
         | This way, for example, Alaska in the winter could conceivably
         | get solar power from panels in Arizona.
        
           | pfdietz wrote:
           | Storage is the bigger problem, specifically very long
           | duration or rarely used storage (to cover Dunkelflauten, for
           | example) for which batteries are poorly suited. Hydrogen (or
           | more generally e-fuels) is one way to do that, but another
           | very attractive one is very low capex thermal storage.
           | Personally, I feel the latter would beat hydrogen: the round
           | trip efficiency is similar or better, the complexity is very
           | low, power-related capex should be lower, and there's no need
           | for possibly locally unavailable geology (salt formations)
           | for hydrogen storage.
           | 
           | With this sort of storage, Alaska in winter gets its energy
           | from Alaska in summer.
        
           | BadBadJellyBean wrote:
           | Only if we had a true oversupply of green energy. Converting
           | electricity to H2 and then back is so incredible inefficient.
           | It's less work to just create better electrical transmission
           | systems. China did that with their high voltage DC lines.
        
           | fsh wrote:
           | These problems are grossly exaggerated in popular
           | discussions. Hydrogen has been routinely transported and
           | stored in standard steel cylinders for over a century. Most
           | cities originally used coal gas (50% hydrogen by volume) for
           | heating and illumination before switching to natural gas
           | after World War II. What kills the idea is the abysmal
           | efficiency of electrolysis and hydrogen fuel cells. Standard
           | high-voltage DC power lines would be much better suited for
           | getting solar power from Arizona to Alaska.
        
           | stetrain wrote:
           | Moving renewable power is easy, we have a grid for that.
           | Infrastructure for movement of electricity is ubiquitous in
           | places that have never seen a hydrogen pump.
           | 
           | If the grid is insufficient in a particular place or
           | corridor, investing in upgrading it will provide a better
           | long term solution than converting electricity to hydrogen,
           | driving that hydrogen around on roads, and converting it back
           | into electricity.
           | 
           | Storage is a bigger issue for sure.
        
         | mappu wrote:
         | Gaseous form is a problem, but have you seen the Fraunhofer
         | POWERPASTE? I was optimistic when the news was first announced,
         | but that was a decade ago and of course it's not widely used.
        
           | XorNot wrote:
           | At that point you're just building a weird battery storage
           | system again though.
        
         | cbmuser wrote:
         | > It is just so much simpler with electricity.
         | 
         | Yet the market still thinks differently. Lots of countries
         | still keep subsidizing EV despite them already being mature
         | technology for such a long time.
         | 
         | We didn't have to subsidize the smart phone to make it
         | successful, we shouldn't have to subsidize electric cars
         | either.
        
           | pjerem wrote:
           | Maybe if we had smartphones that emitted greenhouse and toxic
           | gases by using a mini ICE engine that were so cheap nobody
           | would buy anything else, we would subsidize the electric
           | ones. We may even ban the gas phones.
        
           | kibibu wrote:
           | We also wouldn't need to if environmental externalities were
           | costed into petroleum prices.
        
           | jiggawatts wrote:
           | > we shouldn't have to subsidize electric cars either.
           | 
           | Smart phones were subsidised, just less obviously. Much of
           | the fundamental research into the radio systems was done by
           | government labs, for example.
           | 
           | Not to mention that governments provide maaaaasssive
           | subsidies to the entire fossil fuel industry, including
           | multi-trillion dollar wars in the middle east to control the
           | oil!
           | 
           | Look at it from the perspective of pollution control in
           | cities. China just invested tens of billions - maybe hundreds
           | -- into clearing out the smog they were notorious for.
           | Electric vehicles are a part of the solution.
           | 
           | The alternative is everyone living a decade less because...
           | the market forces will it.
        
           | DangitBobby wrote:
           | ICE love is cultural, and there's a bunch of FUD from
           | entrenched interests.
        
         | Tuna-Fish wrote:
         | And more to the point, if you want to use synthetic fuels, why
         | on earth would you pick hydrogen?
         | 
         | Yes, it burns to clean water, but if the carbon feedstock is
         | renewable, synthetic hydrocarbons are renewable too. The
         | efficiency loss from doing the additional steps to build
         | hydrocarbons is not large compared to the efficiency losses of
         | using hydrogen, and storage can be so much easier with
         | something denser.
        
       | haunter wrote:
       | Beautiful car but for example I live in Hungary and there is a
       | grand total of one charging station in the whole coutry in
       | Budapest. Yes it's free to charge but probably only makes sense
       | to get a Mirai if you are a Bolt or Uber driver. Nice tech demo
       | though.
       | 
       | Here is the european charging station map https://h2.live/en/
       | Benelux countries, Switzerland, and the Ruhr area are most likely
       | the best places to own this car
        
       | joecool1029 wrote:
       | Why was it made? I ask because GM's EV-1 was discussed earlier
       | and it basically existed due to California's zero-emission
       | requirement in the 90's. Is this just Toyota doing some random
       | R&D while fulfilling a state minimum requirement?
        
         | testing22321 wrote:
         | To trick people into thinking hydrogen cars are the future so
         | they don't buy an EV now.
         | 
         | I've driven my own vehicles through 65 countries on 5
         | continents, and even the most remote villages in Africa and
         | South America had electricity of some form.
         | 
         | I've never seen a hydrogen filling station in my life. The idea
         | we can build out that infrastructure faster than bolster the
         | electric grid is laughably stupid. Downright deceptive.
        
           | avidiax wrote:
           | I think there's some truth to this. Toyota desperately needs
           | the future to play to their strengths, something more
           | complicated than EVs, which I think is behind their obsession
           | with hybrids.
           | 
           | Not sure that a fuel cell vehicle isn't just an EV with extra
           | steps, however.
        
         | numpad0 wrote:
         | I think that + it's an EV that Toyota don't have to source the
         | battery cells. FCEVs are full EVs just like Tesla, that uses a
         | different kind of battery than Li-ion.
        
           | beAbU wrote:
           | The latest model comes with a li-ion battery pack. Previous
           | model had Nimh cells I think.
        
       | SilverElfin wrote:
       | I still feel hydrogen fuel cells are the better choice. The
       | convenience of refilling quickly is great. Maybe that'll matter
       | less if PHEVs are allowed to exist but with some places banning
       | gas cars entirely, I don't have hope.
        
         | elsonrodriguez wrote:
         | The inefficiency of creating, transporting, and converting
         | hydrogen into motion is way too much to bear for the purpose of
         | eliminating a 45 minute charging stop.
        
         | audunw wrote:
         | The convenience of filling is only there if you have the fuel
         | stations. Considering how expensive it is I'd argue that it's
         | far better to spend that money on EV charging infrastructure,
         | you get a lot more bang for gour buck. And EVs are arguable
         | significantly more convenient when you have the infrastructure.
         | Would you buy a phone that lasted a week or two, but you had to
         | go to a phone filling station to refill it?
         | 
         | And yes, EVs can be more convenient also for street parking.
         | It's just an infrastructure problem and by now there are dozens
         | of different solutions for every parking situation imaginable.
         | 
         | It's frankly absurd reading debates about this online from
         | Norway. It's over. Yeah Norway has money and cheap electricity,
         | that's what makes it possible to "speed run" the technology
         | transition. But other than that it's a worst case scenario for
         | EVs. Lots of people with only street parking in Oslo. Winter
         | that's brutal on range. People who love to drive hours and
         | hours to their cabin every weekend. With skis on the roof. Part
         | of schengen so people drive all the way down to croatia in
         | summer. We gave EVs and Hydrogen cars the same chance. Same
         | benefits. EVs won. End of story. Though a hydrogen station near
         | me blew up in a spectacularly loud explosion so maybe that
         | makes me a bit biased.
        
         | SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
         | > The convenience of refilling quickly is great.
         | 
         | Is it more convenient than plugging in an EV overnight at home,
         | and having a full "tank" every morning?
         | 
         | It is not.
         | 
         | Electricity supply is everywhere. More so than Gasoline supply,
         | and far far more so than hydrogen supply.
        
         | vel0city wrote:
         | I'll take the convenience of being able to charge my car every
         | night compared to having to drive out of my way to go to the
         | extremely rare hydrogen fuel station.
         | 
         | I spend more of my time pumping gas in my ICE car than I do
         | waiting on my EV to charge. Quite a bit more time despite
         | having a similar-ish mileage.
        
       | constantcrying wrote:
       | When comparing EVs to hydrogen cars it is very obvious that one
       | is the superior solution.
       | 
       | An EV is a clear simplification of an ICE. Add a Battery and
       | replace the mechanical complexity of a combustion engine with a
       | relatively simple electric motor. So many components are now
       | unnecessary and so many problems just go away. EVs also make
       | charging simpler.
       | 
       | Hydrogen cars on the other hand are very complex and also quite
       | inefficient, requiring many steps to go from hydrogen generation
       | to motor movement. And they require a very sophisticated network
       | of charging infrastructure, which has to deal with an explosive
       | gas at high pressures. Something which is dangerous even in
       | highly controlled industrial environments.
       | 
       | I just do not see a single reason why hydrogen cars would catch
       | on. EVs are good already and come with many benefits.
        
         | glitchc wrote:
         | > An EV is a clear simplification of an ICE. Add a Battery and
         | replace the mechanical complexity of a combustion engine with a
         | relatively simple electric motor. So many components are now
         | unnecessary and so many problems just go away. EVs also make
         | charging simpler.
         | 
         | Is it? Then why isn't it cheaper to produce and cheaper to own?
         | 
         | > Hydrogen cars on the other hand are very complex and also
         | quite inefficient, requiring many steps to go from hydrogen
         | generation to motor movement. And they require a very
         | sophisticated network of charging infrastructure, which has to
         | deal with an explosive gas at high pressures. Something which
         | is dangerous even in highly controlled industrial environments.
         | 
         | It's a standard combustion engine, nothing special.
        
           | mjamesaustin wrote:
           | EVs are cheaper to own - the fuel savings are enormous.
           | 
           | EVs aren't cheaper to produce yet, but battery costs are
           | still falling and they will reach parity with ICE vehicles
           | soon.
        
             | bdangubic wrote:
             | EVs are so much more cheaper to own that it is difficult to
             | explain to people who own ICE cars as they, in majority of
             | cases, just cannot comprehend it
        
           | vel0city wrote:
           | My EV has cost me ~$1,100/yr less to operate over the last
           | few years for the same mileage compared to my ICE, and I
           | didn't even have any major issues with my ICE. Meanwhile its
           | been charged with almost exclusively 100% renewable, zero-
           | emission energy.
        
           | MindSpunk wrote:
           | You're both wrong, the Mirai uses a fuel cell as the voltage
           | source for an otherwise EV drive train. The Mirai is an EV
           | with a fuel cell instead of a battery.
           | 
           | There is no ICE in a Mirai.
        
       | aunty_helen wrote:
       | Kinda glad this is the case. When people go out of their way to
       | avoid common sense they should be punished.
       | 
       | Hydrogen is such a terrible idea it was never getting off the
       | ground. There seems to be some kind of psychosis around it being
       | the next oil and therefore greedy people want to get in early on.
       | But this blinds them to the basic chemistry and physics.
        
         | marcosdumay wrote:
         | > There seems to be some kind of psychosis around it being the
         | next oil
         | 
         | There's a very well financed propaganda campaign.
        
           | pjc50 wrote:
           | Yes, it's not the new oil, it's the same oil in "green"
           | packaging. Plus some comforting lies about carbon capture.
        
             | aunty_helen wrote:
             | Even if it was fully green, you can't run an electrolysis
             | system from home. So you have to buy it, so there's a
             | market and an expensive solution.
             | 
             | Electricity comes out the wall.
        
               | thrownthatway wrote:
               | What do you mean?
               | 
               | You can run electrolysis from a cup.
        
               | aunty_helen wrote:
               | I know, I have one of those weird H shaped flasks with
               | the plat electrodes.
               | 
               | I also have a gas bbq, yet couldn't fill up a LNG car at
               | my house. Maybe there's something more to it than just
               | making small amounts of room temperature / pressure H2.
        
               | MagicMoonlight wrote:
               | You can't make and store bulk hydrogen at home
        
               | CamperBob2 wrote:
               | _You 're not my HOA_
        
               | thrownthatway wrote:
               | You can't.
               | 
               | I'm willing to give it a go.
               | 
               | I've got the excess solar from the rooftop solar panels,
               | the electrical and electronic knowledge, and the gas
               | fitter and metal fabrication experience.
               | 
               | I have an oil free air compressor, and anyone can by a
               | helium based cryo-cooler. I have an account with an
               | industrial gas supplier.
               | 
               | Just enough knowledge to be dangerous.
               | 
               | If Nile Red hasn't blown his lab up by the time I publish
               | this comment, I reckon I stand a chance.
        
               | KennyBlanken wrote:
               | Round trip efficiency of hydrogen is at best 50% and at
               | worse half that. You have the horrendous efficiency of
               | electrolysis and then the equally bad efficiency in the
               | fuel cell.
               | 
               | Efficiency pumping your excess solar into the EV itself
               | is more like 80-85%, most of which is loss in the
               | electronics, not the battery - those typically have a
               | coulombic efficiency of over 95%.
               | 
               | Hydrogen a boondoggle. It's not nearly as stupid as
               | making ethanol from corn (which is an energy-negative
               | process) but it's close.
               | 
               | Also, "gas fitter and metal fabrication" experience isn't
               | worth anything unless it was hydrogen-specific. It is
               | _far_ leakier than natural gas /propane. One of the
               | biggest hassles of a hydrogen fuel chain is that the
               | stuff leaks through _everything_.
        
           | KennyBlanken wrote:
           | Same with nuclear. The most expensive form of electricity
           | generation there is. No grid operator wants to touch it, but
           | the nuclear industry has been very busy lobbying congress and
           | both the current and last administration.
        
         | ForHackernews wrote:
         | Why is it such a terrible idea? In theory you can generate it
         | via electrolysis in places with plentiful renewable energy, and
         | then you've got a very high-density, lightweight fuel. On the
         | surface, it seems ideal for things like cars or planes where
         | vehicle weight matters. Batteries are huge and heavy and
         | nowhere near as energy dense as gasoline.
        
           | CamperBob2 wrote:
           | Besides being expensive to generate unless you already happen
           | to have an electrolysis plant handy, hydrogen is awkward and
           | hazardous to store. Once generated, it costs yet more energy
           | to liquefy, and then it seeps right through many common
           | metals, weakening them in the process. It's just not a good
           | consumer-level energy source, and nobody could figure out why
           | Toyota couldn't see that.
           | 
           | Interestingly, liquid hydrogen is nowhere near the most
           | energy-dense way to store and transport it. I don't recall
           | the exact numbers but absorption in a rare-earth metal matrix
           | is said to be much better on a volumetric basis. [1] Still
           | not exactly cheap or convenient, but it mitigates at least
           | some of the drawbacks with liquid H2.
           | 
           | 1: https://www.fuelcellstore.com/blog-section/what-hydrogen-
           | sto...
        
             | smcin wrote:
             | Remember that China briefly embargoed Japan for rare earth
             | metals in 2010, and Toyota launched the Mirai in 2014. My
             | theory was that it was developed as a national fallback for
             | Japan in case that embargo continued or got worse. Think
             | 1930s Volkswagen. Anyone can comment on that?
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | Japan went heavy into hydrogen for a couple of decades
               | ago. The only reason we are even talking about hydrogen
               | passenger vehicles now is because Japan thought it was
               | the future, they made a mistake.
        
               | smcin wrote:
               | I'm pointing out that the timeline of continuing funding
               | it, to the point of a major model design and launch, and
               | nationwide network of hydrogen stations, might well be
               | linked to China's emergent REE dominance and that Japan
               | doesn't have those raw materials.
               | 
               | (In some future decade/century, people might conclude
               | that car dependency on fossil fuels, after electric from
               | renewable became viable, was a mistake.)
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | I think Japan made their plans in the 2000s, maybe
               | starting to gain traction in 2010, this is long before
               | China became an EV power house or even had a dominant
               | share of rare earth processing.
        
               | smcin wrote:
               | Independent of that. I'm saying there was some wisdom to
               | continuing to fund it in Japan post-2010 as a hedge in
               | case REEs were unavailable.
               | 
               | (Separate to whether the idea originally made sense back
               | in the 2000s.)
        
           | stephen_g wrote:
           | It's horrible to work with - dangerous, embrittlement issues
           | etc., and very energy intensive to compress into very heavy
           | cryogenic storage containers...
        
             | credit_guy wrote:
             | > dangerous
             | 
             | It is actually less dangerous than other fuels, for the
             | simple reason that it is extremely light and buoyant. A
             | gasoline fire is bad, because the gasoline stays where it
             | is until it fully burns. A hydrogen fire is less bad,
             | because it will tend to move upwards.
        
               | jiggawatts wrote:
               | Hydrogen mixed with air has a very wide range of
               | concentrations where it is explosive. It accumulates
               | inside containers or just the roof of the car... where
               | the passengers are. It takes just one lit cigarette for
               | it to go boom.
        
               | jcgrillo wrote:
               | And it burns _really_ hot
        
               | chongli wrote:
               | That's assuming the hydrogen is just loose in the area,
               | like it'd been released from a balloon in a chemistry
               | classroom. That amount of hydrogen is extremely small,
               | from an energy standpoint. Equivalent to a teaspoon of
               | gasoline or so.
               | 
               | If you assume a realistic fuel capacity for a hydrogen
               | vehicle, the hydrogen tank will be both much larger than
               | a gas tank and the hydrogen will be under extreme
               | pressure. A tank like that in your car would be extremely
               | dangerous even if it were filled only with inert gas.
        
           | Rygian wrote:
           | Check out the "Clean Hydrogen Ladder" document.
           | 
           | Hydrogen wastes a large amount of energy.
        
             | cbmuser wrote:
             | Unless you produce it using the Sulfur-Iodine cycle in a
             | high-temperature nuclear reactor.
             | 
             | See:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulfur%E2%80%93iodine_cycle
             | 
             | and: https://www.jaea.go.jp/04/o-arai/nhc/en/research/hydro
             | gen_he...
        
           | SideburnsOfDoom wrote:
           | Hydrogen is the minimum viable atom: one proton, one
           | electron. H2 is a tiny molecule. "hydrogen embrittlement" is
           | when it's small enough to diffuse _into_ solid metal, because
           | it 's that much smaller than iron atoms.
           | 
           | It's hard to work with because of this, and what's the point?
           | For most uses, electricity supply is already everywhere.
        
           | L-four wrote:
           | The cheapest way to make hydrogen is to use fossil fuels.
        
           | loeg wrote:
           | It's hell to store. The energy density is terrible and as a
           | tiny molecule it escapes most seals. When it transitions from
           | a liquid to a gas, it expands manyfold (i.e., explodes).
        
           | ssl-3 wrote:
           | Ignoring some of the other issues:
           | 
           | Imagine we have this electrolysis plant, splitting up water
           | to produce the hydrogen we need for an area. That's fine.
           | 
           | But it needs fed electricity to keep the process going. Lots
           | of it. It needs more electrical power to split the water than
           | combining it again produces.
           | 
           | So it starts off being energy-negative, and it takes serious
           | electricity to make it happen. Our grid isn't necessarily
           | ready for that.
           | 
           | And then we need to transport the hydrogen. Probably with
           | things like trucks and trains at first (but maybe pipelines
           | eventually). This makes it even more energy-negative, and
           | adds having great volumes of this potentially-explosive gas
           | in our immediate vicinity some of the time whether we're
           | using it individually or not.
           | 
           | Or: We can just plug in our battery-cars at home, and skip
           | all that fuel transportation business altogether.
           | 
           | It's still energy-negative, and the grid might not be ready
           | for everyone to do that either.
           | 
           | But at least we don't need to to implement an entirely new
           | kind of scale for hydrogen production and distribution before
           | it can be used.
           | 
           | So that's kind of the way we've been going: We plug out cars
           | into the existing grid and charge them using the same
           | electricity that could instead have been used to produce
           | hydrogen.
           | 
           | (It'd be nice if battery recycling were more common, but it
           | turns out that they have far longer useful lives than anyone
           | reasonably anticipated and it just isn't a huge
           | problem...yet. And that's not a huge concern, really: We
           | already have a profitable and profoundly vast automotive
           | recycling industry. We'll be sourcing lithium from automotive
           | salvage yards as soon as it is profitable to do so.)
        
             | aunty_helen wrote:
             | It's not even the grid, by the time you've done the
             | electrolysis you'd be better off just charging a battery.
             | 
             | Also, compressing and cooling a gas takes another huge hit
             | at the efficiency. Electrolysis comes out at atmospheric
             | pressures.
             | 
             | Oh and the platinum electrodes you need...
             | 
             | I'm also just now visualising a hydrogen pipeline fire...
             | terrible terrible idea.
        
               | ssl-3 wrote:
               | It's the everything, yeah. There's a lot working against
               | using hydrogen as the local energy source for automotive
               | propulsion in the world that we presently have.
               | 
               | Some advantages are that a fuel cell that accepts
               | hydrogen and air at one end and emits electricity and
               | water at the other can be lighter-weight than a big
               | battery, and it can [potentially] be refueled quickly for
               | long trips.
               | 
               | Some disadvantages: We need a compressed hydrogen tank --
               | which isn't as scary to me as it may be for some people,
               | but that's still a new kind of risk we need to carry with
               | us wherever we drive. And we still need a big(ish)
               | battery and the controls for it in order for regen
               | braking to do its thing (which hybrids have shown to be
               | very useful).
               | 
               | And, again, the grid: If it were cheaper/better/efficient
               | to move energy from electrical generating stations to the
               | point of use using buckets [or trucks or trains] of
               | hydrogen, we'd already be doing that. But it isn't. So we
               | just plug stuff in, instead, and use the grid we already
               | have.
               | 
               | A quick Google suggests that a regular 120v US outlet
               | might charge EVs at a rate somewhere in the range of 3 to
               | 5 miles per hour. So a dozen or so hours sitting, plugged
               | in at home every day, is enough to cover most folks'
               | every-day driving. There's far faster methods, but that's
               | something that lots of regular people with a normal
               | commute and normal working hours can already accomplish
               | very easily if they have private parking with an outlet
               | nearby.
               | 
               | For most folks, with most driving, that's all they ever
               | have to do. It shifts concerns about refueling speed from
               | "Yeah, but hydrogen is fast! I waste hardly any time at
               | all while it refills!" to "What refueling stops? I just
               | unplug my car in the morning and go. I haven't needed to
               | stop at gas station in years."
               | 
               | The main advantages of hydrogen are real, but they just
               | aren't very useful compared to other things that we also
               | have.
        
           | nkoren wrote:
           | Zubrin's "Hydrogen Hoax" from 2007[1] is basically an
           | ironclad critique. The physics are inescapably poor, and
           | always will be. (Zubrin makes other points in that article
           | which should probably be taken with more salt, but his
           | critique of hydrogen stands).
           | 
           | 1: https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/the-hydrogen-
           | hoa...
        
         | dehrmann wrote:
         | > Hydrogen is such a terrible idea it was never getting off the
         | ground.
         | 
         | It's coming from Toyota because Toyota can't wrap its head
         | around not making engines. Ironically, the place hydrogen might
         | work is airplanes where the energy density of batteries doesn't
         | work.
        
           | breve wrote:
           | > _It 's coming from Toyota because Toyota can't wrap its
           | head around not making engines._
           | 
           | Of course they can. Toyota sells BEVs. As time goes on BEVs
           | will become a greater percentage of their sales.
        
             | formerly_proven wrote:
             | Toyota sells bad EVs and was the last OEM to offer one.
             | It's the most anti-EV OEM by far and engages/engaged in the
             | most EV FUD.
        
               | Spooky23 wrote:
               | The bZ4X was particularly bad. Toyota adopted a combo of
               | NIH syndrome and DNGAF. They didn't anticipate cold
               | weather. The batteries lost like 30% of their capacity in
               | the cold and the resale value of it tanked.
        
               | aaronbrethorst wrote:
               | They're also just phenomenally ugly cars.
        
               | dcrazy wrote:
               | It shares the same ugly design language as much of
               | Toyota's lineup.
        
               | magicalhippo wrote:
               | > The batteries lost like 30% of their capacity in the
               | cold
               | 
               | Here in Norway Toyota was invited to include the bZ4X in
               | this years winter range test[1], but they declined.
               | Suzuki entered with their eVitara model, which is a
               | "technological twin" of the Toyota Urban Cruiser.
               | 
               | The Urban Cruiser really disappointed in a regular test
               | performed in cold weather[2]. So perhaps unsurprisingly,
               | the Suzuki eVitara was by far the worst in the winter
               | range test, with the least range overall and more than
               | 40% reduction compared to its WLTP range, among the worst
               | in the test.
               | 
               | [1]: https://www.tek.no/nyheter/nyhet/i/d4mMkA/verdens-
               | stoerste-r...
               | 
               | [2]: https://www.tek.no/test/i/OkQAwE/toyota-urban-
               | cruiser
        
               | some-guy wrote:
               | I have only purchased Toyota vehicles (currently in the
               | market for an EV) and it baffles me that Dodge created a
               | Charger in EV form and Toyota hasn't made even an EV
               | Corolla or Camry.
        
               | breve wrote:
               | That's essentially the bZ3. But a Corolla branded BEV
               | will eventually happen:
               | 
               | https://electrek.co/2025/10/13/toyotas-best-selling-car-
               | elec...
        
               | lostlogin wrote:
               | An electric Corolla or Camry is my ultimate. I hate
               | driving.
               | 
               | I want an appliance that just works. The Corolla and
               | Camry were this for petrol.
               | 
               | I love my Leaf but it isn't a Carolla.
               | 
               | What's with the turning circle on the Leaf?
        
               | freetime2 wrote:
               | > it baffles me that Dodge created a Charger in EV form
               | and Toyota hasn't made even an EV Corolla or Camry
               | 
               | Dodge's Charger EV has been a sales flop [1] and pretty
               | much universally panned by critics as something that
               | nobody asked for.
               | 
               | The Camry and Corolla were the best-selling sedan and
               | compact sedan of 2025 [2]. I think this shows that Toyota
               | is listening to what Corolla and Camry drivers want -
               | something inexpensive and reliable to get them to and
               | from work every day without issue.
               | 
               | Some day Toyota will make an EV sedan. I think their 2026
               | bZ Woodland [3] shows that they are starting to figure
               | out how make compelling EVs. And Toyota's EV strategy
               | seems pretty reasonable to me overall - their delays to
               | develop a decent EV don't seem to put them under threat
               | from any legacy automakers. They are being threatened by
               | Chinese EV makers, but so is Tesla - so even a huge head
               | start likely wouldn't have benefited Toyota much either
               | in that regard.
               | 
               | [1] https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a69927938/dodge-
               | charger-da...
               | 
               | [2]
               | https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g64457986/bestselling-
               | cars...
               | 
               | [3] https://arstechnica.com/cars/2026/02/looks-a-lot-
               | like-an-ele...
        
               | freetime2 wrote:
               | > Toyota sells bad EVs
               | 
               | The 2026 bZ Woodland [1] looks pretty nice in my opinion.
               | 
               | [1] https://arstechnica.com/cars/2026/02/looks-a-lot-
               | like-an-ele...
        
               | badc0ffee wrote:
               | And yet they had one of the first hybrids (although not a
               | plug-in hybrid) in the Prius.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | Honda also was early in hybrids, but they like Toyota are
               | also late on EVs.
        
             | dehrmann wrote:
             | The bZ4X? 10+ years after the Nissan Leaf?
        
               | breve wrote:
               | And the bZ3, bZ5, bZ7, bZ3X, bZ Woodland, C-HR+, the
               | Lexus RZ, and soon the Hilux EV:
               | 
               | https://electrek.co/2026/01/09/toyota-electric-pickup-
               | images...
        
               | bdcravens wrote:
               | A list of cars that aren't available for purchase yet
               | doesn't disprove the argument that Toyota is late to the
               | game.
        
               | breve wrote:
               | They are available for purchase.
               | 
               | Toyota is in the game of selling cars. Toyota has been
               | the best selling automaker for the last six years
               | straight.
               | 
               | Toyota had record sales last year:
               | 
               | https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-
               | transportation/toyota...
               | 
               | It's possible that Toyota understands the car business
               | better than you do.
        
               | bdcravens wrote:
               | All of the bz* models you listed are Chinese models, and
               | while the Woodland and C-HR are listed on their US
               | website, they aren't really available for purchase
               | (though I did find _one_ C-HR if I 'm willing to drive
               | 500 miles to buy it). Obviously the world auto market is
               | greater than the US, but the US is the leading market for
               | Toyota in terms of total units sold, so it's odd to me
               | that if I drive to the Toyota dealership 10 minutes from
               | my house, their game of selling cars only leaves me with
               | one model to purchase if I'm committed to buying a BEV.
        
           | satvikpendem wrote:
           | What does this mean? They have electric vehicles too.
        
           | qingcharles wrote:
           | The energy density doesn't work _for now_. Everybody hoping
           | for that breakthrough, and battery aircraft are moving into
           | certain sectors (drone delivery, air taxis etc).
        
             | aunty_helen wrote:
             | One of the trade offs is that engines are actually
             | ridiculously heavy. Compact, extreme high power electric
             | motors are starting to be commercialised. But also, fuel
             | burns so you lose weight as you're flying whereas batteries
             | stay the same.
             | 
             | Electric aviation is interesting but as someone who knows a
             | bit about the industry, biofuels make more sense here.
        
             | Lerc wrote:
             | Structural batteries were supposed to be the solution where
             | the density wasn't so important. I don't really have a good
             | understanding of the ration of fuel weight to structural
             | weight in existing aircraft though.
        
               | nomel wrote:
               | casing is around 25% of the mass of a cylindrical cell,
               | with the rest being actual battery bits that can't have
               | any stresses applied. is 25% weight saving that
               | significant?
        
             | WalterBright wrote:
             | Jet engine and wing efficiency have increased enormously
             | over the last 50 years.
        
               | nandomrumber wrote:
               | With diminishing results.
               | 
               | Turbofans and supercritical airfoils are done to the
               | point of engine manufacturers looking to propfans and
               | alternative materials (carbon fibre) to eke out further
               | efficiencies.
               | 
               | Although carbon fibre has significant down sides.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | I have patented the idea of replacing the nitrogen in the
               | cabin air with helium. I'm waiting for the money to roll
               | in!
        
           | nandomrumber wrote:
           | Has the hydrogen storage problem been solved yet?
           | 
           | Last time I checked it needs to be stored in cryo / pressure
           | vessel and it also leaks _through_ steel and ruins its
           | structural properties in the process.
        
             | dogma1138 wrote:
             | There are some innovation like hydrogen paste but it's not
             | going to be useful for a combustion engine cycle.
        
               | eptcyka wrote:
               | The Mirai does not combust hydrogen.
        
             | idiotsecant wrote:
             | We store hydrogen all the time for industrial processes.
             | It's not some super science, it's just expensive.
        
               | nandomrumber wrote:
               | We do? Where? Using what fabrication technologies.
               | 
               | I've worked mostly in or adjacent to manufacturing and
               | primary industry.
               | 
               | As far as I'm aware, the majority of hydrogen production
               | is use on site, and mostly for ammonia production.
               | 
               | There isn't really much in the way of hydrogen storage
               | and transportation, it's mostly used where it's
               | generated.
               | 
               | And if we use _expensive_ as a proxy for heavy  / energy
               | intensive, which it is in the case of hydrogen, that goes
               | a long way to preclude it from anything like being useful
               | for _transportation_.
        
               | idiotsecant wrote:
               | There is hydrogen all over the place in exactly where
               | you'd expect to see it: petroleum refineries and
               | petrochemical process plants. The metallurgy of handling
               | and storing hydrogen is well understood and has been for
               | a long time. You just have to use alloys resistant to
               | hydrogen embrittlement. Hydrogen is squirrelly - it
               | doesn't like to stay put but you can make it stay put
               | long enough to make it useful.
               | 
               | When you are specifying valving or piping in a refinery
               | one of the big things you have to find out is how much
               | hydrogen is in the process because a _lot_ of stuff in a
               | refinery has at least some hydrogen and it will destroy
               | common alloys.
        
             | cheema33 wrote:
             | > Has the hydrogen storage problem been solved yet?
             | 
             | No. Not for using Hydrogen for transportation. People have
             | been trying to use Hydrogen for transportation for more
             | than 50 years. These people are trying to bend the laws of
             | physics. And there are _a lot_ of con artists in the mix
             | who prey on the gullible. See the convicted fraudster
             | Trevor Milton of Nikola fame.
        
           | Plasmoid wrote:
           | We're actually not that far off.
           | 
           | Right now, liquid fuels have about 10x the energy density of
           | batteries. Which absolutely kills it for anything outside of
           | extreme short hop flights. But electric engines are about 3x
           | more efficient than liquid fuel engines. So now we're only
           | 3x-4x of a direct replacement.
           | 
           | That means we are not hugely far off. Boeing's next major
           | plane won't run on batteries, but the one afterwards
           | definitely will.
        
             | capitainenemo wrote:
             | Well, there's also burning regular fuel in a fuel cell, a
             | FCEV. That doubles the efficiencies over ICE, so I guess
             | that bumps it back up to 8x away?
             | 
             | Given the great energy densities and stability in transport
             | of hydrocarbons, there's already some plants out there
             | synthesising them directly from green sources, so that
             | could be a solution if we don't manage to increase battery
             | densities by another order of magnitude.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | > there's already some plants out there synthesising them
               | directly from green sources
               | 
               | I didn't realize that a "green" carbon atom is different
               | from a regular carbon atom. They both result in CO2 when
               | burned.
        
               | TheSpiceIsLife wrote:
               | And, the two major byproducts of burning hydrocarbons are
               | water and carbon dioxide.
               | 
               | Literally essential plant nutrients, essential for life.
               | 
               | Tangentially related, the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha`apai
               | volcanic eruption ejected so much water vapour in to the
               | upper atmosphere, it was estimated to have ongoing
               | climate forcing effects for up to 10 years.
               | 
               | Water vapour is a stronger greenhouse gas than carbon
               | dioxide.
               | 
               | And we heard _precisely nothing_ about that in the media
               | other than some science specific sources at the time and
               | nothing on an ongoing basis.
               | 
               | From Wikipedia:
               | 
               |  _The underwater explosion also sent 146 million tons of
               | water from the South Pacific Ocean into the stratosphere.
               | The amount of water vapor ejected was 10 percent of the
               | stratosphere 's typical stock. It was enough to
               | temporarily warm the surface of Earth. It is estimated
               | that an excess of water vapour should remain for 5-10
               | years._
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Hunga_Tonga%E2%80%93Hu
               | nga...
        
               | robertjpayne wrote:
               | Please, the media didn't report on this because natural
               | disasters affecting the climate is not controllable by
               | humans and thus doesn't warrant a global effort to
               | address unless it's so large as to be species ending.
               | 
               | Global warming is not fake, there's tons and tons of
               | evidence it is real and the weather is getting more and
               | more extreme as humans continue to burn petrol.
        
               | nandomrumber wrote:
               | Yes, and it doesn't fit the narrative.
               | 
               | We should be moving towards being able to terraform Earth
               | not because of anthropogenic climate forcing, but because
               | one volcano or one space rock could render our atmosphere
               | _overnight_ rather uncomfortable.
               | 
               | You won't find the Swedish Doom Goblin saying anything
               | about _that_.
               | 
               | > burn petrol.
               | 
               | Well yeah, so making electricity unreliable and
               | expensive, and the end-user's problem (residential roof-
               | top solar) is somehow supposed _help_?
               | 
               | Let's ship all our raw minerals and move all our
               | manufacturing overseas to counties that _care less_ about
               | environmental impacts and have dirtier electricity, then
               | ship the final products back, all using the dirties
               | bunker fuel there is.
               | 
               | How is _that_ supposed to _help_?
               | 
               | I mean, I used to work for The Wilderness Society in
               | South Australia, now I live in Tasmania and am a card
               | carrying One Nation member.
               | 
               | Because I'm not a _complete fucking idiot_.
               | 
               | Wait till you learn about the nepotism going on with the
               | proposed Bell Bay Windfarm and Cimitiere Plains Solar
               | projects.
               | 
               | I'm all for sensible energy project development, but
               | there's only so much corruption I'm willing to sit back
               | and watch.
               | 
               | With the amount of gas, coal, and uraniam Australia has,
               | it should be a manufacturing powerhouse, and host a huge
               | itinerant worker population with pathways to residency /
               | citizenship, drawn from the handful of countries that
               | built this country. And citizens could receive a monthly
               | stipend as their share of the enormous wealth the country
               | _should_ be generating.
               | 
               | Japan resells our LNG at a profit. Our government is an
               | embarrassment.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | Natural resources are not required to make a country an
               | economic powerhouse. See Japan, for example. Hong Kong,
               | Taiwan, S Korea.
               | 
               | What's needed are free markets. Any country that wants to
               | become a powerhouse has it within their grasp. Free
               | markets.
        
               | TheSpiceIsLife wrote:
               | And political will.
               | 
               | The Antipodes have such a problem with successful people
               | we even invented a term for it.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tall_poppy_syndrome
               | 
               | On the subject of free markets, Australia excels. We even
               | let foreign entities extract and sell our LNG and pay no
               | royalties and no tax.
               | 
               | https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/zero-royalties-
               | charge...
               | 
               | Doesn't get _any freer than that!_
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | Spain stripped S. America of its gold and silver, and
               | neither Spain nor S. America benefited from it.
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | Also some time after that other guy copied and pasted his
               | canned Hunga remark into his big spreadsheet of climate
               | denial comments the international community of climate
               | scientists concluded that Hunga cooled the atmosphere, on
               | balance.
               | 
               | "As a consequence of the negative TOA RF, the Hunga
               | eruption is estimated to have decreased global surface
               | air temperature by about 0.05 K during 2022-2023; due to
               | larger interannual variability, this temperature change
               | cannot be observed."
               | 
               | https://juser.fz-
               | juelich.de/record/1049154/files/Hunga_APARC...
        
               | nandomrumber wrote:
               | Thanks for linking that document, I'll have a read.
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | Its the time shift. Burning a plant releases CO2 and it
               | is still considered to be carbon neutral.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | Sorry, that's just verbal sleight of hand. There's no
               | such thing as "green" CO2.
        
               | jeffbee wrote:
               | How do you justify exhaling then?
        
               | fc417fc802 wrote:
               | The problem isn't CO2 it's pulling carbon out of
               | geological deposits. Thus the carbon atoms in synthetic
               | fuel can be considered "green" provided an appropriate
               | energy source was used.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | I understand that, but it's a fallacious argument. It's
               | still emitting the same amount of CO2 into the
               | atmosphere.
               | 
               | You can also bury dead trees in a landfill.
        
               | fc417fc802 wrote:
               | The point is that emitting CO2 into the atmosphere was
               | never the problem. Adding geological carbon back into the
               | carbon cycle is the root cause of the entire thing.
               | 
               | You can certainly bury dead trees. I'm not sure how deep
               | you'd need to go to accomplish long term (ie geological
               | timeframe) capture. I somehow doubt the economics work
               | out since what is all the carbon capture research even
               | about given that we could just be dumping bamboo chips
               | into landfills?
        
             | breve wrote:
             | > _Boeing 's next major plane won't run on batteries, but
             | the one afterwards definitely will._
             | 
             | Jet engines work better. Boeing's next major plane will
             | have jet engines, just like their previous major planes.
             | 
             | Synthetic, carbon neutral jet fuel will be the future for
             | commercial jets.
        
             | TheSpiceIsLife wrote:
             | More accurately, the calculation needs to factor in the
             | fact that battery weight doesn't decrease as charge is
             | used.
             | 
             | Commercial aviation's profitability hinges on being able to
             | carry only as much fuel as strictly[1] required.
             | 
             | How can batteries compete with that constraint?
             | 
             | Also, commercial aviation aircraft aren't time-restricted
             | by refuelling requirements. How are batteries going to
             | compete with that? Realistically, a busy airport would need
             | something like a closely located gigawatt scale power plant
             | with multi-gigawatt peaking capacity to recharge multiple
             | 737 / A320 type aircraft simultaneously.
             | 
             | I don't believe energy density parity with jet fuel is
             | sufficient. My back of the neocortex estimate is that
             | battery energy density would need to 10x jet fuel to be of
             | much practical use in the case of narrow-body-and-up
             | airliner usefulness.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | You laid it out better than I. Thank you!
        
               | TheSpiceIsLife wrote:
               | Thanks Walter!
        
               | abdullahkhalids wrote:
               | An A320 can store 24k liters of fuel. Jet fuel stores 35
               | MJ/L. So, the plane carries 8.4E11 J of energy. If that
               | was stored in a battery that had to be charged in an hour
               | 0.23GW of electric power would be required.
               | 
               | So indeed, an airport serving dozens or hundreds of
               | electric aircrafts a day will need obscene amounts of
               | electric energy.
        
               | vardump wrote:
               | Jet engines are not 100% efficient.
               | 
               | Electric motors can be pretty close, 98% is realistic. Of
               | course other parts of the system will lose energy, like
               | conversion losses.
               | 
               | Of course that doesn't mean batteries are currently a
               | viable replacement. One should still take efficiency into
               | account in quick back of the envelope calculations.
        
             | WalterBright wrote:
             | > So now we're only 3x-4x of a direct replacement.
             | 
             | The math leads out an important factor. As the liquid fuel
             | burns, the airplane gets lighter. A lot lighter. Less
             | weight => more range. More like 6x-8x.
             | 
             | Batteries don't get lighter when they discharge.
        
               | giobox wrote:
               | Not to mention that jet planes routinely take off heavier
               | than their max safe landing weight today too, relying on
               | the weight reduction of consuming the fuel to return the
               | plane to a safe landing weight again while enjoying the
               | extra range afforded. This trick doesn't work well with
               | batteries either.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | There isn't any battery technology on the horizon that
               | would lead to practical airliners.
        
               | seanmcdirmid wrote:
               | You could do it with a ground effect plane for inland sea
               | jaunts, like Seattle to Victoria. If you can float, then
               | you don't technically need a huge reserve like is
               | normally needed.
        
               | Qwertious wrote:
               | It's not that simple.
               | 
               | Batteries are inherently more aerodynamic, because they
               | don't need to suck in oxygen for combustion, and because
               | they need less cooling than an engine that heats itself
               | up by constantly burning fuel. You can getv _incredible_
               | gains just by improving motor efficiency - the difference
               | between a 98%-efficient motor and a 99%-efficient motor
               | is the latter requires _half the cooling_. That 's more
               | important than the ~1% increase in mileage.
               | 
               | Also, the batteries are _static weight_ , which isn't as
               | nightmarish as liquid fuel that wants to slosh around in
               | the exact directions you want it not to. Static weight
               | means that batteries can be potentially load-bearing
               | structural parts (and in fact already are, in some EV
               | cars).
               | 
               | The math leaves out a _lot_ of important factors.
        
             | rgmerk wrote:
             | Hmmm. If we do simple extrapolation based on a battery
             | density improvement rate of 5% a year, it takes about 30
             | years to get there. So it's not as crazy as it sounds - and
             | it's also worth noting that there are incremental
             | improvements in aerodynamics and materials so that gets you
             | there faster...
             | 
             | However, as others have pointed out, the battery-powered
             | plane doesn't get lighter as it burns fuel.
        
           | beAbU wrote:
           | The Mirai is a fuel cell EV. There is no engine. Not sure
           | what your point is regarding engines?
        
           | WalterBright wrote:
           | > the place hydrogen might work is airplanes where the energy
           | density of batteries doesn't work.
           | 
           | How is that going to work? Cryogenic liquid hydrogen? High
           | pressure tanks? Those don't seem practical for an airplane.
           | 
           | What does work for airplanes is to use carbon atoms that
           | hydrogen atoms can attach to. Then, it becomes a liquid that
           | can easily be stored at room temperature in lightweight
           | tanks. Very high energy density, and energy per weight!
           | 
           | (I think it's called kerosene.)
        
             | TheSpiceIsLife wrote:
             | Diesel, kerosene, rocket propelled RP1, and fuel oil /
             | bunker fuel in the case of cargo ships.
             | 
             | It's not a coincidence that where easy of handling, storage
             | safety, and high energy density are needed everything seems
             | to converge on compression ignition medium to long chain
             | liquid hydrocarbons.
        
             | saalweachter wrote:
             | What if you just, like, put the hydrogen in a big balloon?
        
           | dev1ycan wrote:
           | They are just too much in bed with big oil to want to switch,
           | instead they spend rnd on hydrogen in order to mess up with
           | renewables on purpose.
        
             | Braxton1980 wrote:
             | Hydrogen only makes electric vehicles look good and the
             | only alternative. In fact, if this purposeful which I
             | doubt, it probably helped stopped other companies from
             | making hydrogen
        
           | Braxton1980 wrote:
           | It might also be because the Japanese government works very
           | hard to have full employment and EVs require less labor.
        
           | hogehoge51 wrote:
           | WTF , you are commenting about FCEV - these things dont have
           | engines!
           | 
           | The strategy clearly stated by Akio Toyoda is multiple power
           | train technology. You can listen to his interviews on the
           | subject, some are in Japanese, but as you have stated a clear
           | and unambiguous interpretation of Toyota's policy I will
           | assume you have that fluency.
           | 
           | (Automotive OEMs are assemblers, the parts come from the
           | supply chain starting with Tier 1 suppliers. In that sense
           | TMC does not do "making engines", but possibly the nuance and
           | consequences here of whether not it "wraps it's head" to
           | "makes things", vs if it has the capability to specify,
           | manufacture distribute something at scale with a globally
           | localized supply chain AND adjust to consumer demand/resource
           | availability changes 5 years after the design start - in this
           | context i ask you, can you "wrap your head" around the latest
           | models that are coming out in every power train technology
           | fcev, (p)hev to bev)
        
             | WarmWash wrote:
             | Toyota has had this hydrogen bug since the early 90's.
             | 
             | What's that old meme?
             | 
             | Stop trying to make ____ happen, it's not going to happen.
        
           | api wrote:
           | Biofuel makes more sense for airplanes. No conversion even
           | necessary. You could fuel up a 737 with properly formulated
           | biofuel and fly it now, though a lot of validation would be
           | needed to be generally allowed especially for passenger
           | flights.
           | 
           | If we want easier to produce biofuels then LNG aviation makes
           | sense. We are flying LNG rockets already. You could go ahead
           | and design LNG planes now and they'd emit less carbon even on
           | fossil natural gas. Existing turbofan jet engines could be
           | retrofitted to burn methane.
           | 
           | Biogas is incredibly easy to make to the point that there are
           | pretty easy designs online for off grid biogas digesters you
           | can use to run a generator. You can literally just turn a
           | barrel upside down in a slightly larger barrel full of water,
           | shit, and food waste, attach a hose to it, and as the inner
           | barrel floats up it fills with biogas under mild pressure
           | that you can plug right into things. May need to dry it for
           | some applications since it might contain some water vapor but
           | that's not hard.
           | 
           | Industrial scale biogas is basically the same principle. Just
           | large scale, usually using sewage and farm waste.
           | 
           | LNG rockets also mean "green" space launch is entirely
           | possible.
        
         | nandomrumber wrote:
         | There _is_ a great way to store, transport, and use hydrogen:
         | 
         | Bind it to various length carbon chains.
         | 
         | When burned as an energy source the two main byproducts are
         | carbon dioxide which is an essential plant growth nutrient, and
         | water which is also essential to plant growth.
         | 
         | Environmentalists will love it!
         | 
         | And they can prise my turbo diesel engines from my cold dead
         | hands.
        
           | mapontosevenths wrote:
           | Carbon Dioxide is a greenhouse gas, which makes the world
           | warmer on average. It also lowers the PH levels of the
           | oceans.
           | 
           | If the oceans die, its very likely that many or even most
           | humans will also. As a human I am pretty strongly opposed to
           | dying, but thats just, like, my opinion man.
        
             | TheSpiceIsLife wrote:
             | Take The Great Barrier Reef for example.
             | 
             | There's more of it now than in the reefs recorded history.
             | 
             | Well, 2022 data:
             | 
             | https://www.aims.gov.au/information-centre/news-and-
             | stories/...
        
               | Braxton1980 wrote:
               | "The picture is complex. Recovery here, fresh losses
               | there.
               | 
               | While the recovery we reported last year was welcome
               | news, there are challenges ahead. The spectre of global
               | annual coral bleaching will soon become a reality."
               | 
               | This article also mentions that a recent large recovery
               | was due to el nino conditions
               | 
               | "Great Barrier Reef was reeling from successive
               | disturbances, ranging from marine heatwaves and coral
               | bleaching to crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks and
               | cyclone damage, with widespread death of many corals
               | especially during the heatwaves of 2016 and 2017.
               | 
               | Since then, the Reef has rebounded. Generally cooler La
               | Nina conditions mean hard corals have recovered
               | significant ground, regrowing from very low levels after
               | a decade of cumulative disturbances to record high levels
               | in 2022 across two-thirds of the reef."
               | 
               | Not sure if you were trying to imply some long term
               | recovery or that global warming didn't hurt it because
               | the article says heatwaves were part of a many other
               | conditions that caused massive damage
        
               | nandomrumber wrote:
               | No one ever attract public support and funding by saying:
               | 
               |  _Don't Panic._
               | 
               |  _Everything is O.K._
               | 
               | ---
               | 
               | Edited to add: Rate limited so can't reply without
               | creating more alt accounts than I'm willing to, so:
               | 
               | @Timon3 - that's actually a really good point, and I
               | follow at least a few folk that could be categorised as
               | such at least some of the time.
        
               | Timon3 wrote:
               | No, many people say exactly that and make a lot of money
               | doing so while also telling us that all the evidence is
               | fake.
        
               | mapontosevenths wrote:
               | Trump asked for a billion. [0] He didn't get the whole
               | billion (as far as we know), but he's keeping up his end
               | of the deal.
               | 
               | [0] https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/09/trump-asks-
               | oil-exec...
        
               | mapontosevenths wrote:
               | Bad news, there has been a fourth great bleaching event
               | going on since January of 23. This time 80+% of all reefs
               | have been impacted and the consensus seems to be that its
               | unlikely there will be any reefs left at all before too
               | long.
               | 
               | https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/13/coral
               | -re...
        
               | TheSpiceIsLife wrote:
               | Yes yes, The Sky Is Falling(tm).
               | 
               | All the more reason to give our ounce great nation away
               | to _fuck wits_ who think shooting up Jews is a reasonable
               | idea, making electricity expensive chasing a target that
               | will have approximately no impact on global carbon
               | emissions and further drive manufacturing out of the
               | country, all the while making even my generation
               | (Xillenials) worse off now than we were ten years ago.
               | 
               | Young people and the working poor? They can freeze in the
               | dark on the streets, _fuck them_.
               | 
               | Turn up unannounced and utter the shibboleth _asylum
               | seeker_ and we roll out the red carpet. Low interest
               | loans so they can start businesses, and priory social
               | housing. _Fuck the locals_.
               | 
               | And you _cum guzzlers_ keep voting for _more of it_.
               | 
               | There's only so much ideology we can take. Check One
               | Nations recently polling.
               | 
               | I'm encouraging young people to get in to the trades,
               | especially brick laying and masonry because if things
               | keep going they way they are...
               | 
               |  _We're going to need more walls._
               | 
               | Know what I'm sayin'.
        
               | Intermernet wrote:
               | I think you've been listening to the wrong people. That's
               | a whole lot of dog whistles in that screed.
        
               | TheSpiceIsLife wrote:
               | Right, don't address the substance of the message, just
               | drive-by-dismiss the concerns of a growing segment of
               | voters.
               | 
               | My comment you responded to didn't happen overnight.
               | 
               | You're welcome to go through my comment history and
               | address my concerns as detailed over the previous
               | thirteen years, many of which are much more level headed
               | and many contain references to thinkers much more
               | intelligent and way more eloquent than anything I'll ever
               | write.
        
               | itishappy wrote:
               | Yes yes, The Sky Is Falling(tm). :)
        
               | TheSpiceIsLife wrote:
               | Haha! Yeah, embarrassing to say that then go on to write
               | that screed.
               | 
               | Time for a top-up!
        
               | mapontosevenths wrote:
               | > Know what I'm sayin'.
               | 
               | I do, and if I were you I would stop to think about your
               | priors. You have stacked an awful lot of ideas on top of
               | each other to build a world view that has lies,
               | misinformation, and unsound science at the base of it.
               | Worse, a lot of it is selfish, but in a way that only
               | works if the entire global economy is a zero sum game.
               | Enlightened self-interest can be right, and even noble,
               | but only if you know the game well enough to comprehend
               | why altruism is still important, and you don't. The world
               | is NOT a zero sum game, and this kind of self-interest is
               | the bad kind.
               | 
               | Some of the logic at the top of your pyramid would be
               | sound, if the bottom wasn't a pile of mush. A few minor
               | points:
               | 
               | 1) Solar is (far) cheaper than fossil fuel's now (for net
               | new electricity). It's been that way for awhile now, but
               | one particular bubble tries really hard to stop people
               | from learning that. If cost is your concern you should be
               | pushing for more solar, and less of the fuel you
               | literally set fire to and have to keep digging up forever
               | until it runs out.
               | 
               | 2) Giving money to hostile Arab nations who hate you is
               | not going to stop anyone from "took 'er jorbs"ing you. In
               | fact, you would have more money if your car didn't
               | literally burn your money constantly and also require
               | expensive oil changes and other maintenance constantly.
               | 
               | 3) Pretty much everything you said about loans and
               | housing is based on absolute fabrications, or extreme
               | exaggerations. Even if it weren't, other people receiving
               | assistance doesn't actually cost you anything. The
               | national debt has INCREASED at a record pace under Trump,
               | exactly as it does during every Republican presidency,
               | and it's not because Trump loves helping people so much.
               | 
               | Republican presidents have added about $1.4 trillion per
               | four-year term, compared to $1.2 trillion added by
               | Democrats since 1913. During my lifetime there has never
               | been a Republican president who was fiscally conservative
               | in the slightest. Trump is somehow making it worse while
               | also letting children starve thanks to cutting USAID.
               | 
               | 4) There's nothing wrong with the trades, if your body
               | can physically handle it for 40-50 years. It's good and
               | honest work, and we need more folks to go into them. It's
               | also likely to be more stable and less demanding than the
               | kind of work most of us here do.
               | 
               | 5) Why in the hell would anyone WANT the manufacturing
               | jobs? The only reasons humans have them is that humans
               | (in some places) are cheaper than robots. Robots are
               | getting cheaper every day. Moving them here will get us a
               | few (even richer) billionaires. Not more jobs (at least
               | not the kind you're probably thinking of). It will also
               | increase the cost of ALL THE THINGS.
               | 
               | The worst part of this mistake is that while normal
               | people spend most of their money billionaires spend only
               | a miniscule fraction of their income. Billionaire money
               | just idles non-productively most of the time, or is
               | engaged in parasitic interest gathering via obscure
               | financial instruments. Giving money to billionaires is
               | kind of like throwing it in the garbage. Giving it to the
               | middle class is good for everyone, because they buy
               | things and drive demand.
               | 
               | Lastly, I'm also a Xennial, and I have to say that I'm
               | better off now than 10 years ago. Maybe I just made
               | better choices?
               | 
               | Either way, drink plenty of water before bed. It will
               | help with the hangover in the morning.
        
               | TheSpiceIsLife wrote:
               | [delayed]
        
             | badc0ffee wrote:
             | Factually correct, but you also missed the joke.
        
               | idiotsecant wrote:
               | It was only _kinda_ a joke. It 's a joke in the same way
               | that uncle on Facebook makes jokes. You know the one.
        
             | bobthepanda wrote:
             | The major problem with hydrocarbons today is that we are
             | releasing carbon dioxide stored hundreds of millions of
             | years ago.
             | 
             | If, theoretically, you could produce hydrocarbons from the
             | carbon dioxide that is currently in our atmosphere, then it
             | could be a substantial reduction in net carbon dioxide
             | being added; and it would be compatible with the fuel
             | infrastructure of today.
        
               | thrownthatway wrote:
               | What must have been the composition of the atmosphere all
               | those hundreds of millions of years ago for all that
               | carbon dioxide to have been removed from the atmosphere
               | and sequestered as biological matter, to then be buried
               | and reacted to form vast quantities of hydrocarbons.
               | 
               | The bind moggles.
        
               | mapontosevenths wrote:
               | Your mind should boggle. It's all pretty amazing.
               | 
               | 2.5 billion years ago the earth would have been
               | uninhabitable to most modern life. Single celled life
               | evolved in those conditions and began creating glucose
               | and oxygen from CO2 and water. When those primitive
               | lifeforms died some of them became oil and the CO2 was
               | sequestered.
               | 
               | Over time the CO2 levels dropped until about 20 million
               | years ago the CO2 levels fell to about 300ppm. That's
               | when life as we know it really took off. Yes, it took
               | BILLIONS of years to get there.
               | 
               | Humans have only existed for about 200k years. During
               | that time our CO2 levels have mostly been below about
               | 280ppm. The are now at 429ppm and are rising
               | exponentially. [0]
               | 
               | [0] https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2
        
               | thrownthatway wrote:
               | What role, if any, did carbonate mineral formation have
               | in sequestering carbon dioxide from the atmosphere?
        
             | dredmorbius wrote:
             | It's possible to synthesise hydrocarbon analogues of
             | petroluem-based fuels. The problem to date has been that
             | this isn't cost-competitive with petroleum, though the
             | difference is narrower than you might expect. Most
             | famously, a Google X Project attempted this and succeeded
             | technically, but the economics were unfavourable: Project
             | Foghorn: <https://x.company/projects/foghorn/>. Both
             | Germany and South Africa have performed synfuel production
             | (from coal) at industrial scale since the 1930s / 1950s,
             | respectively. Using non-fossil carbon is largely the same
             | chemistry; the process _does_ in fact scale.
             | 
             | Fischer-Tropsch and Sabatier process can both operate with
             | scavenged CO2. There's been some work since the 1990s
             | utilising seawater as a CO2 source, with CO2 capture being
             | far more efficient than from atmospheric sources.
             | 
             | Whilst hydrocarbons have numerous downsides (whether
             | sourced from fossil or renewable sources), they are also
             | quite convenient, exceedingly well-proven, and tremendously
             | useful. In some applications, particularly marine and
             | aviation transport, there are few if any viable
             | alternatives.
             | 
             | I've commented on this numerous times at HN over the years:
             | <https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&
             | qu...>.
        
           | ViewTrick1002 wrote:
           | The problem is all the effort = energy you need to spend
           | collecting carbon atoms.
        
         | foota wrote:
         | > Hydrogen is such a terrible idea it was never getting off the
         | ground.
         | 
         | See: the Hindenburg disaster
         | 
         | afternote: There's the potential for an amazing pun in here,
         | but I don't think I quite did the opportunity justice.
        
           | AngryData wrote:
           | Ehh, the Hindenburg had a flammable skin. Barrage balloons
           | from the World Wars were most often filled with hydrogen and
           | yet were extremely difficult to ignite or take down even with
           | purpose build incindiary ammo for that purpose shows hydrogen
           | balloons can be safe. Often they would be riddled with dozens
           | of holes but still take many hours for them to lose enough
           | hydrogen to float back down to the ground.
           | 
           | The only real downsides are slow travel speed and
           | vulnerability to extreme storms since there arent many places
           | to put it with a large enough hanger even with days of
           | warning beforehand.
        
             | cyberax wrote:
             | That's because regular bullets are actually pretty cold,
             | especially by the time they reach the height of anti-air
             | balloons.
             | 
             | But hydrogen itself is SCARY. It has an extremely wide
             | range of ignitable concentrations, and it has very low
             | ignition energy. It also tends to leak through ~everything.
        
               | AngryData wrote:
               | But hydrogen is also so easy to produce on demand that
               | you can design your balloon to be at small positive
               | pressure all the time and always leaks outwards into the
               | open air. If oxygen is allowed to leaked in undetected,
               | yeah that's a death trap. The same if hydrogen leaked
               | into semi contained oxygen enclosures. But leaking
               | through the skin of the balloon to open sky even with
               | decent size holes and a bit of positive pressure doesn't
               | ignite particularly well, despite hydrogen's wide range
               | of ignition conditions.
               | 
               | It is not such a fool proof technology that everybody
               | should have one, but to me building and operating a
               | hydrogen balloon isn't dissimilar to running a steam
               | locomotive. It can be dangerous if done badly or
               | incorrectly, but it can also be done safely with pretty
               | well known and understood technologies and methods and
               | practices. And considering the massive efficiency of
               | lighter-than-air transport I find it hard to dismiss its
               | potential even so long after their heyday and previous
               | problems.
        
           | beAbU wrote:
           | Pointing to the Hindenburg as an example of why hydrogen is a
           | bad idea is the same as pointing to Chernobyl as an example
           | of why nuclear is a bad idea.
           | 
           |  _wait..._
        
         | belorn wrote:
         | People looked at how the cost of wind and solar went down and
         | made a assumption that green hydrogen would follow. The
         | reasoning was that the cost of green hydrogen was energy, and
         | thus at some point green hydrogen would be too cheap to meter.
         | 
         | The whole energy plan of central/northen Europe, especially
         | Germany, was built for the last several decades on the idea
         | that they would combine wind, solar and cheap natural gas and
         | then replace the natural gas part with green hydrogen. In
         | Sweden there were even several municipalities that spear headed
         | this by switching mass transportation and heating towards
         | hydrogen, initially with hydrogen produced through natural gas,
         | as a way to get ahead on this plan.
         | 
         | The more sensible project were the green steel project. As
         | experts in green hydrogen said consistently said through those
         | decades, is that green steel would be the real test to make
         | green hydrogen economical. The economics of burning it for
         | energy or transportation would come several decades later, if
         | ever. The green steel project however has not ended up as
         | planned and gotten severely delayed and has seen a cost
         | increase by an estimated 10x. municipalities are now giving up
         | the hydrogen infrastructure and giving it an early retirement,
         | as maintenance costs was significantly underestimated. There is
         | very little talk now about replacing natural gas with green
         | hydrogen, and the new plan is instead to replace the natural
         | gas with bio fuels, hinted at carbon capture, at some
         | unspecified time.
        
           | aunty_helen wrote:
           | Good context. It's a shame none of these people did high
           | school chemistry.
           | 
           | I do remember there being some news about the steel manf.
           | 
           | I wonder if further advancements in rocketry are adding H2
           | tech that could help us manage the difficulties of dealing
           | with the stuff. It still only makes sense in very specific
           | circumstances. Like when you need energy in tank form.
           | 
           | But I think battery / biofuel is the future.
        
           | throwaway473825 wrote:
           | Sweden has very little natural gas in its energy mix:
           | 
           | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-consumption-by-
           | sou...
           | 
           | I highly doubt that hydrogen heating was ever considered.
           | It's usually pushed by the gas lobby (since most hydrogen
           | comes from gas), and Sweden doesn't have a strong gas lobby.
        
           | jacquesm wrote:
           | That was _extremely_ stupid of them then. Hydrogen has been
           | very good at one thing: subsidy extraction. But I don 't
           | think it was or ever will be a viable fuel for planetary
           | transportation.
        
           | scraptor wrote:
           | The idea was to transition from coal to natural gas while
           | using solar and wind to reduce fuel consumption, thereby
           | significantly reducing CO2 emissions. Any claims of hydrogen
           | being burned were either lies to the public to get the gas
           | plants built despite the non-green optics or lies to
           | investors as part of a fraud scheme.
        
           | dotancohen wrote:
           | I had to Google what is green hydrogen. It is hydrogen
           | produced by electrolysis.
           | 
           | If you've already got the electricity for electrolysis, would
           | it not be more efficient and mechanically simpler to store it
           | in a battery and power an electric motor?
        
             | overfeed wrote:
             | Before the introduction of 800V charging architectures,
             | long charge-time for EVs was a big con. Hydrogen Cell
             | vehicles were supposed to be EVs with drastically faster
             | fill-up times. The tradeoff was more complex delivery
             | infrastructure.
        
             | somat wrote:
             | I think that is the way it is headed. But you never know.
             | Sometimes when comparing it helps me to reduce these things
             | down to lower levels.
             | 
             | What is a battery? A chemical cell to store hydrogen and
             | oxygen(true, it does not "have" to be hydrogen and oxygen
             | but it usually is) to later get energy out of. For example
             | lead-acid(stores the oxygen in the lead-sulfate plates and
             | the hydrogen the the sulfuric acid liquid) or nickle-
             | metal(charges into separate oxygen and hydrogen compounds,
             | discharges into water) the lithium cell replaces hydrogen
             | with lithium. Consider a pure hydrogen, oxygen fuel-cell,
             | it could be run in reverse(charged) to get the hydrogen and
             | oxygen and run forward(discharged) to get electricity out
             | of it. So it is a sort of battery, a gas battery. Gas
             | batteries are generally a bad idea, mainly because they
             | have to be so big. Much time and effort is spent finding
             | liquids that can undergo the oxidation/reduction reactions
             | at a reasonable temperature. But now consider that there is
             | quite a bit of oxygen in the air, if we did not have to
             | store the oxygen our battery could be much more efficient,
             | This is the theory behind free-air batteries. But what if
             | our battery did not have to run at a reasonable
             | temperature. We could then use a heat engine to get the
             | energy out. And thus the Mirai. They are shipping half of
             | the charged fluid to run in a high temperature reaction
             | with the other half(atmospheric oxygen) to drive a heat
             | engine that provides motive power.
             | 
             | As opposed to having the customer run the full chemical
             | plant to charge and store the charged fluids to run in a
             | fuel cell to turn a electric motor for motive power.
             | Honestly they are both insane in their own way. But
             | shipping high energy fluids tend to have better energy
             | density. Perhaps the greatest problem in this case is that
             | it is in gaseous form(not very dense) so has no real
             | advantage. Unfortunately one of the best ways to retain
             | hydrogen in a liquid form is carbon.
        
             | Manuel_D wrote:
             | The value proposition of hydrogen is energy density.
             | Batteries have low energy per unit of volume and awful
             | energy density by unit of mass. You will never, ever, fly
             | across the Pacific on a battery powered aircraft.
             | Transoceanic shipping is also not feasible with batteries
             | (current and proposed battery powered shopping lanes are
             | short hops of a couple hundred kilometers or less).
        
               | dotancohen wrote:
               | The Toyota Mirai is a passenger vehicle, not an airplane
               | nor a transatlantic container ship.
        
             | rswail wrote:
             | Green hydrogen is a way to _ship_ solar power elsewhere
             | that doesn 't have it, similar to a battery, but with the
             | advantage of being able to be piped/pumped/liquified etc.
        
         | dmix wrote:
         | > When people go out of their way to avoid common sense they
         | should be punished.
         | 
         | Sounds like it was mostly just people reacting to government
         | incentives. Subsidized markets acting irrational.
        
           | aunty_helen wrote:
           | Politicians are conduits. Someone wanted this to happen.
           | 
           | But yea, subsidies. I've been on many a call where "there's
           | govt funding available if we shape this like x" is one of the
           | major selling points.
        
             | dmix wrote:
             | Politics has a habit of being very insular once elections
             | are finished.
             | 
             | There will always be a strong belief in artificially
             | changing market behaviour by simply throwing money at it
             | and hoping it sticks. When the money dries up the public
             | tends to go back to "what's practical and affordable?".
        
         | HPsquared wrote:
         | Synthetic fuels (including hydrogen) do still make a lot of
         | sense for heavy stuff like trucks, buses or trains, and
         | aircraft where the energy density is a big plus. Those are
         | where you'd expect to see hydrogen take off first, not
         | passenger cars. Same as how diesel started in trucks -
         | expensive engines but economical when amortized and worth it
         | for heavy usage applications.
         | 
         | If they couldn't crack those areas, no chance in the highly
         | competitive passenger car space.
        
           | aunty_helen wrote:
           | Trucks and busses would be better off with battery swaps at
           | depo like electric forklifts do. More mileage more towing
           | weight for trucks, just stack more batteries. Overweight? Use
           | a diesel.
           | 
           | Trains is an easy one, over head lines.
           | 
           | Aircraft, I think short distance trips <1hr maybe otherwise
           | biofuel. Likely we'll see biofuels widely used by 2040.
           | Electric motors on a 777, I'm not sure.
        
         | jjtheblunt wrote:
         | > When people go out of their way to avoid common sense they
         | should be punished.
         | 
         | This is the most ridiculous assertion i've seen today. You'd
         | shut down science, for example, and innovation in general.
        
         | laughing_man wrote:
         | >When people go out of their way to avoid common sense they
         | should be punished.
         | 
         | You could say the same about EVs. Most people in the US who
         | bought an EV decided to go back to ICE for their next vehicle.
        
         | rswail wrote:
         | Green hydrogen makes sense as a way to _ship_ solar power to
         | places that don 't have it.
         | 
         | Using it as a car fuel only makes sense as an interim step to
         | full renewable/EVs.
         | 
         | Internal combustion engines, no matter what the fuel, are way
         | more complicated than electric motors. Doesn't matter how you
         | slice and dice the argument.
        
         | thewhitetulip wrote:
         | With solar/wind oligarchs can't charge you every time you
         | charge your EV at home
         | 
         | Hydrogen was meant to replace Oil so that the oligarchs can
         | keep their oligarchy rather than "pull themselves up by
         | bootstraps"
        
       | retired wrote:
       | Cheapest second generation Mirai I could find is EUR9950
       | including VAT. It has scuffs all-round but no major or structural
       | damage. Only 103k km.
       | 
       | This was a EUR71,000 car four years ago. That is 86% of the value
       | gone. And you were driving around on very expensive hydrogen
       | (compared to diesel and BEV).
        
         | vel0city wrote:
         | > And you were driving around on very expensive hydrogen
         | 
         | That original owner was probably doing all those miles on the
         | free hydrogen given by Toyota.
        
       | alexose wrote:
       | I've always been fascinated with these things. Is there any way
       | to make your own H2 to fuel them? I suspect the purity
       | requirements are too high for at-home electrolysis...
        
       | empathy_m wrote:
       | At one point recently the Mirai came with a fuel incentive
       | program: when you buy the car, Toyota gives you a gift card worth
       | $15,000 towards fuel at hydrogen stations.
       | 
       | An interesting second part of the program was that if you live
       | near a hydrogen station but it's broken, Toyota will instead
       | reimburse a rental car and gas for the rental, one week at a time
       | but presumably for as long the hydrogen fuel station remains
       | broken.
        
         | kccqzy wrote:
         | $15,000 worth of fuel card sounds generous until you find that
         | hydrogen stations have jacked up prices to $36/kg.
        
           | smcin wrote:
           | Full tank capacity of a Mirai is ~5 kg / (120 liters in
           | volume).
        
           | stbtrax wrote:
           | still means nothing, what is the mileage or $/mi there?
        
             | ErroneousBosh wrote:
             | Apparently 1kg of hydrogen is about 60 miles range, which
             | seems like a lot, but apparently fuel cells are that good.
             | 
             | Currently hydrogen fuel if you can get it is about 15 quid
             | a kilo in the UK, giving a tank range of around 400 miles
             | for PS80. This makes it a little more expensive than
             | diesel, considerably more expensive than petrol, and
             | roughly the same price as electric.
             | 
             | By comparison Autogas LPG is around 92p/litre (or about
             | PS1.80 per kilo) and in a very large heavy 4.6 litre Range
             | Rover you get around 250-300 miles for your PS80 tankful,
             | depending on how heavy your right foot is.
        
               | foota wrote:
               | > This makes it a little more expensive than diesel,
               | considerably more expensive than petrol, and roughly the
               | same price as electric
               | 
               | Is electric charging more expensive in the UK than
               | petrol? That's nuts.
        
               | michaelt wrote:
               | According to [1] it breaks down like this:
               | 
               | EV at rapid/ultra-rapid chargers: 25p/mile
               | 
               | Petrol, diesel: 15p/mile
               | 
               | EV charging at home: 8p/mile
               | 
               | This is because there's a government price cap on _home_
               | electricity, but not on _commercial_ electricity - and
               | rapid chargers are all commercial (and of course for-
               | profit).
               | 
               | [1] https://www.rac.co.uk/drive/electric-
               | cars/charging/electric-...
        
               | stoneman24 wrote:
               | If you can get a cheap electric overnight home charging
               | tariff in the UK, then the electric cost is lower. Mid
               | week, I charged 43kWh for the cost of PS3.04 (7p per
               | kWh). My home charger does 7kwh in a hour. Usual mileage
               | is about 4 miles per kWh (typical rush hour drive into
               | Edinburgh). That should give me about 170 miles of range.
               | 
               | Scaling it to 400 miles (400 miles at 4 miles per kWh is
               | 100 kWh which at 7p each is about PS7. Pretty much an
               | order of magnitude better than your estimate. I admit
               | home charging is the best arrangement and I am fortunate
               | to have it. I did a holiday trip to the highlands and
               | used public/hotel chargers which were closer to your
               | numbers but also much faster (up to 150kWh per hour
               | capacity).
               | 
               | I think that even discounting hydrogen engineering
               | difficulties, the infrastructure for electric is pretty
               | much in place and the race of the technologies is over.
        
         | newyankee wrote:
         | I think a few people were expecting the same cost curves that
         | happened with batteries to happen with hydrogen but it seems
         | the challenges are more difficult to overcome. Otherwise I
         | think a Solar PV plant combined with Captive hydrogen
         | production for refuelling on major highways sounds interesting,
         | at least in countries like US, Australia etc. I believe this is
         | not just about PEM or AEM electrolyser or specific tech, it
         | never got the scaling boost.
         | 
         | Ironically the stack comprising fuel cells of different types
         | is possibly very well studied since decades.
         | 
         | For me the Wells to wheel efficiency never made hydrogen
         | worthwhile for short to medium distances and this battle is
         | effectively over.
        
           | _aavaa_ wrote:
           | Forget the type of electrolyzer, even if they were free
           | hydrogen would still be expensive. The challenges with
           | hydrogen getting cheaper are thermodynamic and can't be
           | innovated around. The amount of energy required to
           | electrolyze water simply cannot drop by 10x.
           | 
           | The other difficulties (low energy density, ability to leak
           | through many materials, massive explosion risks, near-
           | invisible flames, etc., etc.) are all inherent to H2 as a
           | molecule.
        
       | whatever1 wrote:
       | Not that much worse than an ev.
        
         | vel0city wrote:
         | Used models for my five year old EV are still selling for ~50%
         | of what I paid for, so no, its far worse than most EVs.
        
       | sksasi wrote:
       | A full tank would cost $200 for about 300-350 mile range.
        
       | oceanplexian wrote:
       | If you think depreciation on a few cars is bad wait until you
       | find out how many hundreds of millions taxpayers spent to build
       | hydrogen stations for cars that don't exist.
       | 
       | At least it's not as blatant of a green energy scam as the high
       | speed rail to nowhere. In this case they actually built a few
       | stations that worked.
        
       | stevenhubertron wrote:
       | Cars are not investments.
        
         | 1970-01-01 wrote:
         | Depends on the car. Some are so special they will have a better
         | ROI than your retirement plan.
         | 
         | https://www.myartbroker.com/investing/articles/top-10-most-i...
        
       | dehrmann wrote:
       | It's got the EV problem, but 100x worse. No only do you have to
       | worry about where to find a place to refuel, there are _far_
       | fewer of them, and level 1 charging isn 't a fallback. It also
       | doesn't have the EV upsides.
        
       | some-guy wrote:
       | I lived a block away from a hydrogen fuel station in Oakland, and
       | in the ten years I was there I maybe saw two different Mirais use
       | it.
        
       | swifferfan wrote:
       | Obligatory paper - Does a Hydrogen Economy Make Sense? (2006)
       | 
       | https://alpha.chem.umb.edu/chemistry/ch471/evans%20files/Pro...
       | 
       | Nothing fundamental has changed in the last 2 decades to refute
       | the arguments Bossel made in 2006.
        
       | dizhn wrote:
       | According to some youtube (doomer) videos I watched a lot of EVs
       | and luxury cars also had this kind of depreciation lately.
        
       | GregDavidson wrote:
       | This technology is completely amazing - for large fleet vehicles
       | like buses, trucks, ferries, etc. Also airplanes! Getting this so
       | compact and refined is a technological miracle. Now put it where
       | it fits!
        
         | throwaway473825 wrote:
         | Buses are already largely electric (with the US as a notable
         | exception), and trucks are quickly getting there:
         | 
         | https://www.electrive.com/2026/01/23/year-end-surge-electric...
         | 
         | Meanwhile, hydrogen trucks are nowhere to be found...
        
       | seltzered_ wrote:
       | Theres something clickbaity and missing from this article, I
       | encourage watching youtubers like 'mirai club' for better info.
       | What i recall from his videos is:
       | 
       | - The Mirai made financial sense AS A LEASE for folks in Southern
       | California back in 2022 (possibly 2023) because:
       | - Car prices in general (including EVs) were fairly highly priced
       | at the time due to demand, the chip shortage, etc.            -
       | There were clean vehicle incentives to get a Toyota Mirai,
       | including things like a hydrogen fuel fill up card to cover
       | expenses.            - At the time there was some assumptions
       | that hydrogen fuel costs would go down over time, but they
       | actually went up.
       | 
       | Again, I suspect most folks LEASED the Mirai due to it being a
       | very niche car with limited usage outside of california due to
       | the lack of hydrogen fuel stations. Youre now seeing some viral
       | videos on the ultra low cost used Mirai's showing up in states
       | that dont have hydrogen infrastructure due to some odd car dealer
       | auction buys (Transport Evolved has a youtube video on this.)
       | 
       | The article does talk about the lack of investment in hydrogen
       | infrastructure, this is true and theres been a huge split between
       | _announced_ infrastructure investments and what has actually
       | happened (see
       | https://bsky.app/profile/janrosenow.bsky.social/post/3labfzi...
       | for a chart going through 2021-2024). The current US political
       | situation and its impact on clean energy probably doesn't help
       | either.
        
         | jjtheblunt wrote:
         | The Mirai was _only_ available as a lease, back in the 2018
         | timeframe anyway, in Southern California.
        
         | haneul wrote:
         | There were also really good financing deals during Covid. Net
         | for me after all costs after resale was $1k for the years I
         | owned the car (the 2nd gen).
         | 
         | But I got in near the bottom and got out before the market for
         | it dumped.
        
       | HoldOnAMinute wrote:
       | The last time I checked local ads, they were giving these cars
       | away free, and you could get a tax deduction. They were paying
       | you to take it.
        
       | pazimzadeh wrote:
       | This article is too long because it's written by a llm
        
       | jacquesm wrote:
       | You only see Mirais within spitting distance of the one place
       | where they can tank. The network just isn't developed to the
       | point that owning one of these makes any sense at all.
        
       | cryptoegorophy wrote:
       | Sorry. EVs won.
        
       | decryption wrote:
       | I'm surprised it's only 65%. There's hardly anywhere to fuel
       | these things up and the price of hydrogen isn't exactly a
       | bargain.
        
       | bitmasher9 wrote:
       | Hydrogen fuel solves a long term strategic problem for Japan,
       | which is why the Mirai got as far as it did.
       | 
       | Japan imports energy. They have to be very careful about which
       | type of energy they build infrastructure for, because they must
       | pay to import that type of energy for decades or centuries. (LNG
       | vs Coal use very different equipment) This is specifically a
       | strategic problem for Japan compared to other energy importers
       | because they both use a lot of energy, and don't have a military
       | option to secure a foreign supply.
       | 
       | Hydrogen fuel could be created by almost any energy source and
       | then used just like any other fuel source. Ideally Japan would
       | like to pay energy exporters to convert their energy to Hydrogen
       | so Japan has maximum flexibility when importing energy.
       | 
       | Projects like the Mirai exist as proof of concepts for Hydrogen,
       | and the United States was never going to be an early widespread
       | adopter of this technology.
        
         | alephnerd wrote:
         | ^^^ This.
         | 
         | But Japan has also been heavily investing in solid state
         | batteries, whose supply chain Idemetsu Kosan and Toyota have
         | begun to productionize [0].
         | 
         | The Japanese government made a decision in the early 2000s to
         | make a dual-pronged bet on Hydrogen and solid-state battery
         | chemistry because they lacked the supply chain and a legal
         | method to access IP for lithium ion batteries.
         | 
         | On the other hand, Samsung and LG got the license for Li-On
         | back during the NMC days, and BYD was able to piggyback on
         | Samsung and Berkshire's IP access when both took growth equity
         | stakes in BYD decades ago.
         | 
         | Another reason that _a lot_ of people overlook is the Hydrogen
         | supply chain overlaps heavily with the supply chain needed to
         | domestically produce nitrogen-fixing fertilizers which is
         | heavily concentrated in a handful of countries (especially
         | Russia with whom Japan has had a border dispute with since the
         | end of WW2) [1].
         | 
         | [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/idemitsu-
         | build-pi...
         | 
         | [1] - https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/impacts-and-repercussions-
         | pric...
        
       | killingtime74 wrote:
       | I went to the Toyota museum where they actually have one of these
       | cars as a cross section. I would never drive one. It's like
       | driving around with a massive bomb under the rear seat. Forget
       | thermal runway from batteries, I wonder how big the crater of the
       | explosion from one these would be.
        
         | sandworm101 wrote:
         | Safer than liquid fuel. There are videos out there of what a
         | leak+fire looks like on a hydrogen and gasoline car. You would
         | rather be trapped in the hydrogen car.
         | 
         | https://youtu.be/OA8dNFiVaF0
        
       | m463 wrote:
       | It's really simple.
       | 
       | 1 Kg of hydrogen is SUPER EXPENSIVE (equivalent ~ 1 gallon of
       | gas)
       | 
       | $17/gallong when I looked at the pumps
       | 
       | When the Mirai first came out, owners didn't care because the
       | fuel was free.
       | 
       | But after that ended, they had to buy it for themselves.
       | 
       | who wants to pay that?
       | 
       | (also, stations weren't plentiful like EV chargers, and even
       | though you could fill up faster than an EV charge, who cares when
       | you can't go very far (distance-wise from home).
        
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