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#Post#: 24426--------------------------------------------------
0.3% ΞΑΝΑΕΠΕΣΕ ]
2;Ο CFR TOY COVID!!!
By: ΛΧΑ Date: March 24, 2
020, 2:36 pm
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Παραθέτω
άρθρο, το
οποίο βρήκα
σε
ιστοσελίδα
mainstream ευρείας
κυκλοφορία`
2;,
στο οποίο
μας
πληροφορού_
7;
ότι το
πραγματικό CFR
του ιού
είναι 0.3% και
ότι οι
Ιταλοί του
βγάζουν στο
ταβάνι
γιατί
μετράνε
τους όσους
πηγαίνουν
στο
νοσοκομείο
με διαβήτη,
καρδιά κτλ
και
παθαίνουν
λοίμωξη από
covid (ενημερώνω
ότι η
λοίμωξη που
τους
σκοτώνει
δεν είναι
μια, δεν
είναι ένα
μικρόβιο.
Παράλληλα
μπορεί να
έχουν και
γρίπες και
ένα σωρό
άλλα
παθογόνα
αλλά για
αυτά δεν
κάνουν τεστ!
Όταν βρουν covid,
στον άλλον ο
οποίος
μπορεί να
είχε
πεθάνει από
υπέρταση/κα	
61;διακό,
τον
κατηγοριοπ_
9;ιούν
ως νεκρό covid!!!!)
Λέει εδώ ο
αρθρογράφο`
2;
πως όσο
μεγαλώνει
το δείγμα,
τόσο
μικραίνει
το cfr! Εγώ το
έβγαλα 0.64% εδώ
HTML http://webwar.createaforum.com/917960953963964942956951-954945953-932949967957959955959947943945/0-641233574-949943957945953-964959-cfr-964959965-covid19/<br
/>αλλά από ό,τι
;
φαίνεται
έκανα πολύ
συντηρητικ^
1;ς
εκτιμήσεις
με το 15% (βλ. εδώ
HTML https://www.protothema.gr/world/article/988422/koronoios-vretania-pithanon-na-ehei-prosvlithei-to-50-tou-plithusmou-tis-horas-sumfona-me-ereuna/).
Επίσης κάτι
που θα ρίξει
το cfr κι άλλο
είναι το
γεγονός ότι
πέρασε το peak
της
εποχικότητ^
5;ς
των ιών του
αναπνευστι_
4;ού.
covid19 = γρίπη
120 χιλιάδες
Έλληνες
γέροι
πεθαίνουν
κάθε χρόνο
και εμείς
κάνουμε
τόση
φασαρία και
ζημιά στην
οικονομία
για 20 άτομα
(όλοι τους
γέροι με
καρδιά,
διαβήτη και
καρκίνο)...
[quote]Is there something about being Germany which protects the
body against coronavirus Covid-19? Probably not, I would guess.
In which case why do the latest figures from the Robert Koch
Institute show that the country has a case fatality rate (CFR)
of 0.3 per cent, while the World Health Organisation (WHO)
figures from Italy seem to show a CFR of 9 per cent? To say
there is a vast gulf between those figures is an understatement.
If nine per cent of people who catch Covid-19 are going to die
from it we are facing a calamity beyond parallel in the modern
world. If only 0.3 per cent of people who catch it die from it,
this pandemic may yet turn out to be no worse than seasonal flu,
which as I have explained here before is estimated by the US
Centers for Disease Control to kill between 291,000 and 646,000
people a year without the world really noticing. According to
John Hopkins University, which is collating fatalities data,
15,308 have died to date.
So which is closer to the real situation, Italy’s experience or
Germany’s? Various theories have been put forward for Germany’s
low death rate: for example that many of those who have tested
positive for Covid-19 are young people who had returned from
skiing holidays in Italy. The age profile for those who have
tested positive in Germany is certainly much lower than in
Italy: a median of 46-years-old as opposed to 63 in Italy. Some
have expressed the fear that young German skiers will slowly
infect their parents and grandparents’ generation, and that the
death rate will steadily rise as the disease works its way
through more vulnerable elderly people.
Germany is almost certainly behind Italy in this epidemic. But
the main difference between Germany and Italy lies in those
countries’ respective attitudes towards testing. Germany has
carried out far more enthusiastic testing of the general
population – there does not seem to be a central figure for
this, but the German Doctors’ Association has estimated that
200,000 people across the country have been tested. In Britain,
it is 64,000 people. On the other hand, German hospitals do not
routinely test for the presence of coronavirus in patients who
are dying or who have died of other diseases. Italy, by
contrast, is performing posthumous coronavirus tests on patients
whose deaths might otherwise have been attributed to other
causes.
This matters hugely to the Case Fatality Rate for each country.
As explained here before, CFR is not to be confused with the
genuine Mortality Rate. The former is simply the number of
deaths divided by the number of recorded cases. The latter is
the number of deaths divided by the actual number of people who
have been infected by the disease. Trouble is, nobody knows the
latter figure because no country has tested its entire
population to see who has or has had the disease. What we do
know is that large numbers of people who have been confirmed as
having the disease only have mild symptoms – 45 per cent
according to Italy’s National Institute for Health. One in 10
have no symptoms at all. There must be many others who have been
infected but haven’t been tested and therefore who do now show
up as confirmed cases.
It stands to reason that the more people who are tested, the
more accurate a picture we will have of the mortality rate, the
transmission rate and other metrics which will determine the
eventual path of this pandemic. To underline the uncertainties
behind the data from which policy is currently being made, the
Royal Society of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine the other day
estimated the number of people in Britain who already have or
have had Covid-19 at between 6,000 and 23 million. That is a
pretty broad spread with hugely different implications. If only
6,000 have the disease in Britain, socially-distancing the
population or locking down society might have a purpose. If 23
million have the disease, it is pointless – it already has
ripped its way through the population but without killing more
than a tiny percentage.
What we really need is a huge effort to test a large randomised
sample of the population to see how widespread the infection is.
Hopefully, that will soon happen. But in the meantime, I am
minded to think that the more accurate picture of Covid-19 comes
from the country which has conducted the most tests: Germany.
WRITTEN BY
άντε και
γαμήσου! [/quote]
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