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#Post#: 22862--------------------------------------------------
Ξανα-απέτυχ	
49; ο Σοσιαλισμ
;ός!
By: Pinochet88 Date: May 20, 2016, 3:32 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Κοινή θέση
των
σοσιαλιστώ_
7;
από την άκρα
"δεξιά" μέχρι
την άκρα
αριστερά
είναι το
τύπωμα
χρήματος.
Έτσι, λένε
στον λαό τον
οποίο
περνάνε για
βλάκα, θα
έρθει η
...ανάπτυξη,
ενώ είναι
πασιφανές
ότι εκείνο
το οποίο
θέλουν
είναι να
επιβάλλουν
μια έμμεση
φορολογία
στους
πολίτες. Να
τυπώσει
χρήμα το
Κράτος, το
οποίο θα το
προμηθευτε^
3;
με
προνομιακοa
3;ς
όρους η
άρχουσα
τάξη, ενώ
παράλληλα
οι
αποταμιεύσ^
9;ις
του λαού θα
υποτιμηθού_
7;
σε σημείο να
γίνουν
καπνός και
όλοι να
εξαρτώνται
από το ζεστό
χρήμα της
παρασιτική`
2;
άρχουσας
τάξης.
Ο
κομμουνιστ_
3;κή
Βενεζουέλα
αποτελεί
σύγχρονο
παράδειγμα
αποτυχίας
αυτού του
ληστρικού
μοντέλου
(υπ)ανάπτυξη&#
962;
και μπορεί ο
καθένας να
διαπιστώσε_
3;
ιδίοις
όμασι τα
αποτελέσμα`
4;α
των
πολιτικών
των εχθρών
του σκληρού
χρήματος,
της
αναδιανομή`
2;,
των
κρατικοποι^
2;σεων
και του
αντικαπιτα_
5;ισμού.
[hr]
Will Venezuela Be Forced to Embrace the Dollar?
The country of Venezuela is dangerously approaching
hyperinflation. At 2015’s year-end, official figures had yearly
inflation at or above 180 percent (some private sector sources
estimated it at 330 percent). The technical definition of
hyperinflation is when inflation is at 50 percent or more per
month, meaning that Venezuela is not yet at this point, but does
seem to be approaching at an accelerated pace. The South
American country finds itself with inflation rates at their
worst in its history (1996 saw 103 percent yearly inflation) and
the highest in the world (Ukraine is second with 50 percent
yearly inflation).
Venezuelen official inflation rate
[URL=
HTML http://imgchili.net/show/84817/84817322_dani1.png][IMG]http://t8.imgchili.net/84817/84817322_dani1.jpg[/img][/URL]
Source: NSI Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela
The main effects of hyperinflation are beginning to be felt. In
every case in history where there has been hyperinflation, the
main cause has been fiscal imbalance, and the case in Venezuela
is no different. When there is a surge in the deficit, the same
applies for inflation (graph 2).
Budget deficit and inflation
[URL=
HTML http://imgchili.net/show/84817/84817323_dani2.png][IMG]http://t8.imgchili.net/84817/84817323_dani2.jpg[/img][/URL]
Source: Central Bank of Venezuela; International Monetary Fund
Normally, moderate inflation follows the path of the deficit
with a relatively large delay, because economic agents are
unable to anticipate deficit values and monetization with
precision. On the other hand, in times of hyperinflation,
inflation anticipates the deficit (economic agents overestimate
new monetization policies and there is a universal tendency to
evade local currency). In Venezuela, we can see that since 2013
(graph 3) inflation has increased at a faster rate than the
deficit, and for this reason we can consider the country in a
state of hyperinflation as of that date.
Rates of change inflation and budget deficit
[URL=
HTML http://imgchili.net/show/84817/84817324_dani3.png][IMG]http://t8.imgchili.net/84817/84817324_dani3.jpg[/img][/URL]
Source: Self-prepared using data from: Venezuela Central Bank;
International Monetary Fund
This creates a big problem for the government of Venezuela due
to the fact that real tax revenues decrease (just as in all
cases of hyperinflation). During the time between receipt of tax
revenues and actually putting these taxes to use, inflation eats
up the real value providing the government with less real
revenue.
An inverse relationship exists between inflation in Venezuela
and crude oil prices (graph 4). This relationship is such that
inflation increases rapidly when the main source of government
revenue (revenue from oil) decreases due to the fact that the
government does very little to reduce costs when decreases in
revenues are experienced (thus deficits are monetized and
amounts of currency rise at aggressive rates).
Oil price and inflation
[URL=
HTML http://imgchili.net/show/84817/84817325_dani4.png][IMG]http://t8.imgchili.net/84817/84817325_dani4.jpg[/img][/URL]
Source: NSI Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela; OPEC
One of the most surprising and paradoxical aspects of
hyperinflations is the shortage of money. When rises in prices
grow out of control (which is starting to be the case in
Venezuela), the amount of new money created is not enough to
suffice for these increases in prices. In other words, the real
money supply drops (nominal money supply / price levels).
Money supply growth
[URL=
HTML http://imgchili.net/show/84817/84817326_dani5.png][IMG]http://t8.imgchili.net/84817/84817326_dani5.jpg[/img][/URL]
The last phase in all cases of hyperinflation is currency
stabilization. This phase is inevitable whether it be because of
changes introduced by the government or due to complete
rejection of local currency by the population. In order for such
a monetary reform to be successful, it is essential that the
government first eliminate the main cause of the inflation (the
budget deficit). Unfortunately, it does not seem as though the
Venezuelan government has any plans to decrease spending, nor
does it appear that revenue from oil will be recovering any time
soon, meaning that any attempts at currency stabilization will
surely fail (just as it did the last time when the bolivar
fuerte was introduced in 2008).
In light of this situation, it seems that Theirs’ Law is
inevitable. Thiers’ Law is the reverse of Gresham’s Law. Good
money eventually takes bad money out of circulation as the
latter becomes abandoned. Currently, the US dollar serves as a
store of value for Venezuelans, and to a lesser extent, the unit
of account. The only function that the bolivar currently serves
is as a medium of payments, which is only a matter of time
before this function is abandoned, as well (in fact,
alternatives to using local currency have begun to spring up in
the form of bartering and trade). Seeing that the US dollar is
already serving various functions that replace the Venezuelan
currency, it is all too possible that it becomes the undesired
successor to the bolivar.
Most certainly, Venezuela finds itself in hyperinflation for
which there exist only two solutions; drastically reduce
spending and the deficit and execute monetary reform or lose the
bolivar and adopt the dollar. Both are equally unpopular for the
government of Venezuela, but the difference is that if the first
option (the deficit) goes unattended, the second (dollarization)
is inevitable. Then, one of the most anti-US governments in the
world will have to accept the US dollar as its only remedy
against hyperinflation.
In Venezuela, despite enormous levels of money creation; money
shortages are more and more common (graph 5). While the money
supply has doubled since last year, real money supply has
decreased 30 percent.
This article was translated from the Spanish by Robert Goss and
was first published by Universidad Francisco Marroquin.
source
HTML http://bc.vc/YBLd4e
[hr]
These 5 Facts Explain Why Venezuela Could Be on the Brink of
Collapse
Ian Bremmer @ianbremmer
May 19, 2016
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro News Conference As The
Country Moves To Slash Imports To 12-year Low
Bloomberg—Bloomberg via Getty Images Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela's
president, pauses while speaking during a news conference in
Caracas, Venezuela, on Tuesday, May 17, 2016. Earlier this
month, Venezuela's opposition said it had cleared the first
hurdle in a drive to remove Maduro from office. The opposition
says almost 2 million people signed a petition calling for a
recall process to start, far outstripping the 200,000 required
by law. Photographer: Carlos Becerra/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Even the beer is running out in Venezuela
The situation in Venezuela is going from bad to worse. This
week, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro repeated his threat to
seize closed factories and nationalize them, a bold move
considering his popularity numbers are in the tank and the
opposition—which won legislative elections late last year—is
breathing down his neck. These 5 facts explain what you need to
know about Venezuela right now.
Read More: Inside the Booming Smuggling Trade Between Venezuela
and Colombia
1. Feeling the Pinch
When we last checked in with Venezuela, the country was already
being crippled by shortages. The situation has deteriorated
further. Water is now rationed by the government, and some
residents have been warned that water will be supplied just once
every 21 days after the mainland reservoir dries up. Venezuelans
have begun stealing water from swimming pools and tanker trucks
to get by. Electricity is limited too, with Maduro ordering
public offices open just two days a week in a bid to conserve
energy. This is in addition to the four-hour power cuts ordered
across the country and the rolling blackouts that have become a
part of daily life. Basic medicines like aspirin are nowhere to
be found, and supermarket shelves are often empty. In April,
another devastating blow: the country’s largest private company,
Empresas Polar SA, closed its doors. Empresas makes 80 percent
of all beer consumed in the country—a tough turn of events at a
time when Venezuelans could use a drink.
(Wall Street Journal (a),Los Angeles Times,Wall Street Journal
2. How Venezuela Got Here
As Hemingway would say, Venezuela went bankrupt gradually, then
suddenly. For years, the country has been deeply dependent on
its vast oil reserves, which account for 96 percent of export
earnings and nearly half its federal budget. That was manageable
when oil was selling at more than $100 dollars a barrel.
Venezuela has budgeted for oil at $40 per barrel for years now,
but instead of saving the surplus when prices were higher, much
of this emergency oil fund was either spent or stolen. Venezuela
would now need oil prices to reach $121 per barrel to balance
its budget—instead, they’re hovering around $50. Damage to
Venezuela’s economy has been exacerbated by drought. About 65
percent of the country’s electricity is generated by a single
hydroelectric dam that’s now in serious trouble.
(Wall Street Journal (a),Bloomberg,Wall Street Journal(b))
Read More: These 5 Facts Explain Why Venezuela Is in Big
Trouble—Still
3. Long-term Problems
For decades, corruption has been a constant in Venezuelan
politics. It’s the most corrupt country in the Americas, and 9th
most corrupt in the world, according to Transparency
International. Its murder rate of 90 per 100,000 residents is
the second-highest in the world (after El Salvador). Not
surprisingly, people are angry. There are an average of 17
demonstrations per day across the country, according to the
Venezuelan Observatory for Social Conflict. The current
unemployment rate is 17 percent, and the IMF projects it will
reach nearly 21 percent next year. The inflation rate is
expected to hit 481 percent by year’s end and 1,642 percent by
next year, according to the IMF. To put that in perspective, in
February a McDonald’s Happy Meal in Caracas cost $146 dollars at
the official exchange rate of 6.3 bolivars per dollar.
(Transparency International,Wall Street Journal, Reuters, CNN)
Read More: Baseball’s Venezuelan Talent Pool Dries Up Amid
Poverty and Discord
4. Changing of the Guard?
Legislative elections this past December handed control of
Venezuela’s parliament to the Democratic Unity coalition, a
political grouping of centrist, center-left, and center-right
parties. It was the first time in 17 years that “Chavismo,” the
unique brand of socialist and populist politics spearheaded by
the late president Hugo Chavez and continued by Maduro, his
chosen successor, failed to win nationwide elections. Maduro’s
approval rating in December was 22 percent; today it’s 15
percent. Some 70 percent of Venezuelans want him removed from
office. Populists need popular support, and Maduro’s is running
out.
(CNN, Council on Foreign Relations, Los Angeles Times)
5. Race Against the Clock
To that end, the opposition has collected enough signatures to
trigger a recall referendum against Maduro. Activists needed
200,000 signatures, one percent of all voters, to kick-start the
process. They got 1.85 million. Two weeks ago they submitted
their list to the National Electoral Council (CNE) for approval,
but the validators are government loyalists and have been
dragging their feet.
Why? Timing of the referendum is crucial. According to the
Venezuelan constitution, if the president is ousted within the
final two years of his term, the presidency passes to the
sitting vice-president—in this case, Aristobulo Isturiz, a loyal
Chavista. If that should come to pass—January 10, 2017 is the
magic date—the opposition fear is that the Chavista movement
will simply sacrifice Maduro to protect Chavismo. And short of a
popular uprising intense enough to force the government to move
more quickly, that’s exactly what will happen. Maduro looks
likely to be ousted before his term officially ends; the real
question is whether Chavismo will get the boot along with him.
source
HTML http://bc.vc/dsTo9G
#Post#: 22863--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ξανα-απέτυχ
;ε ο Σοσιαλισ&
#956;ός!
By: mistermax Date: May 20, 2016, 3:54 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Pinochet88 link=topic=2631.msg22862#msg22862
date=1463733146]
Κοινή θέση
των
σοσιαλιστώ_
7;
από την άκρα
"δεξιά" μέχρι
την άκρα
αριστερά
είναι το
τύπωμα
χρήματος.
[/quote]
οχι μονο
αυτό, λενε
και για
κουρεμα.
Οπως η ΧΑ που
υποστηρίζε_
3;ς,
όπως ο Τραμπ
που
υποστηρίζε_
3;ς.
[quote]"First of all, you never have to default because you
print the money," the presumptive Republican presidential
nominee said on CNN.
This is true, but as with trying to get bondholders to take a
haircut, it's out of the economic mainstream.
Last Thursday, Trump suggested on CNBC that he would be able to
reduce the national debt by persuading creditors to accept a
"haircut" on that debt
HTML http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-default-print-money-2016-5
[/quote]
#Post#: 22879--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ξανα-απέτυχ
;ε ο Σοσιαλισ&
#956;ός!
By: Pinochet88 Date: May 20, 2016, 12:12 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Εγώ δεν
υποστηρίζω
τη Χ.Α. και
τον Τραμπ
επειδή θα
τυπώσουν
χρήμα. Αυτά
τα
καταδικάζω.
Εγώ τους
υποστηρίζω
γιατί θα
ρίξουν τους
εβραίους
στους
θαλάμους
αερίων να
τους κάψουν
και θα
βάλουν τους
μωαμεθανού`
2;
και τους
σκυλάραπες
να
δουλεύουν
στις
φυτείες και
θα τους
μαστιγώνου_
7;.
Μετά θα
έρθει ο
Πινοσέτ και
θα βάλει και
τη Χρυσή
Αυγή και τον
Τραμπ στους
θαλάμους
και θα τους
πετάξει στη
θάλασσα και
θα
απαλλαγεί
οριστικά η
ανθρωπότητ^
5;
από τα
σκουλήκια
και τα
μιάσματα.
#Post#: 22885--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ξανα-απέτυχ
;ε ο Σοσιαλισ&
#956;ός!
By: Dayan Date: May 20, 2016, 1:42 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Pinochet88 link=topic=2631.msg22879#msg22879
date=1463764352]
Εγώ τους
υποστηρίζω
γιατί θα
ρίξουν τους
εβραίους
στους
θαλάμους
αερίων να
τους κάψουν.
[/quote]
|
|
\/
[quote author=mistermax link=topic=2598.msg22634#msg22634
date=1463148226]
Ivanka Trump gives birth to ‘beautiful Jewish baby’Orthodox
Jewish daughter of Republican front-runner Donald Trump welcomes
third child, Theodore
Ivanka Trump converted to Orthodox Judaism in 2009 in order to
marry her husband, with whom she already has two children:
Arabella, 4, and Joseph, 2.
“I have a lot of — I have tremendous love for Israel. I happen
to have a son-in-law and a daughter that are Jewish, OK? And two
grandchildren that are Jewish,” Donald Trump also said earlier
this month during a debate broadcast on CNN.
HTML http://www.timesofisrael.com/ivanka-trump-gives-birth-to-beautiful-jewish-baby/
[/quote]
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