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#Post#: 13406--------------------------------------------------
GAMING ISRAEL AND PALESTINE
DIR By: gemista69
Date: July 29, 2014, 3:53 am
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Gaming Israel and Palestine
July 29, 2014 | 0804 GMT
Stratfor
By George Friedman
We have long argued that the Arab-Israeli conflict is inherently
insoluble. Now, for the third time in recent years, a war is
being fought in Gaza. The Palestinians are firing rockets into
Israel with minimal effect. The Israelis are carrying out a
broader operation to seal tunnels along the Gaza-Israel
boundary. Like the previous wars, the current one will settle
nothing. The Israelis want to destroy Hamas' rockets. They can
do so only if they occupy Gaza and remain there for an extended
period while engineers search for tunnels and bunkers throughout
the territory. This would generate Israeli casualties from Hamas
guerrillas fighting on their own turf with no room for retreat.
So Hamas will continue to launch rockets, but between the
extreme inaccuracy of the rockets and Israel's Iron Dome defense
system, the group will inflict little damage to the Israelis.
War Without a Military Outcome
The most interesting aspect of this war is that both sides
apparently found it necessary, despite knowing it would have no
definitive military outcome. The kidnapping and killing of three
Israeli teenagers followed by the incineration of a Palestinian
boy triggered this conflict. An argument of infinite regression
always rages as to the original sin: Who committed the first
crime?
For the Palestinians, the original crime was the migration into
the Palestinian mandate by Jews, the creation of the State of
Israel and the expulsion of Arabs from that state. For Israel,
the original sin came after the 1967 war, during which Israel
captured the West Bank, Gaza, the Golan Heights and East
Jerusalem. At that moment, the Israelis were prepared to discuss
a deal, but the Arabs announced their famous "three nos" at a
meeting in Khartoum: no negotiation, no recognition, no peace.
That locked the Israelis into an increasingly rigid stance.
Attempts at negotiations have followed the Khartoum declaration,
all of which failed, and the "no recognition" and "no peace"
agreement is largely intact. Cease-fires are the best that
anyone can hope for.
For Hamas, at least -- and I suspect for many Palestinians in
the West Bank -- the only solution is Israel's elimination. For
many Israelis, the only solution is to continue to occupy all
captured territories until the Palestinians commit to peace and
recognition. Since the same Israelis do not believe that day
will ever come, the occupation would become permanent.
Under these circumstances, the Gaza war is in some sense a
matter of housekeeping. For Hamas, the point of the operation is
demonstrating it can fire rockets at Israel. These rockets are
inaccurate, but the important thing is that they were smuggled
into Gaza at all, since this suggests more dangerous weapons
eventually will be smuggled in to the Palestinian territory. At
the same time, Hamas is demonstrating that it remains able to
incur casualties while continuing to fight.
For the Israelis, the point of the operation is that they are
willing to carry it out at all. The Israelis undoubtedly intend
to punish Gaza, but they do not believe they can impose their
will on Gaza and compel the Palestinians to reach a political
accommodation with Israel. War's purpose is to impose your
political will on your enemy. But unless the Israelis surprise
us immensely, nothing decisive will come out of this conflict.
Even if Israel somehow destroyed Hamas, another organization
would emerge to fill its space in the Palestinian ecosystem.
Israel can't go far enough to break the Palestinian will to
resist; it is dependent on a major third-party state to help
meet Israeli security needs. This creates an inherent
contradiction whereby Israel receives enough American support to
guarantee its existence but because of humanitarian concerns is
not allowed to take the kind of decisive action that might solve
its security problem.
We thus see periodic violence of various types, none of which
will be intended or expected to achieve any significant
political outcome. Wars here have become a series of
bloodstained gestures. There are some limited ends to achieve,
such as closing Palestinian tunnels and demonstrating
Palestinian capabilities that force Israel into an expensive
defensive posture. But Hamas will not be defeated, and Israel
will make no concessions.
Sovereignty and Viability Problems
The question therefore is not what the point of all this is --
although that is a fascinating subject -- but where all this
ends. All things human end. Previous longstanding conflicts,
such as those between France and England, ended or at least
changed shape. Israel and Palestine accordingly will resolve
their conflict in due course.
Many believe the creation of a Palestinian state will be the
solution, and those who believe this often have trouble
understanding why this self-evidently sensible solution has not
been implemented. The reason is the proposed solution is not
nearly as sensible as it might appear to some.
Issues of viability and sovereignty surround any discussion of a
Palestinian state. Geography raises questions about the
viability of any Palestinian polity. Palestine has two
population centers, Gaza and the West Bank, which are detached
from one another. One population center, Gaza, is an enormously
crowded, narrow salient. Its ability to develop a sustainable
economy is limited. The West Bank has more possibilities, but
even it would be subordinate to a dynamic Israel. If the
Palestinian workforce is drawn into the Israeli economy, both
territories will become adjuncts to Israel. Within its current
borders, a viable Palestine is impossible to imagine.
From the Israeli point of view, creating a Palestine along
something resembling the 1967 lines (leaving aside the question
of Jerusalem) would give the Palestinians superb targets,
namely, Tel Aviv and Haifa. Given its history, Israel is
unlikely to take that risk unless it had the right to oversee
security in the West Bank in some way. That in turn would
undermine Palestinian sovereignty.
As you play out the possibilities in any two-state solution, you
run into the problem that any solution one side demanded would
be unbearable to the other. Geography simply won't permit two
sovereign states. In this sense, the extremists on both sides
are more realistic than the moderates. But that reality
encounters other problems.
Israel's High-Water Mark
Currently, Israel is as secure as it is ever likely to be unless
Hamas disappears, never to be replaced, and the West Bank
becomes even more accommodating to Israel. Neither of these
prospects is likely. Israel's economy towers over its neighbors.
The Palestinians are weak and divided. None of Israel's
neighbors pose any threat of invasion, a situation in place
since the 1977 neutralization of Egypt. Jordan is locked into a
close relation with Israel, Egypt has its peace treaty and
Hezbollah is bogged down in Syria. Apart from Gaza, which is a
relatively minor threat, Israel's position is difficult to
improve.
Israel can't radically shift its demography. But several
evolutions in the region could move against Israel. Egypt could
change governments, renounce its treaty, rearm and re-enter the
Sinai Peninsula. Hezbollah could use its experience in Syria to
open a front in Lebanon. Syria could get an Islamic State-led
government and threaten the Golan Heights. Islamists could
overthrow Jordan's Hashemite monarchy and pose a threat to the
east. Turkey could evolve into a radical Islamic government and
send forces to challenge Israel. A cultural revolution could
take place in the Arab world that would challenge Israel's
economic superiority, and therefore its ability to wage war.
Iran could smuggle missiles into Gaza, and so on.
There is accordingly an asymmetry of possibilities. It is
difficult to imagine any evolution, technical, political or
economic, that would materially improve Israel's already
dominant position, but there are many things that could weaken
Israel -- some substantially. Each may appear far-fetched at the
moment, but everything in the future seems far-fetched. None is
inconceivable.
It is a rule of politics and business to bargain from strength.
Israel is now as strong as it is going to be. But Israel does
not think that it can reach an accommodation with the
Palestinians that would guarantee Israeli national security, a
view based on a realistic reading of geography. Therefore,
Israel sees little purpose in making concessions to the
Palestinians despite its relative position of strength.
In these circumstances, the Israeli strategy is to maintain its
power at a maximum level and use what influence it has to
prevent the emergence of new threats. From this perspective, the
Israeli strategy on settlements makes sense. If there will be no
talks, and Israel must maintain its overwhelming advantage,
creating strategic depth in the West Bank is sensible; it would
be less sensible if there were a possibility of a peace treaty.
Israel must also inflict a temporary defeat on any actively
hostile Palestinian force from time to time to set them back
several years and to demonstrate Israeli capabilities for
psychological purposes.
The Palestinian position meanwhile must be to maintain its
political cohesion and wait, using its position to try to drive
wedges between Israel and its foreign patrons, particularly the
United States, but understanding that the only change in the
status quo will come from changes outside the
Israeli-Palestinian complex. The primary Palestinian problem
will be to maintain itself as a distinct entity with sufficient
power to resist an Israeli assault for some time. Any peace
treaty would weaken the Palestinians by pulling them into the
Israeli orbit and splitting them up. By refusing a peace treaty,
they remain distinct, if divided. That guarantees they will be
there when circumstances change.
Fifty Years Out
Israel's major problem is that circumstances always change.
Predicting the military capabilities of the Arab and Islamic
worlds in 50 years is difficult. Most likely, they will not be
weaker than they are today, and a strong argument can be made
that at least several of their constituents will be stronger. If
in 50 years some or all assume a hostile posture against Israel,
Israel will be in trouble.
Time is not on Israel's side. At some point, something will
likely happen to weaken its position, while it is unlikely that
anything will happen to strengthen its position. That normally
would be an argument for entering negotiations, but the
Palestinians will not negotiate a deal that would leave them
weak and divided, and any deal that Israel could live with would
do just that.
What we are seeing in Gaza is merely housekeeping, that is, each
side trying to maintain its position. The Palestinians need to
maintain solidarity for the long haul. The Israelis need to hold
their strategic superiority as long as they can. But nothing
lasts forever, and over time, the relative strength of Israel
will decline. Meanwhile, the relative strength of the
Palestinians may increase, though this isn't certain.
Looking at the relative risks, making a high-risk deal with the
Palestinians would seem prudent in the long run. But nations do
not make decisions on such abstract calculations. Israel will
bet on its ability to stay strong. From a political standpoint,
it has no choice. The Palestinians will bet on the long game.
They have no choice. And in the meantime, blood will
periodically flow.
#Post#: 13414--------------------------------------------------
Re: GAMING ISRAEL AND PALESTINE
DIR By: Somalian Pirate
Date: July 29, 2014, 7:19 pm
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HTML https://img.4plebs.org/boards/pol/image/1386/88/1386883159012.jpg
#Post#: 13431--------------------------------------------------
Re: GAMING ISRAEL AND PALESTINE
DIR By: gemista69
Date: July 30, 2014, 3:42 pm
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ρε θα γίνετε
ποτέ
αθρώποι;
γιατί
άνθρωποι δε
σας βλέπω :-\
#Post#: 13484--------------------------------------------------
Re: GAMING ISRAEL AND PALESTINE
DIR By: Sagapaw
Date: August 2, 2014, 8:45 am
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HTML http://www.newsfetish.com/Assets/Images/maninrubble.jpg
NA RE TELEIWMENOI TI KANEI TO ISRAHL STOUS PALAISTANOYS. TOYS
BAFEI ERITHROLEFKOUS!
#Post#: 13488--------------------------------------------------
Re: GAMING ISRAEL AND PALESTINE
DIR By: Αρχιφ&#94...
Date: August 2, 2014, 4:11 pm
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--- Quote from: Sagapaw link ---
>
>
>
HTML http://www.newsfetish.com/Assets/Images/maninrubble.jpg
>
>
>
>
>
>
> NA RE TELEIWMENOI TI KANEI TO ISRAHL STOUS PALAISTANOYS. TOYS
BAFEI ERITHROLEFKOUS!
>
>
>
--- End Quote ---
ΚΑΙ ΓΑΥΡΟΙ
ΛΟΙΠΟΝ,
ΕΚΤΟΣ ΤΩΝ
ΑΛΛΩΝ, ΟΙ
ΠΑΛΑΙΣΤΗΝΙΟΙ!
#Post#: 13497--------------------------------------------------
Re: GAMING ISRAEL AND PALESTINE
DIR By: Somalian Pirate
Date: August 3, 2014, 12:45 pm
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Άλλος ένας
λόγος να
ξεμπερδεύουμε
μια για
πάντα με τη
φάρα τους.
Στα
τσακίδια
και να μη μας
γράφουν οι
ψευτοφιλισταίοι.
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