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#Post#: 332--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: January 18, 2019, 3:51 am
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Between 12:40 AM and 2 AM; we had a nice 80 minute burst of snow
that put down 2/10ths of an inch of snow.
The snow seems to have ended.
The Rule of Thumb for forecasting snow here is vindicated yet
again:
Whatever is the worst and lowest QPF output amongst the various
models; take it and divide it by 5 (i.e. take 20% of what it
shows)...and you will usually have your "storm" (lolz) total
here.
This is no exaggeration or manifestation of hyperbole; it has
verified with astonishing accuracy and frequency during my
watch.
And that'll do it...
Next!
#Post#: 334--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: January 18, 2019, 3:56 am
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Remember My First Iron Rule of Forecasting? You Can't Fight
Climatology
Here is My Second Iron Rule:
Shitty Solutions Always Verify.
For every "good" bust; there will be 99 Bad Ones.
#Post#: 335--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: January 18, 2019, 4:07 am
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Looks like the heavy snow band is sitting 10 miles to my east;
while it is nice and dry here.
I am still waiting for my torture to end; it began during the
Days of Sumer (not summer; lol)...so we're talking 6K + anos.
As the saying goes; the floggings will continue until morale
improves; though I prefer Dante:
"Abandon hope; all ye who enter here!"
Lolz.
#Post#: 336--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: January 18, 2019, 4:24 am
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And I thought I was living in a Snow Hell on that low hill
outside Rapid City last year...
In fairness, it WAS a snow hell; if not for a good Feb '18
through April '18 last year (50.8" those last 3 months / 66.3"
for the season)...November 2017 - January 2018 were unbelievably
horrendous there (15.5" total).
#Post#: 337--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: January 18, 2019, 11:39 am
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--- Quote from: Pamela link ---
>
> And I thought I was living in a Snow Hell on that low hill
outside Rapid City last year...
>
> In fairness, it WAS a snow hell; if not for a good Feb '18
through April '18 last year (50.8" those last 3
months)...November 2017 - January 2018 were unbelievably
horrendous there.
>
--- End Quote ---
Since my last dispatch during the overnight hours; some more
snow has actually fallen here (an additional 3/10ths of an inch)
to bring the storm (and I use that term loosely) up to 1/2 an
inch.
That was as of 10:35 AM; and I cleared the snowboard at that
time.
We'll see if anymore is coming; or as they use to say in the
good old days of television:
"Stay tuned for our next exciting episode of Underdog!"
Very light snow falling @ 10:35 AM; temp 14.2 F.
I think San Diego has more exciting weather than here; and w/o
the heating bill!
Lolz.
#Post#: 338--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: January 18, 2019, 2:12 pm
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Looks like its over here; though that would presuppose it
began...with a grand total of 1/2 an inch of new snow.
Monthly Total: 0.6"
Seasonal Total: 28.0"
'Twas the 16th measurable snowfall of the season here; and this
is the 51st day with snow on the ground.
That means that the average "snowstorm" here is under 2
inches....something to keep in mind when snow is in the
forecast.
#Post#: 339--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: January 18, 2019, 4:48 pm
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--- Quote from: Pamela link ---
>
> Some hope is in sight; as the pattern gets wetter and more
favorable for snow here after about Day 8 / 18 January.
>
> The GFS @ 12z prints out well over 20 inches of snow here from
about Day 10 through Day 16; we know; from previous experience;
this is vastly overdone...but 10 to 20 inches of new snow here
before the month ends seems reasonable.
>
--- End Quote ---
Well, at least I had the right date...lolz.
The pattern still looks good here through the end of the month;
and it will almost certainly snow some more...but again; caution
should be exercised when evaluating these clippers and fronts
whose QPF amounts are VASTLY OVERDONE by the models in the
mid-range...not just here...everywhere in the Upper Midwest.
#Post#: 340--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: January 18, 2019, 4:58 pm
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The bad snowfall total so far for January here should not be a
surprise; January is a terrible month for snow here...only
slightly snowier than both May and October.
The semi-permanent High sets up shop over the western High
Plains / SW Canada during much of January....and this insures a
series of storm-proof solutions.
However, we are now moving past the driest part of the year
climatologically; it keeps getting wetter and wetter at a very
quick rate right into May...so even last year; after the
terrible Nov - Jan snow totals; I often wrote optimistically
about the last 3 months (Feb - April); and fortunately, I was
not disappointed with them
#Post#: 341--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: January 21, 2019, 1:23 am
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--- Quote from: Pamela link ---
>
> With this weekend storm in the Northeast; I think NYC can
expect a coating towards the southern part of town...up to as
much as 2 inches in the northern part of the Bronx.
>
> LGA and CPK should be somewhere in the middle; each measuring
around one inch of new snow...and a similar total for Islip &
Upton on Long Island.
>
> Far northern NJ should do a good deal better; with locally 6
to 10 inches in places like northern Sussex County.
>
> I think Boston will also see 6 to 10 inches (Logan Airport,
right on the water)...but out out towards Worcester; a solid
foot is likely.
>
> The main fury of the storm will be felt in the Capitol
District and in the Berkshires; where 18 to 24 inches seems
likely / 18" for Albany; 24" for the Berkshires...the northern
Berkshires will be closer to the 24"...the southern parts
probably closer to 18"...just like Albany.
>
> I would say about 4 to 8 inches for Hartford (Bradley
Field)...and 2 to 5 inches for Providence; which always finds a
way to shoot itself in the foot.
>
> The Litchfield Hills of NW CT will do well; Norfolk, CT should
pick up around 10 to 14 inches.
>
> Since the 850 mb 0 C isothern will pass north of Norfolk &
Hartford around the same time; you may ask as to why the big
discrepancy in the forecasts?
>
> The reason being...Norfolk is going to get a fantastic upslope
burst of snow...while Hartford, down in the CT Valley...they
will suffer from the downsloping...however the wind
blows...greatly reducing their QPF.
>
> For all points south of a line from Sandy Hook, NJ to
Baltimore, MD...it is unlikely that any measurable snow shall be
recorded.
>
--- End Quote ---
Not a bad forecast...
The Massachusetts totals were overdone; I said one inch for NYC
& LI...the best total was 2/10ths of an inch at Central Park and
Upton...so pretty good there.
The N Jersey totals up towards Sussex County were also a little
overdone, I had 6" - 10"...the best they could do was around 4
-5 inches.
Good job with the Hartford forecast; I said 4" - 8"; they got
6.7".
Good job with Providence; I said 2" -5"; they got 1.6"...after
wryly noting how they always shoot themselves in the foot.
The area south and east of that Sandy Hook / Baltimore line did
see nothing.
Albany had 13.9" (I forecast 18")...and Savoy in the Berkshires
had 20.3" (I forecast 24")_...so pretty good there as well.
#Post#: 342--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: January 21, 2019, 12:31 pm
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Snow should develop here towards sunset; and some accumulations
are likely.
It is 37 F @ 11:30 AM and overcast.
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