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#Post#: 256--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: November 26, 2018, 1:50 pm
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Black Hills Snowfall 2018-19
As of 11/26/2018 / 9:00 AM
Lead: 24.2" (elev. 5348')
Custer: 20.5" (elev. 5479')
Hill City: 17.6" (elev. 4977')
Me / Eastern Slopes of Black Hills: 13.3" (elev. 4410')
Pactola Dam: 12.2" (elev. 4724')
NWS WFO Rapid City: 10.8" (elev. 3356')
Spearfish: 5.6" (elev. 3517')
#Post#: 258--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: November 27, 2018, 10:18 pm
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The 0z GFS has 2.1" of snow for downtown Rapid City; there is a
bizarre algorithm in the GFS program that makes it forecast a
Snowfall & Precip. Minima over Rapid City Every Time; it might
be somewhat legitimate with a downslope west wind...but when you
see it with an upslope east wind and printing out more snow in
Wasta...you can safely ignore Everything It Says...
The non-hydrostatic models (Euro and the FV3-GFS) get it; the
hydrostatic models do not have a clue; as the Impact of a Large
Upper Air Storm cannot be properly processed by their inferior
numerical modeling.
#Post#: 260--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: November 29, 2018, 6:30 pm
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Bracing for our snowstorm out here starting tomorrow; still some
details to be ironed out...but I think there is a good chance
for 10 to 15 inches in the Black Hills; especially the East
Side. We'll see.
I stocked up on some food today at the grocery store; driving
down the mountain and into town.
As the saying goes, "just in case".
#Post#: 261--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: November 29, 2018, 7:02 pm
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Right now; I would estimate that snow would develop here between
3 PM and 4 PM Friday afternoon...
A big factor will be how long it lingers...
The earliest shut off would be Saturday night; but this area is
usually slow to dry out...so it may continue well into Sunday.
#Post#: 262--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: November 30, 2018, 3:39 pm
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42.1 F @ 2:37 PM and overcast.
The good snows may take a while to get going (what else is
new?).
If we get one inch by midnight; it would be considered fairly
decent.
The better snows should begin on Saturday; I hope.
#Post#: 263--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: November 30, 2018, 3:42 pm
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Most of the models have trended downwards around here...but
really not too far down...still most in the 0.7 to 1.0 L.E.
range...which would still yield a very nice snowstorm; as the
ratios should be no worse than 15:1.
Anything less than 8 inches will be a profound disappointment.
There are leftover patches of snow here at present; but since
less than 50% of the ground is covered; it goes in the books as
a "no snow on the ground day" (as did yesterday)...unless that
changes by midnight.
A look at the Black Hills webcams shows that the same
circumstances apply in many other spots; even the 6522' Hardy
Station near the Wyoming line on RT 85 looks like it has just 2
- 4 inches on the ground.
Still sitting on 13.3" of snow on the season here; a little
below climo.
The normal amount through 30 November is 15.5".
#Post#: 264--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: November 30, 2018, 4:21 pm
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--- Quote from: Pamela link ---
>
> Looking at the webcams in the area; it is interesting to see
places like Deadwood & Savoy...in the northern part of the Black
Hills...with practically bare ground...Spearfish & Sturgis...on
the northern edge of the Hills (though not actually in them)
being snowless...decent (for November) snow cover in the Central
Black Hills (and even a coating down in Rapid City)...and then
the usual decrease to nothing as one moves out towards eastern
Pennington County...a progressive diminution from Ellsworth, to
New Underwood, to Wasta to Wall. Eastern Pennington County is
an awful area for snow (the Wasta / Wall area). Much of the
region is in the 2000 - 2500 foot range in altitude....and being
in the shadow of the Black Hills; where elevations go up just
over 7200'...a severe rain shadow exists. Moreover, it is too
far west to enjoy the benefits of Gulf of Mexico moisture; it
still lies in a no man's land; west of the proverbial "dry
line".
>
--- End Quote ---
Pennington County is about 2 degrees of longitude from east to
west (between the 102nd and 104th meridians)...about 138
miles...and as I said; a very big difference between the east
and west sides of the county as far as sensible weather goes.
Wasta (on the east side) has only a trace of snow on the winter
as of today; areas in the Black Hills west of RT 385 have seen
more than 20 inches...and that gap will only widen as winter
progresses.
Last winter; the NWS WFO Rapid City out-snowed Wasta 66.4" to
46.4"...20 inches even.
The WFO is about 39 miles WNW of Wasta...and about 1037 feet
higher. (3356' to 2319')
#Post#: 265--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: November 30, 2018, 6:37 pm
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As a general rule; the absolute worst model solution ALWAYS
VERIFES here.
The absolute outliers were showing a dry slot over the eastern
slopes of the B.H....it seemed like a 1 in 20 chance...now looks
like it will verify. This may be the last plot of real estate
in western SD to start snowing.
I would not be suprised if it takes until 5 AM before any
accumulating snow starts falling here.
Like I have often written; I lead a surreal life where
unfavorable outcomes are the only outcomes. If I re-located to
the top of Mt. Ranier; it would be 60 F and sunny there on New
Years Day...with bare ground at the summit.
Once it starts snowing here; it should snow decently
enough...but I would not be surprised if there are temperature
issues from Rapid City east through much of Saturday...as there
is almost no cold air to draw upon.
Snow on the Plains of western SD may have trouble sticking (even
with a weak Dec 1 sun) with air temps of around 34 F.
#Post#: 266--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: December 1, 2018, 8:48 am
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It began snowing here @ 3:45 AM and as of 7:45 AM we have
accumulated exactly one inch of snow...in 4 hours time.
Temp is 30.7 F and snow is starting to come down a little
heavier. There had been a lull for at least the last hour; as
snow came down pretty hard before sunrise.
#Post#: 267--------------------------------------------------
Re: General Weather Observations and Discussion from around
America
DIR By: Pamela
Date: December 1, 2018, 10:54 am
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1.7" new snow @ 9:45 AM (after 6 hours of snow).
Hit 15" on the season even.
Temp 30.7 F with light to moderate snow falling.
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