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#Post#: 126--------------------------------------------------
Demographic Blueshift
By: 90sRetroFan Date: July 6, 2020, 12:00 am
---------------------------------------------------------
HTML https://brilliantmaps.com/wp-content/uploads/if-only-x-voted.jpg
OLD CONTENT
[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]
[attachimg=3]
www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2018/04/14/449
461/americas-electoral-future-2/
[quote]The recent elections of Donald Trump and Barack Obama
were influenced in no small measure by shifts in the nation’s
underlying demographic structure—the rise of communities of
color, the increase in the number of older Americans, the
sharpening of education divisions—and the distinctive voting
behavior of these demographic groups. This 2018 report of the
States of Change project, the fourth in an annual series,
examines an array of future presidential election outcome
scenarios—from 2020 through 2036—that could arise as the
demography of the nation and its 50 states changes over the next
18 years.
These scenarios, developed by the authors, include outcomes that
favor both Republican and Democratic candidates. They are not
intended as predictions but are simulations based on assumptions
about different demographic groups’ future voting patterns. Each
of the alternative scenarios assumes the same projections for
the nation’s underlying demographic structure of eligible voters
(EVs) with respect to race, age, and education attainment. As
such, the scenarios provide for a more in-depth understanding
than national or state polling trends can supply about how
emerging voting patterns may interact with changes in the
demography of the nation’s electorate to affect future popular
vote and Electoral College outcomes.
Many analysts suggest that if current voting patterns remain the
same as in recent elections, the projected rise of communities
of color—Hispanics, blacks, Asians, and others—will favor
Democrats as the Republican-leaning white share of the
electorate shrinks. However, the aging of the population and the
continued substantial political clout of whites without college
educations played a key role in electing Republican Donald
Trump. Because the demography of these latter groups differs
across states in ways that tend to benefit Republicans, this
report finds that quite a few future scenarios could mimic the
result of the 2016 election—a Democratic win in the popular vote
with a Republican win in the Electoral College.[/quote]
See also:
HTML https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-only-men-voted-only-women-only-nonwhite-voters/
www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/demographic-shifts-show-2020
-presidential-race-could-be-close-n868146
What can be done in practice to increase the rate of Blueshift
as efficiently as possible?
#Post#: 127--------------------------------------------------
Re: Demographic Blueshift
By: 90sRetroFan Date: July 6, 2020, 12:11 am
---------------------------------------------------------
OLD CONTENT contd.
www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/k-8-students-hit-milestone-about-hal
f-are-minorities-n946666
[quote]AUSTIN, Texas — The country’s steadily diversifying
student population has hit a milestone: about half of
kindergarten through eighth-grade students are racial and ethnic
minorities.
The Census Bureau reported Tuesday that 49.9 percent of the K-8
students in 2017 were non-Hispanic white, down from 56.7 percent
a decade earlier.[/quote]
What matters to us, however, is voters. We will have to wait ~15
years for this lot to all enter the voting population and become
part of the Blueshift. What we are fighting for is the crucial
interval before this happens, because the Reds are trying to use
this interval to prevent it from happening altogether:
www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/02/06/trump-immigration
-plan-could-keep-whites-in-u-s-majority-for-up-to-five-more-year
s/
[quote]President Trump's proposal to cut legal immigration rates
would delay the date that white Americans become a minority of
the population by as few as one or as many as five additional
years, according to an analysis by The Washington Post.
The plan, released by the White House last month, would scale
back a program that allows people residing in the United States
to sponsor family members living abroad for green cards, and
would eliminate the “diversity visa program” that benefits
immigrants in countries with historically low levels of
migration to the United States. Together, the changes would
disproportionately affect immigrants from Latin America and
Africa.
The Census Bureau projects that minority groups will outnumber
non-Hispanic whites in the United States in 2044. The Post's
analysis projects that, were Trump's plan to be carried out, the
date would be between 2045 and 2049, depending on how parts of
it are implemented.[/quote]
Remember that the voting population lags behind the total
population by almost two decades. So the US won't be in the safe
zone until 2064 even by the optimistic estimate, whereas I would
like the US to reach the safe zone within the 2020s if possible.
Because the next GOP candidate could easily be so far-right that
we might even prefer having Trump back! (Remember those days
when we used to be sure there would never in the rest of history
be a worse US president than W. Bush? We'd be fools to think we
have hit rock bottom with Trump. Think about it this way: to the
average Trump voter, Trump is still too moderate. This means
even the average Trump voter is a more evil person than Trump
himself. Let that sink in for a moment.)
[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]
---
Demographic Blueshift is happening. Perhaps not fast enough for
our liking, but at least it is happening:
www.pewsocialtrends.org/2019/01/17/generation-z-looks-a-lot-like
-millennials-on-key-social-and-political-issues/
(please study the whole thing)
[quote]Only about three-in-ten Gen Zers and Millennials (30% and
29%, respectively) approve of the way Donald Trump is handling
his job as president. This compares with 38% of Gen Xers, 43% of
Boomers and 54% of Silents. Similarly, while majorities in Gen Z
and the Millennial generation say government should do more to
solve problems, rather than that government is doing too many
things better left to businesses and individuals, Gen Xers and
Boomers are more evenly divided on this issue. For their part,
most Silents would like to see a less activist government.
When it comes to views on race, the two younger generations are
more likely than older generations to say that blacks are
treated less fairly than whites in the United States today. And
they are much more likely than their elders to approve of NFL
players kneeling during the national anthem as a sign of
protest.[/quote]
This part is quite funny to me:
[quote]The youngest generation is also the most likely to say
forms or online profiles that ask about a person’s gender should
include options other than “man” or “woman.” Roughly six-in-ten
Gen Zers (59%) hold this view, compared with half of Millennials
and four-in-ten or fewer Gen Xers, Boomers and Silents.[/quote]
How about simply not asking the question about gender at all?
This is how gender-obsessed people are: even when trying to get
past the traditional gender dichotomy, they think that the
solution is to include even more genders instead of ignoring the
concept!
[quote]In addition, the youngest Republicans stand apart in
their views on the role of government and the causes of climate
change. Gen Z Republicans are much more likely than Republicans
in older generations to say government should do more to solve
problems. And they are less likely than their older counterparts
to attribute the earth’s warming temperatures to natural
patterns, as opposed to human activity.[/quote]
Let's be clear here: it is not "human activity" that has caused
global warming, it is WESTERN activity. Pre-colonial non-Western
human activity could have continued for another thousand years
with no danger to climate whatsoever.
---
Slightly older but still relevant research:
www.people-press.org/2017/10/24/political-typology-reveals-deep-
fissures-on-the-right-and-left/
Latest research:
HTML http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/
WE WILL REPLACE YOU!
---
More demography-sorted attitude stats!
d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/n2801y1hk
9/econTabReport.pdf
Check out Table 2E in particular.
---
While we have spoken of the importance of concentrating on
demographically flipping Texas (as well as other states with
significant numbers of electoral votes), another approach that
some leftists have been working on is to cut out the Electoral
College, an approach which certainly has rightists worried:
thehill.com/homenews/campaign/432014-ex-maine-gop-governor-says-
white-people-wont-get-anything-to-say-if
[quote]Former Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) said Tuesday that
eliminating the Electoral College and electing a president based
on the national popular vote would thwart the voice of white
people.
"Actually, what would happen if they do what they say they’re
going to, white people will not have anything to say," LePage,
who served as governor from 2011 to 2019, said on the Maine
radio station WVOM. "It’s only going to be the minorities that
would elect. It would be California, Texas, Florida."
The former Republican governor made the comments as he discussed
a bill currently being considered in the Maine legislature that
would let Maine join other states seeking to bypass the
Electoral college and award its electoral votes to the winner of
the popular vote nationwide.
The state's Veterans and Legal Affairs Committee will hold a
hearing on the national popular vote bill, which was sponsored
by state Sen. Troy Jackson (D), on Friday, according to the
Maine Beacon.
...
The comments from LePage came the same week Colorado Gov. Jared
Polis (D) said he would sign a measure to let his state bypass
the Electoral College in favor of the national popular vote.
Colorado is set to become the 12th state, in addition to
Washington, D.C., to join a National Popular Vote interstate
compact that wants to award its electoral votes to the
presidential candidate who wins the popular vote.
The compact cannot go into effect until the coalition includes
states that accumulate at least 270 electoral votes. States
included in the coalition would award their electoral votes en
masse to the candidate who wins the national popular vote if it
were to go into effect.[/quote]
I should emphasize that these two approaches are not mutually
obstructional, therefore both should be pursued simultaneously.
Further information:
www.nationalpopularvote.com/
As for LePage, he has spoken before about other issues which
trouble him:
www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/maine-governor-drug-deale
rs-often-impregnate-young-white-girl-n492501
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyXWAhUrm7U
---
On the topic of Texas: I recently reconnected with a friend who
lives over there. Voting came up, and he told me that Texas
would of became a Blue state a long time ago if it weren't for
gerrymandering and the few people who show up to vote, as Texas
has one of the lowest voter turnouts in the country with most of
those voters being Republicans, harassing non-GOP looking voters
outside of the voting booths.
---
There's a bill coming to Congress: HR 1 : the For The People Act
of 2019, that's supposed to fight gerrymandering and lower the
voting age to 16 among other things. That blue shift could be
coming a little faster.
---
Yes:
www.huffpost.com/entry/ayanna-pressley-lower-voting-age_n_5c8014
b0e4b020b54d8194fd
I am liking Pressley more and more.
"That blue shift could be coming a little faster."
OK, so now 2062 instead of 2064. That is still too slow. More
must be done.
Some people seem to think Puerto Rican statehood would help us,
but others think the opposite. Any input here? Would Puerto Rico
be a Blue state if given statehood?
www.tcpalm.com/story/news/local/florida-voices/2018/08/16/could-
new-arrivals-puerto-rico-make-florida-blue-state/911228002/
---
A small step:
www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/mar/8/house-votes-favor-illega
l-immigrant-voting/
Unfortunately in its current form this only applies to local
elections. This needs to be expanded to federal elections.
---
HTML http://www.unz.com/anepigone/teenage-white-males-id-as-gop-by-21-margin/
[quote]On that account it is worth noting that in the survey,
white males under the age of 18 are significantly more
Republican than white males aged 18-29 are (67% to 53% in a
two-way split, respectively).[/quote]
And it is even worse than it looks, because the trend is
rightward drift with increasing age. So these teens will be even
Redder as time goes by.
---
Support for sidelining the Electoral College spreads steadily:
www.npr.org/2019/05/22/725616541/nevada-poised-to-become-15th-st
ate-to-ditch-electoral-college
[quote]With a state Senate vote Tuesday, Nevada is close to
becoming the latest state to drop the traditional practice of
awarding all its electors to the presidential candidate who won
the state. Instead, Nevada would award its six electors to
whomever receives the most votes across the entire country.
According to the National Popular Vote organization, which
oversees efforts to persuade states to join the compact, 14
states and the District of Columbia have agreed to pledge their
189 electors to the winner of the national popular vote —
regardless of which candidate won the state. Nevada's electoral
votes would bring the total to 195. Once 270 electors are
pledged, the compact would kick in.
...
Nevada's Senate voted 12-8 to join the agreement, entirely along
party lines. Every Republican voted against the proposal. Gov.
Steve Sisolak, a Democrat, has not indicated whether he will
sign the measure into law.
As NPR has reported, the popular vote movement seems to be
gathering steam. In February, 11 states were on board. Since
then, Colorado, Delaware and New Mexico have signed on.[/quote]
Could it be in place before the 2020 election?
[attachimg=3]
#Post#: 128--------------------------------------------------
Re: Demographic Blueshift
By: 90sRetroFan Date: July 6, 2020, 12:18 am
---------------------------------------------------------
OLD CONTENT contd.
Texas nearing flipping point?
www.texastribune.org/2019/06/20/texas-hispanic-population-pace-s
urpass-white-residents/
[quote]The gap between Texas’ Hispanic and white populations
continued to narrow last year when the state gained almost nine
Hispanic residents for every additional white resident.
With Hispanics expected to become the largest population group
in Texas as soon as 2022, new population estimates released
Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau showed the Hispanic
population climbed to nearly 11.4 million — an annual gain of
214,736 through July 2018 and an increase of 1.9 million since
2010.
...
The estimates come as lawmakers begin to sharpen their focus on
the 2021 redistricting cycle, when they’ll have to redraw the
state’s congressional and legislative maps to account for
population growth. And they highlight the extent to which the
demographics of the state continue to shift against the
Republican Party.[/quote]
---
HTML https://www.brookings.edu/research/less-than-half-of-us-children-under-15-are-white-census-shows/
[img]
HTML https://i0.wp.com/www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/2019.06.24_metro_frey_census-data_fig-01.png?w=768&crop=0%2C0px%2C100%2C9999px&ssl=1[/img]
[img]
HTML https://i1.wp.com/www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/2019.06.24_metro_frey_census-data_map1.png?w=768&crop=0%2C0px%2C100%2C9999px&ssl=1[/img]
Too slow! If you calculate the differences per decade, the rate
of Blueshift was actually fastest in the 90s (by no coincidence
the most positive decade in living memory), but slowing down
with the post-9/11 era. Unlike some demographers who look only
at the heights of the graphs and hence think there is nothing to
worry about, I always look at gradients. If the gradient is
becoming less steep over time, it could eventually be leading to
a turning point (ICE?). That is what worries me.
Perhaps this could speed things up slightly:
www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/oas-venezuela-migration-largest-w
orld-2020-190628174012682.html
[quote]The Venezuelan exodus may exceed eight million people by
the end of next year, which would make it the largest migration
crisis in the world, according to a special working group of the
Organization of American States (OAS).
The group's projection puts the exodus between 7.5 million and
8.2 million in 2020, far surpassing the 6.7 million people who
in eight years have fled Syria.[/quote]
Hopefully they consider migrating to the US.
---
HTML https://uswhiteclock.org/
---
Can we make it fast enough?
thehill.com/opinion/campaign/451702-texas-may-cost-trump-2020
[quote]There is a significant and growing probability that Texas
will become the most consequential swing state in presidential
and senatorial elections to come. A campaign in the Lone Star
State could cost President Trump the White House next year, even
if Texas voters will ultimately choose him.
A powerful combination of demographic forces are propelling
Texas from one of the reddest states in the union into a swing
state. Democrats will likely make an outside play in Texas ahead
of 2020, along with a full run for its projected 41 electoral
votes. Texas also stands to gain three seats in Congress after
the next census, making it a crucial state for both parties.
Texas demographics today are strikingly similar to those of
California in 1990, before Democrats began their seven to
nothing streak of Golden State victories in presidential races.
Like California in 1990, the Texas population currently hovers
around 29 million and is changing rapidly in light of heavy
immigration from Mexico. The second generation children of
Mexican immigrants have played a major role in keeping
California out of Republican reach. This same transformation is
taking root in Texas.
Immigration has already had a very tangible impact on Texas
politics. While illegal immigrants cannot vote, their children
born in the United States are indeed citizens and make up a
significant share of the new generation of voters in the
southern state. There are around 35 percent of Texans under the
age of 18 who are the children of immigrants, a figure that has
nearly doubled in the last 30 years. This carries weight.
Young Texas voters overwhelmingly turned out for Beto O’Rourke
over incumbent Ted Cruz in the Senate race last year. O’Rourke
beat Cruz with 18 year olds to 24 year olds by a margin of 68
percent to 32 percent and with 25 year olds to 29 year olds by a
margin of 73 percent to 26 percent. O’Rourke also outperformed
the traditional edge Democrats already have among Texas Latino
voters by a wide margin of 64 percent to 35 percent.
With these second generation Mexican Americans strongly
supporting Democrats at the polls, Texas changing to a purple
state could not happen at a more inconvenient time for Trump.
His margin in the state in 2016 was the smallest for a
Republican nominee since the poor showing of Bob Dole in Texas
in 1996. Considering the immense and enduring new wave of left
leaning voters that O’Rourke attracted, there is a real chance
that Texas will be close enough in 2020 that Republicans cannot
take it for granted.
Over the next year, Trump and his surrogates will be forced to
spend more time campaigning in Texas, which will diminish time
spent on the ground in other crucial swing states. Ultimately,
this could be a death knell for the campaign. A major reason
Trump won in 2016 was due to his critical time investment in
states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. He spent
around 50 percent more time in these battleground states than
Hillary Clinton did. A diversion of time and money campaigning
in Texas over the next 15 months could deal a fatal blow to high
hopes for a second term.
Consider the margins in 2016 to see how razor thin the next
election may be. Trump won Michigan by less than 11,000 votes,
Wisconsin by 23,000 votes, and Pennsylvania by just 44,000
votes. These were all margins of less than 1 percent. Democrats
need to take back all three states to win 2020, and whoever gets
the nomination will pour immense energy and resources into each,
which Trump will need to reciprocate. Any diversion of the large
but finite campaign resources to shore up a traditional red
state like Texas will cut into the ability of Trump to win key
swing states.
Moreover, Texas is not just any state. As the second largest in
the nation, by both population and land area, it is an expensive
state in which to run a full campaign. Just ask O’Rourke and
Cruz. The two combined spent nearly $125 million on their 2018
Senate campaigns, with O’Rourke outpacing Cruz by over 50
percent. Furthermore, outside donations and spending did not
just impact the midterm Senate race, with donors also sending
millions of dollars into suddenly competitive House races.
Republicans took note of the sheer volume of Texas votes that
Democrats attracted in the last cycle. A Republican affiliated
group, Engage Texas, is spending $25 million to register and
turn out red voters. Considering the Trump campaign spent $325
million for 2016, the implications of such a drain of resources
are clear well before the general election race begins.
Republicans are already walking a tightrope between the 2018
midterm results and changing demographic realities. In many
ways, the resources used to keep Texas red next year are
balanced by the fates in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Several campaign stops or a late ad buy could mean the
difference in the race. Trump could see his electoral chances go
to hell, if Democrats spend more time and money in
Texas.[/quote]
---
This is good:
www.breitbart.com/economy/2019/07/03/h-1b-lobbyist-u-s-critics-a
re-racist-for-opposing-stealth-transfer-of-college-grad-jobs-to-
indian-migrants/
[quote]
Lobbyists working for thousands of Indian contract workers are
promising to overwhelm GOP Sen. Rand Paul’s opposition to a bill
which puts many Indian temporary workers on a fast-track to
permanent green cards.
“We have lots and lots of doctors in Kentucky, both in
Louisville and in Lexington, and in other cities around
Kentucky, who can all express how important this bill is to
them, and how they literally can’t afford to be doctors
anymore,” said Leon Fresco, a former congressional staffer who
is quarterbacking the contract workers’ campaign for green
cards.
...
Fresco’s bill is titled “Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants,”
and it would abolish the “country caps” which diversify the
annual award of 140,000 green cards to the various foreign
nationals of American companies.
The prime beneficiaries of the “country cap” bill are the many
Indian contract-workers who arrived on temporary H-1B visas, and
who then avoided going home by getting their employers to
nominate them for green cards. At least 200,000 Indians have
already obtained green cards via the employer process during the
last decade.
But the huge number of Indian who volunteered to take Americans’
jobs via the H-1B visas are jammed by the “country cap” on green
cards for Indians. Perhaps 300,000 resident Indian
contract-workers and 300,000 family members are waiting in
several backlogged lines for roughly 23,000 green cards issued
to Indians each year.
If Lee’s bill become law, the Indian share of the employer
green-cards could quickly quadruple to at least 100,000 cards a
year, or 1 million per decade.
That offer of at least 75,000 extra green cards per year would
create a huge incentive for more young Indian graduates to take
U.S. jobs at very low wages.[/quote]
[attachimg=1]
www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/07/12/house-gop-vote-indian-outs
ourcing-threatens-gops-senate-majority/#
[quote]The legislation, HR.1044, claims to promote fairness for
high-skilled contract-workers, dubbed “immigrants” by the
advocates. The bill removes “country caps” which limit Indians’
share of the 120,000 green-cards awarded each year to employees
nominated by their companies. That change would allow Indians to
get roughly 100,000 green cards each year, up from roughly
23,000. The change would allow the 300,000 Indian workers — and
their 300,00 family members — get on a fast track to green
cards, citizenship, and the voting booth.
...
In the medium term– by 2030 — the GOP will also lose more seats
as the Indian migrants become citizens and vote Democratic.
The HR.1044 legislation will add roughly 600,000 Indian voters
to the rolls during the next 10 years. Indians are highly likely
to donate to Democratic causes and to vote Democratic. For
example, the chief Senate sponsor of the bill is Sen. Kamala
Harris, whose mother is Indian.
Roughly 77 percent of Indians supported Democratic candidates in
2016, while only 16 percent said they voted for President Donald
Trump, according to a post-election survey funded by the
National Science Foundation.
A growing population of skilled migrants in a district also
tends to pull American-born voters into the Democratic camp,
said an April 2018 study. “Our strongest and most significant
finding is that an increase in high-skilled immigrants as a
share of the local population is associated with a strong and
significant decrease in the vote share for the Republican
Party,” said the report, authored by pro-migration economist
Giovanni Peri, Anna Maria Mayda, a Georgetown University
professor now at the U.S. State Department, and Walter
Steingress, an economist at the Bank of Canada.[/quote]
#Post#: 129--------------------------------------------------
Re: Demographic Blueshift
By: 90sRetroFan Date: July 6, 2020, 12:26 am
---------------------------------------------------------
OLD CONTENT contd.
Can it happen so soon?
newrepublic.com/article/154723/texas-bracing-blue-wave-2020-yes-
texas
[quote]In what giddy Democrats are calling “the Texodus,” four
Republican members of Congress announced, in short order, that
they won’t be running for reelection in 2020; three of their
seats, all in the suburbs, will likely go Democratic, adding to
the two they took from Republicans in 2018. “We could see other
representatives step away too,” said Manny Garcia, executive
director of the Texas Democratic Party. “Why would you go into a
knockdown, drag-out fight when you’re either going to lose next
time, or soon afterward?”
...
And then there was President Trump and the terrorism in El Paso.
By 2022, Latino Texans are projected to outnumber whites, and
the rising majority won’t soon forget the mass murder by a
gunman, apparently inspired by Trump’s rhetoric, who took
advantage of the state’s insanely lax gun laws. Nor will it
forget the way the president put a target on the city’s back,
falsely claiming in this year’s State of the Union that El Paso
was “one of our nation’s most dangerous cities” before the
border barriers went up, then amplifying the message in a rally
there a few weeks later. “Murders, murders, murders!” Trump
cried out as he talked about immigrants, while his fans chanted,
“Build the wall!”
...
Cal Jillson, a venerable political scientist at Southern
Methodist University, is among those who think this president
has accelerated the Democratic comeback in Texas. “My sense
pre-Trump was that there were demographic dynamics that were
going to bring two-party competition at some point,” he said. “I
thought it would take another 15 to 20 years. But Trump has
brought all that forward. It’s happening much more quickly.”
...
nobody in Texas, aside from a few blinkered Republicans,
believes that Democrats won’t continue to loosen the Republican
stranglehold in 2020. At least half a dozen Republican seats in
Congress will be ripe for the taking, and Democrats have a
realistic chance of capturing the nine Republican seats in the
state House they need to gain a majority—just in time for the
next round of redistricting in 2021. If they regain a toehold of
power in Austin, and can prevent Republicans from having total
control over gerrymandering, Democrats could turn Texas blue in
a hurry; if not, it’ll probably be a more gradual process over
the next decade, with strict voter ID and other forms of
suppression still intact, and districts artificially tilted in
Republicans’ favor.[/quote]
---
Trump's behaviour might actually be helping us:
news.yahoo.com/trumps-fake-accent-angers-asian-201830232.html
[quote]When Amanda Berg heard reports that President Donald
Trump mocked the accents of the leaders of South Korea and Japan
at a recent fundraiser, it brought back painful memories from
her childhood.
Berg, a Korean American who grew up in Fort Collins, Colorado,
recalled kids doing the "stereotypical pulling at the eyes and
the mocking accent." It made her feel like she was a foreigner
in her own community.
Berg, a registered Democrat, is among a growing and crucial bloc
of Asian American voters leaning further to the left in the age
of Trump, and his stunt, reported by the New York Post, angered
her and many others.
...
The Asian American voting-age population has more than doubled
in the past two decades, leaping from 4.3 million in 1998 to
11.1 million in 2018 according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A
majority of those new voters lean Democratic.
By 2016, some Asian ethnic groups that had leaned Republican
shifted into the Democratic camp, said Natalie Masuoka, an
associate professor of political science and Asian American
studies at the University of California, Los Angeles. A larger
share of Asian American Republicans voted for John McCain in
2008 than for Trump in 2016.
A Pew Research Center survey said 53% of Asian American
registered voters in 1998 identified with the Democratic Party.
That figure rose to 65% in 2017.
...
"He's willing to use Asian stereotypes, Asian accents in his
public speeches," Masuoka said. "In that way ... the way
Americans are talking about race is now shifting possibly back
to what historically was effective before the civil rights
revolution" — explicit and sometimes offensive talk about race.
The New York Post reported that Trump imitated South Korea
President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe,
both close U.S. allies, at a fundraiser in the Hamptons this
month. Trump used a fake accent to boast about Moon relenting in
negotiations over the costs of U.S. military aid to South Korea
and when rehashing talks with Abe had about trade tariffs,
according to the newspaper.
Trump has imitated Asian people before. At an August 2015
campaign rally in Iowa, he talked about his ability to deal with
Asian negotiators and used broken English, saying, "When these
people walk into the room ... they say 'We want deal!'"[/quote]
---
Data:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OXOCps4WHRKX90ArDbxQoRGyz9zcfkwJ
PWm45tmDE2M/edit#gid=0
Additional information:
www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/08/21/u-s-counties-majority-n
onwhite/
Apparel:
[img]
HTML https://scontent.fhkg3-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/p960x960/53761916_575241109645911_4813284688015654912_o.jpg?_nc_cat=101&_nc_sid=2d5d41&_nc_oc=AQknKKjdihNNoWVmrBQ6AsCt_XHZvRpLXQsmLmVhtqpb-gXdhB0VXR3XshTM8Kiy0uk&_nc_ht=scontent.fhkg3-2.fna&_nc_tp=6&oh=ec1a3bc9151183162e66da4ad9698ea0&oe=5F293C1E[/img]
Purchase here:
www.wewillreplaceyou.com/
I want to see these hats become more common than MAGA hats
before the 2020 election season begins. Please share widely!
---
Texas also continues to look more and more like a swing state:
www.univision.com/univision-news/politics/univision-news-poll-de
mocrats-surge-in-texas-no-longer-a-safe-state-for-trump-in-2020
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxUAi-yhreU
---
Distribution matters:
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/09/american-migration-pat
terns-should-terrify-gop/598153/
[quote]Liberals in America have a density problem. Across the
country, Democrats dominate in cities, racking up excessive
margins in urban cores while narrowly losing in suburban
districts and sparser states. Because of their uneven
distribution of votes, the party consistently loses federal
elections despite winning the popular vote.
The most famous case was in 2016, when Hillary Clinton lost the
presidential election despite her 2.4-million-vote margin.
Clinton carried Manhattan and Brooklyn by approximately 1
million ballots—more than Donald Trump’s margins of victory in
the states of Florida, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina,
Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania combined.
...
Democrats can blame the Electoral College for these losses—as
they should. But according to the Stanford political scientist
Jonathan Rodden’s new book, Why Cities Lose, the problem isn’t
just the districting. It’s the density. All over the world,
liberal, college-educated voters pack into cities, where they
dilute their own voting power through excessive concentration.
“Underrepresentation of the urban left in national legislatures
and governments has been a basic feature of all industrialized
countries that use winner-take-all elections,” he writes.
So just imagine what would happen to the American political
picture if more Democrats moved out of their excessively liberal
enclaves to redistribute themselves more evenly across the vast
expanse of Red America?
...
Two weeks ago, I published an article on what I called the urban
exodus. More specifically, it is a blue urban exodus, as
left-leaning metros in blue states are losing population. The
New York City metro area is shrinking by 277 people every day.
Other areas bleeding thousands of net movers each year include
Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Jose, San Diego, Chicago,
Boston, and Baltimore—all in states that routinely vote for
Democrats by wide margins.
These movers are U-Hauling to ruddier states in the South and
West. The five fastest-growing metros of the past few
years—Dallas, Phoenix, Houston, Atlanta, and Orlando,
Florida—are in states won by Trump. The other metro areas with a
population of at least 1 million that grew by at least 1.5
percent last year were Las Vegas; Austin, Texas; Orlando,
Florida; Raleigh, North Carolina; Jacksonville, Florida;
Charlotte, North Carolina; San Antonio; Tampa, Florida; and
Nashville, Tennessee. All of those metros are in red or purple
states.
...
This drip-drip-drip of young residents trickling down into
red-state suburbs is helping to turn southern metros into
Democratic strongholds. (Of course, migration isn’t the only
factor pushing these metros leftward, but more on that later.)
In Texas, Democrats’ advantage in the five counties representing
Houston, Dallas–Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Austin (the “Texas
Five” in the graph below) grew from 130,000 in the 2012
presidential election to nearly 800,000 in the 2018 Senate
election.[/quote]
---
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-nr8Gp55nQ
---
www.alternet.org/2019/10/republicans-realize-theyre-losing-groun
d-in-texas-the-base-is-shrinking-period/
[quote]Texas is still a red state, but at this point, it’s light
red rather than deep red. The fact that Sen. Ted Cruz defeated
Democrat Beto O’Rourke by a mere 2% in the 2018 midterms was a
troubling sign for the Texas GOP, and in a report for Axios,
journalist Alexi McCammond notes that Lone Star Republicans are
troubled by the departure of six members of the U.S. House of
Representatives who won’t be seeking reelection in Texas in
2020.
“The 2018 midterms spooked Texas Republicans after they lost two
congressional seats, saw closer-than-expected margins in a
number of other races, and watched Beto O’Rourke surf a blue
wave built in part on the state’s shifting demographics,”
McCammond notes. And now, according to McCammond, “the six-pack
of GOP retirements in one cycle is hard to ignore.”
One of those departures is Rep. Will Hurd, the only
African-American Republican in the House of Representatives.
McCammond quotes a dire warning from Hurd about the GOP: “The
base is shrinking. Period. End of story.”
Until Democrats start winning more statewide races in Texas, it
will be premature to describe Texas as a swing state.
Republicans still have the advantage in Texas’ statewide races,
but as O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign shows, that advantage is
shrinking. And in U.S. House races, Democrats can perform quite
well in parts of Texas — which is why, as McCammond reports, the
GOP is aggressively trying to register more Republican voters in
the Lone Star State.
A GOP strategist in Texas, interviewed on condition of
anonymity, told Axios, “We need a new Republican Party because
the one we have is getting our asses kicked in House races.”
In the 2000s, many Democratic strategists viewed Texas as a lost
cause for their party when it came to statewide races. But times
have changed. And the 2018 midterms made it clear that President
Donald Trump is not universally loved in that state.
McCammond concludes the Axios article by noting how increasingly
bullish Democratic strategists are on their prospects in Texas.
“It’s truly a sign of the times that Democrats think Texas in
2020 could mimic California in 2018 — where the party picked up
seven GOP seats and helped Dems win back the House, ” McCammond
reports.[/quote]
New site:
texasbluestate.com/
HTML https://texasbluestate.com/images/artwork.jpg
---
HTML https://axios.com/republican-party-demographics-threat-trump-racism-1524a8a1-c2f1-4183-896f-107420e2d50a.html
---
www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/record-32-million-
hispanics-ready-to-vote-largest-minority-in-2020
[quote]The percentage of Hispanics eligible to vote in the
upcoming 2020 presidential election has surged nearly 20% since
2016 when Hillary Clinton took 66% of the Latino vote.
...
In an analysis of the federal data, the Pew Research Center said
that there are a “record” 32 million Latinos eligible to vote in
2020. That is an increase from 27.3 million in 2016.
“The 2020 election will mark the first time that Hispanics will
be the largest racial and ethnic minority group in the
electorate, accounting for just over 13% of eligible voters,”
said Pew’s FactTank.
The growth in Hispanic voters comes as a result of the surge in
the Latino population.
It was about 60 million in 2018, up from 47.8 million in 2008.
Hispanics make up 18% of the U.S. population, up from 5% in
1970, said Pew.
The group has been divided over President Trump and his efforts
to end illegal immigration across the U.S.-Mexico border.
Overall, Hispanics do not support the president.
In 2016, he won about one-third of the Hispanic vote, but recent
surveys show that dropping to one-fifth as the 2020 election
nears.[/quote]
[img]
HTML https://scontent.fhkg3-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/p960x960/53439709_573651773138178_5100867503358214144_o.jpg?_nc_cat=111&_nc_sid=2d5d41&_nc_oc=AQmlbDsubeKGHaVo3gm5hZqcRDVWKeE-MkTceG1a1E4IoPLIai58UC1xNFPBKyWxG-o&_nc_ht=scontent.fhkg3-2.fna&_nc_tp=6&oh=488a1620faf783e3f1e5ac3902f39a43&oe=5F27C027[/img]
---
HTML https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/outlook/article/Parker-For-non-whites-Trumpism-has-been-a-14299124.php
---
A preview of our enemies' most likely countermeasure as
Demographic Blueshift proceeds:
vdare.com/articles/separating-illinois-from-cook-county-would-he
lp-save-the-historic-american-nation
[quote]Illinois is one of the safest Democrat states in
presidential elections. Hillary Clinton crushed Donald Trump in
2016, 55.4 percent to 39.4. But Clinton’s margin of victory came
from Cook County, where she beat Trump by nearly 1.1 million
votes. [2016 Illinois Presidential Election Results, Politico,
December 12, 2016] There, Clinton shellacked Trump by more than
50 points, 74.4-21.4.
Outside Cook County though, Clinton pulled just 1.45 million
votes—more than 200,000 fewer than Trump’s nearly 1.7 million.
Consider what those figures would mean for Trump if Illinois had
split before the 2020 presidential election.
General consensus is, a Trump win next year requires one of
these three states that he won in 2016 by using the Sailer
Strategy and mobilizing working class whites: Michigan,
Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania.
Although conventional wisdom might say Ohio, Florida and Arizona
are swing states, they are probably safe. Trump won Ohio by 8.13
percentage points; it’s reddening. In 2018, a down-year for
Republicans, former Florida Governor Rick Scott unseated
incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson in last year’s Senate election.
Meanwhile, former Rep. Ron DeSantis was elected governor of
Florida over race-baiting Democrat Andrew Gillum. And the last
Democrat to win Arizona in a presidential election without a
serious Third Party challenger was Harry Truman in 1948.
If Trump holds Nebraska’s and Maine’s second congressional
districts, he has 260 electoral votes. Now, add “New Illinois”
to the mix. Trump would need only one of the big four—”New
Illinois,” Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania—for an easy
victory and re-election. In 2016, his margin of victory in an
Illinois sans Cook County would have been far better than it was
in any of the three “Blue Wall” states he flipped.[/quote]
This is nothing but gerrymandering on an enlarged scale!
If the Electoral College were abolished, none of this would
matter, of course (which is why this should be done ASAP). But
so long as the Electoral College is still around, we must make
sure that such initiatives to re-draw state boundaries in ways
designed to help Red candidates fail to get off the ground.
---
If we manage to flip Texas, however, then rightists will start
calling for abolishing the Electoral College.
Here is a leftist really thinking outside the box:
www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/08/21/we-used-to-c
ount-black-americans-as-35-of-a-person-instead-of-reparations-gi
ve-them-53-of-a-vote/
---
We know we are succeeding when we are annoying Coulter:
www.huffpost.com/entry/abrar-omeish-ghazala-hashmi-virginia-elec
tions_n_5dc24165e4b08b735d61f96d
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tojyzIZhlpE
[attachimg=1]
#Post#: 130--------------------------------------------------
Re: Demographic Blueshift
By: 90sRetroFan Date: July 6, 2020, 12:40 am
---------------------------------------------------------
OLD CONTENT contd.
www.waynedupree.com/shia-muslim-march-tlaib-district/
[quote]Thousands of Shia Muslims took to the streets of
Dearborn, reportedly in Rashida Tlaib’s district, and marched.
...
Because of the racial breakdowns, that district is so reliably
Democratic that Republicans don’t even bother running for its
empty seat in Congress.[/quote]
All of the US could be like this. We are here to make it so.
[img]
HTML https://scontent.fhkg3-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/52494483_565653213938034_4664832300230377472_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&_nc_sid=dd9801&_nc_oc=AQlXYNBoG_YiJ3ELA9gugDv0z3GPwJKpuRlFrAgoFpKejx80AabnwsauioTnXVK7riA&_nc_ht=scontent.fhkg3-2.fna&oh=f4c0e66b83164df0c61b27d2392df3a5&oe=5F29114E[/img]
---
Another reminder that Demographic Blueshift is not just about
improving the quality of the voting population, but also about
providing access to better candidates:
www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/jessica-cisneros-2020s-aoc-215200571.htm
l
[quote]When people ask me, "Why did you become an immigration
attorney?" it's because of that, the fact that I was born into
this very cross-cultural environment, this unique area of the
country right on the border. My elementary school was right next
to the river, and in the mornings, we could see families
crossing into the United States. I remember saying I could not
spot a difference between a mom and her child, and me and my
mom. I know that my citizenship is a privilege. To many folks
who are on the border, we know our lives could've been very
different had we been born five minutes south of where we were.
As you can imagine, being an immigration attorney under Trump
was a very difficult and heartbreaking experience. You go in
there and the odds are already stacked against you, but under
the Trump administration, it just felt like it was almost
impossible to win cases and keep families together. It got to
the point where I was trying to console one too many families. I
thought, if they keep telling me that the law is a problem, then
I'm going to go to Congress and change it.
Now I'm still making my case, but instead of being in a
courtroom in front of a judge, I'm in a district and the voters
are the judges.
I was nominated to run for office by my high school teacher; I
think he saw Justice Democrats recruiting and thought of me. I
got a call from Justice Democrats, and they asked about my roots
to my community and what I believed we should be doing here in
South Texas.[/quote]
---
[attachimg=1]
HTML https://i.imgur.com/2YH3pGM.png
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9j_dLT0WDQ
[img]
HTML https://scontent.fhkg3-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/p960x960/53730294_574845966352092_2599629458138726400_o.jpg?_nc_cat=104&_nc_sid=2d5d41&_nc_oc=AQnlZqSOUWgbqa--3ofDkbVz24POxUdmTMnXIuiUfrqOwxypoMSMNqumiekfy1zhn_U&_nc_ht=scontent.fhkg3-1.fna&_nc_tp=6&oh=7fbd21ebe601ee2b71ea8fa6d07af2a5&oe=5F273B95[/img]
Buy merchandise here:
www.wewillreplaceyou.com/product-category/all/
---
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlJg2h2NrTM
---
I am a bit confused. You say that ethnicity does not matter, but
why do demographic trends seem to show predominantly “non white”
ethnicities voting left wing.
---
Because they are the victims of "white" racism, therefore they
are more likely to vote for the party they perceive as more
sincerely interested in defending them. This is the result not
of ethnicity mattering, but of racists behaving as if ethnicity
mattered.
Here is Stacey Abrams explaining the same point:
[attachimg=2]
If ethnicity itself did matter (in the biological sense), then
we should expect a "non-white" ethnicity more closely
ancestrally related to "whites" voting more like "whites" than
like a more ancestrally distant "non-white" ethnicity. For
example, we should expect Americans of Palestinian ancestry (who
are far more closely ancestrally related to Anglos than to
Bantus):
[attachimg=3]
voting more like "whites" than like "blacks". But in reality,
they vote more like "blacks", because they have a more similar
historical experience as victims of Western colonialism.
---
Ah now I see. I recall a post on the main blog where a
rightist’s claim that all “non whites” behave tribally was
refuted with an example of Mexicans and Arabs, both groups with
”non white” ancestry, opposing the Iraq War.
---
Yes. Which is not to say that rightists of one "non-white"
ethnicity do not display bigotry towards another "non-white"
ethnicities. But when they do, it is emphatically not because of
tribalism, but because of Eurocentrism (ie. thinking that by
doing so they can make themselves appear "whiter"). And they
also display bigotry towards their own ethnicity for the same
reason. This is what we are here to change.
---
And now for an encouraging chart:
[attachimg=4]
Demographic Blueshift works for more than just votes. Hopefully
among under-18s Muslims are already viewed more positively than
Jews.
#Post#: 131--------------------------------------------------
Re: Demographic Blueshift
By: 90sRetroFan Date: July 6, 2020, 12:49 am
---------------------------------------------------------
OLD CONTENT contd.
Another way Demographic Blueshift works:
nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/study-finds-immigration-will-shif
t-electoral-college-favor-democrats-108131
[quote]A new analysis finds that immigration will dramatically
reshape the Electoral College map in favor of the Democratic
Party after completion of the 2020 census.
Rising immigrant populations around the United States will
result in several solidly Democratic states gaining more seats
in the House of Representatives at the expense of solidly
Republican states, the study by the Center for Immigration
Studies finds. The shift ultimately will give the Democratic
Party more influence in the Electoral College, CIS says.
...
Of the 26 seats predicted to shift, 24 are expected to be taken
away from states that voted for Donald Trump in the 2016
election. Ohio is expected to lose three seats; Pennsylvania and
Michigan likely will lose two; and 18 states likely will lose
one seat: Arkansas, Alabama, Idaho, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana,
Louisiana, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Mississippi,
South Carolina, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah,
Wisconsin, and West Virginia, according to the study.
California, already a behemoth of the Electoral College, is
predicted to gain 11 seats after the 2020 census is completed.
New York likely will gain four more seats. New Jersey likely
will come out with two more seats, and Massachusetts and
Illinois likely will each gain one more seat.
The only traditionally red state to see gains is Texas, which is
expected to notch four more House seats. Florida, which is
considered a swing state but trends toward the GOP, will earn
three more seats, under the CIS analysis. Rhode Island and
Minnesota are expected to lose one congressional district
each.[/quote]
And once we flip Texas too (plus Florida?), then we are all set.
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rl9ORX8KSuQ
---
www.wsj.com/articles/demographic-shift-poised-to-test-trumps-202
0-strategy-11578047402
[quote]“President Trump’s 2020 election strategy relies largely
on the white, working-class base that he excited in 2016. But he
faces a demographic challenge: The electorate has changed since
he was last on the ballot in ways likely to benefit Democrats,”
the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Working-class, white voters are projected to decline by 2.3
percentage points nationally as a share of eligible voters,
compared with the last election, because they are older and
therefore dying at a faster rate than are Democratic groups. As
those voters pass on, they are most likely to be replaced by
those from minority groups or young, white voters with college
degrees—groups that lean Democratic.”
“That means Mr. Trump will have to coax more votes from a
shrinking base—or else find more votes in other parts of the
electorate.”[/quote]
Of course I am emphatically not saying we have the 2020 election
in the bag, especially with Red countermeasures in play.
But if Trump does lose, hopefully the next Red candidate will
return to the pre-Trump approach of trying to appeal more
broadly, which might help move the entire political discussion
slightly closer back to sanity.
---
Some nice pictures:
[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]
---
We are too concentrated in small areas!
[attachimg=3]
Even within Blue states, many counties are Red. We should
encourage intra-state migration from Blue counties into Red
counties.
---
Some rightists are more pessimistic than we are optimistic about
our strategy:
www.americanfreedomunion.com/letters-to-the-editor-44/
[quote]The GOP is Finished
Demographics will determine everything.
Trump carried Georgia by only 3% in 2016; Hillary received 47%.
Running for governor, Stacey Abrams – who is far more radical
and openly White-hating than Clinton or Sanders – got 48.5% two
years later, thereby cutting Trump’s margin in half.
Trump won’t carry Georgia in 2020 and neither will any other
potential GOP nominee.
Trump carried Florida by a whisker. Florida enfranchised 1.4
million felons by referendum in the last election. Hundreds of
thousands of these people will be voting Democrat by a margin of
9 to 1.
3,000 Puerto Ricans per day swarmed into Florida for many months
in the wake of the 2017 hurricane that ravaged Puerto Rico.
Thanks to our first “globalist” president, William McKinley,
they are all “U.S. citizens” and they will be voting in Florida
in 2020. The hundreds of thousands of felons plus several
hundred thousand Puerto Ricans plus other immigrants plus newly
matured non-Whites equals a Democrat landslide victory in
Florida.
The GOP will never carry Florida again – not merely for the
presidency but for any state-wide race. Florida is the new
California.
Beto O’Rourke, running as an avowed “progressive,” i.e., an open
borders White-hating socialist, got 48.5% of the vote in Texas
in 2018. In 2020 several hundred thousand more non-Whites will
be voting in Texas and scores of thousands of old Whites who
voted for Trump will be dead.
The GOP can write off Texas.
Trump carried several states by only a few thousand votes. Four
more years of explosive non-White growth and White die-off will
have extinguished any chance of the Republican Party carrying
those states.
Georgia + Florida + Texas + the razor-thin victory states of
2016 = an inevitable victory for the Democrats in 2020.
And for every year thereafter.
It’s over.[/quote]
Again, I do not encourage assuming we already have it in the
bag. We can still lose 2020 if turnout is insufficient.
---
[quote]Why Texans Don’t Want Any More Californians
Migrants from the Golden State could change the character of
their new homes.
In 2016, President Donald Trump swept the Republican primary
with a simple message: Build a wall to keep out the immigrants.
Today, a new anti-migration theme is sweeping the country: Build
a wall to keep out the Californians.
But is the California Exodus real?
From one perspective, the answer is very clearly yes. In 2012,
California gained 113,000 people on net through domestic and
international migration. Last year, California lost 40,000
people on net to migration, according to its own demographers.
The state still grew, thanks to births, but at the lowest rate
on record. Now the U.S. state most synonymous with all varieties
of growth—vegetal, technological, and human—is at the precipice
of its first-ever population decline.[/quote]
Thank God the population is declining in California, I cannot
even recognize the city I grew up in anymore.... lol!
[quote]But now the state is at an inflection point, between its
history as a ruby-red conservative stronghold and its future as
a more mixed state with blue metros and red rural areas. In this
context, the next SoCal family that U-Hauls into North Texas
isn’t just some nice couple with different taste in barbecue;
instead, they’re potentially the demographic straw that breaks
the GOP’s back.[/quote]
www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/01/the-truth-about-the-ca
lifornia-exodus/605833/
---
[img width=1084
height=1280]
HTML https://static.politico.com/62/0c/d892afbd46dfa79c11c678f89bd9/old-states-desktop.jpg[/img]
[img width=1280
height=602]
HTML https://static.politico.com/31/e0/79656bc74aa995c1081314604166/new-states-desktop.jpg[/img]
---
[quote]Exclusive: Ahead of 2020 election, a 'Blue Wave' is
rising in the cities, polling analysis shows
NEW YORK (Reuters) - As Republican President Donald Trump seeks
a second term in November, Americans’ interest in voting is
growing faster in large cities dominated by Democrats than in
conservative rural areas, according to an analysis of
Reuters/Ipsos national opinion polls.[/quote]
www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-enthusiasm-exclusive/exc
lusive-ahead-of-2020-election-a-blue-wave-is-rising-in-the-citie
s-polling-analysis-shows-idUSKBN20D1EG
---
Also:
www.yahoo.com/news/trump-defense-red-state-bastion-090000866.htm
l
[quote](Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump is on the defensive in
Arizona, where he’s set to rally voters on Wednesday as an
influx of new residents challenge the president’s hold on the
Republican-dominated state.
Arizona’s expanding state economy and low unemployment should
help Trump in a state he won by more than 3 percentage points in
2016, but there are significant warning signs for the president.
...
Arizona has been among the fastest growing states, threatening
the GOP’s dominance. As of July 1, 2019, the U.S. Census Bureau
estimated there were 7,278,717 residents, up 4.8% from July
2016.
The number of minorities, especially Hispanics, has been
increasing and some estimates suggest that minorities will be in
the majority by 2030. Minority voters are more likely to support
Democrats.[/quote]
---
Jason Johnson on Roseanne Barr (Jew) being fired from ABC: A
"Blue Wave" is coming:
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kL1DTibzuqo
This is what we have been saying all along! As demographics
shift, even Jew owned networks have to superficially shift in a
leftist direction in order to cater to their audience, out of
fear of losing their market share!
#Post#: 132--------------------------------------------------
Re: Demographic Blueshift
By: 90sRetroFan Date: July 6, 2020, 12:58 am
---------------------------------------------------------
OLD CONTENT contd.
www.yahoo.com/news/idaho-turning-little-blue-primary-142447120.h
tml
[quote]BOISE, Idaho (AP) — Idaho last year was the nation's
fastest-growing state, with close to 37,000 new residents
boosting its population to nearly 1.8 million.
In the past decade, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, the
deeply conservative state has seen a population jump of more
than 200,000. Studies indicate many have come from
liberal-leaning California, Oregon and Washington.
But are those new residents bringing blue-state politics? Or are
they Republicans fleeing the coast for conservative Idaho?
...
“We've definitely seen some areas like Boise becoming bluer in
the last few years,” she said. “More conservative voters are
moving into Canyon County and northern Idaho.”
Yet Democrats see the possibility of a bluish tinge appearing in
Idaho following its 2.1% population increase last year. The
House, for example, went from 11 to 14 Democrats in the 2018
election. Democrats flipped four urban district seats, but lost
an urban district in northern Idaho after the incumbent Democrat
ran for governor.
Voter-driven ballot initiatives have also become a major focus
in the state. After years of inaction by Republican lawmakers,
Idaho residents in 2018 with 62% approved an initiative
expanding Medicaid, a move opposed by conservative lawmakers.
In response, Republicans in the House and Senate last year tried
to make the initiative process nearly impossible, so they could
head off future left-leaning measures such as raising the
minimum wage and legalizing marijuana. But Republican Gov. Brad
Little vetoed the legislation amid concerns a federal court
could rule such restrictions unconstitutional and dictate the
state's initiative process.
Overall, though, Republicans hold all five statewide elected
offices, including governor, and hold super-majorities in both
the Idaho House and Senate. Both of Idaho's U.S. House seats and
both U.S. Senate seats are also occupied by Republicans.
Democratic House Minority Leader Ilana Rubel of Boise said she's
not sure which way the "in-migration is tilting," but she thinks
it will be a wash.[/quote]
---
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsvHiEAv1rY
---
www.politico.com/news/2020/04/23/how-coronavirus-could-upend-202
0-battlegrounds-204708
[quote]
Study: Elderly Trump voters dying of coronavirus could cost him
in November
...
Academic researchers writing in a little-noticed public
administration journal — Administrative Theory & Praxis —
conclude that when considering nothing other than the tens of
thousands of deaths projected from the virus, demographic shifts
alone could be enough to swing crucial states to Joe Biden in
the fall.
“The pandemic is going to take a greater toll on the
conservative electorate leading into this election — and that’s
simply just a calculation of age,” Andrew Johnson, the lead
author and a professor of management at Texas A&M
University-Corpus Christi, said in an interview. “The virus is
killing more older voters, and in many states that’s the key to
a GOP victory.”
Johnson and his colleagues Wendi Pollock and Beth M. Rauhaus
projected that even with shelter-in-place orders remaining in
effect, about 11,000 more Republicans than Democrats who are 65
and older could die before the election in both Michigan and
North Carolina.
In Pennsylvania, should the state return to using only social
distancing to fight infections, over 13,000 more Republican than
Democratic voters in that age category could be lost.
...
Trump supporters, especially in Greater Appalachia, tend to be
older and heavier, traits correlated with underlying conditions
that make Covid-19 more lethal, he said. Smoking levels —
another leading indicator of vulnerability — also tend to be
higher in red areas.
...
Researchers on the fatality study said they found the virus
could also ravage Republicans across Florida and Georgia, where
GOP leaders have been pulling back on aggressive defenses. The
study looked at total anticipated deaths on a statewide basis,
which accounted for spiraling projections of the virus in
densely populated urban areas that are home to more Democrats.
Still, there are caveats beyond the death figures used:
Researchers used national fatality rates because deaths by state
were scant when they started. They similarly applied national
percentages of voters by age, not state-by-state figures. But
Johnson noted that could actually understate effects in places
like Florida, where the GOP relies more heavily on older
voters.[/quote]
HTML https://www.salon.com/2020/05/12/leaked-white-house-data-shows-infections-spiking-more-than-1000-in-rural-areas-that-backed-trump/
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2vwqbdMVvI
---
[attachimg=1]
---
Michelle Obama gets it:
www.yahoo.com/news/michelle-obama-mad-black-voters-140149775.htm
l
[quote]she talks about how painful it is to her that black
voters didn’t turn out to vote for Hillary Clinton, calling the
decision not to vote more painful to her than those who voted
for Trump.
“It takes some energy to go high, and we were exhausted from it.
Because when you are the first black anything…” she said,
referencing anecdotes from her Becoming book. “So the day I left
the White House and I write about how painful it was to sit on
that [inauguration] stage. A lot of our folks didn’t vote. It
was almost like a slap in the face.”
“I understand the people who voted for Trump,” she continued.
“The people who didn’t vote at all, the young people, the women,
that’s when you think, man, people think this is a game. It
wasn’t just in this election. Every midterm. Every time Barack
didn’t get the Congress he needed, that was because our folks
didn’t show up. After all that work, they just couldn’t be
bothered to vote at all. That’s my trauma.”[/quote]
Demographic Blueshift without turnout is meaningless.
---
Our enemies' despair is our best encouragement:
vdare.com/articles/ga-about-to-turn-blue-because-of-immigration-
why-are-gov-brian-kemp-gop-elite-except-for-sen-perdue-asleep
[quote]A GOP poll has Trump leading Joe Biden by just one point
in a formerly solid red state [Internal GOP poll points to
troubling signs for Georgia Republicans, by Greg Bluestein, The
Atlanta-Journal Constitution, May 1, 2020]. But the Stupid Party
seems wedded to the crazy idea that inside every immigrant is a
Republican waiting to get out.
“The demographic moves against us,” Perdue told supporters in a
leaked off-the-record phone call late last week [GOP senator
gives activists grim 2020 assessment amid fears over holding
Senate, by Alex Rogers and Manu Raju, CNN, April 29, 2020].
...
When Perdue won in 2014 by 8 points, 74 percent of whites voted
for him. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp won the same proportion of
whites in 2018, yet only beat Democratic opponent Stacey Abrams
by a little more than 1 point.
That’s because the electorate went from 64 percent white to 60
percent in just four years, and the number of white registered
voters has dropped from 62 percent in 2016 to 59 today.
Hispanic and Asian immigrants, the only two groups growing in
registered voters, drove the shift in such places as Gwinnett
County, once a GOP fortress [Rise of young and diverse Georgia
voters may influence 2020 elections, by Mark Niesse, The
Atlanta-Journal Constitution, February 11, 2020].
Recent census data show that the county’s white population has
declined 3.4 percentage points since 2010, while the nonwhite
population jumped more than 7 percentage points [Gwinnett’s
nonwhite populations continue to grow, Census says, by Amanda C.
Coyne, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, June 21, 2019].
The county is now just 39 percent white, basically thanks to
immigration: 25 percent of its residents are foreign-born. In
1980, when the county was 96 percent white, less than 2 percent
were foreign born [Duluth’s ‘Demographic Destiny Train’, by
Adina Solomon, Curbed, November 13, 2019].
Mitt Romney won Gwinnett by almost 10 points in 2012. But just
four years later, the walls came tumbling down. Hillary Clinton
won Gwinnett, as did Stacey Abrams in 2018—and not by a thin
margin. She crushed Kemp by 14 points there in the 2018
gubernatorial election.
Unsurprisingly, Democrats eagerly champion the demographic
change. Once immigration drives enough whites from the state and
the bitter-enders are outnumbered, it’s over for the Party of
Trump.
“In every way, that benefits the Democratic Party,” said Scott
Hogan, the Democratic Party’s executive director. “Georgia is in
play. The state is going to go blue. It’s just a matter of when”
[Rise of young and diverse Georgia voters may influence 2020
elections, by Mark Niesse, February 11, 2020].[/quote]
Still, sooner is better than later.
---
Another reason we need as much Demographic Blueshift as possible
as quickly as possible:
[attachimg=2]
[attachimg=3]
---
We can do it (provided we get turnout)!
www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/immigration/item/32675-will-9-new-
hispanics-for-every-1-new-white-in-texas-end-gop-presidential-ch
ances
[quote]Governor Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) just predicted that the
national GOP is headed for the “waste bin of history” because
our whole country is becoming like his Golden State. Now come
new census estimates that may prove him a prophet: Texas, a
must-win state for Republicans in presidential elections, is
experiencing demographic change that will eventually turn it
left.
Non-Hispanic whites are currently still a plurality in Texas.
But this will soon change owing to, among other demographic
phenomena, the state having gained nine new Hispanics for every
one new non-Hispanic white in 2018. As the Texas Tribune
reports:
With Hispanics expected to become the largest population group
in Texas as soon as 2022, new population estimates released
Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau showed the Hispanic
population climbed to nearly 11.4 million — an annual gain of
214,736 through July 2018 and an increase of 1.9 million since
2010.
The white population, meanwhile, grew by just 24,075 last year.
Texas still has a bigger white population — up to 11.9 million
last year — but it has only grown by roughly 484,000 since 2010.
The white population’s growth has been so sluggish this decade
that it barely surpassed total growth among Asian Texans, who
make up a tiny share of the total population, in the same time
period.
Asian-descent Texans’ population has actually increased the most
percentagewise — 49 percent since 2010. Other major groups’
percentage increases since that year are Hispanics, 20; blacks,
19; and whites, 4.
This is significant not just because it perhaps means a more
interesting panoply of restaurants, but because racial/ethnic
identification strongly correlates with voting patterns. While
Republicans derive approximately 90 percent of their votes from
non-Hispanic whites — a group whose population share is
shrinking nationwide — the “minority” groups in question cast
ballots for Democrats by about 70 to 90 percent margins.
This demographic change is particularly impactful in regard to
Texas because it is a GOP must-win in presidential contests.
Consider: The Democrats already have as sure wins three of the
five states offering the most electoral votes: California, 55;
New York, 29; and Illinois, 20. Add to that 104 total other
sure-win states, and the Democrats have well more than half the
number necessary, which is 270, to win presidential elections.
Moreover, add a decent percentage of Democrat-leaning states,
and you’ll know why it has recently been said that the
Republicans have “a narrow path to the White House.” Now, remove
Texas from the GOP column, and, well, the Grand Old Party will
be the Grand Dead Party.
I discuss this more in-depth in my 2012 piece “Does the GOP’s
Demographic Death Spiral End in a Texas Graveyard?” But here’s
the simplest way to relate the truth in question: Without Texas,
Donald Trump in 2016 and G.W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 would have
lost. Another way of putting it is: The Republicans wouldn’t
have won a presidential election in 30 years — not since 1988.
And they won’t win one ever again if Texas is flipped. (Note
here: For whatever it’s worth, some polls have shown Joe Biden
leading President Trump in Texas.)[/quote]
---
www.fastcompany.com/90521390/for-the-first-time-the-majority-of-
people-under-16-in-america-are-nonwhite-and-hispanic
[quote]The numbers are in.
The Census Bureau has released its latest population estimates,
which include data from 2019. And on the whole, it shows an
aging white America and an increasingly diverse United States.
Here are some general insights:
Our nation is getting bigger: The total population hovered
around 329 million in 2019, up from around 308 million in 2010.
Baby boomers are no longer babies: The 65-and-older population
swelled by nearly 35% between 2010 and 2019, driven by the aging
of baby boomers born between 1946 and 1964. In part due to this,
the median age of Americans rose from 37.2 years to 38.4 years.
(The median age for non-Hispanic whites, in 2019, was 43.7
years, compared to 29.8 for Hispanics, 35 for Asians, and 32.3
for Black Americans.)
The U.S. is becoming more racially diverse: The U.S. population
was about 60% non-Hispanic white in 2019, a record low for the
country, and experts predict non-Hispanic whites will be a
minority in 25 years. Meanwhile, Hispanic and Asian populations
grew by 20% and 30%, respectively, from 2010 to 2019, and the
Black population grew by 12%. While the white population grew by
4.3% compared to 2010, the number of non-Hispanic whites fell by
more than half a million people from 2016 to 2019.
The face of America is changing fast: In 2019, for the first
time ever, nonwhites and Hispanics were the majority for people
under the age of 16, signaling a demographic shift that experts
expect will continue over the coming decades.[/quote]
25 years is too long. With a better immigration policy we can do
it in a small fraction of this time.
---
We forgot about this!
us.yahoo.com/news/house-vote-making-dc-51st-104947242.html
[quote]Advocates of statehood say it's a long-overdue change for
a city that lacks any voting representation in Congress.
NAACP President Derrick Johnson told USA TODAY in a phone
interview it was an issue of "fairness" for the city's
population.
"This has been a question that's been pushed for over 50 years,"
he said, even when the district was a majority-Black city. "This
goes beyond just race. This goes to the fundamental issue of
fair representation for all citizens of the United States."
Census Bureau data shows that 46.4% of the district's population
is African American, 11.3% is Hispanic or Latino and 4.4% is
Asian, and the district's population is larger than Wyoming and
Vermont.
In a Friday press conference, Pelosi touted Friday’s vote as a
move “long overdue” that would offer “justice” to the people
living in D.C., allowing them equality to Americans across the
country.
“The fact is, people in the District of Columbia pay taxes,
fight our wars, risk their lives for our democracy. And yet, in
this state, in this place, they have no vote in the House or the
Senate, about whether we go to war and how those taxes are
exacted,” Pelosi said.
In a speech on the House floor, House Majority Leader Steny
Hoyer, D-Md., said the citizens in the nation's capital, which
he noted was "historically one of our largest African American
cities" had been "disenfranchised and shortchanged for too
long."
President Barack Obama said in 2014 that he supported D.C.
statehood, putting the district's "Taxation Without
Representation" license plates on the presidential limousine.
There is support for statehood outside the district, too.
National Democratic leaders voiced their support for D.C.
statehood in a Twitter thread Thursday, with former Vice
President Joe Biden, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg,
Sen. Kamala Harris, and others tweeting "DC should be a state.
Pass it on."
...
"D.C. will never be a state," Trump told the New York Post. "You
mean District of Columbia, a state? Why? So we can have two more
Democratic — Democrat senators and five more congressmen? No
thank you. That’ll never happen."
The Senate currently is split 53-47, the majority held by
Republicans, and adding two D.C. senators would cut into the GOP
advantage in the chamber.[/quote]
HTML https://dcstatehoodyeswecan.org/j/images/stories/DCStatehoodSign-small-whiteback.gif
#Post#: 133--------------------------------------------------
Re: Demographic Blueshift
By: 90sRetroFan Date: July 6, 2020, 1:05 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Latest census analysis:
HTML https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-population-growth-has-been-driven-exclusively-by-minorities/ar-BB16kTl6
HTML https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8491551/US-population-growth-driven-minorities-white-population-declining.html
[quote]Frey adds: 'The Census Bureau was not projecting white
population losses to occur until after 2024. This makes any
national population growth even more reliant on other race and
ethnic groups.'[/quote]
It is good to be ahead of schedule.
HTML https://wentworthreportdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2019/07/us-replacement-black-lives-matter.jpg
#Post#: 437--------------------------------------------------
Re: Demographic Blueshift
By: 90sRetroFan Date: July 22, 2020, 12:59 am
---------------------------------------------------------
A reminder of why Demographic Blueshift is so important:
HTML https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8538793/Trump-beating-Biden-white-male-voters-wont-say-accept-2020-results.html
[quote]While Donald Trump continues to slip in the polls against
Joe Biden, the president still remains ahead among two
demographics – male and white voters, but the presumed
Democratic nominee is still ahead in almost every other
demographic.
...
when it comes to male voters, Trump is up by 5 percentage
points, but among women voters, Biden leads the president by 9
points.
White voters are also much more likely to cast their ballot for
Trump over Biden in the November elections – those with a
college degree by a 3 per ent margin and without a degree by 9
percentage points.
Biden is ahead of Trump among all other races.
A massive 64 per cent of black voters say they would vote for
Biden over Trump while the Democrat is ahead among Hispanic
voters by 30 per cent.[/quote]
#Post#: 527--------------------------------------------------
Re: Demographic Blueshift
By: 90sRetroFan Date: July 26, 2020, 3:17 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Hartmann focuses on gender:
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ooLudMy2OJg
Which is not to say, however, that gender is the most decisive
factor (refer to the top left and middle right maps, as well as
the asterisked text):
HTML https://i.imgur.com/cGcgCFc.jpg
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