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#Post#: 14276--------------------------------------------------
GNP down 2.9%
DIR By: trollslayer
Date: June 25, 2014, 10:16 pm
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The GNP is down for the first quarter of 2014. Down 2.9%. Yet
Obama says the economy is growing.
--- Quote ---
> Rather than talking more openly and honestly about the costs
of these basic goods and services, we get a steady diet of
drivel from most major news organizations. Even my favorite
outlet, that being Bloomberg, was talking about men’s fashion
rather than the economy at 8:38am this morning. Little wonder so
many folks continue to look elsewhere for meaningful analysis of
the news of the day. I recommend that folks follow the work and
analysis of Keith McCullough and team at Hedgeye who have had as
good a read on the economy as any I have seen in a long time.
>
> With the 1st quarter retracement in the economy, we would now
have to grow at better than a 3.5% rate over the balance of the
year to get close to an annual GDP for 2014 of 2%.
>
> I’m an optimist, but I’m also a seeker of the truth wherever
it may reside and whatever it might tell us. Better than 3.5%
growth for the next three quarters?
>
> I’m taking the under.
--- End Quote ---
HTML http://www.senseoncents.com/2014/06/1st-qtr-gdp-2-9-turns-corner-goes-off-cliff/#sthash.xE4LfiPt.dpuf
Ain't gonna happen folks.
#Post#: 14279--------------------------------------------------
Re: GNP down 2.9%
DIR By: rapids_60
Date: June 25, 2014, 11:07 pm
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Cripes. We're probably going to be a nation of whiners again.
Pay no attention to the second crash behind the curtain.
#Post#: 14280--------------------------------------------------
Re: GNP down 2.9%
DIR By: rapids_60
Date: June 25, 2014, 11:41 pm
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When you look at where the losses are, it gets interesting.
More info here:
HTML http://www.cnbc.com/id/101787838#.
Healthcare spending is down. Expected to be +1%, instead was
-0.16
Is reduced healthcare spending a good thing or bad?
US Exports were down. -1.53% Not sure how much control we
have over that here.
Some economists attribute as much as 1.5% of that drop to the
extreme weather last winter.
The largest driver was a drop in consumer spending. Expected to
be +3.1%, was instead +0.71% Still an increase, but a tiny
one.
The personal savings rate has been hovering around it's current
4% for several years, so consumers haven't changed there.
Perhaps they just don't have any more money to spend. 40 years
of flat wage growth has to catch up sooner or later.
#Post#: 14285--------------------------------------------------
Re: GNP down 2.9%
DIR By: trollslayer
Date: June 26, 2014, 7:02 am
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--- Quote ---
> Healthcare spending is down. Expected to be +1%, instead was
-0.16
> Is reduced healthcare spending a good thing or bad?
--- End Quote ---
A bad thing. So Obamacare is going to shrink the economy? Some
have said because many now have huge deductibles that many can't
afford healthcare.
--- Quote ---
> Cripes. We're probably going to be a nation of whiners again.
Pay no attention to the second crash behind the curtain.
--- End Quote ---
I'm not seeing the whining. Just a valid news story on the
economy.
#Post#: 14303--------------------------------------------------
Re: GNP down 2.9%
DIR By: rapids_60
Date: June 26, 2014, 9:51 pm
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"Nation of Whiners" was a Phil Gramm comment. He thought the
recession was all in people's heads. Called it a "mental
recession" and us a "nation of whiners". Hours later Lehman
collapsed.
It seems to fit.
The consensus among the financial talking heads seems to be last
quarter's bad performance was an oddity, next quarter will be
much better.
We'll see I guess.
#Post#: 14305--------------------------------------------------
Re: GNP down 2.9%
DIR By: trollslayer
Date: June 27, 2014, 8:24 am
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--- Quote from: rapids_60 link ---
>
> "Nation of Whiners" was a Phil Gramm comment. He thought the
recession was all in people's heads. Called it a "mental
recession" and us a "nation of whiners". Hours later Lehman
collapsed.
> It seems to fit.
>
> The consensus among the financial talking heads seems to be
last quarter's bad performance was an oddity, next quarter will
be much better.
> We'll see I guess.
>
--- End Quote ---
Gotcha now.
Whether or not the last quarter was an oddity still remains to
be seen I guess. No matter how you look at it, that's one deep
hole to dig out of to achieve a decent number for '14.
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