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Champions League semifinal preview: PSG, Neymar too good for
Leipzig? Can Lyon stop mighty Bayern?
DIR By: The Referee
Date: August 17, 2020, 8:47 pm
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ESPN
Aug 11, 2020
After a dizzying, dramatic slate of quarterfinals in Lisbon,
Portugal, that saw last-second drama (PSG vs. Atalanta),
historic scores (Bayern Munich 8, Barcelona 2) and a pair of
serious updates (RB Leipzig over Atletico Madrid, Lyon knocking
Man City out), we're down to the final four in the UEFA
Champions League. Two games pitting Ligue 1 sides against
Bundesliga opposition are up next, as Lyon face Bayern and RB
Leipzig look to end PSG's date with destiny.
Which teams are likely to move on to the final? Which players
could be decisive in either contest?
Here's your preview for the semifinals.
RB LEIPZIG vs. PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN (Tues., 3 p.m. ET)
RB Leipzig
Master vs. Apprentice
When Julian Nagelsmann was forced into premature retirement as a
young central defender at Augsburg in 2008, it was his
then-coach, Thomas Tuchel, who nudged him down the coaching
path. Under Tuchel, Nagelsmann (still on the Augsburg payroll)
started scouting and then took his first steps into coaching as
an assistant with 1860 Munich U-17s. From there he joined
Hoffenheim's youth system, got the top job and is now in charge
of Champions League semifinalists Leipzig. His trajectory has
been rapid and impressive in equal measure.
A Nagelsmann side finds a way of punching above its weight,
where the system draws together individual talent to create a
collective stronger than the sum of its parts. Having dispatched
Tottenham and then Atletico Madrid in the knockout stages,
Nagelsmann's Leipzig play without fear, and even without Timo
Werner -- he joined Chelsea on July 1 -- they are a formidable
outfit. Nagelsmann, 33, will relish the chance to knock his
previous boss out of the Champions League. "Games against him
are always interesting, because he has a good idea of football,"
Nagelsmann said of Tuchel last week.
"Of course I was his player, but that was a long time ago.
Coaching's my game now, just like it's his."
Key players
Naglesmann's approach is all about transitions and the speed of
turning defence into attack. Dayot Upamecano, their towering
centre-back, was magnificent against Atletico Madrid and
neutralized the threat of Diego Costa with ease. Upamecano will
have his hands full trying to stop Neymar and Mauro Icardi.
- Hamilton: Adams the hero as Leipzig beat Atletico
With Werner at Chelsea, the pressure is on Leipzig's forwards to
deliver. Yussuf Poulsen will be their go-to striker, but Marcel
Sabitzer is integral. The Austrian attacking midfielder has 16
goals and 11 assists to his name, and Leipzig will need him to
be at his most creative vs. PSG.
Why they will win
Leipzig have a fearless mentality. In short, the bigger the
opponent, the greater the opportunity. They are defensively
solid, and through the brilliance of Naglesmann's tactical
approach, they can switch from a 3-4-3, to a 3-4-1-2 or a
4-2-3-1 in the blink of an eye. The players have an inherent
understanding of their roles and are equally confident in moving
out of position to plug gaps. They are so hard to break down,
with Kevin Kampl integral to their system as he hovers in front
of the back three snaffling out any potential attacking threats.
Why they will not win
They have one thing going against them, and it's a big one: the
absence of Werner. He scored 34 goals for them this season and
was the heartbeat of their rapid attack. While they've already
moved to sort that for next season with the signing of Hwang
Hee-Chan from Salzburg, on Tuesday night they will need players
to once again step out of the Werner shadows and embrace the
spotlight. -- Tom Hamilton
Paris Saint-Germain
This is Neymar's time to shine
When you think of the PSG version of Neymar in the Champions
League, you think of inconsistency and an inability to deliver,
having missed their last two exits from the competition because
of injury. In the round of 16 against Dortmund, Neymar was equal
parts brash and brilliant. Against Atalanta, he was wasteful in
front of goal but never stopped trying to crack the Serie A
side's defenses. Apart from Lionel Messi, no one else can
dribble past people like him and can own a game like he did
against the Italians. He was the only creative touch against
them. He was PSG's attacking system alone.
- Laurens: PSG end their Champions League curse
- Marcotti: Atalanta's story is far from over
The French champions relied on him against Dortmund in the past
16 and he delivered with two goals. They relied on him against
Atalanta and he carried them, assisting the first goal and with
a second assist on the second. They will rely on him again on
Tuesday against RB Leipzig. Will he take them to the final?
That's why they signed him. That's why he left Barcelona. He has
two more games to get to the top of Europe, like in 2015 with
Barca, but this time, he would be the main man doing it like he
wanted it.
Key players
Neymar will of course be the leader, but Kylian Mbappé will be
his faithful lieutenant, the duo resembling a footballing
version of Batman and Robin. The French prodigy is back in the
semifinal of the Champions League three years after reaching it
with Monaco in 2017. At the time, he was 18 and had taken Europe
both by storm and by surprise. This is a different, better KMB,
and he is where we expect him to be. Like against Atalanta, his
pace and his partnership with Neymar will cause havoc in the
Leipzig defence.
Then there is Marquinhos, the best hybrid centre-back/holding
midfielder in the world. No other player can do both jobs as
well as him. He will be key for PSG once more, as he will have
to protect his back four from the waves of Leipzig attacks as
well as providing the right balance in transition for his team.
At 26, he is also a real leader even if he doesn't wear the
armband; he told his teammates not to panic against Atalanta
when they were 1-0 down and to not give up when the clock was
ticking down.
Why PSG will win
The Parisians are giants both in terms of their star power and
their financial might. They're the haves against Leipzig's
have-nots, and they're on a mission. Before the coronavirus
pandemic lockdown and before they faced Dortmund in the last 16
second leg, with a 2-1 deficit to overturn, they made a pact as
a group to go all the way. They believed this was their season,
and they're proving it so far.
Better yet, their individuals are in top form, unlike in
previous seasons. Neymar, Mbappé, Marquinhos and Thiago Silva
form a winning spine capable of carrying this team to the final.
They have too much brilliance for Leipzig to combat, especially
given Neymar's form. That brilliance extends to the coaching
battle: Tuchel knows Nagelsmann better than anyone else and he
will be ready to win the tactical battle against him, especially
to beat Leipzig's press.
Why PSG will not win
The expectations are massive. Having waited 25 years for this
opportunity, not reaching the final four of the Champions
League/European Cup since 1995, the pressure could be crippling.
PSG don't usually cope well with this kind of stress, having
crashed out of this competition in the quarterfinals or earlier
in each of the past seven attempts. Despite boasting the likes
of Mbappe, Neymar, Edinson Cavani and even Zlatan Ibrahimovic,
the Champions League has been truly beyond their grasp.
The French champions are not used to facing a team like Leipzig
that plays with so much energy, intensity and movement. It will
be tough for them to keep up with all the runs from the
wing-backs, the forwards and the midfielders.
Based on the latest training sessions, it looks like Tuchel will
revert to his favourite 4-4-2 formation for this game, which
would be a mistake, as it would play into Leipzig's hands,
especially in midfield where PSG risk to be totally outplayed.
The other risk is that if things start going wrong and if
Leipzig take the lead, Neymar or Mbappe will try to do their
thing on their own and it will be counterproductive for the
team. -- Julien Laurens
Predictions
If Leipzig can keep PSG's attacking riches at bay, they will
book their place in the Champions League final with a 2-1
victory. -- Tom Hamilton
PSG is stronger individually but Leipzig is better collectively.
However, in a game like this, I think individual talent will
prevail. PSG will win 2-1. -- Julien Laurens
OLYMPIQUE LYON vs. BAYERN MUNICH (Wed., 3 p.m. ET)
Lyon
The secret to Lyon's success: This was never on the cards.
Never, at any point this season, did something about Lyon's game
make you think they would be on the verge of something so
special in the Champions League. Yet, here they are. They
managed to defy adversity and negativity all season, even
weathering the premature end to the Ligue 1 season caused by the
coronavirus outbreak across the globe.
Coach Rudi Garcia and his players created a fantastic team
spirit, a sense of togetherness and a mental strength that has
taken them 90 minutes from the Champions League final. They also
found the perfect tactical system for them -- a 3-5-2 that suits
most of their top players. In this formation, they're hard to
break down and hard to beat. They are solid in midfield,
crowding out opponents, they're disciplined in the tackle and
they can play on the counterattack.
The other secret is the emergence of a remarkable midfield
three. In Houssem Aouar, Lyon already had a gem on their hands.
This could be his last game for the club if a bigger team comes
for him this summer, but Aouar has been a wonderful technical
leader. He is the total package: can create scoring chances,
retain possession under pressure and advance with the ball
through tackles even in his own half.
- Olley: Guardiola outthinks himself vs. Lyon
Next to him, Lyon have unearthed a real star in the making in
Bruno Guimaraes. The Brazilian was already praised in his
country but quite unknown in Europe. Not anymore, as the holding
midfielder was superb against Juventus and Manchester City. The
third and last musketeer in the Lyon midfield is the youngest
and the new kid on the block, Maxence Caqueret, 20, who plays
with the maturity of a 30-year-old. Everything is clean with
him, and he puts so much pressure on the opposition too.
Key players
In addition to the aforementioned Houssem Aouar, Bayern must
heed the threat created by Memphis Depay, who arguably shouldn't
even be playing. When he injured a knee before Christmas, he and
club officials thought that his season was over. On Wednesday,
he will lead his team as the captain into one of the biggest
games in Lyon's history. He wants to make his second chance
count.
Equally, this is a great opportunity for Depay to show how far
he's come since his disappointing spell at Manchester United. He
was young then, and probably not ready after leaving PSV. At
Lyon, he's found himself again. Whether he plays at a false nine
or a second striker, his influence on the team's game is huge.
He is the boss of this team -- its guide and its soul. For Lyon
to beat Bayern, they will need a great night from him and a
great partnership with Karl Toko Ekambi, who complements him
well up front with his runs.
Why Lyon will win
No one expected them to get this far, and they will keep doing
what has worked so far against Juventus and City: defend deep
with a back five and play on the counter. It should be effective
if Bayern stick with their high line, giving Lyon opportunities
and room to run in behind. There will be lots of space there for
Depay, Toko Ekambi and the wing-backs to exploit. In midfield,
the three young Lyonnais should cope with the pressure from
Bayern's midfield.
Why Lyon won't win
Did you see what Bayern did to Barcelona? Make no mistake, Lyon
are facing the favorites to win it all. There will be no shame
in losing against a better side, one that has the experience in
midfield to block Lyon's trio. Stopping Alfonso Davies and
Robert Lewandowski could also be very difficult and could cost
them the game with an early goal. -- Julien Laurens
Bayern Munich
Is this Bayern's trophy to lose?
Where do you go after you've already scored eight against Lionel
Messi & Co.? That's the challenge facing Bayern Munich: how to
keep it going. Having secured a spot in Champions League
immortality with that once-in-a-lifetime result, they know it'll
count for nothing unless they back it up with two more wins and
the trophy.
Oliver Kahn, the great Bayern Munich goalkeeper, is now on their
board and said recently that the club needs to win the Champions
League "more often." (Their last title: 2012-13, when they beat
Jurgen Klopp's Borussia Dortmund 2-1.)
- Marcotti: Bayern's brilliance, not Barca's woe, the story
- Hunter: Barca's humiliation is their own fault
"I look at the future and it is not enough to win the Champions
League title one time every 10 years," he continued. Well,
there's the challenge to Hansi Flick's side and a sign of their
ambition. The Bundesliga title -- as others like Maurizio Sarri
at Juventus found after clinching Serie A -- is no longer enough
to satisfy the hunger of ambitious boardrooms. But this is now
Bayern Munich's Champions League to lose.
They have been magnificent all season, dominated the Bundesliga
and far away lead the Champions League standings for expected
goals, or xG (31.38), have averaged 4.3 goals per game and are
second behind Manchester City for expected assists, or xA
(19.67). They have incredible depth -- just look at their bench
against Barcelona, as they were able to bring on Kingsley Coman
and Philippe Coutinho to strengthen their grip on the match --
and the world's best striker in Robert Lewandowski. Then they
have unsung heroes such as Joshua Kimmich, the box-office talent
of Davies and the ever-calm Manuel Neuer between the posts.
Key players
You can pick anyone from Bayern's remarkable squad, but it's
hard to look past their brilliant raumdeuter (or, literally,
"space interpreter") Thomas Muller. The attacking midfielder was
out of the picture under previous manager Nico Kovac, but
Flick's introduction saw Muller return to centre stage and he
has been outstanding for Bayern this season. He is their glue:
always the link man in attack (he has registered 21 assists this
term) and also chips in with his fair share of goals. He has a
wonderfully unique style and the deftest touch on the ball; with
freedom in attack, he's so difficult to mark.
Alongside Müller, Bayern will also need David Alaba to be on
form in the heart of their defence. The 28-year-old has formed
an impressive partnership with Jerome Boateng, but he will need
to be on song to halt the likes of Depay and Moussa Dembele. He
was vulnerable against Barcelona, and though it didn't cost
Bayern in the end, he'll need to rebound quickly for the
challenge of Lyon.
Why Bayern will win
When you have Lewandowski in the team, you fancy your chances,
but Bayern are far bigger than just one man. Their motto "Mia
san Mia" roughly translates to "we are who we are" and is the
lifeblood of their identity -- everything flows through this,
and they put so much emphasis on team harmony and a collective
will. Flick manages the club through encouragement, rather than
an authoritarian approach, and the players have responded.
Boateng, their impressive veteran centre-back, has previously
spoken of how Flick has brought the fun back to Bayern and the
players are clearly thriving. They dominated the Bundesliga,
winning their eighth straight title by 13 points, and have
Champions League winners in the squad in Müller, Neuer, Alaba
and Boateng. In short, they know how to win.
Why Bayern won't win
Lyon won't be overawed by Bayern, after the French side polished
off Man City, and will target the German champions'
centre-backs, looking to push and pull Boateng and Alaba out of
position. Both defenders are vulnerable to pace given Bayern's
propensity to play a high line; if the likes of Davies and
Kimmich are isolated upfield, there could be room for Depay &
Co. to exploit. -- Tom Hamilton
Predictions
I think that Bayern will be too good for Lyon. I can see the
Germans winning 3-1. -- Julien Laurens
Bayern Munich will come through with a 4-2 victory, Lewandowski
will score and Müller will have an outstanding game. -- Tom
Hamilton.
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