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#Post#: 13--------------------------------------------------
MLB SEASON
DIR By: The Referee
Date: July 21, 2020, 3:38 pm
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MLB SEASON IS BACK!
2020 MLB season expert predictions: Division picks, playoff
field, World Series winner
ESPN.com
After a delay of nearly four months, the 2020 MLB season will
begin on Thursday night when the Washington Nationals host the
New York Yankees (7 ET, ESPN). It's time to pin down our
expectations for what we expect to happen in the abbreviated
60-game season.
Will the Nationals repeat? Is this the year the Los Angeles
Dodgers end their long championship drought? Will Gerrit Cole
pitch the Yankees to their first title since 2009?
From among our columnists, writers, researchers and editors, we
polled 32 of ESPN's leading baseball experts to see what they
expect, asking them about who's going to win their respective
divisions as well as who's going to win their leagues and
ultimately the World Series.
To see who our experts think will walk away with the MVP and
other hardware at the end of the 2020 season, check out our
award predictions.
Jump to predictions for: National League | AL and NL champions |
World Series champion
American League
AL East
Our pick: Yankees (21 votes)
Who else got votes? Rays (11)
Why did you pick the Rays?
The Rays might be the league's most creative team, which makes
them the team most likely to find hidden opportunities in these
anomalous circumstances. I'd pick the Yankees' wealth and talent
to win out in 162 games, but in 60 games, the gap is negligible,
and the division could go to the team that first figures out how
to make this once-in-a-lifetime schedule work for it. -- Sam
Miller
AL Central
Our pick: Twins (24)
Who else got votes? Indians (5), White Sox (3)
Why did you pick the White Sox?
Among the trio of AL divisions, the Central is the most
wide-open, and between Cleveland, Chicago and Minnesota, the
White Sox possess the highest ceiling during this boom-or-bust
season. Tim Anderson emerged as a legitimate offensive force at
shortstop last season, winning the batting title despite playing
in fewer than 130 games, while Lucas Giolito lived up to his
former consensus top pitching prospect hype for the first time
to the tune of a 3.41 ERA in 29 starts and an All-Star
appearance. Toss in the free-agent additions of Dallas Keuchel
and Yasmani Grandal, the continued development of Eloy Jimenez
and the rookie season of Luis Robert, and this White Sox squad
boasts the highest talent ceiling in the division. 2020 could be
the year, amid the craziest of circumstances, the accumulation
of top-tier young talent comes together on the South Side. --
Joon Lee
AL West
Our pick: Astros (17)
Who else got votes: A's (11), Angels (4)
Why did you pick the Angels?
While the Astros remain the team to beat, the Angels and A's
have closed that gap significantly. I picked the Angels to win
the AL West not only because of Houston's loss of Gerrit Cole to
the Yankees but also because the Angels added Anthony Rendon and
have a fully healthy Shohei Ohtani back in action. Their
pitching is suspect, but anything can happen in a 60-game
season, especially when you have Mike Trout. -- Marly Rivera
Why did you pick the A's?
I think the balance of Oakland's roster helps in the unbalanced
schedule of the short season, especially going up against some
shallow rosters in the two Western divisions -- outside of the
Dodgers, of course. The Astros are definitely going to miss
Gerrit Cole, and that makes the difference in a 60-game sprint.
-- Christina Kahrl
AL wild cards
Votes: Rays (21), Yankees (10), Astros (10), Indians (5), White
Sox (6), Twins (4), A's (4), Angels (3), Blue Jays (1)
Why do you think the A's will get one of the AL wild-card spots?
It's hard to make a numbers-based case that Oakland should be
favored over the Astros in the AL West, but the A's have one of
the best five or six rosters in baseball. What's more, their
strengths -- team defense and relief pitching -- should help
them find their way as every team seeks to quickly find a rhythm
in this odd season. -- Bradford Doolittle
National League
NL East:
Our pick: Braves (16)
Who else got votes? Nationals (10), Mets (4), Phillies (2)
Why did you pick the Nationals?
AL wild cards
Votes: Rays (21), Yankees (10), Astros (10), Indians (5), White
Sox (6), Twins (4), A's (4), Angels (3), Blue Jays (1)
Why do you think the A's will get one of the AL wild-card spots?
It's hard to make a numbers-based case that Oakland should be
favored over the Astros in the AL West, but the A's have one of
the best five or six rosters in baseball. What's more, their
strengths -- team defense and relief pitching -- should help
them find their way as every team seeks to quickly find a rhythm
in this odd season. -- Bradford Doolittle
National League
NL East:
Our pick: Braves (16)
Who else got votes? Nationals (10), Mets (4), Phillies (2)
Why did you pick the Nationals?
FanGraphs has the Nats' odds with the Braves to win the division
as a coin flip, and that's about where I landed as well. I'm
leaning toward the rotational power the Nats have with their Max
Scherzer/Stephen Strasburg/Patrick Corbin trio, but the Braves
do have a little more youth and upside. -- Kiley McDaniel
NL Central
Our pick: Reds (14)
Who else got votes? Brewers (7), Cubs (6), Cardinals (5)
Why did you pick the Reds?
The NL Central appears to be the most wide-open division. When
in doubt, default to starting pitching, and the Reds should be
the class of the division with Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor
Bauer, Wade Miley and Anthony DeSclafani. Add in new power
sources Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos, and the Reds'
lineup should be improved as well. -- Dave Schoenfield
NL West
Our pick: Dodgers (32)
Everyone picked the Dodgers in the NL West, but if one team were
to catch them, which would it be?
The Padres are a chic pick, but I'll go with the Diamondbacks,
who have an excellent defensive team anchored by shortstop Nick
Ahmed, a star in Ketel Marte and a potentially top rotation with
Madison Bumgarner, Robbie Ray, Zac Gallen, Luke Weaver and
Merrill Kelly. -- David Schoenfield
NL wild cards
Votes: Nationals (12), Mets (8), Diamondbacks (8), Braves (7),
Padres (7), Cubs (5), Brewers (5), Cardinals (5), Phillies (4),
Reds (3)
Why do you think the Padres will earn a wild-card spot?
In a conventional sense, the Padres are probably at least a year
or two away. But shorten the season to 60 games and all of a
sudden a lineup featuring Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr.
could be a major difference-maker, and young starters like Chris
Paddack, MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino can pitch without much
restriction, and a dominant reliever like Kirby Yates can be
used more freely. -- Alden Gonzalez
AL and NL champions
American League
Our pick: Yankees (14)
Who else got votes: Rays (7), Twins (3), Indians (3), A's (3),
Astros (2)
Why did you pick the Astros as AL champs?
If we were making these picks in March, I'm not sure I would
have gone with the Astros. Dealing with packed stadiums getting
on you every road trip for six months in the immediate aftermath
of the winter's sign-stealing news is a lot to shoulder. And I'm
also not sure Houston could cover all of the innings it lost
when Gerrit Cole left town for a full season. But the shorter
season in front of empty stands really plays in the Astros'
favor. They still have a very formidable lineup with lots of
extra motivation to prove they can hit without any trash cans
banging in the background, and a Justin Verlander-Zack
Greinke-Lance McCullers Jr. rotation trio is enough to compete
with anyone in October. -- Dan Mullen
National League
Our pick: Dodgers (24)
Who else got votes? Braves (2), Nationals (2), Brewers (2),
Diamondbacks (1): Reds (1)
Why did you pick the Braves as NL champs?
If you had any doubts about the incredible talent of Ronald
Acuna Jr. before last season, his 2019 campaign promptly
silenced any doubters. Between Acuna and Ozzie Albies, the
Braves possess one of the best talent cores in the league. Toss
in the emergence of Mike Soroka last year and the signing of
Marcell Ozuna, and Atlanta brings a team with offensive depth --
and that's without including star first baseman Freddie Freeman,
one of the most high-profile players to test positive for the
coronavirus. Atlanta lost Josh Donaldson to free agency but
brings back much of the core that led to 97 wins last season.
It'll need a healthy Freeman to make a run at the World Series
title, but the talent Atlanta brings to the table is among the
best the National League has to offer. -- Joon Lee
Why did you pick the Reds?
The Reds aren't a perfect team but have no major weaknesses. A
stacked lineup will only be aided by the DH as this team is no
longer Joey Votto and a bunch of no-names. The additions of Mike
Moustakas and Nick Castellanos alone make them the offense to
beat in the NL Central. And they have just enough pitching to
come out on top. -- Jesse Rogers
World Series champion
Our pick: Dodgers (18)
Who else got votes? Yankees (6), Rays (3), Brewers (2), Braves
(1), Nationals (1), Indians (1)
Why did you pick the Dodgers?
My theory on the 2020 season: Health is the single most
important variable in a 60-game season. The antidote to the
possibility of poor health is depth. There is no deeper team
than the Dodgers. And it's really talented, high-ceiling,
star-caliber depth too, with prospect capital to supplement via
August trades or September roster additions. -- Jeff Passan
Small samples are usually terrible for the favorites, but thanks
to a weak division and an outrageous roster -- the NL's best
stars at the top, the NL's most depth at the bottom -- the
Dodgers are the one team that should be fluke-proof in the
regular season. They're the best team in baseball, and the next
four, in my opinion, are all in the AL, a gauntlet the Dodgers
get to avoid until the World Series. -- Sam Miller
While I'm concerned that further decline from Kenley Jansen
could really undermine things, I also don't want to overthink
it. The Dodgers won 106 games last season and outscored
opponents by 273 runs. Then they traded for Mookie Betts. I know
the arithmetic never works out that straightforward, but the
bottom line is that arguably baseball's best team added one of
baseball's best four or five players. -- Bradford Doolittle
Of the three comparable top contenders, I can't pick the Astros
given all the uncertainty and acrimony around their offseason,
while the Yankees have to get out of the harder league
(featuring six of the top seven teams in FanGraphs' projected
team WAR). Even apart from those two factors, the Dodgers are
probably my slight preference for the best pick of these three
anyway. -- Kiley McDaniel
Why did you pick the Yankees?
The Tampa Bay Rays are a deep and dangerous team, and I intended
to pick them to win the 2020 World Series. But in watching the
Yankees in the summer camp, in seeing the staggering
accumulation of talent -- amplified by the return from injury
for Miguel Andujar, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge -- picking
against them would be like picking against the Harlem
Globetrotters. Or picking against the Alcindor/Walton UCLA
Bruins, or the '98-'00 Yankees. Luck is a greater factor in a
60-game season, but the Yankees' roster advantages will
significantly mitigate the chances for derailment by misfortune.
They are stacked. -- Buster Olney
Even in a shortened season, Gerrit Cole is able to dominate,
leading the Yankees to a championship in his first season in
pinstripes. New York's depth up and down the lineup and in the
bullpen also prove to be major factors, as the Bronx Bombers end
up on top for the first time since 2009. -- Harrison Marder
Why did you pick the Rays?
I project the Rays to have the best pitching staff in the
majors, led by Charlie Morton, 2018 Cy Young winner Blake Snell
and potential 2020 Cy Young winner Tyler Glasnow. The bullpen is
deep and the lineup better than people realize with 2019
All-Stars Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe and the ability to
platoon at several positions. -- David Schoenfield
Insert your own joke beaten into the ground about the Rays being
used to playing in front of no crowd at Tropicana Field. Now,
sure sure, Tampa Bay's roster has plenty of experience playing
in front of sparse crowds, but it also means some of its
roster's bright spots go undercovered.
Meadows, acquired in the Chris Archer deal with Pittsburgh,
emerged as one of the best bats in the division, and there's a
potential bounce-back on the horizon from Snell, who struggled
in 2019 to repeat the success of his 2018 Cy Young campaign.
Throw in Morton and a perennially strong bullpen pieced together
by the team's analytically driven decision-makers and Tampa Bay
has everything needed to make a strong run in a
small-sample-size season. Tampa Bay dealt away one of its top
offensive threats in Tommy Pham and hope Japanese slugger
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, who hit 29 homers for the Yokohama BayStars
in the NPB in 2019, can replace some of that production.
Baseball's postseason is always chaotic -- the midseason punch
line-to-wild card-to-champions Nationals being proof of that
last year -- and the Rays seem positioned to navigate all of it.
-- Joon Lee
Why did you pick the Braves?
Atlanta approached 100 wins last year and arguably improved this
offseason, adding solid vets (Marcell Ozuna, Travis d'Arnaud,
Cole Hamels) to one of the best young talent cores in baseball.
The Braves also end the year with 10 of 20 games against Miami
and Baltimore. With sneaky depth to take advantage of the new
DH, they're a top-five talent right now and are the team best
equipped to take on the Dodgers in October. -- Kevin Pulsifer
Why did you pick the Indians?
People seem to overlook the Indians winning 93 games a year ago,
despite myriad issues with the lineup (Jose Ramirez, the
outfield) and rotation (Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco). The
upgraded lineup is deeper and more powerful, led by a motivated
MVP candidate in Francisco Lindor; the rotation appears healthy;
and with a rather attractive schedule, Cleveland should cruise
to the postseason, where a veteran manager with several World
Series rings adds another. -- Eric Karabell
Why did you pick the Brewers?
It's an unusual year, so why not an unusual pick? Someone's
going to get hot come October, so why not a team that has
advanced to the postseason in back-to-back seasons, has a strong
lineup and is willing to maximize matchups at any point in the
game on the pitching side? Christian Yelich is an MVP favorite,
the DH role seems perfect for Ryan Braun and the team has one of
the best closers in the game in Josh Hader. -- Tristan Cockcroft
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