DIR Return Create A Forum - Home
---------------------------------------------------------
Thailandchat
HTML https://thailandchat.createaforum.com
---------------------------------------------------------
*****************************************************
DIR Return to: Thailand and Asia News & Travel
*****************************************************
#Post#: 994--------------------------------------------------
Will 2022 see a return to mass travel?
DIR By: Smeg
Date: December 21, 2021, 3:22 am
---------------------------------------------------------
I'm thinking that business model is gone forever and Thailand
will never see 40 million tourists per year again.
#Post#: 1042--------------------------------------------------
Re: Will 2022 see a return to mass travel?
DIR By: Lamphun
Date: December 24, 2021, 3:16 am
---------------------------------------------------------
You’re being too pessimistic. There’s now a high capacity
railway all the way from Beijing to Nong Khai. As soon as the
Chinese allow travel we’ll have a 100 million of them here for
the holidays.
#Post#: 1045--------------------------------------------------
Re: Will 2022 see a return to mass travel?
DIR By: Smeg
Date: December 24, 2021, 3:34 am
---------------------------------------------------------
I'm being optimistic in hoping it's gone forever!
I've watched a few travel vlogs recently. One was filmed by a
Brit in Vietnam in January 2020. He shows himself on some
package tour day trip thing in some remote part of Vietnam which
is busy as hell as there's thousands of Chinese around him. A
few days later he's very ill with a fever. Pretty sure that was
covid before anyone knew what it was.
#Post#: 1096--------------------------------------------------
Re: Will 2022 see a return to mass travel?
DIR By: socal
Date: December 26, 2021, 9:52 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
I doubt it. Usually just when tourism gets hot , a financial
crisis of some kind goes off in the world. And tourism quiets
down again. I remember going to Las Vegas in 2006 and Thailand
in 2007. I got to Kohsan road and there was literally no rooms.
Went further and further out into BKK to find a room. Took a day
to find one. Clearly things were too hot. And the 2008 financial
crisis was just around the corner. Vegas in 06 was just insane
too.
This time though , just when it looked like there could be a
financial crisis , covid hit. And then as covid hit , the
world's central banks went on the biggest monetary expansion
binge ever. Activity on the ground stopped , but prices did not
adjust downward for assets at all.
At some point soon, this business/credit cycle will exhaust
itself. It hasn't happened since 2008. So even if covid gets
sorted in the next year or 2, the next financial crisis is just
around the corner. Which will be a double whammy on tourism. So
will we go back to 2018/19 in 2022 ? Not likely.
#Post#: 1097--------------------------------------------------
Re: Will 2022 see a return to mass travel?
DIR By: Smeg
Date: December 26, 2021, 11:30 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Covid is different to a financial crash though. A financial
crash stops some people traveling because they can't afford it,
whereas tourism actually caused the pandemic thanks to millions
of Chinese flying around the world in late 2019 and early 2020.
And the pandemic has been far more damaging to tourism than a
financial crash, because all people strictly can't travel rather
than some can't afford to.
I think pandemics are going to happen at least once per decade
going forward. Since the start of this century the world has
provided hundreds of millions of Chinese with the money and
equipment to travel the world. That would be fine if they
weren't in close contact (shops, restaurants etc) with hundreds
of millions of other Chinese who are still primitive peasants
working in low end jobs and living in very close proximity to a
wide variety of animals including wild animals.
#Post#: 1101--------------------------------------------------
Re: Will 2022 see a return to mass travel?
DIR By: Lamphun
Date: December 26, 2021, 11:45 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Smeg link ---
>
> I think pandemics are going to happen at least once per decade
going forward. Since the start of this century the world has
provided hundreds of millions of Chinese with the money and
equipment to travel the world. That would be fine if they
weren't in close contact (shops, restaurants etc) with hundreds
of millions of other Chinese who are still primitive peasants
working in low end jobs and living in very close proximity to a
wide variety of animals including wild animals.
>
--- End Quote ---
I hate to say it but you may have a point. Chinese agricultural
methods are ripe for propagating disease. Pigs kept above fish
ponds. Night soil in fruit orchards and vegetable plots. We
dodged a bullet when the original SARS arrived. There was no
mass Chinese tourism back then.
#Post#: 1103--------------------------------------------------
Re: Will 2022 see a return to mass travel?
DIR By: Smeg
Date: December 27, 2021, 12:36 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Thankfully Sars1 wasn't very contagious and most people who were
infected didn't infect anyone else, hence it fizzled out.
The next pandemic Sars3 (or even a mutation of Sars2 Omicron)
could be as deadly as Sars1 (10% fatality rate) and as
contagious as Omicron. In that scenario you could be looking at
close to a billion dead, making the current death toll seem
negligible.
#Post#: 1123--------------------------------------------------
Re: Will 2022 see a return to mass travel?
DIR By: Lamphun
Date: December 27, 2021, 5:33 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Smeg link ---
>
> Thankfully Sars1 wasn't very contagious and most people who
were infected didn't infect anyone else, hence it fizzled out.
>
>
--- End Quote ---
That’s because it killed them before they could pass it on.
Estimated death rates for those over 60 years was 55%.
#Post#: 1125--------------------------------------------------
Re: Will 2022 see a return to mass travel?
DIR By: Smeg
Date: December 27, 2021, 5:36 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Almost. They became contagious and ill at the same time so could
be isolated. Sars2/covid hides by only causing illness a few
days after the infected person can pass it on, or in many cases
remaining asymptomatic so they've no idea they're infecting
others.
#Post#: 1982--------------------------------------------------
Re: Will 2022 see a return to mass travel?
DIR By: Moose
Date: January 24, 2022, 6:12 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Smeg link ---
>
> I'm thinking that business model is gone forever and Thailand
will never see 40 million tourists per year again.
>
--- End Quote ---
I totally agree at least not this year. People don't want to
have to go through the whole hassle to go through the test and
go or sandbox way of entry.
Also, covid is on the rise, who would want to put their lives at
risk.
I hope things get better next year, but by then there could be a
more deadlier variant.
*****************************************************
Page 1 of 2
DIR Next Page