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#Post#: 122--------------------------------------------------
Re: TA Forex Trading
DIR By: jwilsontrade1878
Date: January 3, 2017, 4:41 pm
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There are 2 possible counts on GU that I can see, Kermit. The
long, really strong moves such as that big candle on your chart
are most often associated with Wave 3 price action movements in
Elliott Wave theory, so I suspect that the short term daily
chart should have that labeled as the start of a Wave 3 down
movement rather than Wave 1 down.
The weekly GU chart is really the best way to get a good picture
of what's going on overall. This first count assumes that the
final Wave 5 down in the larger C wave (a final expanding
diagonal price-action pattern) has finished and is ready to move
north hard. While I do think GU is prepping for a north move, I
don't think this count is quite accurate.
The second chart shows the count that I believe is more
accurate. It still predicts a northerly move back to retest the
low of Wave A back in June 2008...around 1.3475...before turning
south again for one more big dive and one final low. The second
chart basically assumes that the larger Wave 3 down movement is
finished and we'll see a progressive Wave 4 movement back up to
test the upper trendline on the expanding diagonal.
The second chart also goes along with what I'm expecting to see
on EU as well...one more move up on EU to wrap up a final E wave
in a larger ABCDE (basically a large Wave 4) pattern, and then a
sudden bearish drop all the way down to just below
parity...somewhere around 0.98 or 0.99. I would expect GU to
tank along with EU since it will most likely be attributed to
some bad news out of Europe as a whole.
So near term, GU long positions are still the best bet to take
advantage of the smaller Wave 4 back up. I say small, but that's
actually better than 1200 plus pips north of here...it just
looks small because of the larger time frame...LOL!
#Post#: 123--------------------------------------------------
Re: TA Forex Trading
DIR By: kermit42
Date: January 3, 2017, 6:44 pm
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1200 pips seems fairly large.
Thanks Pennies.
#Post#: 124--------------------------------------------------
Re: TA Forex Trading
DIR By: jwilsontrade1878
Date: January 3, 2017, 6:57 pm
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No problem Kermit. Here's a close up view of that internal wave
count in that expanding diagonal. If Wave 3 is indeed finished
to the downside, a Wave 4 retrace is typically 38.2 % of the
total length of Wave 3. That would put us back at 1.3256 which
is still shy of the 1.3475 to 1.35 target but still well within
the parameters of a typical Wave 4 movement.
So that's only a bit over 1000 pips away...
GU Daily Chart...The fibs in red are from the large Wave A on
the weekly...the one in yellow is measuring only the length of
the proposed Wave 3 in the diagonal...notice that they are
relatively close together. From a weekly perspective, the
difference is very minimal.
#Post#: 125--------------------------------------------------
Re: TA Forex Trading
DIR By: jwilsontrade1878
Date: January 3, 2017, 7:08 pm
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--- Quote from: javalin link ---
>
> I'm ready for it -been watching and waiting--lol getting
better about waiting--bout time THIS OLD DOG LEARNED NEW TRICKs
>
--- End Quote ---
Hey Jav, I think I'm gonna bail on the NU shorts at 0.68, just
above that 50% fib retrace level...just in case it tries to get
sneaky and head back up afterwards.
NU Daily chart...
#Post#: 126--------------------------------------------------
Re: TA Forex Trading
DIR By: javalin
Date: January 3, 2017, 7:14 pm
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looks like a good spot Pennies-- nzd/usd
#Post#: 127--------------------------------------------------
Re: TA Forex Trading
DIR By: javalin
Date: January 3, 2017, 8:21 pm
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Pennies take a look at AUD/JPY WEEKLY-should go down am i right
#Post#: 128--------------------------------------------------
Re: TA Forex Trading
DIR By: jwilsontrade1878
Date: January 3, 2017, 8:23 pm
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Looks just like the NJ chart Jav so I'd say yes, its likely to
dive.
Sent from my LGL62VL using Tapatalk
#Post#: 129--------------------------------------------------
Re: TA Forex Trading
DIR By: javalin
Date: January 3, 2017, 9:19 pm
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sure looks good to me-never had looked a weekly chart
before-maybe you've opened my eyes tks
#Post#: 130--------------------------------------------------
Re: TA Forex Trading
DIR By: jwilsontrade1878
Date: January 4, 2017, 7:21 am
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Weekly charts are very easy to trade Jav because there's no
stress involved like there is with day trading short time
frames. But, you have to be willing to basically set it and
forget it. If you try to sit and watch it during the day like we
do the small time frames, it will make you pull your hair out.
For weekly charts, I typically recommend that you use no more
than 2% of your total available margin in your account per
trade....1% is actually better. That way, you can handle the
larger movements that occur. A weekly chart can produce a few
hundred pips one way or another for or against your position
until it finally moves in your direction....sometimes more. That
sounds like a lot but it isn't if you've adjusted your position
accordingly.
One of the misconceptions and hindrances for a lot of traders is
that pips is their only focus, so they avoid longer time frames
like the weekly because it sends shivers down their spine to
think of having to hold a position that may go several hundred
pips against them. A single pip actually has no meaning at all
if you really break it down and think about it. The only two
things that matter is the value of that pip based on the number
of units you are trading and the percentage it represents to you
. So 1 pip of NU at 1000 units is vastly different than 1 NU pip
at 100,000 units....10 cents per pip vs. 10 dollars per pip. And
even that 100,000 units isn't relevant unless you take into
account the percentage that it reflects based on your total
account size. If I trade 100,000 units on NU and I only have a
few thousand dollars in my trading account, that's a huge risk
and can ruin the account quickly. But if I have an account with
100 grand in it, the 100,000 unit size is easily affordable and
represents no real risk...it's just another trade.
So to trade the weekly or daily or even monthly chart is no big
deal if you just adjust your expectations and your trade size
accordingly. Once you get your mindset focused on percentages
only, the rest takes care of itself. :-)
#Post#: 131--------------------------------------------------
Re: TA Forex Trading
DIR By: Heavyweight
Date: January 4, 2017, 10:29 am
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Looks like the FOMC may be the trigger to tank UJ for a while.
Should be around 2pm EST if I read it correctly
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