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Sober Thinking
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DIR Return to: Catastrophic Climate Change
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#Post#: 636--------------------------------------------------
“It turns out that methane also has a spectral signature in the
same wavelength range, and that’s what has allowed us to
DIR By: AGelbert
Date: November 4, 2022, 12:07 pm
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EcoWatch
October 28, 2022 by Olivia Rosane
[center]Where Are the Methane ‘Super-Emitters’? NASA Identifies
More Than 50 Major Methane Leaks From Space[/center]
There is 262 percent more methane in the atmosphere now than
there was before the start of the industrial revolution, but
where is all that methane coming from?
NASA’s Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT)
has enabled the agency to map more than 50 methane
“super-emitters” from space.
Full article:
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040422164555-532108.png
HTML https://www.ecowatch.com/methane-emissions-nasa.html
#Post#: 639--------------------------------------------------
🚩 Racing to Climate Disaster ☠️
DIR By: AGelbert
Date: November 6, 2022, 10:42 pm
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[center]
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-280922121533-20231141.png[/center]
[center]Racing to Climate Disaster[/center]
Posted on November 2, 2022, by Radio Ecoshock
Three U.N. Agencies warn of climate disaster. Canadian climate
scientist Paul Beckwith joins Alex to cover the latest science.
From the Land Institute in Kansas, author and plant breeder Stan
Cox talks climate and food in destabilized time.
🔊
HTML https://www.ecoshock.org/2022/11/racing-to-climate-disaster.html
#Post#: 640--------------------------------------------------
🚩...LARGE NICOLE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
DIR By: AGelbert
Date: November 7, 2022, 12:37 pm
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[center]
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-071122133122.png[/center]
And now a word from your loyal 😇 servants, the
Hydrocarbon 🦖 Fuels Products "Industry":
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-110822205742-1802655.jpeg
#Post#: 646--------------------------------------------------
... a 🚩 warning by science and a
🚨☠️ wake-up call by nature; ... ...
DIR By: AGelbert
Date: November 8, 2022, 1:00 pm
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EcoWatch
Tuesday, November 8, 2022
[center]“We’ve been given a warning by science and a 🚨
wake-up call by nature; it is up to us now to heed them.” – Bill
McKibben[/center]
[center]
HTML http://renewablerevolution.createaforum.com/gallery/renewablerevolution/2/3-251218182428-20521886.png[/center]
[center]UN Chief Says We Are on ‘Highway to Climate
Hell’[/center]
The latest round of UN climate change negotiations began in
Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt with an urgent warning about the
necessity of acting rapidly to avoid the worst impacts of the
climate crisis.
The conference, otherwise known as COP27, kicked off Sunday,
November 6, with a procedural opening followed by the World
Leaders Summit that launched Monday and concludes Tuesday,
according to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) website. It was on the first day of this gathering of
heads of state that UN Secretary-General António Guterres
delivered an uncompromising speech about the consequences of
failure.
Read more:
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040422164718-540294.gif
HTML https://www.ecowatch.com/un-climate-action-cop27.html
#Post#: 648--------------------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Nicole Heading for Florida Trump Resort
Mar-a-Lago
DIR By: AGelbert
Date: November 9, 2022, 1:17 pm
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AGelbert NOTE: I'm sure reality based readers here will agree
the following graphic is in the "Poetic Justice" category.
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-091122132747.gif
Feel free to pass it on, with or without attribution. Here's a
few more relevant graphics that you may want for your reality
based collection of Catastrophic Climate Change Causes and
Consequences.
[center]
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-250422171851-12071303.jpeg[/center]
[center]
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-110422161403.pnghttps://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-091122134236-2102358.png[/center]
[center]
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-091122134236-20931002.jpeg[/center]
[center]
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-091122161357.png[/center]
#Post#: 665--------------------------------------------------
“When I look at the largest carbon polluters, many of them, the
utilities that own them, don’t have plans to retire them
DIR By: AGelbert
Date: November 21, 2022, 6:36 pm
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INSIDE CLIMATE NEWS Pulitzer Prize-winning, nonpartisan
reporting on the biggest crisis facing our planet.
November 19, 2022 By Bob Berwyn and Zoha Tunio
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040422164555-532108.png
[center]
HTML http://renewablerevolution.createaforum.com/gallery/renewablerevolution/1/3-240718213435-14601598.gif<br
/>At COP27, an 11th-Hour Deal Comes Together as the
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040622153114-13822364.jpeg<br
/>US Reverses Course
HTML http://renewablerevolution.createaforum.com/gallery/renewablerevolution/1/3-250718202127.gifon<br
/>‘Loss and Damage’
HTML https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19112022/at-cop27-an-11th-hour-deal-climate-reparations/?utm_campaign=Hot%20News&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=234771588&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9hsH7Xb1U8Angdu1F-uGgX6Gh8exY8nVN50qYC4HOR8bPJKOc-YJV7YVKhHMUveGU4N286BSXWEswKj2bUqicRM8YqoQ&utm_content=234771588&utm_source=hs_email[/center]
[center]
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-110822211210-1840773.jpeg[/center]
#Post#: 669--------------------------------------------------
Republican attorneys general have tried and failed to use
litigation to block the Biden administration's use of social c
DIR By: AGelbert
Date: November 22, 2022, 5:50 pm
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[center]
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-220922211810-2001879.png[/center]
November 22, 2022
[center]EPA Floats New Social Cost Calculations On The DL
[/center]
The EPA has quietly proposed new, dramatically higher, estimates
for the societal costs incurred by greenhouse gas pollution. The
proposed EPA calculation offers a range of potential estimates
ranging from 2.4- to 6.7 times higher than the current interim
estimate of $51 per metric ton of CO2 pollution.
[center]
HTML http://renewablerevolution.createaforum.com/gallery/renewablerevolution/3-230717132319.png[/center]
The newly-proposed calculations do not dramatically increase the
social cost of methane but do substantially increase the social
cost of nitrous oxide, though not as much as CO2. The
calculations — known as the 'social cost' of greenhouse gasses,
including CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide — were first made
public when President Biden announced EPA's proposed
supplemental methane safeguards earlier this month at COP27,
though they were not used in that rule but were instead included
in a 137-page supplemental document dated September 2022.
The proposed EPA social cost calculations are separate from the
Interagency Working Group calculation expected in April, but an
EPA spokesperson told E&E the IWG could incorporate the draft
technical report into its work.
Republican attorneys general have tried and failed to use
litigation to block the Biden administration's use of social
cost calculations. A recent study in Nature
HTML https://nexusmedianews.com/top_story/government-estimates-of-carbon-pollution-cost-far-too-low/?utm_campaign=Hot%20News&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=234961320&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--ZyJhu62GTzXiDzWFeGyFX7t70RWSHbFkQtNqiorLE2vnPVvxHoNQrUHalE3_zDZjb1kexBmNVSLhGEoiSO_thCIXbLw&utm_content=234961320&utm_source=hs_email<br
/>also determined the interim social cost of CO2 is
substantially
lower than the true
cost
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-050422182057.gif<br
/>borne by society. (E&E $, Politico Pro $; Proposed
calculations
on page 9 of EPA .pdf
HTML https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2022-11/epa_scghg_report_draft_0.pdf)
--- Quote ---
> [center]EXTERNAL REVIEW DRAFT [/center][right]9[/right]
>
> It recommended these three criteria also be used to judge the
value of other updates to the methodology. It also
recommendedthat the IWG update SC-CO2 estimates at regular
intervals, suggesting a five-year cycle.
>
> Regarding the key components of the SC-CO2, the committee
recommended the following improvements:
>
> Socioeconomic and emissions projections: Use accepted
statistical methods and elicit expert judgment to project
probability distributions of future annual growth rates of
per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) and population, bearing
in mind the potential correlation between economic and
population projections. Use expert elicitation, guided by
information on historical trends and emissions consistent with
different climate outcomes, to project emissions for each
forcing agent of interest, conditional on population and income
scenarios. Additional recommendations were offered pertaining to
the time horizon, inclusion of future policies, disaggregation
of scenarios, and feedbacks from the damage module to the
socioeconomic
> module.
>
> Climate science: Adopt or develop a simple Earth system model
(such as the Finite Amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) model) to
capture the relationships between CO2 emissions, atmospheric CO2
concentrations, and global mean surface temperature change over
time while accounting for non-CO2 forcing and allowing for the
evaluation of uncertainty. Adopt or develop a sea level rise
component in the climate module that: (1) accounts for
uncertainty in the translation of global mean temperature to
global mean sea level rise and (2) is consistent with sea level
rise projections available in the literature for similar forcing
and temperature pathways. The committee also noted the
importance of generating spatially and temporally disaggregated
climate information as inputs into damage estimation. It
recommended the use of linear pattern scaling (which estimates
linear relationships between global mean temperature and local
climate variables) to achieve this goal in the near-term.
>
> Economic damages: Improve and update existing formulations of
individual sectoral damage functions when feasible; characterize
damage function calibrations quantitatively and transparently;
present spatially disaggregated market and nonmarket damages by
region and sector in both monetary and natural units
(incremental and total) and discuss how they scale with
temperature, income, and population; and recognize any
correlations between formulations when multiple damage functions
are used.
>
> Discounting: Account for the relationship between economic
growth and discounting; explicitly recognize uncertainty
surrounding discount rates over long time horizons using a
Ramsey-like approach; select parameters to implement this
approach that are consistent with theory and evidence to produce
certainty-equivalent discount rates consistent with near-term
consumption rates of interest; use three sets of Ramsey
parameters to generate a low, central, and high
certainty-equivalent near-term discount rate, and three means
and ranges of SC-CO2 estimates; discuss how the SC-CO2 estimates
should be combined with other cost and benefit estimates that
may use different discount rates in regulatory analysis.
>
> Additional details on the National Academies’ near-term
recommendations are provided in Section 2 below. The National
Academies’ final report also provided longer-term
recommendations pertaining to each module and identified
research priorities for addressing these recommendations.
>
> [right] 9 [/right]
--- End Quote ---
#Post#: 673--------------------------------------------------
🚩 "One of the biggest threats ☠️ to
the future of our civilization waits in the Arctic."
DIR By: AGelbert
Date: November 30, 2022, 8:02 pm
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RADIO ECOSHOCK
91 Radio Stations and Growing!
Posted on November 17, 2022, by Radio Ecoshock
[center]UNBROKEN NEWS: Why Is the Arctic Suddenly 🔥
Burning?[/center]
Guest Dr. David Gaveau on newly seen Arctic feedback. Alex rants
on COP27 Climate Conference. Al Gore’s COP27 opening remarks: we
are [i]failing[/i] and no one believes we will do anything to
stop emissions.
--- Quote ---
> “The clock is ticking. We are in the fight of our lives, and
we are losing. Greenhouse gas emissions keep growing. Global
temperatures keep rising – and our planet is fast approaching
tipping points that will make climate chaos irreversible.”
> – Antonio Gueterres, Secretary General of the United Nations,
opening the 27th Conference of the Parties in Egypt, November
2022.
--- End Quote ---
In our first interview, you will hear remarkable science. A new
feedback loop of wildfires and self-perpetuating heat erupted in
the last three years – in the Arctic! This has not been reported
in the news, but shows up on satellite images. Don’t miss David
Gaveau.
[center]
HTML https://www.ecoshock.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/ArcticFires_AerialShot.jpg[/center]
[center]DAVID GAVEAU – ARTIC: WILDFIRES FEED MORE HEAT[/center]
While COVID and war captured world attention, Arctic wildfires
are accelerating. 44% of Arctic burns in the last 40 years came
in the last three years. :o 😵😱 The pace is
accelerating and scientists warn the Arctic is approaching a new
tipping point pushing more warming on the whole world.
The paper is: “Unprecedented fire activity above the Arctic
Circle linked to rising temperatures”. A major author is forest
mapping expert Dr. David Gaveau. David has published over 60
papers, appears regularly in the media, and advises NGO’s and
the United Nations process.
🔊 Listen to or download this Radio Ecoshock show in CD
Quality (57 MB) or Lo-Fi (14 MB)
HTML https://www.ecoshock.org/2022/11/unbroken-news-why-is-the-arctic-suddenly-burning.html
#Post#: 686--------------------------------------------------
Cruise ship was struck by a rogue wave off the southern tip of
South America this week.
DIR By: AGelbert
Date: December 5, 2022, 6:40 pm
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HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-180822134328.png
December 2, 2022 by Mike Schuler
[center]
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040422164718-540294.gif[/center]
[center]Rogue Wave Kills Passenger on Viking’s Newest Polar
Expedition Cruise Ship
HTML https://gcaptain.com/rogue-wave-kills-passenger-on-vikings-newest-polar-expedition-cruise-ship/?subscriber=true&goal=0_f50174ef03-8253af2b9d-169600093&mc_cid=8253af2b9d&mc_eid=1855a0727e[/center]
Agelbert Reminder: IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE:
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040422164555-532108.png
Climate Change, Blue Water Cargo Shipping and Predicted Ocean
Wave Activity: PART 1 of 3
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/catastrophic-climate-change/future-earth/msg373/#msg373
#Post#: 697--------------------------------------------------
"... instead of working to solve the problem, some
corporations are trying to fan fan the flames of hate and fear
to arg
DIR By: AGelbert
Date: December 7, 2022, 3:16 pm
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[center]
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-220922211810-2001879.png[/center]
Make Nexus Hot News part of your morning: click [i]here
HTML https://climatenexus.org/hot-news/
to subscribe.[/i]
[center]
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-220922211808-20001173.png[/center]
December 7, 2022
SNIPPETS:
There are a lot of great ways to talk about climate change.
Framing it as a national security threat and telling Americans
that they should take climate action to prevent a flood of
climate migrants is not one of them. That's the very short
version of a new brief from Common Defense, one of the US's
largest veteran-based advocacy organizations, which worked with
human rights experts, defense policy wonks, and some of the
absolute smartest and most impressive climate communicators (us
here at Climate Nexus
HTML https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-120422122257-657398.png<br
/>to explain the pitfalls of the national security frame. ...
...
We need to present a vision of a better world and the best
pathway to get there. As the report aptly states, "We should
offer clear solutions and alternatives – both immediate and
visionary– and assert that we have the tools, ambition, and
expertise to build real safeguards. If we fail to offer these
solutions, reactionary voices will continue to win the day and
the world will 🚨 continue 😞 to grow hotter and
less safe."
Read more:
[center]Security For All: Demilitarizing Our Climate Narratives
HTML https://commondefense.us/climate-briefing-2022/?utm_campaign=Hot%20News&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=236968571&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8nW_jdbgxVscbSmV-SRweLCiqzbVvMD2DzBJUwJMrbr9ozXQ_FvCfw5qnXwfHWsdJRgiVDSaU415B12cllQYJBkAeKxQ<br
/>
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