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#Post#: 38600--------------------------------------------------
Game 23: vs Elon, 2/2 7pm
By: Checkmate Date: February 2, 2023, 11:55 am
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ELON (3-19, 3-7 CAA)
Last Game: Elon 72, Drexel 58 on 1/18/23
Last 10: 3-7
Last Game vs SBU: First-ever meeting
Checkmate Guess the Line: Stony Brook -3.5 (aargh! late change
from 4!)
NET Ranking: Stony Brook 319, Elon 346
KenPom Rating: Stony Brook 323, Elon 335
KenPom Prediction: Stony Brook 69, Elon 65
Watch:
HTML https://flosports.lin
k/3O0u9uZ
Listen: N/A
Notables:
6-0/160 gr G Sean Halloran 13.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.2 apg, 2.0 spg,
.914 FT%
6-5/200 sr G Zac Ervin 10.8 ppg, .340 3-pt FG%
6-5/200 fr F Max Mackinnon 10.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.1 spg, .482 FG%
6-5/200 gr F Torrence Watson 9.3 ppg, 5.3 rpg, .800 FT%
6-10/220 so F Max Sherry 9.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, .550 FG%
Oof, had this prepared early in the week and never found time to
circle back. Better a little brief and just hours before tipoff
than never.
Elon is coming off its first Division I season. Waiting until
mid December felt like an eternity for us; imagine the ire if it
was almost February! But the win was a real good one – an
18-point thrashing of a solid Drexel team. I sense that Elon's
better than its 3-19 record shows. They were up at halftime
against Charleston and Hofstra before fizzling out. They were
right there at home against a good Greensboro team, at home
against Towson and at Delaware but didn't prevail. Yeah, maybe
that's hand-picking games, but while they have many losses, they
haven't had many bad ones. They have trouble stringing together
a full 40 minutes.
Halloran's yet another case of a player coming up from Division
II and having an impact. We saw it with Sylla at Towson, Nelson
all the way up from D-III at W&M, and now Halloran, who left
Belmont Abbey as its all-time leader in assists and has the
reins of the Phoenix now. There may be more than I'm not
thinking of. We so often see players drop down and begin
producing at lower levels, but with the ease of transferring, it
feels like we're seeing more going the other way. Of the others,
I like the kid Sherry. He's a nice lefty who has some agility
and good feel in the paint.
Elon's going to hit us with the 2-3 zone, so let's see how we
handle that. It's so so easy to just shoot over it, but I don't
know that any of us want to see that. I like Policelli operating
at the free throw line here, where he can knock down the jumper
or take it to the tin. I was so impressed with the variety of
scoring we saw from him in the Hampton game. Worth keeping an
eye on down the stretch: he has 759 career points at Stony Brook
(he did have 18 at Dayton). He'd have to go on quite a run to
get to 1,000 (about 24 ppg per night), but he also has to
shoulder the load offensively with TSM out. So maybe? Especially
if we win a game in the CAAs?
The three is not a strength for Elon, yet while we should see at
least some zone, I do think we have the personnel to match up
with them if need be.
Big picture: Some bad news – The CAA is now one spot ahead of
the America East in KenPom's conference rankings. Some good/bad
news depending on who you ask – After beating Charleston,
Hofstra's on the verge of breaking into the top 100. It's good
for the conference, but now that we'll face them twice a year,
we can't claim to be Long Island's team if we're not competing
with them. Saturday might be a tough one. And mark my words,
we're a one-bid league this year whether Charleston wins the
conference tournament or not.
Can we get a W here even without an otherworldly effort from
Policelli? I mean, that's something you just don't see and can't
count on. But we kind of unleashed Muratori and Nahar and they
were pretty solid. The training wheels are off for TO (37
minutes!), and man, I think he's going to be excellent for us if
he sticks around (it's sad that you have to put that phrase
after every sentence when looking toward the future). I've seen
enough juice from Elon to suspect that they can compete here,
and the line shows that. But we have performed well on the home
floor, and I think this is a game where our bigs can do some
damage on both ends. Let's see if we can make it two in a row
here.
#Post#: 38601--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 23: vs Elon, 2/2 7pm
By: sbu1991 Date: February 2, 2023, 12:49 pm
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IMHO I dont care about kenpom...I want schools with name
recognition, with as many of them in the top-100 into the top
50. I think the CAA achieves that on a better level than the AE.
Also aside from men's BB it is an upgrade in all other sports
including LAX (I think)
#Post#: 38603--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 23: vs Elon, 2/2 7pm
By: Knicksbu99 Date: February 2, 2023, 2:06 pm
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Really feel like the CAA being this is poor is an outlier year.
This is a game where I wish TSM is playing to operate in the
free throw line area to rise up and hit threes with Policelli on
the outside as a floor spacer. Im ready for the training wheels
to come off for Nahar too better looking shot than Sarvan. Maybe
Fitz gets some iso touches near the rim he needs to show up very
good opportunity tn to get back to .500 in the league.
#Post#: 38604--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 23: vs Elon, 2/2 7pm
By: Checkmate Date: February 2, 2023, 2:22 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Mildly interesting and potentially misleading plus/minus numbers
through January (mind you StatBroadcast did not have a couple
OOC games):
[table][tr]
[td]Player [/td]
[td]+/-[/td]
[td] Minutes[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Nahar[/td]
[td]21[/td]
[td] 34[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Pettway[/td]
[td]-2[/td]
[td] 540[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Onyekonwu [/td]
[td]-16[/td]
[td] 388[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Muratori[/td]
[td]-17[/td]
[td] 146[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Policelli[/td]
[td]-76[/td]
[td] 723[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Roberts[/td]
[td]-77[/td]
[td] 503[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]TSM[/td]
[td]-85[/td]
[td] 792[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Fitzmorris[/td]
[td]-101[/td]
[td] 554[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Sarvan[/td]
[td]-110[/td]
[td] 602[/td][/tr][/table]
Others: Clarke -10; Heiden -11; Frey -22
#Post#: 38605--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 23: vs Elon, 2/2 7pm
By: sbu1991 Date: February 2, 2023, 2:22 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Knicksbu99 link=topic=989.msg38603#msg38603
date=1675368370]
Really feel like the CAA being this is poor is an outlier year.
This is a game where I wish TSM is playing to operate in the
free throw line area to rise up and hit threes with Policelli on
the outside as a floor spacer. Im ready for the training wheels
to come off for Nahar too better looking shot than Sarvan. Maybe
Fitz gets some iso touches near the rim he needs to show up very
good opportunity tn to get back to .500 in the league.
[/quote]
Not sure how long he will be out, but speedy recovery to TSM
(tonight?). What we've seen from Nahar makes me think he will
grow into an offensive presence with a nice touch from three.
#Post#: 38606--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 23: vs Elon, 2/2 7pm
By: sbu1991 Date: February 2, 2023, 2:24 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Checkmate link=topic=989.msg38604#msg38604
date=1675369339]
Mildly interesting and potentially misleading plus/minus numbers
through January (mind you StatBroadcast did not have a couple
OOC games):
[table][tr]
[td]Player [/td]
[td]+/-[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Nahar[/td]
[td]21[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Pettway[/td]
[td]-2[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Clarke[/td]
[td]-10[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Heiden[/td]
[td]-11[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Onyekonwu [/td]
[td]-16[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Muratori[/td]
[td]-17[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Frey[/td]
[td]-22[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Policelli[/td]
[td]-76[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Roberts[/td]
[td]-77[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]TSM[/td]
[td]-85[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Fitzmorris[/td]
[td]-101[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Sarvan[/td]
[td]-110[/td][/tr][/table]
[/quote]
The more playing time, the bigger the minus...more or less. ::)
#Post#: 38607--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 23: vs Elon, 2/2 7pm
By: Accelerator Date: February 2, 2023, 2:38 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
With how banged up we are +/- doesn't tell much when our
starters play so many minutes
#Post#: 38608--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 23: vs Elon, 2/2 7pm
By: Checkmate Date: February 2, 2023, 2:47 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Added a minutes column, which I don't think tells us that much
more, but there it is. Minutes include the few games that are
NOT factored into plus/minus. I think it's Bryant and Wagner,
and then I didn't include the non D-Is.
Pettway's production is notable, although he and Nahar got a big
bump from Policelli's run the last game (+19 and +15
respectively).
#Post#: 38609--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 23: vs Elon, 2/2 7pm
By: sbupatriots Date: February 2, 2023, 3:48 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Thanks for posting the +/-. Can you post the link to this? Two
observations: Of the starters, no surprise Policelli is much
better than the other bigs especially Sarvan. Pretty glaring
that Pettway has equivalent minutes to Roberts and he is 70
points better. Based off this I'd say we should run TO, Pettway,
TSM, Frankie and Fitzmorris with Nahar soon off the bench.
#Post#: 38610--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 23: vs Elon, 2/2 7pm
By: OldSeawolf Date: February 2, 2023, 4:40 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Knicksbu99 link=topic=989.msg38603#msg38603
date=1675368370]
Really feel like the CAA being this is poor is an outlier year.
This is a game where I wish TSM is playing to operate in the
free throw line area to rise up and hit threes with Policelli on
the outside as a floor spacer. Im ready for the training wheels
to come off for Nahar too better looking shot than Sarvan. Maybe
Fitz gets some iso touches near the rim he needs to show up very
good opportunity tn to get back to .500 in the league.
[/quote]
Gotta realize that the 3 newcomers: SBU, Hampton, and Monmouth
are all in the 300's in Kenpom. Add Elon to the mix, there's
your answer as to why CAA has fallen this year. Look for CAA to
bounce back in coming years.
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