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#Post#: 37328--------------------------------------------------
Game 1: at Florida, 11/7 8pm
By: Checkmate Date: October 31, 2022, 3:20 pm
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FLORIDA (20-14, 9-9 Southeastern in 2021-22)
Last Game vs SBU: Florida 87, Stony Brook 62 on 12/22/21; Sayles
team-high 16 points; outrebounded 40-21
Checkmate Unofficial Line: Florida -23.5
NET Ranking: TBD
KenPom Rating: Stony Brook 285, Florida 35
KenPom Prediction: Florida 84, Stony Brook 61 (nailed the
spread!)
Watch:
HTML https://www.espn.com/espnplus/player/_/id/f532b49f-8b57-418d-9730-06d8e6014ed2
Listen:
HTML https://www.wruf.com/listen-live/
Notables (2021-22 stats):
6-11/250 rsr F Colin Castleton 16.2 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 2.2 bpg, .546
FG%
6-0/170 jr G Trey Bonham 13.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.3 spg,
.478 FG%, .348 3-pt FG%, .826 FT% (at VMI)
6-3/185 gr G Kyle Lofton 12.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 5.9 apg, 2.0 spg,
.820 FT% (at St. Bonaventure)
6-4/205 so G Will Richard 12.1 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.2 spg, .468 FG%,
.804 FT% (at Belmont)
6-3/175 gr G Myreon Jones 8.5 ppg, 1.3 spg
Here we are, gents, less than a week away from the opening tip
to the 2022-23 season. I don't know about you but I feel as
uncertain about this year's team as any team before it, but
hopefully it comes together. At the very least, it's a new
frontier and I'm happy to be here.
Lots of questions, so we'll start with that.
1. Same every year: who's the guy? Last year, we had a few
choices. This year, do we have any? My guess: TSM.
2. Is Policelli ready to do more? He's been a solid spot-up
shooter and undersized center, but can he create? Can he be a
night-in-and-night-out 15 point guy?
3. Do we have a 30-35 minute ballhandler ready on day one? Does
TSM do it with Clarke out, or are Roberts or Onyekonwu ready for
prime time? With all of our height, this is the wrong year for
injuries to the backcourt.
4. Can our point guards actually distribute?
5. Do we have an actual offense, and if we do, can we in fact
knock down shots as has been advertised?
6. Coming from a power conference, can Fitzmorris demonstrate
that he is a bonafide big fish in a small pond?
7. Will Geno ever play Fitz, Muratori, Nahar and Sarvan all at
once? [emoji106]
8. How well can we guard on the perimeter and in transition with
a glut of big men? This is a big one, maybe the biggest of all.
9. Will the move to the CAA move the needle whatsoever in terms
of attendance?
I'm really interested to see what we get out of TSM and
Policelli. They're the elder statesmen at least on the roster,
and each has shown flashes of being a force in the past.
However, this is the CAA, not the America East. They are
unmistakably expected to take on more, and the opposition knows
that too. Is it like when a team's #1 wide receiver gets hurt
and suddenly the solid #2 looks overmatched when covered by the
opposition's top corner? For me, I'm really hoping that TSM,
undoubtedly with regular minutes after taxiing from the starting
five to the bench and back for a few years, it's now time for
him to shine. I think he has the tools to do so—maybe the
prettiest jump shot that I've seen since going to SBU games (not
as long as some of you), the ability to put it on the floor and
create, great athleticism, and on the other end, I think he gets
after it enough.
Policelli? I need to see if he's a scorer and not just a
shooter. I feel like we've been waiting for it, all because he
had that third star, and he's been OK but not a dominant force.
We're coming in with a team that, particularly with the
injuries, needs to walk the walk here. TSM and Policelli—nice
players to this point—combined for two points in our game
against Florida last year and have never been the guy like they
might have to be now. I'd point to Noll and Clarke as
stabilizing forces, but we won't have their services, nor
Philip. Sarvan is undoubtedly our most proven commodity outside
of that. But then Roberts has 14 career points. Fitzmorris has
six. With the injuries, Nahar, Muratori, the freshmen, they are
being thrown into it.
And Florida is a really tough first matchup. They've customarily
been very very stingy defensively, and even with the regime
change—Todd Golden coming over from San Francisco—there's still
so much proven talent and athleticism. I wish we had Miami
Christian in an exhibition, then Florida, rather than Florida
and an actual game against them. But here we are, wading into
the swamp and, let's face it, we're fresh meat for the Gators.
For Florida, it starts with Castleton, who I think 10 or 20
years ago would have jumped to the NBA without question, but in
the day and age where there is very little demand for 6-11 guys
who can't shoot in the NBA, he came back for his fifth season.
He almost singlehandedly has Florida in contention for a
tournament berth. If you watched him last year, it really was a
men amongst boys, and I suspect we'll have a similar feeling,
oh, about two minutes into this year's game. Just an array of
post moves, gets to the line, gets second-chance points, blocks
shots, changes shots – a huge asset to any college program. You
see a few guys like him around the country – Tshiebwe from
Kentucky, Timme from Gonzaga, Bacot from North Carolina, all
standouts in college but with a skillset that does not guarantee
stardom in the NBA. The aforementioned three were rightfully
named first team All-Americans in the preseason, but they're
fringe pros just because of how the game's played.
As I said, they brought in Golden, who took over Mike White, who
bolted from Gainesville to Georgia. That Castleton stayed is a
huge coup for Golden, and he has some complementary pieces who
know the terrain too. But let's talk about these transfers.
Lofton is going to have zero issue transitioning from St.
Bonaventure, where he scored 1600 points over four seasons
(COVID included). He's twice been named to the All A-10 first
team, and although he isn't this cold-blooded scorer with a
dead-eye three-ball, he found those shooters over and over again
at Bona. Whether Florida has those marksmen remains to be seen;
last year, they didn't, ranking 321st out of 350 teams in
three-point FG% at just over 30 percent. But these days, the
roster's different, the coach is different, maybe they light it
up!
Lofton's just the start of it. Richard was an all-conference
player at Belmont as a freshman. Trey Bonham averaged 14 a night
at VMI before transferring in. Alex Fudge is a four-star recruit
who saw solid minutes at LSU as a freshman; he's describe as
"ultra-athletic." Riley Kugel—four-star recruit. And then
there's the holdovers! And I just don't know that we have any of
that to be honest. Any of it. So what's that add up to? Trouble.
It's a bunch of seasoned athletes against a team of unprovens
just getting to know each other. It's just a really tough
matchup for us, exacerbated by the losses of Noll and Clarke.
We've had teams that hung around with high major teams and even
won (see Washington and South Carolina). I can't see it this
time though. All I can hope for is that we compete, we see some
strides from the incumbents and we see some positive signs from
the newcomers.
Either way, it's go time, and I'm pumped up about it.
#Post#: 37330--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 1: at Florida, 11/7 8pm
By: iBOsbu Date: October 31, 2022, 4:18 pm
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Awesome write up. So glad we have you writing previews! You
could be writing for ACC/BigEast teams. Nice analogy too “But
here we are, wading into the swamp and, let's face it, we're
fresh meat for the Gators.” Let’s go Seawolves!
#Post#: 37334--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 1: at Florida, 11/7 8pm
By: OldSeawolf Date: November 1, 2022, 9:56 am
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Nice job as always, Checkmate! For us, too many questions (I
agree). With Knoll out for year, and Clarke out for a bit, who
will handle the point? Roberts showed he wasn't up to the task
last year IMO, and that is the biggest obvious hole we have. If
we don't have a legit PG to distribute to the
land-of-the-giants, it could be an ugly slog for sure.
Going to enjoy this one on ESPN+, and still haven't decided if
I'm going all-in on Flo for the season. I was going to with
football, and so glad I didn't, as the product they put on the
field was the worst that I can ever remember.
In any event, go SBU! It shall be interesting.
#Post#: 37335--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 1: at Florida, 11/7 8pm
By: Chairman of the Board Date: November 1, 2022, 10:25 am
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the point should be anyone that will share the ball. ;D
thanks checkie! GO SB
#Post#: 37336--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 1: at Florida, 11/7 8pm
By: Knicksbu99 Date: November 1, 2022, 11:12 am
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Love the preview its a tough opening game for sure so probably
won’t be able to take much away from it could get ugly quick if
we throw out a freshman pg. TSM and Policelli i think have taken
a backseat to others glad to see them get their chance to be
primary options. They are unselfish players so i hope that
spreads to the rest of the team. Where last year jenkins and
roberts were very shoot first second and maybe pass third.
#Post#: 37337--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 1: at Florida, 11/7 8pm
By: steveoh Date: November 1, 2022, 11:20 am
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Todd Golden is an interesting and unique coach, exactly the type
we should be looking for. He served as an assistant under Kyle
Smith at Columbia and USF, eventually taking the head coaching
job there (and succeeding at a high level) and now he's at
Florida. The reason I bring this up is that Kyle Smith has a
very specific and analytics-driven method to running his teams
and recruiting for his teams which extends all the way down to
practices and how they relate to their players. It works for
them. Everyone gets it.
I'm not saying we should adopt an analytics-heavy approach. But
I do think we should have an approach. Be known for something.
Double-and-triple down on it. Maybe that's not doable in this
transfer portal world, but if you stand for something as a
program, and you find the right kids to buy in, maybe they'll
stay, and maybe you can build something sustainable. At the very
least, you'll be difficult to play against because you're just
different.
#Post#: 37338--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 1: at Florida, 11/7 8pm
By: Knicksbu99 Date: November 1, 2022, 11:29 am
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100 percent agree geno has no identity
#Post#: 37339--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 1: at Florida, 11/7 8pm
By: sbufan Date: November 1, 2022, 12:20 pm
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Checkmate, you're the best.
Here's to hoping that some of these freshman can ball. There
could be a lot of growing pains with this year.
#Post#: 37340--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 1: at Florida, 11/7 8pm
By: Checkmate Date: November 1, 2022, 2:01 pm
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Question #10: What if this season is bad, even really bad? With
unprecedented midseason player departures, no postseason
appearances, I would say modest fan excitement, and just one
year left on his contract, would SBU move on from Geno Ford
after the season? I think it has a chance to be really bad, and
the preseason poll supports that. Maybe I'm wrong—I really hope
I'm wrong—but on the surface, this is a tough group to have your
livelihood depending on. Nice guy but not a good coach from what
I can tell.
#Post#: 37341--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 1: at Florida, 11/7 8pm
By: OldSeawolf Date: November 1, 2022, 2:06 pm
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[quote author=Checkmate link=topic=961.msg37340#msg37340
date=1667329304]
Question #10: What if this season is bad, even really bad? With
unprecedented midseason player departures, no postseason
appearances, I would say modest fan excitement, and just one
year left on his contract, would SBU move on from Geno Ford
after the season? I think it has a chance to be really bad, and
the preseason poll supports that. Maybe I'm wrong—I really hope
I'm wrong—but on the surface, this is a tough group to have your
livelihood depending on. Nice guy but not a good coach from what
I can tell.
[/quote]
Funny, you should say that about Geno while I'm reading the
coaching bios. What do you think of the Dan Rickard Bio on
their website? Are they pumping him, and is he the heir
apparent?
HTML https://stonybrookathletics.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster/coaches/dan-rickard/1137
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