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#Post#: 29704--------------------------------------------------
Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
DIR By: Checkmate
Date: March 2, 2020, 9:17 am
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UMBC (14-16, 7-8 America East)
Last 10: 6-4
Last Game: Maine 74, UMBC 48 on 2/29/20
Last Game with SBU: Stony Brook 74, UMBC 63 on 2/1/20; Olaniyi
game-high 21; UMBC 5-26 from three
Checkmate Unofficial Line: Stony Brook -2
NET Ranking: TBA
KenPom Rating: Stony Brook 174, UMBC 276
KenPom Prediction: Stony Brook 66, UMBC 63
Listen/Watch:
TV:
HTML https://umbcretrievers.com/links/mj7lov
Notables:
6-2/180 sr G KJ Jackson 13.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.6 spg
6-10/210 jr F Brandon Horvath 10.5 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 1.0 spg, .351
3-pt FG%
6-3/225 so F RJ Eytle-Rock 9.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.5 apg, .364 3-pt
FG%
6-3/165 so G LJ Owens 9.5 ppg, .352 3-pt FG%, .845 FT%
6-8/240 jr F Dimitrije Spasojevic 9.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg, .609 FG%
This isn't the team that I want to face with the 2 on the line.
They just got humiliated up in Maine, and you forget just how
good they were for three weeks, winning five straight games to
launch themselves back into contention for a first-round home
game.
They'll undoubtedly steal an occasional glance at Durham on
Tuesday night. If UNH happens to falter against Lowell, that
puts UMBC in the driver's seat for the #4 spot, with Albany
needing to go to Vermont in their finale. I don't care if UVM
has clinched; that's not a good UA team. If UMBC and UNH are
even at 8-8, UMBC gets the nod with its win over top-ranked UVM.
But they need that UNH gaffe to happen first.
Care to guess who our best three-point shooter has been in
conference? Answer: Makale Foreman, who's been in a terrible
shooting slump yet is still our best option at 32-plus percent
in AE play. He had a couple eye-roll hoists against UA. The
bottom line is though that we're going to need him if we want to
make a run.
I wonder if Elijah returns for this one. Do we really want his
re-entry into the lineup to come during the AE tournament, or
can he give us some minutes in the finale?
I think when considering where we stand in the conference
tournament, it's important to remember that none of these teams
are invincible. Beating Vermont at Patrick will undoubtedly be a
tall task, but we've shown it can be done – and had a lead late
even without Olaniyi. Of course, the win feels like a decade ago
with the way we're playing now, but for 40 minutes, sure, we can
do it.
With UMBC, you may recall that Spasojevic dropped 17 on us and
was the only one scoring when UMBC wasn't knocking them down
from deep. He's a traditional back-to-the-basket guy, which you
don't see too much of in the AE. However, he was hurt in the
Maine game and his status is uncertain for Tuesday. We'll take
any edge we can get.
It feels like the last few times we've played UMBC – ever since
Will Darley lit us up at IFCU a couple years back – the
Retrievers have shot the ball poorly from deep. 5 for 26 last
game against us, and they were 3 for 23 in Bangor. That's kind
of the difference between the America East and the power
conferences. Guys in the latter category knock down open threes;
in our league they do so with less regularity. As far as threes
go, UMBC and SBU rank seventh and eighth in conference play,
both around 30 percent. Looking at it more broadly, according to
KenPom, only Vermont (92) and UMass Lowell (144) rank in the top
200 in adjusted offensive efficiency (points scored per 100
possessions against average defense).
Both teams need it. Ought to be a good game ... which is to say
close. Doubtful that it's pretty.
#Post#: 29705--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
DIR By: Moveitfred
Date: March 2, 2020, 10:35 am
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As always, thanks Checkmate.
Correct and appropriate to focus on the 3-ball here and forward.
Live or die by it. Sorry COB, not going away and probably not
moderated either anytime soon....
HTML https://stonybrookathletics.com/news/2020/3/1/mens-basketball-3-point-records-in-danger-as-seawolves-wrap-up-regular-season-play.aspx
#Post#: 29706--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
DIR By: SaltySeawolf
Date: March 2, 2020, 3:09 pm
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The question I have is, does this game mean everything, or does
this game mean nothing. We have no clue how 5, 6, and 7 are
going to work out so this really means hosting Hartford in a
semi or going to Hartford for a semi.
Edited 35 seconds later: I'm going to answer my own question -
karma will find a way to have us play Albany in the quarters and
they will relish the fact that they can knock us out.
#Post#: 29707--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
DIR By: OldSeawolf
Date: March 2, 2020, 3:34 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: SaltySeawolf link ---
>
> The question I have is, does this game mean everything, or
does this game mean nothing. We have no clue how 5, 6, and 7
are going to work out so this really means hosting Hartford in a
semi or going to Hartford for a semi.
>
> Edited 35 seconds later: I'm going to answer my own question
- karma will find a way to have us play Albany in the quarters
and they will relish the fact that they can knock us out.
>
--- End Quote ---
Let's do the math. Although possible, this is what would have
to happen for us to play UA in the quarters (let's assume every
game is a 50/50; that is, no home field or better team
advantage);
- We would have to win vs UMBC OR Hartford would need to lose to
Maine (3/4 chance that this will happen out of all possible
outcomes);
- UNH would need to lose at home to UML (1/2 chance that this
will happen);
- UA would need to win at UVM (1/2 chance that this will
happen);
So, probability wise that would mean (3/4) * (1/2) * (1/2) =
3/16 = 18.75% chance of this occurring, and that ignores home
field/better team advantages. I conclude, not likely.
Hope I didn't scare anybody here.
#Post#: 29708--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
DIR By: Moveitfred
Date: March 2, 2020, 4:12 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: SaltySeawolf link ---
>
> The question I have is, does this game mean everything, or
does this game mean nothing. We have no clue how 5, 6, and 7
are going to work out so this really means hosting Hartford in a
semi or going to Hartford for a semi.
>
> Edited 35 seconds later: I'm going to answer my own question
- karma will find a way to have us play Albany in the quarters
and they will relish the fact that they can knock us out.
>
--- End Quote ---
1. What we do know is we're not playing Bing in the quarters, so
I figure right there we've got a 50% chance (**unless we play UA
or beat UMBC tomorrow and play them, then see #2 below).
2. If we get through that one we all know it's impossible to
beat a team 3 times** in a season, so doesn't matter where we
play Hartford.
3. That said, count us as probable favorites to play UVM up
north.
#Post#: 29709--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
DIR By: Checkmate
Date: March 2, 2020, 5:42 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: OldSeawolf link ---
>
> [quote author=SaltySeawolf link=topic=838.msg29706#msg29706
date=1583183397]
> The question I have is, does this game mean everything, or
does this game mean nothing. We have no clue how 5, 6, and 7
are going to work out so this really means hosting Hartford in a
semi or going to Hartford for a semi.
>
> Edited 35 seconds later: I'm going to answer my own question
- karma will find a way to have us play Albany in the quarters
and they will relish the fact that they can knock us out.
>
--- End Quote ---
Let's do the math. Although possible, this is what would have
to happen for us to play UA in the quarters (let's assume every
game is a 50/50; that is, no home field or better team
advantage);
- We would have to win vs UMBC OR Hartford would need to lose to
Maine (3/4 chance that this will happen out of all possible
outcomes);
- UNH would need to lose at home to UML (1/2 chance that this
will happen);
- UA would need to win at UVM (1/2 chance that this will
happen);
So, probability wise that would mean (3/4) * (1/2) * (1/2) =
3/16 = 18.75% chance of this occurring, and that ignores home
field/better team advantages. I conclude, not likely.
Hope I didn't scare anybody here.
[/quote]
There’s also the chance that we win, Lowell wins and UA loses.
In that case, Lowell, UMBC and Albany are all 7-9, all 3-3
against each other, and Albany slides to 7 with no wins over the
top three.
I think.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
#Post#: 29710--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
DIR By: OldSeawolf
Date: March 2, 2020, 5:59 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Checkmate link ---
>
> [quote author=OldSeawolf link=topic=838.msg29707#msg29707
date=1583184878]
> [quote author=SaltySeawolf link=topic=838.msg29706#msg29706
date=1583183397]
> The question I have is, does this game mean everything, or
does this game mean nothing. We have no clue how 5, 6, and 7
are going to work out so this really means hosting Hartford in a
semi or going to Hartford for a semi.
>
> Edited 35 seconds later: I'm going to answer my own question
- karma will find a way to have us play Albany in the quarters
and they will relish the fact that they can knock us out.
>
--- End Quote ---
Let's do the math. Although possible, this is what would have
to happen for us to play UA in the quarters (let's assume every
game is a 50/50; that is, no home field or better team
advantage);
- We would have to win vs UMBC OR Hartford would need to lose to
Maine (3/4 chance that this will happen out of all possible
outcomes);
- UNH would need to lose at home to UML (1/2 chance that this
will happen);
- UA would need to win at UVM (1/2 chance that this will
happen);
So, probability wise that would mean (3/4) * (1/2) * (1/2) =
3/16 = 18.75% chance of this occurring, and that ignores home
field/better team advantages. I conclude, not likely.
Hope I didn't scare anybody here.
[/quote]
There’s also the chance that we win, Lowell wins and UA loses.
In that case, Lowell, UMBC and Albany are all 7-9, all 3-3
against each other, and Albany slides to 7 with no wins over the
top three.
I think.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Spot on, Checkmate, good catch. So to complete the geeky math,
that would increase the chance of a QF SBU/UA matchup, as
follows (I think), since we would need to add the probability of
a UMBC loss, UML win, and UA loss (1/8 chance of that
happening), as an unrelated possible occurrence:
The revised probability would be [(3/4) * (1/2) * (1/2)] +
(1/8) = 5/16 = 31.25% (significant increase over 18.75%)
Probably easiest just to watch the games ;D
#Post#: 29711--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
DIR By: NoVA_Seawolf
Date: March 2, 2020, 7:24 pm
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How about we just run the table for the rest of the year and
hold the trophy in April ;D
#Post#: 29712--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
DIR By: Hammertime
Date: March 3, 2020, 5:22 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: VA_Seawolf link ---
>
> How about we just run the table for the rest of the year and
hold the trophy in April ;D
>
--- End Quote ---
That would need a miracle to happen. Even if Olanyi returns for
the Playoffs, he will not be 100% and a little rusty. This
Basketball team clearly has no leadership and is lost without
him. That all falls on the HC. Sorry, but I have my doubts about
Geno Ford. His 4 years at Bradley is really starting to show
now.
#Post#: 29713--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 31: at UMBC, 3/3 7pm
DIR By: Checkmate
Date: March 3, 2020, 10:50 am
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We are a three-point favorite tonight. If all the favorites win,
we play Lowell here on Saturday.
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