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#Post#: 29484--------------------------------------------------
Game 27: vs. Vermont, 2/20 7pm
DIR By: Checkmate
Date: February 18, 2020, 10:32 pm
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VERMONT (21-6, 11-1 America East)
Last 10: 10-0
Last Game: Vermont 76, Binghamton 48 on 2/16/20
Last Game with SBU: Stony Brook 81, Vermont 77 on 1/8/20;
Olaniyi 28, Foreman 23; SBU 13-27 from three
Checkmate Unofficial Line: Vermont -4.5
NET Ranking: Stony Brook 159, Vermont 79
KenPom Rating: Stony Brook 146, Vermont 66
KenPom Prediction: Vermont 69, Stony Brook 66
Listen/Watch:
TV:
HTML http://bit.ly/BBallGm27Vid
Radio:
HTML http://wusb.fm/
Notables:
6-6/225 sr F Anthony Lamb 16.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.0 spg, 1.3 bpg
6-2/185 jr G Stef Smith 14.2 ppg, 1.1 spg, .461 FG%, .445 3-pt
FG%
6-8/250 so F Ryan Davis 10.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg, .534 FG%, .837 FT%
6-6/190 rsr G Everett Duncan 7.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg, .877 FT%
6-2/200 rjr G Ben Shungu 7.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg
We've lost a little luster off this one, between the Olaniyi
injury and the gap in the standings. While I think it'll be
difficult to expect us to sweep the season series from a
revenge-minded UVM, it would be great if we can stay in this
one. But it'll be tough. Vermont is rolling.
What can't be overlooked is just how well we played up in
Burlington. We showed a LOT of guts, getting on the floor,
getting on the glass, closing out shooters, going strong to the
hole, and we got the result we wanted, even after falling down
7-0 early. You can't overlook the shooting either – 13 for 27
from deep, with big nights from Olaniyi and Foreman. And this is
against an elite defense that currently ranks third nationally
in FG% defense.
I think we all thought that we could reasonably argue that we
were the favorite to win the league at that point. That tune has
obviously changed.
Normally, you'd say 6-3 since then isn't bad, but Vermont has
been impressive, just flattening everyone during their current
11-game win streak to open up a 2 1/2 game lead on us. They're
beating AE teams by an average of 15 points a night, which has
allowed Becker to go deep into his bench and give his stars a
longer breather than normal. In AE play, 10 Catamounts average
at least 10 minutes a night, and nobody is above Lamb's 29.5. We
don't quite have that length and production, especially with
Olaniyi out. We're going to need some Herculean efforts to keep
pace. Big test for TSM: he's been monstrous against lower-level
teams but can he continue to produce against the league's
pre-eminent force?
It's pretty astonishing what UVM has done on the boards in
conference play, winning the rebound battle in all 12 conference
games and posting a plus-10 or better on the glass in seven of
those contests. Part of it is the kid Davis, who's emerged as a
real force since the AE schedule began. After hitting double
digits in just three non-con games, he's hit for 10 or more in
eight of 12 AE games, including in each of the last five. It was
Davis – not Lamb or Smith – who converted in the waning seconds
in a near slip-up at Hartford.
He's still the third option well back of Lamb and Smith, who I
think we were all impressed with in the first go-around. So
quick with the dribble, tough, wants to take big shots, the
whole nine. He's shooting nearly 51 percent from three in
conference play. Meanwhile, we're headed south in that
department. I'd imagine this is Latimer's assignment once again,
but it does hurt to lose a highly capable defender in Elijah.
UVM barely even needs this game, but to avenge their only loss
and all but salt away the 1 seed I have to think means we'll see
a motivated group Thursday night. There's also a big one going
on in the state capital with UMBC taking on Albany. If UMBC can
grab that, they'll move to 6-6 and very much bring into question
whether we can snag a first-round home game. What is nice is
that, for any teams we split with, we'll have the huge win over
UVM to hang our hat on for the second tiebreaker.
#Post#: 29485--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 27: vs. Vermont, 2/20 7pm
DIR By: Moveitfred
Date: February 19, 2020, 1:03 pm
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My gut instinct is that UVM pummels SBU well beyond the
projections, but seems more often than not my gut instinct is
wrong in such matters...which I hope is the case.
In the longer term, thought the opening sentence in the article
about TSM posted yesterday by SBU athletics was interesting:
"With leading scorer Elijah Olaniyi briefly sidelined due to
injury...." That word "briefly" stood out for me with the
gravity of its subjectivity and mystery.
#Post#: 29486--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 27: vs. Vermont, 2/20 7pm
DIR By: Hammertime
Date: February 19, 2020, 1:09 pm
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--- Quote from: Moveitfred link ---
>
> My gut instinct is that UVM pummels SBU well beyond the
projections, but seems more often than not my gut instinct is
wrong in such matters...which I hope is the case.
>
> In the longer term, thought the opening sentence in the
article about TSM posted yesterday by SBU athletics was
interesting: "With leading scorer Elijah Olaniyi briefly
sidelined due to injury...." That word "briefly" stood out for
me with the gravity of its subjectivity and mystery.
>
--- End Quote ---
Technically SB should lose this game by 20 without Olaniyi, but
who knows these days. I say VT wins by 15...
#Post#: 29487--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 27: vs. Vermont, 2/20 7pm
DIR By: Seawolf97
Date: February 19, 2020, 3:07 pm
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Vermont should win by 15-20 . Our bigs cant control a smaller
but more talented Lamb . Interesting to see how our freshman
plays in his first start against a very good team .
#Post#: 29488--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 27: vs. Vermont, 2/20 7pm
DIR By: Checkmate
Date: February 19, 2020, 3:54 pm
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I love TSM's springiness. He gets good elevation on his jumper
and attacks the offensive glass with abandon. It's worth noting
that he is 16 for 22 on twos to this point (.727). Small sample
size, but the rest of the team is under 43 percent. I know we
don't want to shoot mid-range jumpers all day, but he's been
fantastic in that regard. Real nice stroke.
#Post#: 29489--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 27: vs. Vermont, 2/20 7pm
DIR By: SaltySeawolf
Date: February 19, 2020, 4:15 pm
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A loss is not great for securing a home court semifinal game,
I'm not sure we beat Vermont three times in one season. I'm ok
with a drubbing.
#Post#: 29492--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 27: vs. Vermont, 2/20 7pm
DIR By: OldSeawolf
Date: February 19, 2020, 9:08 pm
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We’ll lose by 10-15, imo, and will play hard in front of 3,500+
fans. Elijah still in a boot on campus. 4 of our last 5 games
are tough; it’ll be hard to hold onto the #2 without him.
#Post#: 29493--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 27: vs. Vermont, 2/20 7pm
DIR By: Checkmate
Date: February 20, 2020, 10:42 am
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The line opened up around 4 but it's up to 7.
#Post#: 29494--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 27: vs. Vermont, 2/20 7pm
DIR By: Hammertime
Date: February 20, 2020, 10:47 am
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--- Quote from: Checkmate link ---
>
> The line opened up around 4 but it's up to 7.
>
--- End Quote ---
Too low. 15, even at home should be the line. If I were a
betting man I'd bet the ranch on Vermont.
#Post#: 29495--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 27: vs. Vermont, 2/20 7pm
DIR By: Seawolf22
Date: February 20, 2020, 2:17 pm
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Need the 3pt shooting % differential to be around 15-20% in our
favor to have a chance tonight
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