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#Post#: 28760--------------------------------------------------
Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
DIR By: Checkmate
Date: January 5, 2020, 7:46 pm
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VERMONT (10-5, 0-0 America East)
Last Game: Vermont 77, Dartmouth 68 on 1/2/20
Last Game with SBU: Vermont 56, Stony Brook 50 on 3/2/19; SBU 7
for 29 from three; Lamb 14, Yeboah 11
Checkmate Unofficial Line: Vermont -6
NET Ranking: TBD
KenPom Rating: Stony Brook 140, Vermont 77
KenPom Prediction: Vermont 70, Stony Brook 61
Olaniyi 1,000 Point Watch: 924
Listen/Watch:
TV:
HTML https://www.espn.com/watch/search/vermont
Radio:
HTML https://uvmathletics.com/watch/?Live=289&type=Live
Notables:
6-6/225 sr F Anthony Lamb 17.1 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg
6-2/185 jr G Stef Smith 14.7 ppg, 1.3 spg, .406 3-pt FG%
6-6/190 rsr G Everett Duncan 8.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, .905 FT%
6-8/250 so F Ryan Davis 8.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, .506 FG%, .857 FT%,
.355 3-pt FG%
6-2/200 rjr G Ben Shungu 7.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg
Game of the Year, part one. Let's dive in.
One very noticeable difference between this year's Vermont team
and past versions – these guys have not shot it like their
predecessors. Take a look at this. I probably could have gone
back much further.
14-15: .471 FG%/.355 3-pt FG%
15-16: .481/.383
16-17: .494/.369
17-18: .488/.401
18-19: .458/.359
19-20: .424/.298
They've had sharpshooters for years – McGlynn, Steidl, Ward,
Ernie Duncan. But ... this group has struggled at times. Lamb
has drifted outside but not hit with regularity. It's really
been just Smith from deep with a little of Davis. Other than
that, everybody's under 30 percent. Of course, anybody can catch
fire in one game – you'll remember Everett Duncan lit us up in
our gym last year – but they haven't been on to this point. Lamb
(.365 last year, .231 this year) and Duncan (.367 last year,
.290 this year) feel due. That said, we have the athletes to
stay with their shooters, but because Lamb's kind of a tweener
matchup for Olaniyi/Garcia, because have rim protection and
because UVM hasn't been as sharp from deep, I do wonder if we do
go zone. We stuck around with Virginia doing that.
Might they try to pound it inside instead? The transfer Giddens
isn't really a scorer, but Lamb is obviously a concern and Davis
is capable. Still, I just don't think that's this team's game.
In the past, at their best, 30-35 percent of their shots came
from three. This year? 43 percent. And they lack shooters. So
what gives?
Another of Vermont's biggest advantages in past years also
hasn't been there – the free throw line. Let's take at made free
throws during that same stretch of time.
14-15: UVM 14.6/opp 14.6
15-16: UVM 14.8/opp 14.8
16-17: UVM 13.0/opp 10.0
17-18: UVM 16.3/opp 9.7
18-19: UVM 14.9/opp 10.8
19-20: UVM 12.0/opp 12.0
During the 17-18 season, they took 277 more free throws than
their opponents, or about 8 more per game. TBH, Henson,
Urquhart, Lamb when healthy – they wore out a path to the line.
Part of that is winning; you're up, you get fouled, you take
free throws. But this was different. They took 32, 30 and 37
free throws in the three games against us that year. And then
last year: 30 attempts in the rout here, just 15 when we kept it
close up there. That all adds up. And looking at this year, we
have been disciplined, giving up just 10 free throws a night,
and I don't think they have the guards or the force inside of
years past.
We should keep an eye on the injury report. Shungu missed the
start of the season with a hamstring injury and then the last
few he reaggravated it. And while he hasn't been an impact guy
in our past matchups, he proved to be an important piece for UVM
in the games he did play. He's thick so at just 6-2/200 he was
second behind Lamb on the glass before getting hurt. He's been
considered day-to-day but maybe he'll be healthy enough for
their conference opener. Again, not a big-time scorer though.
Guys, I know it's Vermont, I know it's at their place, but I
think we win this game. We have guys who can comfortably switch
on D, even Gueye, and we can defend from baseline to baseline if
need be. As I've said in many prior previews, teams are going to
have to shoot it well against us. And offensively, we have
multiple guys who can both attack the rim and keep the D honest
by knocking down threes. We didn't have that even in the Warney
years.
Fired up for this one. I have faith that we can pull it out.
#Post#: 28761--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
DIR By: guest369
Date: January 5, 2020, 8:28 pm
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Anthony Lamb's struggles have really gone under the radar. 23%
from three! 38% shooting! He's been horribly inefficient this
year. He's still scoring decently because he takes so many shots
(second most in the conference). He's supposed to be their key
threat but if we double him, then what? Stef Smith has been
their best shooter this year.
#Post#: 28762--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
DIR By: NoVA_Seawolf
Date: January 5, 2020, 10:41 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Excellent analysis as usual Checkmate. I'm not as optimistic as
you are, but I like the way you think. As long as it's
competitive I'll be ok with the outcome. As long as we beat them
in March.
--- Quote from: Green Baron link ---
>
> Anthony Lamb's struggles have really gone under the radar. 23%
from three! 38% shooting! He's been horribly inefficient this
year. He's still scoring decently because he takes so many shots
(second most in the conference). He's supposed to be their key
threat but if we double him, then what? Stef Smith has been
their best shooter this year.
>
--- End Quote ---
Should have gone to the NBA!!
#Post#: 28763--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
DIR By: Hammertime
Date: January 6, 2020, 5:34 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: VA_Seawolf link ---
>
> Excellent analysis as usual Checkmate. I'm not as optimistic
as you are, but I like the way you think. As long as it's
competitive I'll be ok with the outcome. As long as we beat them
in March.
> [quote author=Green Baron link=topic=822.msg28761#msg28761
date=1578277728]
> Anthony Lamb's struggles have really gone under the radar. 23%
from three! 38% shooting! He's been horribly inefficient this
year. He's still scoring decently because he takes so many shots
(second most in the conference). He's supposed to be their key
threat but if we double him, then what? Stef Smith has been
their best shooter this year.
>
--- End Quote ---
Should have gone to the NBA!!
[/quote]
Lamb didnt go to the NBA because he wasnt getting any interest
from teams and new he would not have been drafted. Smart move to
finish up on his education and then try again. Chances are, Lamb
will follow the same path as Warney. G league for a couple of
years and will play in the European or Asain basketball league.
#Post#: 28764--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
DIR By: ry1nik
Date: January 6, 2020, 7:03 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: Hammertime link ---
>
> [quote author=VA_Seawolf link=topic=822.msg28762#msg28762
date=1578285682]
> Excellent analysis as usual Checkmate. I'm not as optimistic
as you are, but I like the way you think. As long as it's
competitive I'll be ok with the outcome. As long as we beat them
in March.
> [quote author=Green Baron link=topic=822.msg28761#msg28761
date=1578277728]
> Anthony Lamb's struggles have really gone under the radar. 23%
from three! 38% shooting! He's been horribly inefficient this
year. He's still scoring decently because he takes so many shots
(second most in the conference). He's supposed to be their key
threat but if we double him, then what? Stef Smith has been
their best shooter this year.
>
--- End Quote ---
Should have gone to the NBA!!
[/quote]
Lamb didnt go to the NBA because he wasnt getting any interest
from teams and new he would not have been drafted. Smart move to
finish up on his education and then try again. Chances are, Lamb
will follow the same path as Warney. G league for a couple of
years and will play in the European or Asain basketball league.
[/quote]
Agee with Hammer. The last player in the NBA of any note with
Lamb’s size and skill set was Dan Majerle, and that was back in
the 90s. There are too many taller players now who can shoot
threes. I don’t know if Lamb will make it even in the G league.
#Post#: 28765--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
DIR By: OldSeawolf
Date: January 6, 2020, 9:17 am
---------------------------------------------------------
I think if Lamb had any chance at NBA, this past year was the
year, since draft class was pretty weak, especially in 2nd
round. Draft class will be stronger this year. He may get a
quick look as a free agent, but agree with others, G League or
overseas (probably the latter) is where he'll wind up. Getting
degree is certainly a longer-term plus for him.
It's early still, but his #'s may be down, because he's trying
to do it all (inside and out), with the loss of Ernie. I think
VT is weaker this year than last, and we're about even, with 1
year more experience, and the Mo for Akwasi trade-off. We
certainly have the capability to win on Wed night; it remains to
be seen if we can win at Patrick. Glad to see we TCB yesterday
- Maine is pretty poor team though; that was rough to watch.
#Post#: 28766--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
DIR By: Checkmate
Date: January 6, 2020, 9:49 am
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: OldSeawolf link ---
>
> I think if Lamb had any chance at NBA, this past year was the
year, since draft class was pretty weak, especially in 2nd
round. Draft class will be stronger this year. He may get a
quick look as a free agent, but agree with others, G League or
overseas (probably the latter) is where he'll wind up. Getting
degree is certainly a longer-term plus for him.
>
> It's early still, but his #'s may be down, because he's trying
to do it all (inside and out), with the loss of Ernie. I think
VT is weaker this year than last, and we're about even, with 1
year more experience, and the Mo for Akwasi trade-off. We
certainly have the capability to win on Wed night; it remains to
be seen if we can win at Patrick. Glad to see we TCB yesterday
- Maine is pretty poor team though; that was rough to watch.
>
--- End Quote ---
And Makale. I think he's been just a huge addition. As far as
high-volume, high-efficiency shooters goes, he's right there
with Dougher in the discussion for the best we've had at the D-I
level. Am I overstating? Maybe I am. Dougher's been gone a
while.
#Post#: 28767--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
DIR By: Chairman of the Board
Date: January 6, 2020, 1:28 pm
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im actually pulling for lamb- more AE alums in the professional
ranks is good for the conference.
#Post#: 28768--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
DIR By: OldSeawolf
Date: January 6, 2020, 5:27 pm
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Checkmate, my bad for not mentioning Makale. Although Cornish
improved a lot from Jr->Sr year, Makale definitely an upgrade
over Cornish, particularly in the scoring arena. I personally
think Makale is a notch above Dougher, and maybe a wash when it
comes to Carson, who was more of a slasher. Not sure how far u
go back with SBU D1, but DJ Munir was a star for us, especially
the year we won 19 or 20 games with him at the point, as an
early D1 Independent team. I think he averaged about 17 ppg, and
to me he’s our Best D1 point guard to date. Makale has the
potential to be better. All imo, of course.
P.S. Hate to be dating myself here, but Larry Tillery (R.I.P.)
was our PG the year we went Final 4 in DIII days in 1977-1978.
He was an exciting player, was definitely D1 caliber imo, and
deserves honorable mention in SBU PG lore.
#Post#: 28769--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 17: at Vermont, 1/8 7pm
DIR By: Chairman of the Board
Date: January 6, 2020, 7:11 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
spot on- would add el amin too.
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