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#Post#: 25976--------------------------------------------------
Game 30: at Vermont 3/2 7pm
DIR By: Checkmate
Date: February 28, 2019, 11:00 pm
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VERMONT
Record: 22-6 (12-2 America East)
Last 10: 8-2
Last Game: Vermont 69, Binghamton 63 on 2/23/19
Last Game with SBU: Vermont 73, Stony Brook 52 on 1/26/19; SBU
season-low 30.8 FG%, no Lamb for UVM
Checkmate Unofficial Line: Vermont -6
Net Ranking: Stony Brook 154, Vermont 84
KenPom RPI: Stony Brook 166, Vermont 83
KenPom Prediction: Vermont 72, Stony Brook 63
Yeboah Point Watch: 1,263
Division I: Currently 6th. Next up: Mitchell Beauford (2003-08)
1,359
All-time: Currently 12th. Next up: Mitchell Beauford (2003-08)
1,359
Listen/Watch:
TV:
HTML http://bit.ly/MBBGm30Vid
Stony Brook radio:
HTML http://bit.ly/WUSBSports_FM
Notables:
6-6/225 jr F Anthony Lamb 21.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.0 bpg, .517 FG%,
.345 3-pt FG%, .780 FT%
6-3/190 rsr G Ernie Duncan 14.6 ppg, .484 FG%, .440 3-pt FG%,
.824 FT%
6-1/170 so G Stef Smith 11.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.0 spg, .808 FT%
6-6/190 rjr F Everett Duncan 6.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, .370 3-pt FG%,
.900 FT%
6-5/190 fr G Robin Duncan 5.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, .770 FT%
First of all, what I believe to be true ...
- If we win out, we're the #1 seed
- If we win Saturday, the worst we can finish is 2nd. Any
scenario in which we split the final two games, we finish 2nd.
- The worst that we can finish is 3rd.
- If we lose and Hartford wins Saturday, Tuesday's game at
Hartford is for the #2 seed. A Hartford win would make it go
Hartford 2, SBU 3, UMBC 4. A SBU win would make it SBU 2, UMBC
3, Hartford 4.*
- If we lose and Hartford loses Saturday, Tuesday's game at
Hartford determines who gets the #2 seed. A Hartford win would
make it go UMBC 2, SBU 3, Hartford 4. A SBU win would make it
SBU 2, UMBC 3, Hartford 4.*
- If we win and Hartford wins Saturday, Hartford would need to
win Tuesday's game against SBU to get the #3 seed. If not, UMBC
is the 3 and Hartford is the 4.*
- If we win and Hartford loses Saturday, we are the 2, UMBC is
the 3 and Hartford is the 4.*
* All of this is assuming that UMBC handles its business at home
against UNH.
Listen, it had been a while since we've been humiliated at home
like we were last month against UVM. There have been some
gut-wrenching ones of course, but very few blowouts. We hadn't
lost by 20-plus points at home since December 2009 when St.
Peter's ran us out of Pritchard.
I hope the taste of that defeat is in our guys' mouths the whole
ride up I-91. That was a good old-fashioned butt-whuppin they
put on us—WITHOUT THEIR BEST PLAYER—and we shouldn't take it
lying down. If the prospect of a #1 seed in the conference
tournament isn't enough incentive, I hope that that loss is.
We may have thought that UVM would roll over and die once it was
made certain that Lamb would sit with a concussion. Instead,
they put on a clinic. Not the perfect shooting night by any
stretch, but they got to the line, they got Akwasi and Jeff in
foul trouble, they turned Cornish into a jump shooter, they
forced the whole team into jump shooters, they didn't let us
bully them on the glass. We tried to reel them in and get the
crowd back into it, but UVM never let us make that big run. I
feel like Everett Duncan made twice as many corner threes as he
actually did. Although they only hit seven threes, it felt like
all of them were daggers
If I were them, I'd play us the same way – sag off Cornish, sag
off McKenzie, nothing easy inside. It had to be a season-low
number of points in the paint. I'd do the exact same thing. We
have found our stroke a bit of late and maybe we can keep the
momentum going this weekend.
UVM's big problem has been finding production from guys not
named Anthony Lamb or Ernie Duncan. That wasn't a problem
against us – EvDunc had 20 and Smith 13. But they've both cooled
off, Smith in particular. He was even pulled from the starting
lineup against Binghamton last weekend in favor of Ben Shungu.
EvDunc also replaced RobDunc.
Still, it seems like Becker presses all the right buttons up
there. We had five players in double figures on Wednesday. It
would be incredible to get the same kind of production so the
spotlight isn't on Akwasi so much. He has to stay out of foul
trouble. He's done well with that this year after long spells on
the bench a season ago. That said, we're better offensively with
Latimer, Cornish, Olaniyi and Garcia all capable of 10 or more.
And boy, if Otchere could give us 25 minutes, what a difference
that would make. He played just six in the second half last
time—spells of 2:43, 2:23 and 1:22—before fouling out with 1
points, 4 boards and 1 block in 15 minutes total. And Latimer,
on Wednesday we saw a glimpse of the jumper we fell in love with
in the first half of the season. Keep that up. We need it. And
coaches, our offense was so stagnant in the last game. Cornish
is so so vital to me. I don't think we have a shot if he isn't
in double figures.
Looking forward to it, boys. I hope that our boys are looking
forward to exacting some revenge themselves.
#Post#: 25977--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Vermont 3/2 7pm
DIR By: OldSeawolf
Date: March 1, 2019, 6:40 am
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Checkmate, as always, OUTSTANDING analysis to a tee!
Agree that Boals has to make adjustment to not let us fall in
the trap of Cornish becoming a jump shooter again. We fell for
that Becker strategy hook, line, and sinker, and was certainly
part of the problem in Game 1. And like you stated, we need to
stay out of foul trouble against this very physical team. Jeff
and 25? It's been mostly an oxymoron all year, but we could
really use him to clog up the middle, so that we can exert more
perimeter D against Ernie and Lamb.
Perfect on the scenarios. One thing to add, don't count on UNH
to rollover to UMBC. By virtue of their road win against UA the
other night, they are still alive for the 8th seed. If UNH wins
at UMBC on Sat and Maine loses at home to Bing, they will play
at UNH on Tuesday for the 8th seed. I believe magic # for Maine
is 1. Currently, all applicable tie-breakers after head-to-head
(conference road wins and RPI) go to Maine, but with Fleming
out, anything can still happen here. 2 wins for UNH and 2
losses for Maine give it to UNH; I think that's the only way UNH
gets in.
#Post#: 25981--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Vermont 3/2 7pm
DIR By: Seawolf97
Date: March 1, 2019, 11:13 am
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Tall order to beat UVM at home on Senior night . i expect a
closer game but I dont think we can win this one either . We
would really have to eliminate turnovers and stay out of foul
trouble . We struggle at both . Dont lob up the 3 ball from
downtown and play tough inside and maybe we have a chance.
#Post#: 25982--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Vermont 3/2 7pm
DIR By: Chairman of the Board
Date: March 1, 2019, 11:30 am
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agreed. though we were hot shooting the other night- some of
the long-NBA threes are not going to swish on other nights.
im still a fan of keeping our shots behind the arc limited to
20. if we hit 7, consider it a good day. take more high %
shots. we have the size, we have the dribble-drive, we have the
depth, use it. let the opportunities for threes come to us and
take them when we are uncontested.
#Post#: 25983--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Vermont 3/2 7pm
DIR By: OldSeawolf
Date: March 1, 2019, 12:53 pm
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I know I need to get a life, but I'm off today, and Saturday
can't come fast enough :) I think here's another remote
scenario where we go 1-1 and still get the # 1:
- SBU beats UVM, but loses to Hartford;
- UVM loses to SBU AND loses to UML;
- UMBC wins over UNH;
- Hartford wins over UA AND beats SBU;
With that scenario, UVM and SBU tie for 1st at 12-4, and UMBC
and Hartford finish at 11-5 (Hartford gets the #3). Tie-breaker
has UVM going 2-2 against UMBC/Hartford; and we are also 2-2 vs.
UMBC/Hartford. So, next head-to-head comparison would be with
5th place team (UML). We are 2-0 against them; UVM would be 1-1.
We get the #1 !!!
In above scenario, if UMBC loses to UNH, then UVM gets the #1,
by virtue of going 2-0 vs. Hartford who is in sole possession of
3rd place (we would be 1-1 against Hartford).
#Post#: 25984--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Vermont 3/2 7pm
DIR By: NoVA_Seawolf
Date: March 1, 2019, 12:53 pm
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Go for the win and the 1 seed in any case, but I'd really really
like things to workout match up wise where we'd get Hartford in
the 2nd round of the AE tourney while Vermont gets UMBC. I'm not
sure there's a scenario where SBU, Vermont, UMBC, and Hartford
finish 1, 2, 3,and 4 in that order, but it would be nice.
Hartford is no gimmie, but UMBC has been the only team able to
give Vermont fits all year so far.
#Post#: 25985--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Vermont 3/2 7pm
DIR By: OldSeawolf
Date: March 1, 2019, 1:20 pm
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--- Quote from: VA_Seawolf link ---
>
> Go for the win and the 1 seed in any case, but I'd really
really like things to workout match up wise where we'd get
Hartford in the 2nd round of the AE tourney while Vermont gets
UMBC. I'm not sure there's a scenario where SBU, Vermont, UMBC,
and Hartford finish 1, 2, 3,and 4 in that order, but it would be
nice. Hartford is no gimmie, but UMBC has been the only team
able to give Vermont fits all year so far.
>
--- End Quote ---
Agree that I'd prefer to see Hartford in 2nd round than UMBC,
even though Hartford is playing great ball now. Odom is a much
better coach than Gallagher, IMO.
Wait, if we win both games, and UMBC beats UNH, we have SBU 1,
UVM 2, UMBC 3, Hartford 4.
#Post#: 25986--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Vermont 3/2 7pm
DIR By: Chairman of the Board
Date: March 1, 2019, 1:26 pm
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do we really think maryland BC could sweep vermont thrice in one
season???
#Post#: 25987--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Vermont 3/2 7pm
DIR By: OldSeawolf
Date: March 1, 2019, 1:31 pm
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--- Quote from: Chairman of the Board link ---
>
> do we really think maryland BC could sweep vermont thrice in
one season???
>
--- End Quote ---
In Vermont, not a chance..............
#Post#: 25989--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Vermont 3/2 7pm
DIR By: NoVA_Seawolf
Date: March 1, 2019, 6:11 pm
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--- Quote from: OldSeawolf link ---
>
> [quote author=Chairman of the Board
link=topic=759.msg25986#msg25986 date=1551468403]
> do we really think maryland BC could sweep vermont thrice in
one season???
>
--- End Quote ---
In Vermont, not a chance..............
[/quote]
They already beat them twice and knocked them off at Vermont
last year. Not a chance is excessive.
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