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#Post#: 21192--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31
DIR By: OldSeawolf
Date: February 1, 2018, 3:13 pm
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Here's a thought on 2nd half FT's:
Since it's literally a coin toss as to whether we make one or
not at the line, on FT's how about the SBU players bang the ball
hard off the rim on every FT attempt, with the intent of
possibly getting a rebound off the clank, and try to get another
shot attempt - let's be optimistic and assume that they will all
be 2-point attempts off the rebound.
So, here's some math to add some credence to this "OldSeawolf
FT" strategy:
Let's assume we shoot 50% from the line down the stretch, and
shoot 40% from inside the arc down the stretch - just to keep
the math reasonably simple and realistic.
Trying to make 10 FT's down the stretch should yield 5 points,
given the 50% FT shooting rate. That becomes our expected
baseline.
Now let's also assume for argument sake that 6 of these 10 FT's
are 2-shot fouls (hence, 3 of those 6 will be in-play after the
FT goes up), and the other 4 are 1-and-1. That would mean that
for these expected 10 FT's, we have 7 FT attempts that are
in-play on a miss. Everyone still with me here?
Further, let's assume that of the 7 FT attempts that are
in-play, we clank the ball off the rim, and through judicious
planning and rim angle geometry, we are able to snare 5 of those
7 on rebounds. We wind up taking 5 extra shots, a potential of
10 points, and at a 40% make rate, our expected # of points off
these missed FT rebounds becomes 10 x 0.40 = 4 points. Add to
that the expected 1.5 points that are expected from the 3 FT's
that are not in play (dead ball FT's), and this strategy yields
an expected total of 5.5 points; an entire 1/2 point more than
just taking FT's and trying to hit them - a whopping 10%
increase in point production on FT's down-the-stretch. Let's
round up that extra 1/2 point to 1 point, and we just beat UML,
and avoided OT. Pure genius!
I think I'm onto something here that is more powerful than meets
the eye. This may become the future of SBU basketball, and may
catch on around the NCAA. The entire key to success for this
strategy is mastering the clank and understanding rim geometry.
We may want to base all of our future recruiting on kids that
"know how to miss FT's".
#Post#: 21193--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31
DIR By: guest282
Date: February 1, 2018, 5:42 pm
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Very creative solution, OldSeawolf, although i can't help but
think making free throws is the more efficient approach.
#Post#: 21194--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 23: vs. UMBC 1/31
DIR By: Seawolf97
Date: February 1, 2018, 6:37 pm
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Just food for thought . I watched Ochefu at the beginning of
the second half in warmups last night . He sank 3 3s from way
downtown with nothing but net. 3 in a row with nothing but net
something Warney could never do . Yet he tippy taps a layup for
two . I mean this guy needs a confidence class . That's 9 points
he swished without even a blink . Imagine a future with a 6'8
kid shooting 3s or controlling the boards all at one game .
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