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#Post#: 42946--------------------------------------------------
Game 30: at Drexel, 2/29 7pm
By: Checkmate Date: February 27, 2024, 3:43 pm
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DREXEL (18-11, 11-5 CAA)
Last Game: Drexel 70, Delaware 60 on 2/26/24
Last Game vs SBU: Stony Brook 67, Drexel 66 on 1/12/23; TSM
go-ahead jumper with 9 seconds left; Policelli and TSM 37 pts on
14-20 shooting
Checkmate Guess the Line: Drexel -7.5
NET Ranking: Stony Brook 210, Drexel 126
KenPom Rating: Stony Brook 208, Drexel 122
KenPom Prediction: Drexel 73, Stony Brook 64
Watch: SNY or
HTML https://bit.ly/3khRxsK
Listen: www.wkdu.org
TSM Point Watch: 1,239; Next up: 12th – Akwasi Yeboah (2016-19)
1,317
Notables:
6-3/185 so G Justin Moore 12.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.1 spg
6-10/265 sr G Amari Williams 12.2 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 1.8 bpg, .518
FG%
6-4/220 gr G Luke House 7.9 ppg, 3.4 rpg, .377 3-pt FG%
6-6/215 gr F Mate Okros 6.6 ppg, .875 FT%, .406 3-pt FG%
6-6/205 gr F Lucas Monroe 6.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, .571 FG%
The double bye ship has pretty much sailed, barring a Towson
no-show at A&T on Thursday, or UNCW going in the tank this last
week, but there is some real benefit to getting into the 5/6
slot, which we are in position to do. However, going in and
beating Drexel in a place where they're 11-1 on the year will
take a special kind of effort, and following that up with a win
on Saturday will too. But it's possible.
Drexel exploded out of the gates in conference play, going 7-0,
their best start since Malik Rose (!), but hit the skids in late
January, losing four of five, albeit all against upper-echelon
CAA teams on the road. And it made you wonder whether they'd
peaked early, if they just didn't travel well, or both. Their
early-season resume featured one of the best wins that our
conference had all year – a win over Villanova in their debut
season as part of Philly's Big 5 (6). But their record on the
road nosedived, with wins against three CAA patzers but
struggles otherwise ... until Monday, when they looked very
sharp in beating Delaware.
Moore, to me, will be arguably the biggest X-factor in the CAA
tournament. They badly need him to be there for three or four
nights in a row, particularly on the offensive side as a
catalyst for everything. Williams is just this load underneath,
and House and Okros are deadly from deep, but it's Moore's
ability to get downhill and break down the defense that is such
a weapon. I thought he was going to be even more of a force for
them this year. However, we're still talking about a sophomore.
TSM was playing 14 minutes and taking three shots a night at
that point, and now look at him. I think Moore's awesome and one
of the more unguardable guys in the league. I just don't know
that Clarke, Noll or Frey can stay in front of him.
He's about the only lithe player on the team. Everybody else is
thick. They have seven guys over 200 pounds who play meaningful
minutes; we have four. That's in part why they're so good on the
glass at +8.2 for the season, and a league-best +6.4 in
conference play. Monroe was a real nice addition from Penn to
help on the glass and in general. Drexel has won the rebounding
battle in 14 of their 16 conference games, and in 26 of 29 games
overall.
Looking ahead, I would even argue that the 6 is better than the
5 with the way Charleston is playing at the moment. What we have
shown this year, although we have had some hiccups, is that we
can play with anybody. There are just ebbs and flows week by
week, even minute by minute. You can't help but shake your head
at the ways we've unraveled in games that, now that we're
scrutinizing the seeding, would have helped out so much.
The most likely (albeit unlikely) paths to the 4 seed as far as
I can see:
1:
• Stony Brook (+9 per KenPom) over Drexel
• Stony Brook (-1) over Delaware
• Hofstra (+5) over UNCW
• Towson (+7) over UNCW
• Northeastern (+10) over Drexel
2:
• Stony Brook (+9) over Drexel
• Stony Brook (-1) over Delaware
• A&T (+9) over Towson
• UNCW (-7) over Towson
• Northeastern (+10) over Drexel
I just can't see A&T beating Towson at this point, not without
Shell. But scenario 1 ... maybe? It's fun to mess around with.
Kudos to NYR for sharing that website. I can't find a more
plausible way than the above.
Fun fact: Last leap year game was 2/29/20, a 52-49 win over
Albany. Before that, it was a 74-72 overtime loss at UNH on
2/29/04. I do feel like another tight one is incoming. A
nine-point spread would feel like a lot.
We're in a decent spot, and should have a good afternoon on
Saturday to see this team off to DC. It'd be great to punctuate
these guys' careers here with a win; they've been excellent at
home. TSM's been on a bit of a scoring binge, but he might still
need a run to the CAA semis to pass Akwasi on the scoring list.
That Akwasi got his in just three seasons here is pretty
impressive. If you tack on his production at Rutgers, he's over
1,600.
I'd love a sweep, but think that a split is more realistic,
putting us in a spot to get the 7 seed. I'd say I'd be satisfied
with that but ... if we win Thursday, and things shake out in
our favor elsewhere, it'd be awesome to have this golden
opportunity this weekend.
#Post#: 42948--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Drexel, 2/29 7pm
By: sbupatriots Date: February 28, 2024, 7:51 am
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After Konstantynovskyi went for 20-20 on us a few weeks ago I'm
not optimistic we will be able to keep Williams off the glass.
Short of an impressive night from us from 3 point land, it will
be tough to cover this spread. Sort of feels like a game Geno
pulls the starters early and saves some legs for what should be
a really fun Senior Night on Saturday.
#Post#: 42951--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Drexel, 2/29 7pm
By: Accelerator Date: February 28, 2024, 2:56 pm
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Woof, did not realize Drexel was 11-1 at home this year. They
looked vulnerable when they started tailspinning from 7-0 but if
that was all on the road then it does not look good for us.
Need Northeastern to somehow shock Delaware on the road, and for
Monmouth to keep traveling poorly at Hampton.
#Post#: 42961--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Drexel, 2/29 7pm
By: OldSeawolf Date: February 29, 2024, 10:39 am
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Low expectations for tonight - on the road against a strong team
who is better than their conference record indicates, IMO. A
win would certainly be a big plus, and would make things
interesting. Still, a loss tonight, and win on Saturday, gets
us a #7 seed, under most circumstances.
#Post#: 42965--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Drexel, 2/29 7pm
By: nyrfan1013 Date: February 29, 2024, 12:00 pm
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Drexel - G Justin Moore (illness) is probable tonight versus
Stony Brook.
Well even if he does play, maybe he will not be 100%
#Post#: 42975--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Drexel, 2/29 7pm
By: Chairman of the Board Date: February 29, 2024, 6:27 pm
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i like our 2-3 against this squad. williams is a handful and
requires a lot of attention- physical attention.
#Post#: 42976--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Drexel, 2/29 7pm
By: OldSeawolf Date: February 29, 2024, 6:42 pm
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Fitz going off. I like our choice of shots so far, except for 2
really bad 3’s. Moore is a player; we need to find a way to shut
him down.
#Post#: 42977--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Drexel, 2/29 7pm
By: Accelerator Date: February 29, 2024, 6:44 pm
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Fitz was just having his way with Drexel's backup center. Have a
feeling Drexel called timeout to put Williams back in.
#Post#: 42978--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Drexel, 2/29 7pm
By: Chairman of the Board Date: February 29, 2024, 6:47 pm
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this was a really, really good half against a good team. we
were prepared, beating the press, the 2-3 zone is working (i
think). our shots are falling, and drexel had some trouble
finishing at the rim (some of which was our doing).
williams is literally taking 2 players at a time, fitz/maidoh
are spelling each other for him. if philip got more playing
time, he'd be a star.
i keep saying just have fitz skyhook 2 pointers all day and its
working. why weve done anything other than this since 2016 is
baffling. truly baffling. GO SB
#Post#: 42979--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 30: at Drexel, 2/29 7pm
By: Accelerator Date: February 29, 2024, 6:52 pm
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Even the biggest optimist in me couldn't have predicted we'd be
up tonight.
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