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#Post#: 42918--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 29: vs William & Mary, 2/24 1pm
By: sbupatriots Date: February 24, 2024, 2:01 pm
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Never felt great but can't get upset with a 13 point conference
win. 42% from 3 and 91% from the line were nice. Frey and Fitz
off the bench made the difference. Quiet 18-7-3 line from AC.
@Drexel should be fun.
#Post#: 42919--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 29: vs William & Mary, 2/24 1pm
By: Chairman of the Board Date: February 24, 2024, 2:02 pm
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my theory- it works.
#Post#: 42920--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 29: vs William & Mary, 2/24 1pm
By: Accelerator Date: February 24, 2024, 2:03 pm
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We ended up outscoring them by 1 in the second half but it was
very sloppy. I wanted to put the hammer down them by more than
20, but they have too many 3-point shooters to make it happen.
We have to stop fouling the 3 shooters.
Back to back great games by Frey. His first two in conference
play somehow, I thought he got one in before.
#Post#: 42924--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 29: vs William & Mary, 2/24 1pm
By: Checkmate Date: February 24, 2024, 3:25 pm
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We're now 12-2 against Quad 4 teams, 3-11 against the rest.
We're too deep for a one-dimensional team like W&M.
Thursday's a big one. We're won seven of our last 10, six of
those coming at home. Can we go into Drexel and win? We get a
little bump with Drexel having to play on Monday.
I know what some people are doing ... can we actually get higher
than 6 if things break right? We can't reel in Charleston, and
assuming Hofstra beats Elon tonight, and UNCW doesn't lose every
game the rest of the year, that's three teams we can't catch. I
don't think we surpass Towson unless they completely bottom out
at A&T next week. I can't find a "mini-conference" tiebreak with
them that favors us either. So that would be four and rule out
the double bye. But can we get to 5? Or 6? Does it really matter
as far as tournament odds go? At first I said no, but it's a
yes. Avoiding the 7 means we get A&T/Elon in the first game as
opposed to Northeastern/Campbell, and then Hofstra/Towson as
opposed to Charleston/UNCW.
I started to map out some scenarios, but there are just too many
paths that this can go. In general, we have the tiebreaker but a
far more difficult week ahead than Monmouth. Northeastern's
playing well just in time for meetings with Delaware and Drexel
next week. I think a Delaware win on Monday helps us. I think.
Bottom line, LFG.
#Post#: 42925--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 29: vs William & Mary, 2/24 1pm
By: sbu1991 Date: February 24, 2024, 4:31 pm
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If things fall into place SB could be a game behind 3rd place by
Monday.
#Post#: 42928--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 29: vs William & Mary, 2/24 1pm
By: OldSeawolf Date: February 25, 2024, 2:53 pm
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[quote author=Checkmate link=topic=1094.msg42924#msg42924
date=1708809926]
We're now 12-2 against Quad 4 teams, 3-11 against the rest.
We're too deep for a one-dimensional team like W&M.
Thursday's a big one. We're won seven of our last 10, six of
those coming at home. Can we go into Drexel and win? We get a
little bump with Drexel having to play on Monday.
I know what some people are doing ... can we actually get higher
than 6 if things break right? We can't reel in Charleston, and
assuming Hofstra beats Elon tonight, and UNCW doesn't lose every
game the rest of the year, that's three teams we can't catch. I
don't think we surpass Towson unless they completely bottom out
at A&T next week. I can't find a "mini-conference" tiebreak with
them that favors us either. So that would be four and rule out
the double bye. But can we get to 5? Or 6? Does it really matter
as far as tournament odds go? At first I said no, but it's a
yes. Avoiding the 7 means we get A&T/Elon in the first game as
opposed to Northeastern/Campbell, and then Hofstra/Towson as
opposed to Charleston/UNCW.
I started to map out some scenarios, but there are just too many
paths that this can go. In general, we have the tiebreaker but a
far more difficult week ahead than Monmouth. Northeastern's
playing well just in time for meetings with Delaware and Drexel
next week. I think a Delaware win on Monday helps us. I think.
Bottom line, LFG.
[/quote]
Like you said, a lot of different paths. But if we lose to
Drexel next week, then we would want Drexel to defeat Delaware
tmrw night. If we defeat Drexel next week, then we would want
Delaware to defeat Drexel tmrw night. Drexel holds tiebreaker
over us, since they beat UNCW and Hofstra, but if we defeat
them, and they lose to Northeastern or Delaware, we can overtake
both Drexel and Delaware, with SBU wins in the next 2 games. If
the above plays out, and if Towson loses both of their last 2
games on the road, we conceivably could still get a # 4. I
think.
#Post#: 42932--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 29: vs William & Mary, 2/24 1pm
By: Accelerator Date: February 25, 2024, 10:33 pm
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Through 16 games (which is nice to look at it because it reminds
me of the old NFL seasonal records):
1. Charleston (13-3)
2. UNCW (11-4)
3. Hofstra (11-5)
4. Drexel (10-5)
5. Towson (10-6)
6. Delaware (9-6)
7. Stony Brook (9-7)
8. Monmouth (9-7)
9. Northeastern (7-9)
10. Campbell (6-9)
11. Elon (5-11)
12. NC A&T (5-11)
13. William & Mary (3-13)
14. Hampton (2-14)
We need Delaware to lose tomorrow, because then they fall to 9-7
and we would take the 6th seed via tiebreaker, since we beat
UNCW and Delaware did not.
Towson plays at NC A&T and UNCW. Towson is 1-1 against
Charleston so I don't know how that works with tiebreakers. But
we should root for them to lose both.
Hofstra plays at UNCW and at Charleston. Brutal stretch for
them. If they lose out and we win out, we'd have the tiebreaker
over them since we beat UNCW and they wouldn't. Ugh, this is
where the Tyler Thomas game hurts us even more knowing that it
genuinely cost us a lot in seeding right now.
It's more realistic to pass Delaware than Drexel, so I'm rooting
for Drexel. Even if we lose to Drexel and Delaware beats
Northeastern at home, we'd be 9-8 and Delaware would be 10-7,
which means if we win the final game, we would tie them for
record and own the tiebreaker for 6th seed.
However........ we would also need Monmouth (who is a doormat on
the road) to lose at least one to Hampton and Elon. Hampton has
won 2 of their last 3. Elon has beat Delaware at home. It's
possible! Because if Monmouth wins both, even if us and Delaware
are tied, they leapfrog to the 6th seed at 11-7.
AND.... in the event that us, Hofstra AND Monmouth all finish
11-7, we would have the tiebreaker since we would be the only
one to have beaten UNCW.
Man, writing this all out is making my brain hurt.
#Post#: 42933--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 29: vs William & Mary, 2/24 1pm
By: nyrfan1013 Date: February 26, 2024, 5:27 am
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Here’s a cool link that you can mess around with every scenario
and then see the seedings along with a bracket
HTML https://bball.notnothing.net/caa.php?sport=mbb
#Post#: 42935--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 29: vs William & Mary, 2/24 1pm
By: Checkmate Date: February 26, 2024, 2:19 pm
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[quote author=nyrfan1013 link=topic=1094.msg42933#msg42933
date=1708946868]
Here’s a cool link that you can mess around with every scenario
and then see the seedings along with a bracket
HTML https://bball.notnothing.net/caa.php?sport=mbb
[/quote]
Awesome find. What's interesting is that we could really use a
Hofstra win in one of these final two games. Us being 0-2
against them is devastating in any mini-conference tiebreak
scenarios. The 5 seed isn't out of the question. I even got us
to 4 with Delaware over Drexel, A&T over Towson, and a Hofstra
win somewhere. But that middle part ain't happening.
#Post#: 42938--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 29: vs William & Mary, 2/24 1pm
By: Accelerator Date: February 26, 2024, 2:49 pm
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That would have saved me some time last night, lol.
So turns out our UNCW win only helps us in a 2-team tiebreaker.
In a 3-team tiebreaker, it's head to head among the three teams,
and we'd lose out on that one against Hofstra/Towson/Delaware.
Thus, in order for us to get the 6 seed, we need Monmouth to
lose BOTH at Hampton and Elon, so that only us and Delaware are
tied at 10-8 and our UNCW win holds supreme.
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