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#Post#: 42690--------------------------------------------------
Game 24: at Elon, 2/8 7pm
By: Checkmate Date: February 5, 2024, 8:14 pm
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ELON (10-13, 3-7 CAA)
Last Game: Elon 69, North Carolina A&T 65 on 2/3/24
Last Game vs SBU: Elon 69, Stony Brook 55 on 2/2/23; Elon 46-22
first half; TO team-high 14
Checkmate Guess the Line: Stony Brook -1.5
NET Ranking: Stony Brook 200, Elon 306
KenPom Rating: Stony Brook 196, Elon 314
KenPom Prediction: Stony Brook 76, Elon 72
Watch:
HTML https://my.flosports.tv/partner/caa?utm_campaign=caa&utm_medium=partner&utm_source=teams&utm_content=teams&rtid=stonybrook&coverage_id=
Listen:
HTML https://thevarsitynetwork.com/audioapplink/source/oas-411/content/elon:allaccess-Live-303
TSM Point Watch: 1,118; Next up: 19th – Scott Walker (1984-88),
1,131
Notables:
6-5/205 so G Max Mackinnon 12.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, .460 FG%, .396
3-pt FG%
6-4/185 so G TK Simpkins 11.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.6 spg
6-1/180 gr G Rob Higgins 11.3 ppg, 3.0 apg, 1.0 spg, .471 FG%,
.855 FT%, .350 3-pt FG%
6-10/220 jr F Sam Sherry 9.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.1 bpg, .583 FG%
6-7/200 fr G Nick Dorn 9.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, .374 3-pt FG%
So here is where we have to make our push. We may still be
licking our wounds from some bad losses, but we actually
weathered the storm pretty well – if you're just looking at wins
and losses of course. 5-5 heading into this part of the schedule
isn't bad.
Of course, last year we had a stretch of five 300-plus opponents
in a six-game stretch and we went 1-4. Before that, in such a
stretch, we won all five by an average of more than 21 points
back in February 2016. We're somewhere in the middle now, and
I'd even say we're closer to the latter than the former. 1-4
would be unspeakable. 5-0 though ... maybe not impossible? Or
even expected?
We're 3-8 on the road, but if you take away the games in which
we were heavy underdogs, we're 3-3, and you could easily argue
that we should have won all three against three real good
opponents (Towson, Delaware and Hofstra). Elon has not been very
good, with five of their seven losses coming by double digits.
They're just 1-4 in conference play at home. So as far as a
home-court advantage, there isn't much of one to speak of.
Let's take a look at our plus/minus just past the halfway point
of the conference season (rotation players only). Maidoh's
all-around game shows up here.
PLUS/MINUS
[table][tr][td]
Player Name [/td]
[td]Season[/td]
[td]Conference[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Chris Maidoh[/td]
[td]12[/td]
[td]32[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Sabry Philip[/td]
[td]-7[/td]
[td]5[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]TSM[/td]
[td]-13[/td]
[td]4[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Jared Frey[/td]
[td]-16[/td]
[td]18[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Toby Onyekonwu[/td]
[td]-26[/td]
[td]-6[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Keenan Fitzmorris[/td]
[td]-34[/td]
[td]-1[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Dean Noll[/td]
[td]-40[/td]
[td]1[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Aaron Clarke[/td]
[td]-61[/td]
[td]8[/td][/tr]
[tr]
[td]Andre Snoddy[/td]
[td]-101[/td]
[td]-20[/td][/tr]
[/table]
One thing that ought to stand out for us is our significant size
advantage. Beyond Sherry, they're are not very big, and it's
shown on the glass in conference play, where they've been
outrebounded in eight of 10 games. They're -3.4 for the CAA
slate, and if you take out the gaudy +23 rebounding margin
against A&T, that difference is -6.2. Not only do they lack
height but they lack width and, frankly, athleticism. And while
the kid Campbell fills both voids in short spells off the bench,
I'm curious how they'll play it in the closing minutes, if it's
close. To me, Maidoh and Snoddy should feast on the boards, and
Fitz on the block sounds like a good place to start offensively.
Elon is giving up more than 11 offensive rebounds a game to
their CAA opponents, so again, I expect our bigs to excel here.
They just seem small and skinny, which is tough to win with at
this level.
If there's anything that Elon has, it's shooting. We've been a
little better defending the three, and I think we can be
effective here with few guys who can take our guys off the
bounce, and I'm guessing little interest from the guards in
challenging our bigs even if they do. Mackinnon seems like a
natural fit for TSM. I do like the kid Higgins, who competes.
We should expect nothing less than a split, but we're bigger,
more athletic and deeper than both of these teams, so we
shouldn't be pleased if we only get the one. This feels like an
8-10 point win for me.
#Post#: 42691--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 24: at Elon, 2/8 7pm
By: Chairman of the Board Date: February 5, 2024, 8:33 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
5-5 isnt bad, i agree.
but this is what we all wanted right? a better conference.
gone are the days of winning 23 games, most of which were AEC.
#Post#: 42693--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 24: at Elon, 2/8 7pm
By: Accelerator Date: February 5, 2024, 10:47 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Looking at the +/- for the Northeastern game and Snoddy led the
way by far with the +15. That checks out since Northeastern
crack-ed our zone the moment he picked up his second foul and
had to sit. Noll with a +7 too. [EDIT: The censor blocks the
word "crack/ed"? Huh?]
We haven't been in top 200 in KenPom this late in the season
since 2019-20, and haven't at all since that Wagner game in
2021.
Drexel (107)

UNC Wilmington (112)
Charleston (134)
Delaware (140)
Towson (143)
Hofstra (146)
Monmouth (178)
Stony Brook (196)
Northeastern (249)
Campbell (311)

Elon (314)

William & Mary (325)
NC A&T (335)
Hampton (345)
After dragging the conference down last year it feels good to be
middle of the pack so that the CAA can justify our addition. But
woof, the 300s is full of newbies.
#Post#: 42694--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 24: at Elon, 2/8 7pm
By: OldSeawolf Date: February 6, 2024, 5:18 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Some really good stats from @Checkmate and @Accelerator - thanks
for that.
On the Conference +/-, I am amazed at some of the Conference
#'s:
- Maidoh being as high as he is (this is most amazing to me);
- Frey being as high as he is (I see him as a defensive
liability, and someone who has trouble creating for his shot);
- Fitz being almost even (is he that bad defensively, because
he's been a force on offense);
- Snoddy being as low as he is, given that he's our best
rebounder and hustle guy, IMO.
I'm still smarting over the Hofstra game, and how we barely
engineered a win over Northeastern, with 3 guys out. I'm not as
optimistic as you guys moving forward, but I'm still rooting!
#Post#: 42695--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 24: at Elon, 2/8 7pm
By: Checkmate Date: February 6, 2024, 8:42 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=OldSeawolf link=topic=1088.msg42694#msg42694
date=1707218337]
Some really good stats from @Checkmate and @Accelerator - thanks
for that.
On the Conference +/-, I am amazed at some of the Conference
#'s:
- Maidoh being as high as he is (this is most amazing to me);
- Frey being as high as he is (I see him as a defensive
liability, and someone who has trouble creating for his shot);
- Fitz being almost even (is he that bad defensively, because
he's been a force on offense);
- Snoddy being as low as he is, given that he's our best
rebounder and hustle guy, IMO.
I'm still smarting over the Hofstra game, and how we barely
engineered a win over Northeastern, with 3 guys out. I'm not as
optimistic as you guys moving forward, but I'm still rooting!
[/quote]
Maidoh's actually been no worse than a -2 in conference play.
Everybody else has at least one game at -9 or worse. Frey's
numbers are buoyed by his +16 against UNCW when he gave us 6 and
2 in 19 minutes, so it's deceiving. His +16 is actually the
non-Stonehill single-game high for the season.
Fitz was -15 at Delaware, -11 at Towson and -10 in the first
Hofstra loss. In the positive in every game since.
#Post#: 42696--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 24: at Elon, 2/8 7pm
By: Chairman of the Board Date: February 6, 2024, 10:51 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=OldSeawolf link=topic=1088.msg42694#msg42694
date=1707218337]
- Frey being as high as he is (I see him as a defensive
liability, and someone who has trouble creating for his shot);
[/quote]
i've noticed he shoots in transition, but when conference play
started, he's starting to pump fake on the perimeter, and
improve his shot. i think it works. (if that's considered
creating a shot, of course) i get your point that you really
mean generating offense.
#Post#: 42697--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 24: at Elon, 2/8 7pm
By: OldSeawolf Date: February 6, 2024, 10:58 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Chairman of the Board
link=topic=1088.msg42696#msg42696 date=1707238310]
[quote author=OldSeawolf link=topic=1088.msg42694#msg42694
date=1707218337]
- Frey being as high as he is (I see him as a defensive
liability, and someone who has trouble creating for his shot);
[/quote]
i've noticed he shoots in transition, but when conference play
started, he's starting to pump fake on the perimeter, and
improve his shot. i think it works. (if that's considered
creating a shot, of course) i get your point that you really
mean generating offense.
[/quote]
Re: Frey, the last 2 games (once each game), he's pump-faked
from behind the arc, dribbled once, and hit the 2. I wish he
would do more of that! My issue with him offensively, is that
he doesn't work hard enough to get open from 3, during their
half court set. Like you said, most of his 3 makes have been
during transition. I think it's his lack of foot speed to be
honest. I'd like to see do more of the pump fakes, because when
he's open, he's probably our best pure shooter.
#Post#: 42698--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 24: at Elon, 2/8 7pm
By: Knicksbu99 Date: February 6, 2024, 11:12 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Should rattle off some wins here. Sidenote the women are
crushing it not sure why they aren’t ranked Langford won’t be
here long Helibron gets credit for that hire do it for the men.
#Post#: 42699--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 24: at Elon, 2/8 7pm
By: Accelerator Date: February 6, 2024, 11:54 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Frey's midrange shot looks great, agreed. He had such a hot
stretch at the end of OOC but those games are looking like more
and more of an anomaly, though the potential is so high.
I've gotten a bit less disappointed about squeaking by injured
Northeastern because by that logic, the top 4 of the CAA should
also feel pretty demeaned that we scared them for 38 minutes,
I'm sure Charleston and Delaware fans can't believe they let
little Stony Brook go up by 15 on them and hang around until the
final minutes.
#Post#: 42700--------------------------------------------------
Re: Game 24: at Elon, 2/8 7pm
By: Chairman of the Board Date: February 6, 2024, 12:39 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=OldSeawolf link=topic=1088.msg42697#msg42697
date=1707238727]
[quote author=Chairman of the Board
link=topic=1088.msg42696#msg42696 date=1707238310]
[quote author=OldSeawolf link=topic=1088.msg42694#msg42694
date=1707218337]
- Frey being as high as he is (I see him as a defensive
liability, and someone who has trouble creating for his shot);
[/quote]
i've noticed he shoots in transition, but when conference play
started, he's starting to pump fake on the perimeter, and
improve his shot. i think it works. (if that's considered
creating a shot, of course) i get your point that you really
mean generating offense.
[/quote]
Re: Frey, the last 2 games (once each game), he's pump-faked
from behind the arc, dribbled once, and hit the 2. I wish he
would do more of that! My issue with him offensively, is that
he doesn't work hard enough to get open from 3, during their
half court set. Like you said, most of his 3 makes have been
during transition. I think it's his lack of foot speed to be
honest. I'd like to see do more of the pump fakes, because when
he's open, he's probably our best pure shooter.
[/quote]
exactly. we are watching the same games!
agree with all. im still more optimistic for this team than any
of the last 5 years. GO SB
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