DIR Return Create A Forum - Home
---------------------------------------------------------
Stony Brook Fans
HTML https://sbufan.createaforum.com
---------------------------------------------------------
*****************************************************
DIR Return to: SBU Men's Basketball
*****************************************************
#Post#: 40827--------------------------------------------------
Ten questions for 2023-24
By: Checkmate Date: October 22, 2023, 9:33 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
With a little more than two weeks until tipoff, some thoughts,
ramblings, tangents, questions for 2023-24.
1. Does TSM establish himself as an all-CAA first team kind of
player?
First off, boy is it good to have him back. I look forward to
seeing him creep toward and eventually eclipse 1,000 points for
his career. What a warrior he was while keeping the team from
being totally out of pocket last year. He's been fun to watch.
Working against TSM's first team candidacy is the fact that we
ought to have more than a few threats offensively, and that will
space the floor better. So whether he goes from being a 14 ppg
kid to a 18 ppg type may be out of his hands. Those who made the
first team – Estrada, Nelson, Timberlake, Williams, Bolon – were
standout talents for the most part. For Bolon, I'd say he was a
quality player who was the heartbeat of an elite team. Can TSM
get into that top five? Based on the preseason teams, I think he
can absolutely get there but a lot will depend on how the team
fares. Great player on an average player has a chance; best
player on a good team probably even more so.
2. Can we actually shoot?
You have to go all the way back to the 2015-16 team to find a
squad that finished in the top 150 nationwide in three-point
shooting. Of course, when you have a pro talent in the inside,
it opens things up outside. Last year? We ranked 324th at just
31% from deep, yet 44% of our scoring came from there. No bueno.
What I'm interested to see is whether our heavy minutes guys can
consistently knock down the outside shot, because on the
surface, we may struggle.
In their last full collegiate seasons, here's how our guys shot
it:
• Clarke: 31% on 5 attempts (2021-22 at Sacred Heart)
• Noll: 29% on 3.5 attempts (2021-22 at Cornell)
• TSM: 29% on 5.5 attempts (2022-23 at SB)
• Fitz: 28% on 1 attempt (2022-23 at SB)
• TO: 34% on 2.5 attempts (2022-23 at SB)
• Snoddy: 30% on 2 attempts (2022-23 at CCSU)
• Philip: 31% on 2.5 attempts (2022-23 at Navarro JC)
• Frederick: 25% on 3 attempts (2022-23 at Hutchinson CC)
Somebody do the math. What's that average out to? Actually,
don't tell me.
Granted, we have Frey, who we're told can shoot it (and
certainly didn't appear afraid to in last year's opener at UF).
And TSM's better than the above figure without question. But if
we resort to hoisting threes as we've seen before, I shudder to
think what the results will be. I do think we have some more
playmaking than normal with AC, Noll and TO, so perhaps that
leads to our guys getting more open looks. And we should have
some decent finishers. But I also don't see much of a post
presence offensively; the closest thing we had last year is now
playing for Charleston. How do we get our points?
3. Where does TO fit into the rotation, and is he pleased with
his role after last year's success?
Yes, it's a meritocracy, so you get the minutes that you earn.
But still, we are loaded with experience in the backcourt
between Noll, Clarke, TSM, Philip, Frey and Frederick. He proved
himself as a solid ballhandler last year, and his shooting came
along too (38% from three in conference play). If you had to
pick players who looked the part in the CAA, he was on the short
list, albeit on a short roster. If everybody's healthy and you
try to break down the minutes in the backcourt this year, it's
really hard to see him getting to 20.
I tried ...
Total guess on minutes:
• TSM 32
• Noll 28
• Fitzmorris 24
• Clarke 22
• Snoddy 20
• JFrey 20
• Philip 18
• Onyekonwu 12
• Maidoh 12
• Frederick 8
• Muratori 4
• Nahar, PFrey minimal
Can you get to 20 with TO? In general, how does Geno manage the
minutes with suddenly so many experienced guards?
4. Who is our primary ballhandler?
This is a spinoff of the last question. And probably a trick
question because we have this luxury/oddity of having a few
options to work, and we'd have even more if Space were healthy
and/or not redshirting. So there's Noll, Clarke and TO, and I
think TSM at times too. My sense is that Noll's going to rise to
the top of that list. He seems to be a combo guard type like the
kid Falko at Binghamton – just with a nose for the basket,
getting downhill and finishing at or near the rim, even if it's
a little funny looking at times, but can also find the open man.
Very cursory evaluation so we'll see. AC is more than capable
and maybe he's actually the guy, but I also love what TO did for
us last year.
5. How do we fare on the glass?
Last year was frustrating because we sorely lacked athletic
wings who could compete for rebounds. We had Fitz, Sarvan and
Muratori – who despite being 7 feet tall were all subpar on the
boards – to go with Policelli, who I think was a surprise to
just about everybody, maybe even the coaches and himself, in
finishing second in the conference in rebounding. So now we lose
Policelli and replace him with Snoddy, we bring in a physical
forward in Maidoh, and hopefully get something out of Frederick.
Is that enough to fill Policelli's void? And at least the size
of Sarvan?
I suspect that we'll be better collectively with everybody
healthy and the added girth with Maidoh and Snoddy in
particular. We're going to be much more athletic, and you add it
all up and I think we'll be all right.
6. Does the talent translate from junior college?
You think about the players who have come through the junior
college ranks – often with substantial numbers (Otchere the
human eraser! LES a walking double double!) – and it's really
hit or miss whether they amount to be these impact players at
the Division I level. The good news is that I think we have our
core of proven D-I players and we just need Philip and Frederick
to fill in on the edges. I do think/hope that they establish
themselves as plus perimeter defenders to go with TSM. There's
plenty of athleticism in the CAA, and last year we really lacked
guys who could stay with explosive wings/guards. They tried
though; I'll give them that.
Grading our JC transfers in the last 10 years:
A: Gueye
B: McGrew, Cornish, Iroegbu, JFR
C: Walker, Otchere, Saintel, Pettway
D: Diallo, Elliott-Sewell, Sarvan
F: White
I left out a few on the periphery. But where do Philip and
Frederick grade out? Imagine we got McGrew minutes/production
from one of them?
7. What will Muratori and Nahar give us?
Considering the above, I'm glad that we brought in
fortifications from the outside for the inside. Snoddy is a
great addition – with a year left to boot – and Maidoh is going
to be just what we needed alongside or in the place of Fitz.
Where does that leave us with Muratori and Nahar, who I feel
like enter the year as deep rotation guys at best? Muratori had
a few moments last year, but he played much smaller than 7-3/275
on the glass. I'm more hopeful for Nahar, who brings more
versatility to the mix. I'd love to see a noticeable jump from
him as one of our few "young guys." With each though, I suspect
a path to minutes will be very difficult with our veteran
lineup.
8a. Is this just a pro town?
8b. Are we just too busy?
You can't cook the numbers with wins and losses, but you can
with attendance. And last year was bad, even worse than what the
stats say. Sometimes we would look at each other five minutes
before tip and say "where the heck is everybody?" It was bad on
the scene and it was bad on TV. The band's energy masked the
lack thereof in the arena. I feel like I could read a thought
bubble above Heilbron's head when he was in the tunnel that read
"This is lame" or "This is not what I had in mind with the
conference change." Bad basketball and bad crowds.
If you're good, there's more chatter around campus, around town,
more email blasts, more social media excitement, more
everything. A tournament possibility/bid is obviously the holy
grail. Still, I feel like any growth that we see will be
incremental. Last year, the Statesman had a terrific story in
which it investigated the roots of their general apathy toward
sports (hats off if you're reading). They're all valid reasons.
As you know, the last monster season we had was 2015-16, and I'm
looking at that January 2 game against Columbia when we filled
90% of IFCU – more than 3,600 butts in seats supposedly. For
Columbia! Over winter break! The year before that, we're coming
off our win at Washington, it's the AE opener against UNH and,
lo and behold, we have over 3,200 fans there. So there's some
proof that it can happen, even if anecdotally.
But then you look at a program like Hofstra, which has won
20-plus games in the last four full seasons, and they can't even
fill half of a 5,000 seat arena a lot of the time.
The bottom line is that it may happen with success but it
definitely won't without it. In a new conference, with Hofstra
on the schedule, and with a pretty talented team, this is as
good a shot as we've had in a while to build some buzz. Let's
say we come out rolling. Huge year. Let's say we compete with
St. John's, maybe beat a Duquesne or Nebraska, and beat all the
teams we could/should beat. What's the attendance when
Charleston comes to town on that first Saturday night in
January? We have an opportunity.
More on this in question 10.
9. Can the CAA be a two-bid league again?
I believe the answer to this is no, but it's not impossible (I
think). Based on KenPom rankings, we have five teams in the top
150. Unfortunately, however, half of our league is 260 or worse,
with four programs at 300+ and a fifth (Monmouth) at 294. With
all the talk of quad this and quad that, it's so hard to build
your resume after January 1 when you just don't face that many
"good" opponents. Charleston faces three top 100 teams this
year, all the first month. If you look at the last four teams in
last year's tournament, here's how many top 100s they faced
(never mind the result):
Arizona State 19, Mississippi State 18, Pitt 16, Nevada 16
How do you compete with that in the CAA? How do you change that?
Bottom line, it will very very difficult to get an at-large.
Without numerous opportunities throughout the year to convince
the committee and move the needle, it will take at least one
elite win, and we're not talking about a two-point win at home
against Virginia Tech (although kudos to C of C for even getting
them to come there last year). Hofstra has to beat St. John's or
Duke. Wilmington has to beat Kentucky or Arkansas. And then have
a monster conference season. Charleston has to beat FAU. And if
we would have any chance to get an at-large (I know we're
reaching), we have to beat St. John's or ... OK, Michigan
State's not happening.
Unfortunately, that's just the reality of being a mid-major. If
you want to dance, you have to win in March.
Big picture: If the ship hasn't sailed yet, with a number of
ratings anchors in the CAA, will Charleston in fact look for
greener pastures in the A-10 as has been rumored? It would
certainly make sense as they're at 15 teams, and it'd be an
upgrade as nobody in the A-10 finished worse than 255 last year.
10. What's it going to take for Geno to keep his job?
This is the big one. Maybe a poll to gauge the group's thoughts?
I think about the AE where you have coaches who have some nice
seasons but never make tournaments. Good kids, they all
graduate, etc., but on the court, it's Vermont every single
year. Guys stick around: Gallagher, Duquette, Herrion, Barron at
Maine for a while, Dempsey was terrible at Binghamton for almost
an entire decade. And nobody notices because nobody goes to the
games.
Are we satisfied with Geno at 58-61? If we're right around .500
over his tenure by season's end, are we satisfied? Granted, he's
had to deal with a pandemic and unprecedented injuries during a
transition year to a new/better conference, as well as a
transition to the world of the transfer portal. Those are
definitely considerations – it's been a wild few years – but
also for two of those, everybody has had to deal with them. I'm
guessing just about all of us like Geno as a person and
ambassador of Stony Brook basketball. But if the program's going
to take it to another level, get the area excited and the arena
filled, get even better players to come, we have to win. Right
now, the fanfare is really minimal. I put some of that on the
athletic department. How does nobody in Stony Brook, Setauket,
Centereach, Lake Grove, etc., know that a Division I basketball
game is taking place right across the street? It's dumbfounding.
In his corner, hey, two top three finishes in the America East
in three years is pretty darn good. He's been all right in
conference tournaments, going 2-2, including last year's
pummeling of UNC A&T. Working against him ... some real squalls
between the lack of signature wins, guys picking up and leaving
inexplicably, the downturn in excitement around the program, and
what I would say has been ordinary-at-best recruitment of high
school talent.
I think I think that we're a good landing spot for an
up-and-coming or proven assistant. We are, right? Look at
Langford, who was this young, energetic associate HC at James
Madison and has proven to be an awesome add – very much worthy
of last month's extension. On the men's side, just
brainstorming, I'm guessing UNCW is pleased with Siddle. A guy
like Kim English cut his teeth at a high-major, did well at
George Mason and is now at Providence. Ingelsby spent an age at
Notre Dame and got Delaware to the tournament. I feel like we
should be in contention for those types of guys.
So how many wins is it? 18? 20? Let's say that Heilbron's set
the bar at 18 with a loss in the conference quarterfinals. That
means we go 17-14 in the regular season and split our CAA
tournament games to finish 18-15. And let's say we go 9-9 in
conference, which would be better than expected given our
preseason rank. That would then mean we'd have to go 8-5 in
non-conference. Is that a reasonable pathway? Is that good
enough for you? Given that this is the sport at Stony Brook, if
we're at or under .500, does he get shown the door?
Frankly I think this team's good enough to earn Geno an
extension. And it's as good as it's going to be unless we really
really recruit. We're going to lose, quite possibly, our top
four scorers after this season, leaving the team to Snoddy,
Frey, TO, Philip, Frederick, etc – a potentially scary scenario
given the hiked-up competition level. It's not unlike Pikiell's
timing in leaving for Rutgers. If we fell short yet again in
2016, would he have gotten the job? (I say it's likely). The
timing is right for Geno to get his payday too.
He'll be judged by wins and losses, but throughout the year,
we'll see if anything's changed. The offense, to me, has lacked
creativity, movement, explosiveness and shooting most of the
time. It's felt like sitting in traffic on the Cross Bronx. I
know this group likes assists. We finished dead last in the AE
in assists in 2019-20 and eighth in 2021-22. Miraculously, in
the COVID season, we were second. And then last year we were
ninth out of 14 teams in the CAA. This year, we have the horses
and the experience. It has to be better if we're going to be
successful.
When the dust settles, I think he's here next year. What do you
think?
#Post#: 40828--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ten questions for 2023-24
By: Chairman of the Board Date: October 23, 2023, 8:03 am
---------------------------------------------------------
firstly, amazing, this a great effort year after year. and if
it wasnt here, i'd be missing something.
1- yes. in my head TSM is already there and has been. last
season's injury looked bad and then he was just ok. a player
like that, that commands so much attention, will open up the
floor for others to get the ball.
2- since we can never, ever, ever shoot well, how to fix? I
aint the coach but the answer is- take higher % shots. that
means closer in, right personnel, right situation, use the shot
clock, and less traffic (which means move the ball to the open
man for the good look). but you all knew that already. pass
the ball!
3- that all assumes we stay healthy! i hope TO gets more time,
and he may have improved much over the summer. also remember
that we have a way of hyping players who turn out to be average.
so all the talk may just be... talk. that plays into 6.
4- perhaps by committee? not a bad thing. weve had many, many
injuries, and seemingly have no one top option. run 10 players
and have our guards shuttle in and out. that tires/confuses
defenses and gives different looks.
5- maybe the most important question. Frankie crushed it out
there, reinventing himself in the process. Sarvan's game
reminded me of Scott King and the post-Warney versions of
Sturdy.
6- see 3.
7- i'm hopeful on these two; because college bball starts so
early into the college career, we often seem jumps happen
starting in the soph year. PS i like our additions at the 4,
because with fitz and these two, we already have 5 covered
(arguably?) at least size-wise.
8- yes/yes.
9- doubtful. my understanding is- in any sport- when the late
season approaches and teams interplay more, that's where the
"bad" opponents in a midmajor weigh you down (even if you win!).
the system is designed to reward the top conferences and
sandbag even the average ones. it's the reason conference
runner-ups often dont make it- in any sport- even with an
outstanding year.
10- let's see if we can get through this season without losing
any players (injury, transfers) and then next spring the
transfer portal will run crazy again. it's year to year free
agency. i dunno. but on assists- i thought i saw more ball
movement early last season so that's good. i have no idea on
contracts and who's available and what the dept wants to do.
#Post#: 40836--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ten questions for 2023-24
By: Knicksbu99 Date: October 24, 2023, 12:10 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Hope Nahhar takes a jump i like his game and he is young.
Charleston is clearly most talented team on paper but tons of
new pieces will have to mesh. I expect a top 6 finish from us
and possibly a non con upset. I do think Geno will have to be in
top 5 mix to return simply because the program could use a hard
reset new energy etc.
#Post#: 40841--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ten questions for 2023-24
By: steveoh Date: October 24, 2023, 5:37 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
As always, Checkmate, this is incredible. Thank you.
I think there's something to be learned from the Knicks. Did you
know that they were third in Offensive Efficiency last year? All
I did last year was watch them miss threes and twos - and I'm
right! They were in the bottom third in shooting in both
categories. And they barely moved the ball.
So how did they do it?
1. They shot a ton of threes. Top five in the NBA in attempts.
2. They crashed the boards. Top five in the NBA in offensive
rebounding.
3. The converted on second chance points. Top five there too.
4. They limited turnovers. Top five.
So they basically limited their turnovers by taking the first
open look from three, then crashing the boards and making their
opponents pay. All of those things are sustainable. I wouldn't
recommend it, but it clearly works when you don't have the
personnel to be accurate.
I can see the Seawolves following the same blueprint.
#Post#: 40941--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ten questions for 2023-24
By: sbufan Date: November 2, 2023, 11:19 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Awesome write up, Checkmate.
I'm surprised by how mediocre Noll and Clarke's historic 3pt fg
pct is. In my mind they we're both 35%+ from 3. My hope is that
TSM has a 1st team all conference season and the attention he
garners leads to better shooting from everyone else.
My question is can Fitz take another step this year? He only had
31 minutes of college game time before last year. To be honest,
I didn't watch the team much last year, but I'll really like
this team if he can give us an efficient 12 pts and 7 rbs a
night.
#Post#: 40942--------------------------------------------------
Re: Ten questions for 2023-24
By: Chairman of the Board Date: November 2, 2023, 11:47 am
---------------------------------------------------------
i actually thought fitz was great last year. maybe i missed a
game where the critics watched.
*****************************************************