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#Post#: 15933--------------------------------------------------
Stena Line Announces 950 Layoffs, Equinor Orders Longer Shifts &
amp; Carnival Warning of Loss
By: AGelbert Date: March 17, 2020, 1:40 pm
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[img
width=150]
HTML http://renewablerevolution.createaforum.com/gallery/renewablerevolution/3-170218174357.png[/img]
[center]Stena Line Announces 950 Layoffs Due to Coronavirus
Impact[/center]
By Reuters on Mar 16, 2020 05:39 pm
[center][img
width=640]
HTML https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/QVTLjVmUWd0ZdHDGwO1kcDeYCO8LWyywTtcIsPdNlaAxbVW40v6BNgqpYC8H1VdMGUTMuXh7Yf-VYsWHrQf_JHXoMouqCEfgjG43lQbZ3lJypviqLzFpVXhwrqLc=s0-d-e1-ft#http://gcaptain.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/1024px-Stena_Adventurer.jpg[/img][/center]
European ferry operator Stena Line has announced plans to layoff
950 employees due to travel restrictions imposed amid the
coronavirus pandemic. The Swedish-based company announced
Monday it has seen a substantial effect on its passenger
operations as a result of the virus, especially in the
Scandinavia region where passenger traffic to Sweden, Denmark,
Poland, […] Read full story...
HTML https://gcaptain.com/stena-line-to-layoff-950-due-to-coronavirus-impact/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Gcaptain+%28gCaptain.com%29&goal=0_f50174ef03-2aed2deeae-169600093&mc_cid=2aed2deeae&mc_eid=1855a0727e
[center]Equinor Orders Longer Shifts for Offshore Staff Due to
Coronavirus[/center]
By Reuters on Mar 16, 2020 12:56 pm
[center][img
width=640]
HTML https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/9Sq7QWZWFeb2VinFje-hGrU7aKjnL0jsHeGfUIZLfm_H5vd6o6jcgOFynptDYGwwCDSRcskplsxu0VYhjOaG858OQYF9LpEZF9uklFrvmiLYMZ1w9iMLB5SismxUkcuivM9eQA0WkUopYU1V0xUaCKtERmBKrJeOKH3lZRL5Jt1Aa6YulbVWWDf2h-myQ4bhQcE6PGyar8EW=s0-d-e1-ft#http://gcaptain.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/2020-03-12T154127Z_714051018_RC2FIF9S3VVK_RTRMADP_3_HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-BRITAIN-OIL.jpg[/img][/center]
By Nerijus Adomaitis OSLO, March 16 (Reuters) – Equinor will
extend its employees’ shifts at offshore platforms to 21 days
from 14 days to reduce the risk of coronavirus spread, the oil
company said on Monday, as oil and gas production offshore
Norway continued as normal. Equinor recorded the world’s first
coronavirus case on an offshore installation at its
non-producing Martin […] Read full story...
HTML https://gcaptain.com/equinor-orders-longer-shifts-for-offshore-staff-due-to-coronavirus/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Gcaptain+%28gCaptain.com%29&goal=0_f50174ef03-2aed2deeae-169600093&mc_cid=2aed2deeae&mc_eid=1855a0727e
[center]Warning of Loss, Carnival Moves to Shore Up
Liquidity[/center]
By Bloomberg on Mar 16, 2020 11:15 am
[center][img
width=640]
HTML https://ci4.googleusercontent.com/proxy/TxAy066rBHGkLH43XlJM1TX70rbV7zjEDPJGYR_yMWAyMZ45PLwqivZ-fiBld86zvlpLoqXn0idH52JV3EY_ztbN2Z2pDTNWFg8URdcLT2WM4zo7Q0qShWsIWS0=s0-d-e1-ft#http://gcaptain.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/shutterstock_129780266.jpg[/img][/center]
[center]Carnival cruise shipBy Jonathan Levin
(Bloomberg)[/center]
Carnival Corp., the largest player in a cruise industry reeling
from the effects of the coronavirus, said it expects a loss this
fiscal year and is taking steps to improve liquidity. The
efforts include cutting investments and expenses and looking for
additional financing, Carnival said in a statement Monday. The
company […] Read full story...
HTML https://gcaptain.com/warning-of-loss-carnival-moves-to-shore-up-liquidity/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Gcaptain+%28gCaptain.com%29&goal=0_f50174ef03-2aed2deeae-169600093&mc_cid=2aed2deeae&mc_eid=1855a0727e
[center]Surging Demand to Move Crude Oil Sends Smaller Tanker
Rates Soaring[/center]
By Reuters on Mar 16, 2020 11:02 am
[center][img
width=640]
HTML https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/_0yQozvsbPYnNE_uQqwM5H31-VT4wRtOQY9EC9DTWQVO4zoMJEEL-EIzj5bSCIcduW54oFiI97IuawS_GLAJMXTEIEKlLKFON6TeiTnmaXhZYnmWqK6Po0-ciWk=s0-d-e1-ft#http://gcaptain.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/shutterstock_434673667.jpg[/img][/center]
[center]wave breaking over tanker By Roslan Khasawneh [/center]
SINGAPORE, March 16 (Reuters) – A surge in demand to ship the
flood of crude oil unleashed by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC peers
is sending freight rates surging and forcing buyers to seek out
space on smaller tankers after the largest ones have been booked
out, shipping sources said. Freight charges to […] Read full
story...
HTML https://gcaptain.com/surging-demand-to-move-crude-oil-sends-smaller-tanker-rates-soaring/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Gcaptain+%28gCaptain.com%29&goal=0_f50174ef03-2aed2deeae-169600093&mc_cid=2aed2deeae&mc_eid=1855a0727e
#Post#: 15934--------------------------------------------------
👨‍🔬 Learn WHY there will be NO VACCINE for
COVID-19 ANY TIME SOON.
By: AGelbert Date: March 17, 2020, 7:47 pm
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Agelbert NOTE: After Jamarl's (first 20 minutes) excellent rant
on the admirable principled ideology of Bernie supporters, there
is a MUST HEAR discussion of COVID-19 by an
👨‍🔬 expert on corona viruses. The bottom
line is that there will be NO VACCINE for COVID-19 ANY TIME
SOON. WHY? It turns out that this clever little coronacritter
makes RNA transcribing coding mistakes two out of three times it
does its thing after invading a cell. This makes life VERY
DIFFICULT for a [img
width=30]
HTML https://renewablerevolution.createaforum.com/gallery/renewablerevolution/2/3-300919160022-2281531.png[/img]<br
/>attacker vaccine trying to identify the COVID-19 corona critte
r
in order to destroy it [img
width=30]
HTML http://renewablerevolution.createaforum.com/gallery/renewablerevolution/2/3-231218145827.png[/img].<br
/>There IS, however, a great tool for therapy involving plasma
that will enable infected people to survive the virus. Don't
miss that interview. And please, [img
width=20]
HTML https://renewablerevolution.createaforum.com/gallery/renewablerevolution/2/3-300919160023-2284203.png[/img]<br
/>pass it on to concerned people everywhere.
[center]Bernie Supporters Won't & Shouldn't Back Biden. Should
Democratic Primaries Be Postponed? Elections![/center]
2,311 views•Streamed live 5 hours ago
[center]
HTML https://youtu.be/CiNi_qTp-EM[/center]
Jamarl Thomas
27.9K subscribers
Bernie Supporters Won't & Shouldn't Back Biden. Should
Democratic Primaries Be Postponed? Elections!
HTML https://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...
Patreon:
HTML https://www.patreon.com/theprogressiv...
PayPal:
HTML http://paypal.me/jamarlthomas
Facebook:
HTML https://www.facebook.com/groups/29196...
Twitter:
HTML https://twitter.com/theProgSoapbox
T-shirts & Merchandise:
HTML https://shop.spreadshirt.com/theprogs...
For business opportunities, please email jamarlbiz@gmail.com
or
Jamarl Thomas
PO Box 15682
Richmond, Va 23227
Category News & Politics
#Post#: 15937--------------------------------------------------
Re: New Pandemic?
By: Surly1 Date: March 18, 2020, 4:11 am
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Best thing I have read to date about the pandemic and social
distancing. Stay the Fuck Home!
The Sober Math Everyone Must Understand about the Pandemic
HTML https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993
Jason S Warner
[img
width=640]
HTML https://miro.medium.com/max/2048/0*fiXG-RwZfGtErF18.jpeg[/img]
Photo Credit: Steve R Giss, MD, FACS.
This post is too long. It takes 19 minutes to read according to
Medium. It has been viewed 1.9M times in less than 24 hours. You
should read it, too.
I wrote this post on Facebook on Thursday Night, March 12th
2020. Since I wrote it, the post been shared 160k times and I’ve
been asked to repost it here so people can share on Twitter and
other platforms. Please distribute freely.
It’s reposted in its entirety here, with no edits.
HTML https://www.facebook.com/jason.scott.warner/posts/10163742243430144
The Long Facebook Post:
This is a long post addressing two underlying issues with the
current response to the pandemic that leave me concerned. It’s
the longest post I’ve ever written.
For those of you not taking action, or believing the pandemic to
be “over hyped”, you can make fun of me as much as you want now
or when this is over. You can make me the subject of memes and
post it everywhere. I will pose for the picture. I am not trying
to convince you, but I do feel compelled to share information
that I deem critical to all of us, which is why I am posting
this at all.
WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE 5 MINUTES TO READ AND CONSIDER THE
INFORMATION I AM SHARING:
As of 3/15/20 at 9 am PST this post has been shared over 50k
times since it was posted 2 days ago. So a lot of people find
value in the post and although it’s a long read, I believe you
will find this information valuable too.
For those of you who don’t know me well, I am analytical and
measured. I don’t freak out nor do I respond emotionally. I also
don’t post a bunch of bullshit or political or controversial
stuff on Facebook. I founded and am CEO of a successful software
company that provides SaaS based data, analytics, and dashboards
to recruiting departments at companies we all know. As you would
expect, I am data driven and fact based. Before founding my
company I held executive roles leading very large recruiting
teams at some of the world’s fastest growing companies such as
Starbucks and Google. At Google I was fortunate enough to report
to Sheryl Sandberg before she took the Facebook COO role. I was
a Chemical Engineering major in college and have a business
degree from a top undergraduate business school. I am not one
for hyperbole or histrionics. My bullshit factor is close to
zero.
I share all this personal information only to help solidify that
this post may be worth reading and sharing with others. I would
encourage you to forward or share this post at your discretion.
Many people do not understand what is happening with the
pandemic to the degree required which is why I took the time to
write this and share this on Facebook.
Now that I’ve gotten the introduction out of the way, here are
two issues I want to bring to everyone’s attention.
ISSUE ONE: SOCIAL NORMS ARE POWERFUL MOTIVATORS AND GETTING IN
THE WAY OF PEOPLE TAKING THE RIGHT STEPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
PANDEMIC:
One of the current problems with addressing the pandemic is the
social pressures of taking action today. It’s awkward, and feels
like an over-reaction. The reason it feels like an overreaction
is that most people OVERWEIGHT the currently reported cases and
inherently UNDERWEIGHT the mathematics of how the virus is
spreading and what will happen in about 30 days time. This is
because our brains tend to think linearly as opposed to
logarithmically. It’s the same reason many people don’t save for
retirement or understand compound interest.
To create a new social norm, human beings like to see behavior
modeled. This serves as a signal that says, “oh, someone else is
doing it so I should do it also.”
SO HERE IS A SOCIAL BENCHMARK FOR REFERENCE — THIS IS WHAT I’VE
DONE FOR MY FAMILY TO DATE:
I have already isolated my family. We have canceled EVERYTHING.
We have canceled previously scheduled doctor visits. Social get
togethers. No play dates. Normal routine meetings. Everything
has been canceled. It’s difficult and socially awkward. Some of
you think I’m crazy, but I’m doing it not because I am afraid,
but because I am good at math (more on that in part 2). I had to
have my 16 year old daughter quit her job coaching junior
gymnasts at the local gym, with one day’s notice and also tell
my kids they can’t attend youth group at church. Both of those
were tough discussions. I told a very close friend he shouldn’t
stay at my house this weekend even though he was planning to and
had booked his flight from the Bay Area. I canceled another dear
friend’s visit for later this month to go snowboarding on Mt
Bachelor.
We are not eating out. Our kids are already doing online school
so we don’t have to make changes there. I would not send my kids
to school even if they were in public or private school. We have
eliminated all non-essential contact with other people. We will
only venture out to grocery shop when required. We will still go
outside to parks, go mountain biking, hiking, and recreate to
keep ourselves sane and do other things as a family, just not
with other people. We have stocked up on food and have a supply
for ~2 months. We have stocked up on other goods that if
depleted would create hardship, like medicines and feminine
hygiene products. We have planned for shortages of essential
items.
THE REASON I HAVE CHOSEN THIS ROUTE FOR MY FAMILY IS MULTI
FACETED:
1. Although my family is considered low risk (I’m 49 in good
health, Angi is 46 and in good health, and our kids are 14 and
16), we must assume that the healthcare system cannot help us,
because the hospitals will become overwhelmed very quickly. Most
American hospitals will become overwhelmed in approximately 30
days unless something changes. More on this in part 2 below. So
although we are in great health and unlikely to become gravely
ill, the risk is greater if you do not have access to the
medical care that you need. This is something for everyone to
consider. As a society we are accustomed to having access to the
best medical care available. Our medical system will be
overwhelmed unless we practice social distancing at scale. That
said, the medical teams in Italy are seeing an alarming number
of cases from people in their 40s and 50s. Triage tents are
already going up in the parking lots at many hospitals close to
the epicenters in the United States.
2. It’s not a matter of if social distancing will take place,
it’s a matter of when. This is because social distancing is the
only way to stop the virus today.
As I will explain in part 2 below, starting now is FAR more
effective than starting even 2 days from now or tomorrow. This
has been proven by Italy and China (and soon to be France and
other European countries who have been slow to respond.)
[updated as of 3/14 France is now on lockdown mandated by the
government]. Wuhan went on lockdown after roughly 400 cases were
identified (and they had access to testing that America has
systematically failed to do well to date). The US already has
more than 4 times this number of known infected cases as Wuhan
did when it was shut down, and our citizens are far more mobile
and therefore spreading the virus more broadly when compared to
Wuhan. Yet our response is tepid at best.
If hand washing and “being smart” were sufficient Italy would
not be in crisis. So I pray the draconian measures are coming
from our government, because they are required to stop the
spread of the virus. It’s better to start sooner than later as
the cost is actually far greater if we wait. I pray they close
all schools and non-essential services the way that Italy and
China have done.
3. Spreading the virus puts those in the high-risk category at
much greater risk. This is the moral argument. It’s a strong
argument because there are only two ways, as of today, that the
virus can be stopped: let it run its course and infect 100s of
millions of people, or social distancing. There is no other way
today. If you don’t practice social distancing, people
downstream from you that you transmit the virus to will die, and
many will suffer.
4. The risk of infection is increasing exponentially, because
the quantity of infected people, most who will not show
symptoms, is doubling every three days. So the longer you wait
to self-isolate, the greater the chance of you or someone you
love becoming infected and then you infecting others because
more of the population is becoming infected. There are twice as
many infected people today as there was on Tuesday.
5. The virus is already in your town. It’s everywhere. Cases are
typically only discovered when someone gets sick enough to seek
medical attention. This is important as it typically takes ~5
days to START showing ANY symptoms. Here’s the math: For every
known case there are approximately 50 unknown cases. This is
because if I become sick, I infect several people today, and
they infect a few people each tomorrow (as do I), and the total
count of infected people doubles every 3 days until I get so
sick I get hospitalized or get tested and become a “known case”.
But in the time it takes me to figure out I am sick 50 others
downline from me now have the virus. So every third day the
infection rate doubles until I get so sick that I realize I have
the virus an am hospitalized or otherwise tested. Harvard and
Massachusetts General Hospital estimate that there are 50x more
infections than known infections as reported (citation below).
The implication of this is that the virus is already
“everywhere” and spreading regardless if your city has zero, few
or many reported cases. So instead of the 1573 reported known
cases today there are likely 78,650 cases, at least, in the
United States. Which will double to 157,300 by this Sunday. And
this will double to 314,600 cases by this coming Wednesday. So
in less than 1 week the number of total infected in the United
States will quadruple. This is the nature of exponential math.
It’s actually unfortunate that we are publishing the figures for
known cases as it diverts attention away from more important
numbers (like the range of estimated actual cases). [Update as
of 3/15/20 — I’ve been sent more research that may add clarity
to the ACTUAL cases vs CONFIRMED cases and will update this post
with any conclusions]
6. Some people cannot, or will not, practice social distancing
for a variety of reasons and will continue to spread the virus
to many people. So everyone else must start today.
The reasons above are why I have begun to practice social
distancing. It’s not easy. But you should do it too.
The hospitals will be at capacity and there are not enough
ventilators. You will hear a lot about this issue in the coming
few weeks… the shortage of ventilators.
ISSUE TWO: MANY PEOPLE ARE FOCUSED ON THE WRONG NUMBERS:
Yes, the virus only kills a small percentage of those afflicted.
Yes, the flu kills 10s of thousands of people annually. Yes, 80%
of people will experience lightweight symptoms with COVID19. Yes
the mortality rate of COVID19 is relatively low (1–2%). All of
this true, but is immaterial. They are the wrong numbers to
focus on…
The nature of exponential math is that the infection rates start
slowly, and then goes off like a bomb and overwhelms the
hospitals. You will understand this math clearly in the next
section if you do the short math exercise. Evergreen hospital in
Seattle is already in triage. I have heard credible reports from
people on the ground that they are already becoming overwhelmed.
And the bomb won’t really go off for a few more days. Probably
by Wednesday, March 18th (next week). In just a few days from
now we will hear grave reports from Seattle hospitals. [update
as of 3/15/20 — see the comments section below for an update
from a staff member at Evergreen Hospital in Kirkland, WA]
You should assume the virus is everywhere at this point, even if
you have no confirmed cases in your area.
YOU SHOULD DO THIS SIMPLE 2 MINUTE MATH EXERCISE (NO REALLY TAKE
TWO MINUTES AND DO IT):
To further understand exponential growth, take the number of
confirmed cases in your area and multiply by 10 (or 50 if you
believe Harvard and Massachusetts General estimations) to
account for the cases that are not yet confirmed. If you have no
confirmed cases choose a small number. I’d suggest 10 cases in
your city, if no cases are yet reported. But you can use
whatever number you like. This number of infected people doubles
every ~3 days as the infection spreads. So literally take your
number, and multiply by 2. Then do it again. Then do it again.
Then do it again. Do this multiplication exercise 10 times in
total.
2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x (the number of estimated
infections in your city today (not just the reported cases)).
This result is the estimate for the actual cases in your area 30
days from now. The math will take 30 seconds to complete with a
calculator and it’s worth doing the math to see how it grows.
This end number is the number of cases in your city 30 days from
today if a large percentage of the population do not practice
social distancing.
2 to the 10th power is 1024. When something doubles 10 times,
it’s the same as multiplying by 1024. The infection rate of the
virus doubles every 3 days. In thirty days there will be 1,024
times the number of infected people in your area as there is
today if your community does not immediately put social
distancing into practice. One thousand and twenty four times as
many infected people as there is today, in just 30 days.
Next, divide the final number (the scary big one) you just
calculated by the current population of your city and you will
be able to get the percentage of people THAT YOU KNOW PERSONALLY
who will be infected 30 days from now.
THIS PART IS IMPORTANT: Next take 15% (multiply by 0.15) of that
final 30 day number of total infected people (the number you
calculated by multiplying by 2 ten times). This will provide an
estimate of the serious cases which will require
hospitalization, and compare it to the number of beds and
ventilators available at your local hospital. Google the “number
of beds” and the name of your local hospital now. It takes 2
seconds and the number of beds is easy to find. 65% of beds are
already occupied by patients unrelated to the coronavirus. St
Charles in Bend, Oregon where I live, has 226 beds and the town
is roughly 100,000 people. Most hospitals have on average, 40 or
fewer ventilators. 5% of patients require ICU treatment. There
are very few ICU beds compared to regular beds in hospitals.
There are very few negative pressure areas in any hospital to
deal with the containment of airborne diseases.
These numbers you just calculated are the Big Problem: Too many
patients, not enough beds, and a serious shortage of ventilators
(the biggest problem) if we don’t immediately begin social
distancing. More on this biggest problem related to the
insufficient quantity of ventilators is below.
COUNTRIES AND CITIES THAT GET OVERWHELMED WILL HAVE A MUCH
GREATER MORTALITY RATE BECAUSE THEY WON’T BE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY
PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE.
And by medical care I mean not just coronavirus patients. Your
son or daughter that needs acute care surgery this May for his
badly broken leg will be attended to by an orthopedic doctor
that has been working at maximum capacity and working 18 hour
shifts for 7 days every week for 6 weeks because it was required
to care for all the coronavirus patients at her hospital. Or the
orthopedic surgeon will be sick with the virus and your son or
daughter will be operated on in a tent in the hospital parking
lot by a non-expert or a member of the National Guard. Your
elderly Mom that has diabetes and goes into acute distress next
month may not receive ANY medical care because the doctors are
consumed and have to prioritize patients based on triage
guidelines based on success rate probabilities. Your sibling’s
family that are all injured in a terrible car crash in June will
have diminished care. If one of them needs a ventilator there
will be none available because all of them will be in use by
critical coronavirus patients. Your young friend with cancer and
a compromised immune system from treatment will succumb even
though the cancer was curable and the treatment was working,
because their body was too fragile to combat the coronavirus due
to the chemotherapy and they couldn’t receive the customized,
acute care required due to the hospital being overwhelmed. All
of the above is currently happening in Italy, who had the same
number of infections we have today just 2 weeks ago. You must
start social distancing today.
The count of actual virus infections doubles every ~3 days. The
news and government agencies are lagging in their response. So
we hear that the US only has 1573 cases today (3/12/20) [update
as of 3/15/20: 3115 confirmed cases), ( see
HTML https://www.worldometers.inf
o/coronavirus/) and it doesn’t seem
like a lot. It would be better to report the estimated actual
cases, since reported cases don’t tell us much. However, we know
from China that the actual number of cases are at least an order
of magnitude greater than the reported cases, because people get
infected and do not display symptoms. In math, an “order of
magnitude” means ten times difference, or put another way, a
factor of 10. 100 is 10 times greater than 10, so it’s an order
of magnitude greater.
Harvard Medical School / Massachusetts General Hospital just
released their estimate (recording is here:
HTML https://externalmediasite.partners.org/…/53a4003de5ab4b4da5…)<br
/>that the actual cases are 50x greater than the reported cases.
So we likely have 75,000 cases in the United States already. The
number of reported cases is not that important.
But let’s assume the current number of cases is only 10,000
ACTUAL cases in the United States just to be conservative and
model out what will happen:
If we don’t stop the virus from spreading, in 30 days we will
have 2 to the 10th power more cases of infected people because
the infection count doubles every 3 days (the virus doubles
every 3 days and there are 10, 3 day periods in 30 days).
This math is familiar if you did the exercise above. If not, go
up and do the math exercise. The math: 2 to the 10th power means
1,024 times as many cases as we have today (2 times 2 repeated
10 times).
This number is a catastrophically big problem for all of us: We
will have 10 million+ actual cases (10,000 actual cases today x
1,024) in the United States in just 30 days’ time if we continue
without extreme social distancing. 10 million people with the
virus. And it will keep doubling every 3 days unless we practice
social distancing.
15% of cases require significant medical attention, which means
that 1.5 million people will require significant medical
attention if 10 million people get infected (15% of 10 Million
total infections = 1.5 million people requiring
hospitalization).
1.5 million hospitalizations is way more than we have beds for
at hospitals in the United States. And 65% of all beds are
already occupied in our hospitals. But many patients (5%) with
the virus need ICU beds, not just any old hospital bed. Only
about 10% of hospital beds are considered intensive care beds.
So we will have a huge bed shortage, but that is not the biggest
problem, as we can erect temporary ICU shelters and bring in
more temporary beds, as Italy has already done, and California
and Washington hospitals have already done. Evergreen Hospital
in Seattle has already erected temporary triage tents in the
parking lot as of 3/13/20. All regular beds are full at
Evergreen Hospital as of yesterday.
Once the government of China, Norway, and Italy came to
understand this math, they reacted accordingly and shut
EVERYTHING down. [update as of 3/15/20 now France has done the
same lockdown]. Extreme social distancing is the only response
available to stop the virus today. The United States is not
responding well nor are other countries like the UK. Countries
that do not respond well will pay a much larger, catastrophic
price.
But hospital beds are not the big problem. The lack of
ventilators is the big problem. Most estimates peg the
ventilators in the United States at roughly 100,000 to 150,000
units. See the study from last month:
HTML http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/…/200214-VentilatorA…
The primary and most serious comorbid (comorbid is a medical
term that means co-existing or happening at the same time)
condition brought on by the Coronavirus is something called
bilateral interstitial pneumonia which requires ventilators for
treatment of seriously ill patients. So if 1.5M people of the 10
million infected 30 days from now require hospital care (15% of
the 10M estimated total infections), 1.3M may not get the care
that they need because we don’t have enough ventilators, beds,
and ICU beds in the United States. And remember, this is only if
ALL OF US EFFECTIVELY start social distancing by April 11th (30
days from today). This increases the mortality rate
significantly.
BUT IF WE START EXTREME SOCIAL DISTANCING BY MARCH 23 (12 days
from original writing), WE AVOID OVER 1.4 MILLION PEOPLE GETTING
CRITICALLY ILL AND OVERWHELMING THE HOSPITALS:
If everyone takes extreme measures to social distance, and the
United States can dramatically reduce the spread of the virus 12
days from now, the math is very different, as the exponential
growth will only be 2 to the 4th power (12 days divided by the
doubling rate of every 3 days equals the exponent of 4):
2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16
So instead of 10 Million cases in the United States if we wait
30 days, if we act 18 days sooner, we will have only 160,000
cases (16 times the estimated 10,000 actual cases as of today),
of which 15% are likely to require hospitalization. This is
24,000 critical patients (a huge difference compared to 1.5
million acute patients). The difference between taking extreme
measures now, versus waiting even a few days, is very large due
to how exponents work in math.
THE OUTCOME IS EVEN BETTER IF WE TAKE ACTION IN THE NEXT 6 DAYS:
If the vast majority of the population self isolates and
implements social distancing in only 6 days from now the
exponential math is 2 to the 2nd power (6 days divided by the 3
days it takes the virus to double means the exponent is only 2).
In math this is “two squared”.
2 x 2 = 4
Multiplied by the estimated 10,000 ACTUAL cases as of today
(3/12/20) that means only 40,000 total cases will develop, 15%
of which may be critical which is 6,000 critical patients.
This is why you should share this post broadly. If people begin
social distancing in the next 6 days it will greatly reduce the
impact on all of us. It’s why they say a “post goes viral”.
SOCIAL DISTANCING WILL REDUCE THE FINANCIAL IMPACT TO YOU AND
YOUR FAMILY:
Finally, the longer everyone waits to practice significant
social distancing the greater the economic hardship will be on
all of us. Lost jobs. Mortgage defaults. Closed businesses.
Bankruptcies. All will be minimized if you start social
distancing today.
Some of the reasons the economic impacts will be reduced are
worth mentioning: If we stop the virus now the overall duration
of the outbreak will be far shorter. The stock market will
normalize more quickly and recover more quickly. Businesses and
people will be able to survive a shorter duration outbreak vs a
longer duration outbreak. More companies will avoid bankruptcy
if we begin to practice social distancing now.
This is a big financial reason to begin social distancing if you
are employed by any company: if companies see that the virus is
being slowed, they will be less likely to conduct layoffs. You
will be more likely to be laid off or experience a job-related
event if we don’t practice social distancing immediately. As an
HR executive, I’ve been involved in many, many layoffs. It’s the
last thing companies want to do. But if they see that the
pandemic will be shorter lived vs long and drawn out, they are
less likely to make the permanent decision of laying off staff.
The overall economic impact that hits your bank account will be
greater if you wait or you don’t practice social distancing.
This is why Norway acted now, because it’s less economic impact
to take drastic measures early than to do them later, and it
saves a lot of lives and suffering by doing so. And Norway has
only one confirmed death as of this writing.
Many people have suggested they want to support local
restaurants and other businesses, who have seen sales drop by
50–90%. Stopping by and visiting them won’t save them. What will
save them is social distancing and what you do after the
pandemic is over. If you are concerned, call them and buy a gift
certificate over the phone.
START TODAY. I CAN’T STRESS THIS ENOUGH. YOU MUST START TODAY.
Finally, the article that I posted yesterday written by Tomas
Pueyo has been read 30M times in the last few days and has been
updated with new information. It’s worth reading again.
Here’s that link:
HTML https://medium.com/…/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-d…
Other up to date data I frequently consult regarding the
pandemic is here:
HTML https://www.worldometers.inf
o/coronavirus/
I hope this is helpful and useful. My brain focuses on the math
and I try and be fact based in my analysis and interpretation of
how I should respond.
THERE IS MORE INFORMATION IN THE COMMENTS ON THE FACEBOOK POST
WORTH READING AND I WILL BE UPDATING THAT POST, AND THE
COMMENTS, WITH MORE INFORMATION, (AS OPPOSED TO CREATING NEW
POSTS).
MY FINAL PARTING THOUGHT: Please share or forward this post at
your discretion. If everyone shares this post and two of your
friends share this post and so on, we use the power of
exponential math to work in our favor, which seems appropriate
given the virus is using that same exponential math against us.
HOW YOU CAN REALLY HELP: If you know people who have large
numbers of followers, or people in the media, please leverage
your personal relationship with them and ask them to amplify
this post by sharing it.
It would be useful to get the post on Twitter and LinkedIn. If
you know people in government this fact-based post may help
inform them to make the best decisions. I am not active on
Twitter.
It’s time for us humans to go on the offensive against the
virus. We must fight back.
There is only one way to do so: Social Distancing.
Do it today.
NOTE: Anyone, including the media, is free to use this post, any
related content, in all or in part, for any purpose, in any
format, with no attribution required. Please direct message me
if you have other ideas for how to raise awareness.
Finally, I can no longer keep up with friend requests given how
much this post has been shared. To receive updates or follow me,
please use the “Follow” button on Facebook. My page Facebook
page is here, or follow me here on Medium (or both!).
My facebook page:
HTML https://www.facebook.com/jason.scott.warner
If anyone wants to translate this into any other language please
do so and contact me and I’ll repost it in that language.
3/16/20: I am preparing a second post, now that 4 days have gone
by since the first post. To receive it please follow me on FB. I
can not keep up with the friend requests.
#Post#: 15939--------------------------------------------------
We’re not going back to normal
By: Surly1 Date: March 18, 2020, 6:01 am
---------------------------------------------------------
We’re not going back to normal
HTML https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/?utm_source=digg&fbclid=IwAR2w5Q9NrkxZPuFihFl9DGpe5M7MyXkk13srzZTjGFUW_bUIkF5ti62Lee8
Social distancing is here to stay for much more than a few
weeks. It will upend our way of life, in some ways forever.
[img
width=640]
HTML https://cdn.technologyreview.com/i/images/gettyimages-94502198.jpg?sw=2544&cx=0&cy=154&cw=3000&ch=1688[/img]
by Gideon Lichfield
Mar 17, 2020
[html]<p><span>To stop coronavirus we will need to radically
change almost everything we do: how we work, exercise,
socialize, shop, manage our health, educate our kids, take care
of family members.</span></p> <p><span>We all want things to
go back to normal quickly. But what most of us have probably not
yet realized—yet will soon—is that things
won’t go back to normal after a few weeks, or even a few
months. Some things never
will.</span></p> <p><span>It’s now widely agreed (<a
href="
HTML https://www.technologyreview.com/f/615369/uk-dropping-coronavirus-herd-immunity-strategy-250000-dead/">even<br
/>by Britain, finally</a>) that every country needs to
“flatten the curve”: impose <a
href="
HTML https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615355/coronavirus-social-distancing-during-pandemic/">social<br
/>distancing</a> to slow the spread of the virus so that the
number of people sick at once doesn’t cause the
health-care system to collapse, as it is threatening to do in
Italy right now. That means the pandemic needs to last, at a low
level, until either enough people have had Covid-19 to leave
most immune (assuming immunity lasts for years, which <a
href="
HTML https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-pandemic-herd-immunity-uk-boris-johnson/608065/">we<br
/>don’t know</a>) or there’s a
vaccine.</span></p> <p><span>How long would that take, and
how draconian do social restrictions need to be? Yesterday
President Donald Trump, announcing new guidelines such as a
10-person limit on gatherings, said that “with several
weeks of focused action, we can turn the corner and turn it
quickly.” In China, six weeks of lockdown <a
href="
HTML https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/locked-down-in-beijing-i-watched-china-beat-back-the-coronavirus/2020/03/16/f839d686-6727-11ea-b199-3a9799c54512_story.html">are<br
/>beginning to ease</a> now that new cases have fallen to a
trickle.</span></p> <p><span>But it won’t end there.
As long as someone in the world has the virus, breakouts can and
will keep recurring without stringent controls to contain them.
In a <a
href="
HTML https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf">report<br
/>yesterday</a> (pdf), researchers at Imperial College London
proposed a way of doing this: impose more extreme social
distancing measures every time admissions to intensive care
units (ICUs) start to spike, and relax them each time admissions
fall. Here’s how that looks in a
graph.</span></p> <figure> <div> <div> <div>
;<div><img
alt="A graph of weekly ICU cases over time."
src="
HTML https://cdn.technologyreview.com/i/images/periodic-social-distancing_0.jpg?sw=616&cx=0&cy=0&cw=1245&ch=762"<br
/>srcset="
HTML https://cdn.technologyreview.com/i/images/periodic-social-distancing_0.jpg?sw=616&cx=0&cy=0&cw=1245&ch=762<br
/>1x,
HTML https://cdn.technologyreview.com/i/images/periodic-social-distancing_0.jpg?sw=1232&cx=0&cy=0&cw=1245&ch=762<br
/>2x" role="button" tabindex="0"
/></div> </div> </div> </div> <figcaption>Period
ic
bouts of social distancing keep the pandemic in
check. <div>IMPERIAL COLLEGE COVID-19 RESPONSE
TEAM.</div> </figcaption> </figure> <p><span>The
orange line is ICU admissions. Each time they rise above a
threshold—say, 100 per week—the country would close
all schools and most universities and adopt social distancing.
When they drop below 50, those measures would be lifted, but
people with symptoms or whose family members have symptoms would
still be confined at home.</span></p> <p><span>What counts
as “social distancing”? The researchers define it as
“All households reduce contact outside household, school
or workplace by 75%.” That doesn’t mean you get to
go out with your friends once a week instead of four times. It
means everyone does everything they can to minimize social
contact, and overall, the number of contacts falls by
75%.</span></p> <p><span>Under this model, the researchers
conclude, social distancing and school closures would need to be
in force some two-thirds of the time—roughly two months on
and one month off—until a vaccine is available, which will
take at least 18 months (if it <a
href="
HTML https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615331/a-coronavirus-vaccine-will-take-at-least-18-monthsif-it-works-at-all/">works<br
/>at all</a>). They note that the results are “qualitative
ly
similar for the US.”</span></p> <p><span><em>Eighteen
months!?</em> Surely there must be other solutions. Why not just
build more ICUs and treat more people at once, for
example?</span></p> <p><span>Well, in the researchers’
model, that didn’t solve the problem. Without social
distancing of the whole population, they found, even the best
mitigation strategy—which means isolation or quarantine of
the sick, the old, and those who have been exposed, plus school
closures—would still lead to a surge of critically ill
people <em>eight times bigger</em> than the US or UK system can
cope with. (That’s the lowest, blue curve in the graph
below; the flat red line is the current number of ICU beds.)
Even if you set factories to churn out beds and ventilators and
all the other facilities and supplies, you’d still need
far more nurses and doctors to take care of
everyone.</span></p> <figure> <div> <div> <div>&
#13;<div><img
alt="A graph of critical care beds occupied over time."
src="
HTML https://cdn.technologyreview.com/i/images/mitigation-scenarios.jpg?sw=616&cx=0&cy=0&cw=1121&ch=682"<br
/>srcset="
HTML https://cdn.technologyreview.com/i/images/mitigation-scenarios.jpg?sw=616&cx=0&cy=0&cw=1121&ch=682<br
/>1x,
HTML https://cdn.technologyreview.com/i/images/mitigation-scenarios.jpg?sw=1232&cx=0&cy=0&cw=1121&ch=682<br
/>2x" role="button" tabindex="0"
/></div> </div> </div> </div> <figcaption>In all
scenarios without widespread social distancing, the number of
Covid cases overwhelms the healthcare system. <div>IMPERIAL
COLLEGE COVID-19 RESPONSE
TEAM</div> </figcaption> </figure> <p><span>How
about imposing restrictions for just one batch of five months or
so? No good—once measures are lifted, the pandemic breaks
out all over again, only this time it’s in winter, the
worst time for overstretched health-care
systems.</span></p> <figure> <div> <div> <div>&#
13;<div><img
alt="A graph showing critical care beds occupied over time for
the suppression scenario."
src="
HTML https://cdn.technologyreview.com/i/images/suppression-scenario-for-five-months.jpg?sw=890&cx=0&cy=0&cw=1505&ch=663"<br
/>srcset="
HTML https://cdn.technologyreview.com/i/images/suppression-scenario-for-five-months.jpg?sw=890&cx=0&cy=0&cw=1505&ch=663<br
/>1x,
HTML https://cdn.technologyreview.com/i/images/suppression-scenario-for-five-months.jpg?sw=1780&cx=0&cy=0&cw=1505&ch=663<br
/>2x" role="button" tabindex="0"
/></div> </div> </div> </div> <figcaption>If
full social distancing and other measures are imposed for five
months, then lifted, the pandemic comes back. <div>IMPERIAL
COLLEGE COVID-19 RESPONSE
TEAM.</div> </figcaption> </figure> <p><span>And
what if we decided to be brutal: set the threshold number of ICU
admissions for triggering social distancing much higher,
accepting that many more patients would die? Turns out it makes
little difference. Even in the least restrictive of the Imperial
College scenarios, we’re shut in more than half the
time.</span></p> <p><span>This isn’t a temporary
disruption. It’s the start of a completely different way
of life.</span></p> <div> <h3><strong>Living in a state
of pandemic </strong></h3> </div> <p><span>In the short
term, this will be hugely damaging to businesses that rely on
people coming together in large numbers: restaurants, cafes,
bars, nightclubs, gyms, hotels, theaters, cinemas, art
galleries, shopping malls, craft fairs, museums, musicians and
other performers, sporting venues (and sports teams), conference
venues (and conference producers), cruise lines, airlines,
public transportation, private schools, day-care centers.
That’s to say nothing of the stresses on parents thrust
into home-schooling their kids, people trying to care for
elderly relatives without exposing them to the virus, people
trapped in abusive relationships, and anyone without a financial
cushion to deal with swings in
income.</span></p> <aside> <div a=""
href="
HTML https://forms.technologyreview.com/subscriptions/"><a<br
/>href="
HTML https://forms.technologyreview.com/subscriptions/"><strong></strong></a></div> </aside> <p><span>There’ll<br
/>be some adaptation, of course: gyms could start selling home
equipment and online training sessions, for example. We’ll
see an explosion of new services in what’s already been
dubbed the “<a
href="
HTML https://medium.com/matter/the-shut-in-economy-ec3ec1294816">shut-in<br
/>economy</a>.” One can also <a
href="
HTML https://slate.com/business/2020/03/coronavirus-goodbye-to-the-before-times.html">wax<br
/>hopeful</a> about the way some habits might change—less
carbon-burning travel, more local supply chains, more walking
and biking.</span></p> <p><span>But the disruption to many,
many businesses and livelihoods will be impossible to manage.
And the shut-in lifestyle just isn’t sustainable for such
long periods.</span></p> <p><span>So how can we live in this
new world? Part of the answer—hopefully—will be
better health-care systems, with pandemic response units that
can move quickly to identify and contain outbreaks before they
start to spread, and the ability to quickly ramp up production
of medical equipment, testing kits, and drugs. Those will be too
late to stop Covid-19, but they’ll help with future
pandemics.</span></p> <p><span>In the near term, we’ll
probably find awkward compromises that allow us to retain some
semblance of a social life. Maybe movie theaters will take out
half their seats, meetings will be held in larger rooms with
spaced-out chairs, and gyms will require you to book workouts
ahead of time so they don’t get
crowded.</span></p> <p><span>Ultimately, however, I predict
that we’ll restore the ability to socialize safely by
developing more sophisticated ways to identify who is a disease
risk and who isn’t, and
discriminating—legally—against those who
are.</span></p> <p><span>We can see harbingers of this in
the measures some countries are taking today. Israel is going to
<a
href="
HTML https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/world/middleeast/israel-coronavirus-cellphone-tracking.html">use<br
/>the cell-phone location data</a> with which its intelligence
services track terrorists to trace people who’ve been in
touch with known carriers of the virus. Singapore does
exhaustive <a
href="
HTML https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615353/singapore-is-the-model-for-how-to-handle-the-coronavirus/">contact<br
/>tracing</a>and publishes detailed data on each known case, all
but identifying people by
name.</span></p> <div> <div><twitter-widget
data-tweet-id="1234616723615166465"> <div
data-twitter-event-id="0"> <div
data-click-to-open-target="
HTML https://twitter.com/RyutaroUchiyama/status/1234616723615166465"<br
/>data-iframe-title="Twitter Tweet" data-scribe="page:tweet"
lang="en"
data-twitter-event-id="2"> <div> <div> <blockquote
cite="
HTML https://twitter.com/RyutaroUchiyama/status/1234616723615166465"<br
/>data-tweet-id="1234616723615166465"
data-scribe="section:subject"> <div><a
data-scribe="element:user_link"
href="
HTML https://twitter.com/RyutaroUchiyama"
aria-label="📎
® ¥ ¨ † å ® ø (screen name:
RyutaroUchiyama)"><img data-scribe="element:avatar"
data-src-2x="
HTML https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1208543072273010689/CWpHKcTv_bigger.jpg"<br
/>alt=""
data-src-1x="
HTML https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1208543072273010689/CWpHKcTv_normal.jpg"<br
/>src="
HTML https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1208543072273010689/CWpHKcTv_bigger.jpg"<br
/>/></a> <div
data-scribe="component:author"> <div><span><span
title="📎 ® ¥ ¨ † å ®
ø" data-scribe="element:name"><img
src="
HTML https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/72x72/1f4ce.png"<br
/>draggable="false" alt="📎" title="Paperclip"
aria-label="Emoji: Paperclip" /> ® ¥ ¨ †
å ® ø</span></span><span
title="@RyutaroUchiyama" data-scribe="element:screen_name"
dir="ltr">@RyutaroUchiyama</span></div> </div> </div>
3;<div
data-scribe="component:tweet"> <p lang="en" dir="ltr">I'm
stunned by the depth of <a
href="
HTML https://twitter.com/hashtag/coronavirus?src=hash"<br
/>data-query-source="hashtag_click" dir="ltr" rel="tag"
data-scribe="element:hashtag"><span>#</span><span>coronavirus</s
pan></a>
information being released in <a
href="
HTML https://twitter.com/hashtag/Singapore?src=hash"<br
/>data-query-source="hashtag_click" dir="ltr" rel="tag"
data-scribe="element:hashtag"><span>#</span><span>Singapore</spa
n></a>.
On this website you can see every known infection case, where
the person lives and works, which hospital they got admitted to,
and the network topology of carriers, all laid out on a
time-series <a href="
HTML https://t.co/wckG8KpPDE"<br
/>data-pre-embedded="true" dir="ltr"
data-scribe="">pic.twitter.com/wckG8KpPDE</a></p> <div>
<div><a
title="Like"
href="
HTML https://twitter.com/intent/like?tweet_id=1234616723615166465"<br
/>data-scribe="component:actions"><span
data-scribe="element:heart_count">20.8K</span></a></div> <di
v><a
data-datetime="2020-03-02T23:08:59+0000"
data-scribe="element:full_timestamp"
href="
HTML https://twitter.com/RyutaroUchiyama/status/1234616723615166465"><time<br
/>datetime="2020-03-02T23:08:59+0000" pubdate="" title="Time
posted: March 02, 2020 23:08:59 (UTC)">7:08 PM - Mar 2,
2020</time></a></div> <div data-scribe="element:notice"><a
href="
HTML https://support.twitter.com/articles/20175256"<br
/>title="Twitter Ads info and privacy"><span>Twitter Ads info an
d
privacy</span></a></div> </div> </div> </blockquote>
</div> <div
data-scribe="element:conversation_text">10.6K people are talking
about
this</div> </div> </div> </div> </twitter-widget
></div> </div> <p><span>We
don’t know exactly what this new future looks like, of
course. But one can imagine a world in which, to get on a
flight, perhaps you’ll have to be signed up to a service
that tracks your movements via your phone. The airline
wouldn’t be able to see where you’d gone, but it
would get an alert if you’d been close to known infected
people or disease hot spots. There’d be similar
requirements at the entrance to large venues, government
buildings, or public transport hubs. There would be temperature
scanners everywhere, and your workplace might demand you wear a
monitor that tracks your temperature or other vital signs. Where
nightclubs ask for proof of age, in future they might ask for
proof of immunity—an identity card or some kind of digital
verification via your phone, showing you’ve already
recovered from or been vaccinated against the latest virus
strains.</span></p> <div> <div><twitter-widget
data-tweet-id="1239583581325778944"> <div
data-twitter-event-id="1"> <div
data-click-to-open-target="
HTML https://twitter.com/CarolYujiaYin/status/1239583581325778944"<br
/>data-iframe-title="Twitter Tweet" data-scribe="page:tweet"
lang="en"
data-twitter-event-id="3"> <div> <div> <blockquote
cite="
HTML https://twitter.com/CarolYujiaYin/status/1239583581325778944"<br
/>data-tweet-id="1239583581325778944"
data-scribe="section:subject"> <div><a
data-scribe="element:user_link"
href="
HTML https://twitter.com/CarolYujiaYin"
aria-label="Carol Yin
(screen name: CarolYujiaYin)"><img data-scribe="element:avatar"
data-src-2x="
HTML https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1214201602627657728/UPBqEz04_bigger.jpg"<br
/>alt=""
data-src-1x="
HTML https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1214201602627657728/UPBqEz04_normal.jpg"<br
/>src="
HTML https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1214201602627657728/UPBqEz04_bigger.jpg"<br
/>/></a> <div
data-scribe="component:author"> <div><span><span
title="Carol Yin" data-scribe="element:name">Carol
Yin</span></span><span title="@CarolYujiaYin"
data-scribe="element:screen_name"
dir="ltr">@CarolYujiaYin</span></div> </div> </div>
<div
data-scribe="component:tweet"> <p lang="en" dir="ltr">I had
to travel earlier this month and this is how my movements were
being tracked for the purpose of <a
href="
HTML https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hash"<br
/>data-query-source="hashtag_click" dir="ltr" rel="tag"
data-scribe="element:hashtag"><span>#</span><span>COVID19</span>
</a>
containment.
Follow <a href="
HTML https://twitter.com/RadiiChina"
dir="ltr"
data-mentioned-user-id="834399049943887873"
data-scribe="element:mention"><span>@</span><span>RadiiChina</sp
an></a>
for more videos on <a
href="
HTML https://twitter.com/hashtag/China?src=hash"<br
/>data-query-source="hashtag_click" dir="ltr" rel="tag"
data-scribe="element:hashtag"><span>#</span><span>China</span></
a>!
<a href="
HTML https://twitter.com/hashtag/coronavirus?src=hash"<br
/>data-query-source="hashtag_click" dir="ltr" rel="tag"
data-scribe="element:hashtag"><span>#</span><span>coronavirus</s
pan></a><a
href="
HTML https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID2019?src=hash"<br
/>data-query-source="hashtag_click" dir="ltr" rel="tag"
data-scribe="element:hashtag"><span>#</span><span>COVID2019</spa
n></a></p> <div> <article
data-scribe="component:card" dir="ltr"> <div> <div
data-=""> <div data-=""><a
href="
HTML https://twitter.com/CarolYujiaYin/status/1239583581325778944"><img<br
/>data-image="
HTML https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1239582791165042688/pu/img/8sl-derCG5NXzvqs"<br
/>alt="Embedded video" data-scribe="element:poster_image"
src="
HTML https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1239582791165042688/pu/img/8sl-derCG5NXzvqs?format=jpg&name=medium"<br
/>/></a></div> </div> </div> </article> </div>&#
13;<div> <div><a
title="Like"
href="
HTML https://twitter.com/intent/like?tweet_id=1239583581325778944"<br
/>data-scribe="component:actions"><span
data-scribe="element:heart_count">537</span></a></div> <div>
<a
data-datetime="2020-03-16T16:05:30+0000"
data-scribe="element:full_timestamp"
href="
HTML https://twitter.com/CarolYujiaYin/status/1239583581325778944"><time<br
/>datetime="2020-03-16T16:05:30+0000" pubdate="" title="Time
posted: March 16, 2020 16:05:30 (UTC)">12:05 PM - Mar 16,
2020</time></a> · <a
href="
HTML https://twitter.com/search?q=place%3A01a20da949498784">Shanghai,<br
/>People's Republic of China</a></div> <div
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href="
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</div> <div
data-scribe="element:conversation_text">263 people are talking
about
this</div> </div> </div> </div> </twitter-widget
></div> </div> <p><span>We’ll
adapt to and accept such measures, much as we’ve adapted
to increasingly stringent airport security screenings in the
wake of terrorist attacks. The intrusive surveillance will be
considered a small price to pay for the basic freedom to be with
other people.</span></p> <p><span>As usual, however, the
true cost will be borne by the poorest and weakest. People with
less access to health care, or who live in more disease-prone
areas, will now also be more frequently shut out of places and
opportunities open to everyone else. Gig workers—from
drivers to plumbers to freelance yoga instructors—will see
their jobs become even more precarious. Immigrants, refugees,
the undocumented, and ex-convicts will face yet another obstacle
to gaining a foothold in
society.</span></p> <p><span>Moreover, unless there are
strict rules on how someone’s risk for disease is
assessed, governments or companies could choose any
criteria—you’re high-risk if you earn less than
$50,000 a year, are in a family of more than six people, and
live in certain parts of the country, for example. That creates
scope for algorithmic bias and hidden discrimination, as
happened last year with an algorithm used by US health insurers
that turned out to <a
href="
HTML https://www.technologyreview.com/f/614626/a-biased-medical-algorithm-favored-white-people-for-healthcare-programs/">inadvertently<br
/>favor white people</a>.</span></p> <p><span>The world has
changed many times, and it is changing again. All of us will
have to adapt to a new way of living, working, and forging
relationships. But as with all change, there will be some who
lose more than most, and they will be the ones who have lost far
too much already. The best we can hope for is that the depth of
this crisis will finally force countries—the US, in
particular—to fix the yawning social inequities that make
large swaths of their populations so intensely
vulnerable.</span></p>[/html]
#Post#: 15940--------------------------------------------------
The Sober Math Everyone Must Understand about the Pandemic
By: Surly1 Date: March 18, 2020, 6:04 am
---------------------------------------------------------
The Sober Math Everyone Must Understand about the Pandemic
HTML https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993
Jason S Warner
[img
width=640]
HTML https://miro.medium.com/max/2048/0*fiXG-RwZfGtErF18.jpeg[/img]
Photo Credit: Steve R Giss, MD, FACS.
This post is too long. It takes 19 minutes to read according to
Medium. It has been viewed 1.9M times in less than 24 hours. You
should read it, too.
I wrote this post on Facebook on Thursday Night, March 12th
2020. Since I wrote it, the post been shared 160k times and I’ve
been asked to repost it here so people can share on Twitter and
other platforms. Please distribute freely.
It’s reposted in its entirety here, with no edits.
HTML https://www.facebook.com/jason.scott.warner/posts/10163742243430144
The Long Facebook Post:
This is a long post addressing two underlying issues with the
current response to the pandemic that leave me concerned. It’s
the longest post I’ve ever written.
For those of you not taking action, or believing the pandemic to
be “over hyped”, you can make fun of me as much as you want now
or when this is over. You can make me the subject of memes and
post it everywhere. I will pose for the picture. I am not trying
to convince you, but I do feel compelled to share information
that I deem critical to all of us, which is why I am posting
this at all.
WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE 5 MINUTES TO READ AND CONSIDER THE
INFORMATION I AM SHARING:
As of 3/15/20 at 9 am PST this post has been shared over 50k
times since it was posted 2 days ago. So a lot of people find
value in the post and although it’s a long read, I believe you
will find this information valuable too.
For those of you who don’t know me well, I am analytical and
metered. I don’t freak out nor do I respond emotionally. I also
don’t post a bunch of bullshit or political or controversial
stuff on Facebook. I founded and am CEO of a successful software
company that provides SaaS based data, analytics, and dashboards
to recruiting departments at companies we all know. As you would
expect, I am data driven and fact based. Before founding my
company I held executive roles leading very large recruiting
teams at some of the world’s fastest growing companies such as
Starbucks and Google. At Google I was fortunate enough to report
to Sheryl Sandberg before she took the Facebook COO role. I was
a Chemical Engineering major in college and have a business
degree from a top undergraduate business school. I am not one
for hyperbole or histrionics. My bullshit factor is close to
zero.
I share all this personal information only to help solidify that
this post may be worth reading and sharing with others. I would
encourage you to forward or share this post at your discretion.
Many people do not understand what is happening with the
pandemic to the degree required which is why I took the time to
write this and share this on Facebook.
Now that I’ve gotten the introduction out of the way, here are
two issues I want to bring to everyone’s attention.
ISSUE ONE: SOCIAL NORMS ARE POWERFUL MOTIVATORS AND GETTING IN
THE WAY OF PEOPLE TAKING THE RIGHT STEPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
PANDEMIC:
One of the current problems with addressing the pandemic is the
social pressures of taking action today. It’s awkward, and feels
like an over-reaction. The reason it feels like an overreaction
is that most people OVERWEIGHT the currently reported cases and
inherently UNDERWEIGHT the mathematics of how the virus is
spreading and what will happen in about 30 days time. This is
because our brains tend to think linearly as opposed to
logarithmically. It’s the same reason many people don’t save for
retirement or understand compound interest.
To create a new social norm, human beings like to see behavior
modeled. This serves as a signal that says, “oh, someone else is
doing it so I should do it also.”
SO HERE IS A SOCIAL BENCHMARK FOR REFERENCE — THIS IS WHAT I’VE
DONE FOR MY FAMILY TO DATE:
I have already isolated my family. We have canceled EVERYTHING.
We have canceled previously scheduled doctor visits. Social get
togethers. No play dates. Normal routine meetings. Everything
has been canceled. It’s difficult and socially awkward. Some of
you think I’m crazy, but I’m doing it not because I am afraid,
but because I am good at math (more on that in part 2). I had to
have my 16 year old daughter quit her job coaching junior
gymnasts at the local gym, with one day’s notice and also tell
my kids they can’t attend youth group at church. Both of those
were tough discussions. I told a very close friend he shouldn’t
stay at my house this weekend even though he was planning to and
had booked his flight from the Bay Area. I canceled another dear
friend’s visit for later this month to go snowboarding on Mt
Bachelor.
We are not eating out. Our kids are already doing online school
so we don’t have to make changes there. I would not send my kids
to school even if they were in public or private school. We have
eliminated all non-essential contact with other people. We will
only venture out to grocery shop when required. We will still go
outside to parks, go mountain biking, hiking, and recreate to
keep ourselves sane and do other things as a family, just not
with other people. We have stocked up on food and have a supply
for ~2 months. We have stocked up on other goods that if
depleted would create hardship, like medicines and feminine
hygiene products. We have planned for shortages of essential
items.
THE REASON I HAVE CHOSEN THIS ROUTE FOR MY FAMILY IS MULTI
FACETED:
1. Although my family is considered low risk (I’m 49 in good
health, Angi is 46 and in good health, and our kids are 14 and
16), we must assume that the healthcare system cannot help us,
because the hospitals will become overwhelmed very quickly. Most
American hospitals will become overwhelmed in approximately 30
days unless something changes. More on this in part 2 below. So
although we are in great health and unlikely to become gravely
ill, the risk is greater if you do not have access to the
medical care that you need. This is something for everyone to
consider. As a society we are accustomed to having access to the
best medical care available. Our medical system will be
overwhelmed unless we practice social distancing at scale. That
said, the medical teams in Italy are seeing an alarming number
of cases from people in their 40s and 50s. Triage tents are
already going up in the parking lots at many hospitals close to
the epicenters in the United States.
2. It’s not a matter of if social distancing will take place,
it’s a matter of when. This is because social distancing is the
only way to stop the virus today.
As I will explain in part 2 below, starting now is FAR more
effective than starting even 2 days from now or tomorrow. This
has been proven by Italy and China (and soon to be France and
other European countries who have been slow to respond.)
[updated as of 3/14 France is now on lockdown mandated by the
government]. Wuhan went on lockdown after roughly 400 cases were
identified (and they had access to testing that America has
systematically failed to do well to date). The US already has
more than 4 times this number of known infected cases as Wuhan
did when it was shut down, and our citizens are far more mobile
and therefore spreading the virus more broadly when compared to
Wuhan. Yet our response is tepid at best.
If hand washing and “being smart” were sufficient Italy would
not be in crisis. So I pray the draconian measures are coming
from our government, because they are required to stop the
spread of the virus. It’s better to start sooner than later as
the cost is actually far greater if we wait. I pray they close
all schools and non-essential services the way that Italy and
China have done.
3. Spreading the virus puts those in the high-risk category at
much greater risk. This is the moral argument. It’s a strong
argument because there are only two ways, as of today, that the
virus can be stopped: let it run its course and infect 100s of
millions of people, or social distancing. There is no other way
today. If you don’t practice social distancing, people
downstream from you that you transmit the virus to will die, and
many will suffer.
4. The risk of infection is increasing exponentially, because
the quantity of infected people, most who will not show
symptoms, is doubling every three days. So the longer you wait
to self-isolate, the greater the chance of you or someone you
love becoming infected and then you infecting others because
more of the population is becoming infected. There are twice as
many infected people today as there was on Tuesday.
5. The virus is already in your town. It’s everywhere. Cases are
typically only discovered when someone gets sick enough to seek
medical attention. This is important as it typically takes ~5
days to START showing ANY symptoms. Here’s the math: For every
known case there are approximately 50 unknown cases. This is
because if I become sick, I infect several people today, and
they infect a few people each tomorrow (as do I), and the total
count of infected people doubles every 3 days until I get so
sick I get hospitalized or get tested and become a “known case”.
But in the time it takes me to figure out I am sick 50 others
downline from me now have the virus. So every third day the
infection rate doubles until I get so sick that I realize I have
the virus an am hospitalized or otherwise tested. Harvard and
Massachusetts General Hospital estimate that there are 50x more
infections than known infections as reported (citation below).
The implication of this is that the virus is already
“everywhere” and spreading regardless if your city has zero, few
or many reported cases. So instead of the 1573 reported known
cases today there are likely 78,650 cases, at least, in the
United States. Which will double to 157,300 by this Sunday. And
this will double to 314,600 cases by this coming Wednesday. So
in less than 1 week the number of total infected in the United
States will quadruple. This is the nature of exponential math.
It’s actually unfortunate that we are publishing the figures for
known cases as it diverts attention away from more important
numbers (like the range of estimated actual cases). [Update as
of 3/15/20 — I’ve been sent more research that may add clarity
to the ACTUAL cases vs CONFIRMED cases and will update this post
with any conclusions]
6. Some people cannot, or will not, practice social distancing
for a variety of reasons and will continue to spread the virus
to many people. So everyone else must start today.
The reasons above are why I have begun to practice social
distancing. It’s not easy. But you should do it too.
The hospitals will be at capacity and there are not enough
ventilators. You will hear a lot about this issue in the coming
few weeks… the shortage of ventilators.
ISSUE TWO: MANY PEOPLE ARE FOCUSED ON THE WRONG NUMBERS:
Yes, the virus only kills a small percentage of those afflicted.
Yes, the flu kills 10s of thousands of people annually. Yes, 80%
of people will experience lightweight symptoms with COVID19. Yes
the mortality rate of COVID19 is relatively low (1–2%). All of
this true, but is immaterial. They are the wrong numbers to
focus on…
The nature of exponential math is that the infection rates start
slowly, and then goes off like a bomb and overwhelms the
hospitals. You will understand this math clearly in the next
section if you do the short math exercise. Evergreen hospital in
Seattle is already in triage. I have heard credible reports from
people on the ground that they are already becoming overwhelmed.
And the bomb won’t really go off for a few more days. Probably
by Wednesday, March 18th (next week). In just a few days from
now we will hear grave reports from Seattle hospitals. [update
as of 3/15/20 — see the comments section below for an update
from a staff member at Evergreen Hospital in Kirkland, WA]
You should assume the virus is everywhere at this point, even if
you have no confirmed cases in your area.
YOU SHOULD DO THIS SIMPLE 2 MINUTE MATH EXERCISE (NO REALLY TAKE
TWO MINUTES AND DO IT):
To further understand exponential growth, take the number of
confirmed cases in your area and multiply by 10 (or 50 if you
believe Harvard and Massachusetts General estimations) to
account for the cases that are not yet confirmed. If you have no
confirmed cases choose a small number. I’d suggest 10 cases in
your city, if no cases are yet reported. But you can use
whatever number you like. This number of infected people doubles
every ~3 days as the infection spreads. So literally take your
number, and multiply by 2. Then do it again. Then do it again.
Then do it again. Do this multiplication exercise 10 times in
total.
2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x (the number of estimated
infections in your city today (not just the reported cases)).
This result is the estimate for the actual cases in your area 30
days from now. The math will take 30 seconds to complete with a
calculator and it’s worth doing the math to see how it grows.
This end number is the number of cases in your city 30 days from
today if a large percentage of the population do not practice
social distancing.
2 to the 10th power is 1024. When something doubles 10 times,
it’s the same as multiplying by 1024. The infection rate of the
virus doubles every 3 days. In thirty days there will be 1,024
times the number of infected people in your area as there is
today if your community does not immediately put social
distancing into practice. One thousand and twenty four times as
many infected people as there is today, in just 30 days.
Next, divide the final number (the scary big one) you just
calculated by the current population of your city and you will
be able to get the percentage of people THAT YOU KNOW PERSONALLY
who will be infected 30 days from now.
THIS PART IS IMPORTANT: Next take 15% (multiply by 0.15) of that
final 30 day number of total infected people (the number you
calculated by multiplying by 2 ten times). This will provide an
estimate of the serious cases which will require
hospitalization, and compare it to the number of beds and
ventilators available at your local hospital. Google the “number
of beds” and the name of your local hospital now. It takes 2
seconds and the number of beds is easy to find. 65% of beds are
already occupied by patients unrelated to the coronavirus. St
Charles in Bend, Oregon where I live, has 226 beds and the town
is roughly 100,000 people. Most hospitals have on average, 40 or
fewer ventilators. 5% of patients require ICU treatment. There
are very few ICU beds compared to regular beds in hospitals.
There are very few negative pressure areas in any hospital to
deal with the containment of airborne diseases.
These numbers you just calculated are the Big Problem: Too many
patients, not enough beds, and a serious shortage of ventilators
(the biggest problem) if we don’t immediately begin social
distancing. More on this biggest problem related to the
insufficient quantity of ventilators is below.
COUNTRIES AND CITIES THAT GET OVERWHELMED WILL HAVE A MUCH
GREATER MORTALITY RATE BECAUSE THEY WON’T BE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY
PROVIDE MEDICAL CARE.
And by medical care I mean not just coronavirus patients. Your
son or daughter that needs acute care surgery this May for his
badly broken leg will be attended to by an orthopedic doctor
that has been working at maximum capacity and working 18 hour
shifts for 7 days every week for 6 weeks because it was required
to care for all the coronavirus patients at her hospital. Or the
orthopedic surgeon will be sick with the virus and your son or
daughter will be operated on in a tent in the hospital parking
lot by a non-expert or a member of the National Guard. Your
elderly Mom that has diabetes and goes into acute distress next
month may not receive ANY medical care because the doctors are
consumed and have to prioritize patients based on triage
guidelines based on success rate probabilities. Your sibling’s
family that are all injured in a terrible car crash in June will
have diminished care. If one of them needs a ventilator there
will be none available because all of them will be in use by
critical coronavirus patients. Your young friend with cancer and
a compromised immune system from treatment will succumb even
though the cancer was curable and the treatment was working,
because their body was too fragile to combat the coronavirus due
to the chemotherapy and they couldn’t receive the customized,
acute care required due to the hospital being overwhelmed. All
of the above is currently happening in Italy, who had the same
number of infections we have today just 2 weeks ago. You must
start social distancing today.
The count of actual virus infections doubles every ~3 days. The
news and government agencies are lagging in their response. So
we hear that the US only has 1573 cases today (3/12/20) [update
as of 3/15/20: 3115 confirmed cases), ( see
HTML https://www.worldometers.inf
o/coronavirus/) and it doesn’t seem
like a lot. It would be better to report the estimated actual
cases, since reported cases don’t tell us much. However, we know
from China that the actual number of cases are at least an order
of magnitude greater than the reported cases, because people get
infected and do not display symptoms. In math, an “order of
magnitude” means ten times difference, or put another way, a
factor of 10. 100 is 10 times greater than 10, so it’s an order
of magnitude greater.
Harvard Medical School / Massachusetts General Hospital just
released their estimate (recording is here:
HTML https://externalmediasite.partners.org/…/53a4003de5ab4b4da5…)<br
/>that the actual cases are 50x greater than the reported cases.
So we likely have 75,000 cases in the United States already. The
number of reported cases is not that important.
But let’s assume the current number of cases is only 10,000
ACTUAL cases in the United States just to be conservative and
model out what will happen:
If we don’t stop the virus from spreading, in 30 days we will
have 2 to the 10th power more cases of infected people because
the infection count doubles every 3 days (the virus doubles
every 3 days and there are 10, 3 day periods in 30 days).
This math is familiar if you did the exercise above. If not, go
up and do the math exercise. The math: 2 to the 10th power means
1,024 times as many cases as we have today (2 times 2 repeated
10 times).
This number is a catastrophically big problem for all of us: We
will have 10 million+ actual cases (10,000 actual cases today x
1,024) in the United States in just 30 days’ time if we continue
without extreme social distancing. 10 million people with the
virus. And it will keep doubling every 3 days unless we practice
social distancing.
15% of cases require significant medical attention, which means
that 1.5 million people will require significant medical
attention if 10 million people get infected (15% of 10 Million
total infections = 1.5 million people requiring
hospitalization).
1.5 million hospitalizations is way more than we have beds for
at hospitals in the United States. And 65% of all beds are
already occupied in our hospitals. But many patients (5%) with
the virus need ICU beds, not just any old hospital bed. Only
about 10% of hospital beds are considered intensive care beds.
So we will have a huge bed shortage, but that is not the biggest
problem, as we can erect temporary ICU shelters and bring in
more temporary beds, as Italy has already done, and California
and Washington hospitals have already done. Evergreen Hospital
in Seattle has already erected temporary triage tents in the
parking lot as of 3/13/20. All regular beds are full at
Evergreen Hospital as of yesterday.
Once the government of China, Norway, and Italy came to
understand this math, they reacted accordingly and shut
EVERYTHING down. [update as of 3/15/20 now France has done the
same lockdown]. Extreme social distancing is the only response
available to stop the virus today. The United States is not
responding well nor are other countries like the UK. Countries
that do not respond well will pay a much larger, catastrophic
price.
But hospital beds are not the big problem. The lack of
ventilators is the big problem. Most estimates peg the
ventilators in the United States at roughly 100,000 to 150,000
units. See the study from last month:
HTML http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/…/200214-VentilatorA…
The primary and most serious comorbid (comorbid is a medical
term that means co-existing or happening at the same time)
condition brought on by the Coronavirus is something called
bilateral interstitial pneumonia which requires ventilators for
treatment of seriously ill patients. So if 1.5M people of the 10
million infected 30 days from now require hospital care (15% of
the 10M estimated total infections), 1.3M may not get the care
that they need because we don’t have enough ventilators, beds,
and ICU beds in the United States. And remember, this is only if
ALL OF US EFFECTIVELY start social distancing by April 11th (30
days from today). This increases the mortality rate
significantly.
BUT IF WE START EXTREME SOCIAL DISTANCING BY MARCH 23 (12 days
from original writing), WE AVOID OVER 1.4 MILLION PEOPLE GETTING
CRITICALLY ILL AND OVERWHELMING THE HOSPITALS:
If everyone takes extreme measures to social distance, and the
United States can dramatically reduce the spread of the virus 12
days from now, the math is very different, as the exponential
growth will only be 2 to the 4th power (12 days divided by the
doubling rate of every 3 days equals the exponent of 4):
2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 16
So instead of 10 Million cases in the United States if we wait
30 days, if we act 18 days sooner, we will have only 160,000
cases (16 times the estimated 10,000 actual cases as of today),
of which 15% are likely to require hospitalization. This is
24,000 critical patients (a huge difference compared to 1.5
million acute patients). The difference between taking extreme
measures now, versus waiting even a few days, is very large due
to how exponents work in math.
THE OUTCOME IS EVEN BETTER IF WE TAKE ACTION IN THE NEXT 6 DAYS:
If the vast majority of the population self isolates and
implements social distancing in only 6 days from now the
exponential math is 2 to the 2nd power (6 days divided by the 3
days it takes the virus to double means the exponent is only 2).
In math this is “two squared”.
2 x 2 = 4
Multiplied by the estimated 10,000 ACTUAL cases as of today
(3/12/20) that means only 40,000 total cases will develop, 15%
of which may be critical which is 6,000 critical patients.
This is why you should share this post broadly. If people begin
social distancing in the next 6 days it will greatly reduce the
impact on all of us. It’s why they say a “post goes viral”.
SOCIAL DISTANCING WILL REDUCE THE FINANCIAL IMPACT TO YOU AND
YOUR FAMILY:
Finally, the longer everyone waits to practice significant
social distancing the greater the economic hardship will be on
all of us. Lost jobs. Mortgage defaults. Closed businesses.
Bankruptcies. All will be minimized if you start social
distancing today.
Some of the reasons the economic impacts will be reduced are
worth mentioning: If we stop the virus now the overall duration
of the outbreak will be far shorter. The stock market will
normalize more quickly and recover more quickly. Businesses and
people will be able to survive a shorter duration outbreak vs a
longer duration outbreak. More companies will avoid bankruptcy
if we begin to practice social distancing now.
This is a big financial reason to begin social distancing if you
are employed by any company: if companies see that the virus is
being slowed, they will be less likely to conduct layoffs. You
will be more likely to be laid off or experience a job-related
event if we don’t practice social distancing immediately. As an
HR executive, I’ve been involved in many, many layoffs. It’s the
last thing companies want to do. But if they see that the
pandemic will be shorter lived vs long and drawn out, they are
less likely to make the permanent decision of laying off staff.
The overall economic impact that hits your bank account will be
greater if you wait or you don’t practice social distancing.
This is why Norway acted now, because it’s less economic impact
to take drastic measures early than to do them later, and it
saves a lot of lives and suffering by doing so. And Norway has
only one confirmed death as of this writing.
Many people have suggested they want to support local
restaurants and other businesses, who have seen sales drop by
50–90%. Stopping by and visiting them won’t save them. What will
save them is social distancing and what you do after the
pandemic is over. If you are concerned, call them and buy a gift
certificate over the phone.
START TODAY. I CAN’T STRESS THIS ENOUGH. YOU MUST START TODAY.
Finally, the article that I posted yesterday written by Tomas
Pueyo has been read 30M times in the last few days and has been
updated with new information. It’s worth reading again.
Here’s that link:
HTML https://medium.com/…/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-d…
Other up to date data I frequently consult regarding the
pandemic is here:
HTML https://www.worldometers.inf
o/coronavirus/
I hope this is helpful and useful. My brain focuses on the math
and I try and be fact based in my analysis and interpretation of
how I should respond.
THERE IS MORE INFORMATION IN THE COMMENTS ON THE FACEBOOK POST
WORTH READING AND I WILL BE UPDATING THAT POST, AND THE
COMMENTS, WITH MORE INFORMATION, (AS OPPOSED TO CREATING NEW
POSTS).
MY FINAL PARTING THOUGHT: Please share or forward this post at
your discretion. If everyone shares this post and two of your
friends share this post and so on, we use the power of
exponential math to work in our favor, which seems appropriate
given the virus is using that same exponential math against us.
HOW YOU CAN REALLY HELP: If you know people who have large
numbers of followers, or people in the media, please leverage
your personal relationship with them and ask them to amplify
this post by sharing it.
It would be useful to get the post on Twitter and LinkedIn. If
you know people in government this fact-based post may help
inform them to make the best decisions. I am not active on
Twitter.
It’s time for us humans to go on the offensive against the
virus. We must fight back.
There is only one way to do so: Social Distancing.
Do it today.
NOTE: Anyone, including the media, is free to use this post, any
related content, in all or in part, for any purpose, in any
format, with no attribution required. Please direct message me
if you have other ideas for how to raise awareness.
Finally, I can no longer keep up with friend requests given how
much this post has been shared. To receive updates or follow me,
please use the “Follow” button on Facebook. My page Facebook
page is here, or follow me here on Medium (or both!).
My facebook page:
HTML https://www.facebook.com/jason.scott.warner
If anyone wants to translate this into any other language please
do so and contact me and I’ll repost it in that language.
3/16/20: I am preparing a second post, now that 4 days have gone
by since the first post. To receive it please follow me on FB. I
can not keep up with the friend requests.
#Post#: 15946--------------------------------------------------
Originally published on blog of Union of Concerned Scientists.
By: AGelbert Date: March 18, 2020, 2:39 pm
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By Guest Contributor on Mar 17, 2020 02:08 pm
[center]Union of Concerned Scientists: States Need To Update
Emergency Election Plans, Scientists Need To Step Up
HTML https://cleantechnica.com/2020/03/17/union-of-concerned-scientists-states-need-to-update-emergency-election-plans-scientists-need-to-step-up/[/center]
[img
width=60]
HTML http://renewablerevolution.createaforum.com/gallery/renewablerevolution/3-130418202829.png[/img]<br
/>Agelbert COMMENT: Though I doubt very seriously if the common
sense change to electronic voting (i.e. a voting card issued by
a bank or the government), totally justifed to help contain the
COVID-19 pandemic, is enacted, it is the 🦅 democratic
thing to do.
Of course, the premise for voting with exactly the same ease and
security that 90% (or more) of the voting population now has to
pay for items with a debit or credit card is that the USA is a
democracy.
However, If the USA is a Capitalist run Oligarchy, there is not
a snowball's chance in hell that the majority of the populace
will be given the ability to vote easily. The
👹🎩oligarchs in the USA prefer Class based
hurdles to voting to continue to be firmly in place, as they
have been for a century or more, in order to keep the masses
from threatening their oligarchy with a democracy.
I am NOT talking about electronic voting machines, which
replaced paper ballots for the EXCLUSIVE PURPOSE of having the
vote count easily gamed by hacking the software. Don't tell me
electronic voting machines are not easily hacked. They are
easily hacked. Many experts, for TWO DECADES NOW, have stated as
much, while the main stream media yawns, for some reason...
Rant follows:
HTML http://renewablerevolution.createaforum.com/gallery/renewablerevolution/3-040718162655-1422241.gif<br
/>
DON'T SWALLOW THE BULLSHIT that it's "okay" for the police, the
Department of Motor Vehicles, your Doctor, your Dentist, the
Social Security Administration, the Selective Service System
(and, of course, the CIA and Google) to KNOW whether you are you
but, uhm, uh, you "cannot trust a U.S. Government Web site to
prevent voter fraud". If Banks can protect your money, the
Federal Government, if it really wanted to, can CERTAINLY
protect your vote!
If everyone can get a Social Security Card in the USA, and be
tracked from cradle to grave, it is CHILD'S PLAY to issue a
VOTING CARD (electronic or not) WITH A PIN NUMBER valid for use
ONLY by the person who's Social Security number is associated
with it.
You DO NOT NEED PLACES TO VOTE. People without a computer can
vote in the public libraries during the two to three week period
for the vote to take place in each and every election, from dog
catcher to POTUS.
#Post#: 15951--------------------------------------------------
🦅 Sen. Sherrod Brown Calls Out Senate 🐘 Republic
ans For Delaying Action on Coronavirus
By: AGelbert Date: March 18, 2020, 5:40 pm
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[center][b]🦅 Sen. Sherrod Brown 👍 Calls Out
Senate 🐘 Republicans For Delaying Action on Coronavirus
| NowThis[/b][/center]
6,876 views•Mar 18, 2020
[center]
HTML https://youtu.be/vM-JqqEeAgw[/center]
NowThis News
546K subscribers
Watch this senator put Mitch McConnell on blast for delaying the
national response to COVID-19.
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In US news and current events today, Sen. Sherrod Brown called
out Republicans for inaction on COVID-19. Republicans are
delaying passing the Families First Coronavirus Response Act
which would guarantee sick leave for workers affected by
COVID-19, increase aid for food-insecure families, and guarantee
free testing for people exposed to the coronavirus.
For the latest on the coronavirus and COVID-19 outbreak, and
U.S. politics, subscribe to NowThis News.
#Coronavirus #SherrodBrown #MitchMcConnnell #News #NowThis
#NowThisNews
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Category News & Politics
#Post#: 15952--------------------------------------------------
🦅 Bernie Sanders Reveals Coronavirus Response Proposal o
n Election Night | NowThis
By: AGelbert Date: March 18, 2020, 5:56 pm
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[center]🦅 Bernie Sanders Reveals Coronavirus Response
[img
width=40]
HTML http://renewablerevolution.createaforum.com/gallery/renewablerevolution/3-221017161839.png[/img]<br
/>Proposal on Election Night | NowThis[/center]
17,514 views•Mar 17, 2020
[center]
HTML https://youtu.be/eTDwa3G3DQ8[/center]
NowThis News
546K subscribers
Sen. Bernie Sanders laid out his proposed response to the
coronavirus in this live address on election night.
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In US news and current events today, Sen. Bernie Sanders spoke
about the COVID 19 USA outbreak in this election night live
address. It’s Joe Biden vs Bernie Sanders remaining in the
primary to take on Donald Trump (Home Alone 2 star). After the
recent Joe Biden-Bernie Sanders debate everyone is anticipating
how Bernie Sanders vs Joe Biden will differ in their approach to
the coronavirus problem in America.
#Bernie #BernieSanders #Sanders #Coronavirus #COVID-19
#Democrats #Primary #News #NowThis #NowThisNews
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Category News & Politics
#Post#: 15954--------------------------------------------------
Is Trump Completely Incompetent? (w/ Kshama Sawant 👍)
By: AGelbert Date: March 18, 2020, 9:24 pm
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[center]Is 🦀 Trump Completely Incompetent? (w/ Kshama
Sawant 👍)[/center]
1,395 views•Mar 18, 2020
[center]
HTML https://youtu.be/G-doO0EWyZw[/center]
Thom Hartmann Program
214K subscribers
Seattle was the first area hit in the US with COVID-19, now a
global pandemic. There are reports that there is a complete
breakdown of healthcare and Kshama Sawant from Seattle gave us
her opinions.
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Kshama Sawant, Seattle Council Member (Socialist) District 3,
joined Thom to discuss likely policies in the state going
forward.
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#Post#: 15955--------------------------------------------------
Growing Calls to end 🦍 ICE Raids During the Coronavirus
Pandemic
By: AGelbert Date: March 18, 2020, 9:29 pm
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[center]Growing Calls to end 👹🦍 ICE Raids During
the Coronavirus Pandemic[/center]
1,307 views•Mar 18, 2020
[center]
HTML https://youtu.be/PYSAQ57Lldk[/center]
The Real News Network
391K subscribers
ACLU of Maryland staff attorney says closing immigration courts
is a good first step, but warns prisoners and detainees remain
at risk during the coronavirus outbreak.
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