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#Post#: 212--------------------------------------------------
How the game calculates success rates or Don't be fooled by Obsi
dian Daggers
By: Jessica Date: June 21, 2013, 3:50 pm
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I'll start my lecture on calculating odds with a look on the
Obsidian Dagger. It's a powerful bonus item that you can acquire
in Chapter 1.10 if you get 400 PvP victories. The Dagger is
great, no discussion about that, but it has one property that
might look better than it is which is the following:
+5% to all Attacks
So +5% to Attacks that would mean +5% chance of success,
wouldn't it? No it doesn't, actually you won't get much more
than 1 percentage point out of it in most situations due to the
way your odds are calculated.
Chance of success is your strength divided by the sum of your
strength and your opponent's strength - we'll call those values
attack and defense for simplicity.
The most simple case is 100 attack vs 100 defense resulting in
100/200=50% success, pretty obvious.
Now what if you double the defense with 200 vs 100? That will be
200/300=66.7% chance of success. Disappointed?
The former cases with an Obsidian Dagger would be 105/205=51.2%
and 210/310=67.7% respectively.
To get an excellent 90% chance of success, you would have to
mount 9 times the defense in attack value as in 900 vs 100
(900/1000=90%).
Note also that chance of success is capped at 95% so if you
already overpower the defense at a 19:1 ratio, don't bother
using boons or other measures to increase your chance of
success.
That said, you should always view attack vs defense in terms of
multitudes instead of raw difference. An example:
I can choose between attacking 80 vs 40 and 150 vs 80.
At first glance the second option might seem preferable because
I have 70 points more than the defense as opposed to 40 points
difference.
However on the first option I double the defense and on the
second I don't, resulting in odds of 66.7% and 65.2%
respectively. Those numbers are close but there are more extreme
examples like choosing between 50 vs 10 and 500 vs 300 - guess
which one is better.
Generally the length of the bar gives you already a good measure
of which action has the best chance of success but knowing the
mechanics can help you decide questions like "Should I wait with
that quest until I am more powerful so I have a reasonable
chance of success? How many more points in intrigue do I need
before I have a reasonable chance? How much better would my best
Sworn Sword do this quest if he or she were free?" And most
importantly: "Are legendary and peerless Sworn Sword worth the
cost?" I'd wager no but decide for yourselves.
#Post#: 217--------------------------------------------------
Re: How the game calculates success rates or Don't be fooled by
Obsidian Daggers
By: frankerchief Date: June 22, 2013, 8:20 am
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Thanks Jessica. That is great info!
#Post#: 914--------------------------------------------------
Re: How the game calculates success rates or Don't be fooled by
Obsidian Daggers
By: Hueyjordan Date: January 22, 2019, 9:20 pm
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Is a very good knowledge content Made me think of many things.
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