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#Post#: 263--------------------------------------------------
B.1.1.7 = vui-202012/1
By: gsgs Date: December 17, 2020, 9:48 pm
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HTML https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-2020-wales-scotland-denmark
twitter-thread from @Chjulian , translated from Spanish :
Update: Headlines announce the identification of a "new
variant" of the coronavirus in the UK.
It is not clear if the new variant is responsible for the
increase in cases.
However, this variant is interesting. And here I tell you why 37
/ n
@Chjulian
·
First, we need to understand that our immune system uses
specialized mechanisms
to recognize and eliminate the virus, preventing its spread and
ending disease.
The infectious period is the time in which we can transmit
SARS-CoV-2 to another person
In the case of COVID19, the infectious period begins a couple of
days before symptoms
develop and can last up to a couple of weeks (more details here
HTML https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/8/e039856
). The disease is generally acute, short-lived bone 39 / n
An Immunocompetent individual has a normal
immune response. When our immune
system is weakened, we say it is immunosuppressed.
Immunosuppressed individuals
may have persistent infections that last for longer periods of
time (months!) 40 / n
Under these conditions, SARS-CoV-2 can accumulate many more
mutations than we
would expect (in a single individual) and which could be
transmitted if the transmission
is successful after a long time 41 / n
Remember that it is normal for viruses to mutate and SARS-CoV-2
accumulates
(on average) one or two mutations per month at the population
level 42 / n
[## 1.43 per month , ua5m1.gif {gsgs} ]
The new variant (named B.1.1.7) has 17 mutations (woah!). And it
is speculated that
it could have originated in an individual with a persistent
infection (for example,
an immunosuppressed individual, but we have no information about
it) 43 / n
It is important to mention that our immune system goes to the
battlefield as quickly
as possible to avoid an arms race at the molecular level,
reducing the chances that
the virus will produce a mutation that allows it to evade our
immune response 44 / n
If the hypothesis turns out to be true, it can have important
consequences for treatment.
A persistent infection accumulates diversity and depending on
how we treat it, we may
or may not cause an arms race at the molecular level 45 / n
That is, to select mutations with unknown epidemiological
potential. There is no need
to be alarmed, I just want to show how we scientists must think
and articulate our strategy
to face the battle in the short, medium and long term 46 / N
Nor can we say that a persistent infection in an
immunosuppressed individual is a
greater problem than infections in immunocompetent individuals.
Definitely the
evolutionary forces that "moderate" the evolution of the virus
are different and ... 47 / n
... we hope that the origin of B.1.1.7 was somewhat unusual and
had nothing to do
with the increase in cases (studies continue). There is also a
second hypothesis
(with less support) to explain why this variant has so many 48 /
n mutations
Are you sure they remember minks? there is always the slim
chance that SARS-CoV-2
will adapt to other mammals (By the way, there are no minks on
farms in the UK),
but a prolonged epidemic ... 49 / n
... in the fauna around us it could result in new genetic
variants that could (after a while)
jump to humans with various mutations. For this and other
reasons, it is important to
evaluate what is happening at the level of the fauna around us
50 / n
t really amazes me how much we learn and the twists and turns a
sprout can take! 51 / n
Fortunately, there is no evidence (to date) that this variant
has an impact on the severity
of the disease or on the effectiveness of 52 / n vaccines.
#Post#: 266--------------------------------------------------
Re: B.1.1.7 = vui-202012/1
By: gsgs Date: December 19, 2020, 3:41 am
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Boris Johnson calls crisis meeting over new Covid strain on
Friday night (Dec18)
rumors say it is 50% more transmissable
and now we also have a report from South Africa about a more
transmissable strain,
also containing N501Y
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