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#Post#: 149--------------------------------------------------
updates
By: Acutedevelopers Date: March 19, 2020, 5:22 am
---------------------------------------------------------
I make a new thread to continue my updates, mainly when USA
sleeps,
Asia,Europe . I hope, that's ok ?
continued from my posts in this thread :
HTML https://thisbluemarble.com/showthread.php?t=79252&page=5
please no pictures,videos,long stories, individual stories -
just links,data,statistics
mark speculative,unconfirmed stories with a preceding
"speculative" or such
--------------------------------------------------
my main links
HTML https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
HTML https://www.finanzen.net/index/dax-realtime
HTML https://twitter.com/lookner
who : speech:
HTML https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---28-february-2020
-----------------------------------
China : down again , at usual speed , updats here:
HTML https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/actual-epidemic-charts/case-numbers/msg101/#msg101
----------------------------
Korea : still increasing a lot but some first small signs to
slow down f
rom exponential . Could be similar to China in early
Feb. . But it's very uncertain at this point, just 10 data
points,
not distinguished by region yet.
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/KOR0228A.BMP
maybe I can add descriptions later
Korea,logarithmic,Feb18-Feb28,
these daily tables :
HTML https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
uhh, just I see the new updates of >300+500 new cases, included
these
only 16 deaths and 7 critical in Korea ; CFR<1% ; in general
CFR~2%
-----------------------------------------------------
S speculativ -- headline : Coronavirus plan for London sees
40000 dead and burials in
mass graves [London pop=4-8M , 0.5-1% dead ]
-----------------------------------------------------
dax=11917,dow=25532
----------------------------------------------
03:30 (all times in UTC=GMT worldtime)
Toronto. A man in his 80s with a travel history to Egypt
it could be in Africa already with poor surveillance
----------------------------------
Agenda Free TV said :
> Might be time to just say, it's spreading around the world,
whoever's gonna get
> it will get it, and let's deal with that
no !!! that's the Trump/USA/Germany etc. agenda ;
anti China, anti WHO ,
WHO recommends the drastic Chinese measures to stop it.
hopefully there will be some papers, some modelings soon.
Those who survive will make the statistics what method was
better in the end.
Both for economy and #of lives, diseases.
These successful Chinese measures had been absent from all the
previous modelings, AFAIK. We _urgently_ need the updates
(IMO,gsgs)
--------------------------------------------
> A rough calculation suggests anywhere from 150,000 to 3
million global infections...
From the American Council On Sciene And Health:
------------------------------------------
U.S., people shouldn’t wear face masks to prevent the spread of
infectious illnesss,
according to CDC and DHHS
Dr. Amesh Adalja; The CDC recommendation on masks stands, a
spokesman
------------------------------------------
Major bank economist says the coronavirus market reaction
‘boggles the mind’
[# I wonder what he knows about epidemiology, the models, the
panic.
# what did boggle my mind was the market in 2008,2002 with much
larger declines
# and for what ? just psychology : WMDs in Iraq, debt-awareness
]
The situation in China is even worse than you think, says this
analyst with a history
of accurate calls
# the must mean economically since COVID is under control in
China
-------------------------------------------------
I don't understand the current bruhaha about every single new
case
in any country. Reminds me to 2009. It can't be stopped with
current methods,
only delayed by some days or even weeks.
Our fate lies in our immune system. And the vaccine.
---------------------------------------------------------------
gold strangely down ?!? I have no longer access to my
futures-demo account,
where to get actual futures on non-wall-street-hours ?
HTML https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/
last I saw was VIX=26.00 , dow=25530
Trump: Coronavirus is Democrates' new hoax
HTML https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/trump-says-the-coronavirus-is-the-democrats-new-hoax.html
# he reassures that they were doing everything and were ready.
" We are ready. We are ready. Totally ready.”
# but then he explains why : controlling the borders, the people
who enter.
# That reminds me to George Bush and H5N1.
CNBC gives the dow at 25409.36 , gold at 1587.3 and they use
cookies
HTML https://liveindex.org/nikkei-futures/
: nikkey=21147.5 , doesn't
change
> Global stock markets have lost $6 trillion in value …
# they had won much more in the last ~year
. Investors are selling “profitable positions to raise cash
during a market rout,”
U.S. stock futures point to further sharp declines …
-------------------------------------------------------
Coronavirus in China perhaps as early as October
HTML https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.19.20024851v1
(#52 genomes , but see below : Dec01(93 genomes)
-------------------------------------------
Brazil/SPBR1/2020/02/26 is similar to Germany/BavPat1/2020
---------------------------------------------
TMRCA = mid Nov-early Dec, 93 genomes , virological.org
-------------------------------------------
sorry, I can't find actual index-futures. IMO those ae the best
pandemic-danger
presictors currently. Besides numbers from Korea,Italy,Iran
Italy :
HTML https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy
--------------------------------
@HelenBranswell I think vaccine that is available to the masses
will take a helluva
lot longer than a year
#Post#: 150--------------------------------------------------
Re: updates
By: Acutedevelopers Date: March 19, 2020, 5:36 am
---------------------------------------------------------
2020/03/01
HTML https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
HTML https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
HTML https://www.statnews.com/tag/coronavirus/
---------------------------------------------------
Hubei ex Wuhan , daily new conformed+suspected+suspected
Feb14-Feb29:
4475,4015,3669,3050,2208,1647,1886
1326,1247,1075,889,720,648,543
431,272
------------------------------------------------------
Wuhan , daily new conformed+suspected+suspected Feb14-Feb29:
4695,4107,3999,3739,3543,3038,4118
4655,3377,2543,2275,2059,2183,2096
1322,1008
------------------------------------------------------
South Korea, cases are going down today ? fewer than yesterday
at 09:00
066,073,188,207,204,125,250,
446,424,905,591
--------------------------------------------
world ex China : 7155 cases, 108 deaths, 204 serious/critical
Italy : 1128,29,105
South Korea : 3526,17,10
Iran : 593,43,-
France : 100,2,8
Europe : 1485,31,129 , assuming that 1/3 of severe cases
will die the current CFR-estimate for Europe is 5.0 , but there
could be a delay
from mild to severe to death , although we didn't see much of
this in China.
it could be, that most countries are testing symptomatic, severe
cases first.
The best CFR that we currently have is South Korea with ~0.6%
and they
are testing lots of sect-members routinely.
But this is with a still good working health care and it's only
going on since ~2 weeks.
But symptoms typically get worse in ~20% of cases only after 2
weeks
(see the report from that Wuhan doctor who treated the very
first cases)
------------------------
I can't get WHO-speeches, last from Feb.28 but "This page cannot
be found" errors
HTML https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/media-resources/news
the audio works, 50min
HTML https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/media-resources/press-briefings#
transcript ?
03:00-04:20 Tedros saw no community transmissions on Feb.28 and
concluded that it could
still be contained. He no longer recommends
China-like-lockdowns, AFAICS.
The key were contact-tracing, isolate patients.
> although : 05:00 And to take an all government, all society
approach
and he mentions the China-mission-report (which recommends
lockdowns) but without
comment
>12:50 "interrupt transmission" still no mention of lockdown,
traffic reduction
I stop now at 14:00
-----------ahh, now I find the transcript :
HTML https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---28-february-2020
Tedros opening remarks only. zero hits on "lock" zero hits on
"traffic" zero hits on "cancel"
---------------------------------------
@kakape , 5h
It may feel like every new death, every new country with a case
changes picture.
But in broad terms things happening exactly as experts have
expected them to.
# but they didn't expect the containment in China
That most people don’t feel that way is a sign of how terrible
many officials have
been at communicating what to expect.
--------------------
kakape Feb 28
Just got off the phone with Steven and I think he makes an
important point here.
IF countries are willing to take some extreme measures of social
distancing to curb
#covid19 spread, it will be assuming China manages resurgence
well. If it turns out
no, that will change picture...
[and he started the long thread about it, see the other thread ,
expecting this
would cause a major discussion the next days :
> It may well dominate the #covid19 debate in the coming days. ]
------------------------------
now it seems he no longer talks about these measures, like
everyone else, sigh
---------------------------------------------------------
podcast with Marc Lipsitch , I can't get it with firefox
HTML https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/deep-background-with-noah-feldman/id1460055316#episodeGuid=1ccb9800-387e-11ea-a8b6-8f3e0bd1764d
-------------------------------------------------------
Total in South Korea now 3736 cases, 20 deaths. (CFR 0.5)
Iran=978cases,54deaths (CFR down to 5.5%)
----------------------------------------------
a scientist argues that genomic evidence suggests the
coronavirus has been
spreading in Washington State for 6 weeks
This case, WA2, is on a branch in the evolutionary tree that
descends directly
from WA1, the first reported case in the USA sampled Jan 19,
few hundred current infections.
---------------------------------------------------
Today/video: Neal Ferguson calculates 1000 infections per death
correlation.
# surprise ! Ferguson down to CFR=0.1 ??
> The point is the mortality is 1%, but due to a lag in deaths
there are 1000
> cases "behind" a death.
# for UK ? why should it be so much lower in UK than elsewhere
------------------------I can't find the 50s Ferguson
video------------
HTML https://nzenews.com/2020/02/29/coronavirus-what-are-the-chances-of-dying/
Researchers currently think that between five and 40 coronavirus
cases in 1,000 will result
in death, with a best guess of nine in 1,000 or about 1%.
death rate was ten times higher in the very elderly compared to
the middle-aged.
under 30s – there were eight deaths in 4,500 cases.
Ferguson, suspects China will have handiest showed 10% of its
overall coronavirus infections to start with.
# what does that mean ("handiest") ? >90% underreporting ?
---------------------------------
in Daegu, 2569 cases. 898 in hospital, 1662 waiting at home for
a hospital bed.
------------------------------------
Iran,official,
The slope of the # Corona chart will continue to rise in the
coming days, staying home,
restricting traffic, reducing travel, avoiding unnecessary
travel, canceling any
nationwide gatherings along with personal hygiene tips, the only
means of control.
#Covid_0 will be in the coming weeks
--------
The Islamic Council closes until further notice.
--------------------------------------------
Iran calls on people to stay at home as death toll rises to 54
--------------------------------------
#Post#: 151--------------------------------------------------
Re: updates
By: Acutedevelopers Date: March 19, 2020, 5:43 am
---------------------------------------------------------
2020/03/02
HTML https://twitter.com/lookner
HTML https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
HTML https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
HTML http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
HTML https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
{ In a few days the new interactive website will replace this
spreadsheet }
-------------------------------------
China 80026 2912 7110
SouthKorea 4212 26 34
Italy 1694 34 140
DiamondPrincess 705 6 36
Iran 978 54 175
Japan 256* 6 19
country,confirmed,deaths,severe
Europe:2214,37,170 ;
estimated deaths/confirmed-ratio
Europe:4.2%;SKorea=0.9%;ChinaExHubei=1.5%
------------------------
big increase of cases in Italy 1128-->1694
Feb21-Mar01,17,59,73,77,93,78,250,238,240,568
7 cases in SanMarino (population=30000)
China cases are further down : Hubei ex Wuhan : 272-->200 ,
Wuhan : 1008-->603 ,
in hospital : -->28912-->26901 [39073 1 week ago]; deaths
35-->42 (up)
[106,96,149,68,52,26,41,45,34,42 in the last 10 days]
[32143 under observation, halfed in the last 10 days]
waiting for Korea updates
------------------------------------------------
was it mainly the contact-tracing or the lockdowns that stopped
it in China ?
See th WHO-China-Mission-report about their huge sophisticated
contact tracing with AI and apps and many 5-teams
Neither contact-tracing nor lockdowns are included in the
modelings, afaik
-------------------------------------------------
03:22 GMT , still no update from South Korea , unusual.
South Korea should be the first to watch, whether it can be
contained as in China
05:30 GMT , S.Korea reports ~476 new cases, but the official
update 09:00 is still not out
HTML https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
2020/03/01/~05:00UTC , world ex China : 7155 cases, 108 deaths,
204 serious/critical
2020/03/02/06:11UTC , world ex China=9048,137,291
07:30 , dax=12025(+1.6%),dow=25604(+0.8%),gold=1601, still no
korea-data
12048,25631 just 2min later
vdax :
HTML https://www.finanzen.net/index/vdax_new/charttool
DAX +2.62% now -
HTML https://www.finanzen.net/index/dax-realtime
pandemic canceled
speed is critical :
HTML https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/01/speed-is-critical-as-coronavirus-spreads-in-u-s-officials-face-daunting-task-of-tracing-case-contacts/
# you can automate this. Everyone gets a tracking device to
either communicate
# by satellite or directly with other people's devices or
WLAN-points.
# It all goes to the central Chinese computer who tells the
people where (not) to go .
# There will be warnings when you enter risky areas or when you
become a risky person yourself.
# Your device also records coughs,temperature,
fatigue,heartbeat.
# Hiding your risk-status should be made illegal.
# This might eliminate infectious diseases in some decades.
----------------------------------------------------------------
-
Italy gives a permanently updated page, no history , archive.org
has some snapshots:
when there were 229,283,374,400,528,888,1694 cases . I saved
those to my HD.
OK, I looked at these : I can't see that they concentrate it in
Lombardia and that it
decreases elsewhere or even that it increases slower elsewhere.
As we saw it in China with Wuhan.
---------------------------------------------------------------
DAX=11899,Dow=25603
150 German cases :
HTML https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Fallzahlen.html
#Post#: 152--------------------------------------------------
Re: updates
By: Acutedevelopers Date: March 19, 2020, 5:47 am
---------------------------------------------------------
2020/03/03
HTML https://twitter.com/lookner
HTML https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
HTML https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
HTML https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
HTML http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
HTML https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
----------------------------------------------------
SouthKorea,4812,34,45
Italy,2036,52,140
DiamondPrincess,706,6,36
Iran,1501,66,?
Japan,274,6,23
WorldExChina,10776,180,284 ; estimated CFR=2.55%l
---------------------
SouthKorea_EX_Daegu,73,75,109,130,168,87,168*,81
*:09:00-00:00=15hours instead of 24
still, this doesn't look exponential outside Daegu
----------------------------------
Italy : all regions
------------------------------
dax=12027(+1.4%(against close?)) , dow=26419 (-1.1%)
yesterday dow=+5% !! (26703)
HTML https://www.finanzen.net/index/dax-realtime
they say because of announced government measures, cutting
interest rates
2020/03/02/07:30 , dax=12025(+1.6%),dow=25604(+0.8%)
2020/03/03/07:00 , dax=12033,dow=26544 where the 5% ?
25409-26703
2020/03/03/07:04 , dax=11971,dow=26545
------------------------------
HubeiExWuhan : 200--->123 , Wuhan : 603-->489
-----------------------------------
Italy,accumulated
cases,deaths,severe , Lombardia,Veneto,Emilia-Romagna,other
Feb24-18, 222, 6, 1 , 172, 33, 18, 6
Feb25-12, 283, 7, 1 , 212, 38, 23, 18
Feb26-12, 374,12, 1 , 258, 71, 30, 28
Feb26-18, 400,12, 3 , 258, 71, 47, 39
Feb27-12, 528,14, 42 , 305, 98, 97, 84
Feb28-18, 888,21, 46 , 531,151,145,128
Mar01-18,1577,34, 83 , 984,263,285,162
Mar02-18,1835,52,149 ,1254,273,335,174
5,33,0,27,53,112,10
5,7,17,50,48,140,50
12,10,11,45,44,34,12
STAT-article about Trump,vaccine :
HTML https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/02/trumps-tone-toward-pharma-shifts-coronavirus/
list of COVID-19 drugs and vaccines :
HTML https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/02/coronavirus-drugs-and-vaccines-in-development/
08:53GMT,DAX=12144,Dow=26675
stocks China vs. USA , 3 months :
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/ch-us3.GIF
10:48: 835 new cases and 11 new deaths in Iran. (Source)
08:15: 374 new cases in South Korea. (Source)
01:15: 477 new cases and 6 new deaths in South Korea. (Source)
S. Korea's virus cases near 5,200; President Moon declares war
on virus
Deputy leader of Iran's parliament says 23 members [out of 290]
of parliament in Iran have
been infected with coronavirus.
--------------------------------------------
WHO on Mar02 : the cases in Korea mostly from 5 known clusters
surveillance measures are working and Korea’s epidemic can still
be contained.
containment of COVID-19 is feasible and must remain the top
priority for all countries.
Our message to all countries is: this is not a one-way street.
We can push this virus back.
HTML https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---2-march-2020
-----------------------------------------------
#Post#: 153--------------------------------------------------
Re: updates
By: Acutedevelopers Date: March 19, 2020, 5:50 am
---------------------------------------------------------
2020/03/04
HTML https://twitter.com/lookner
HTML https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
HTML https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
HTML https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
HTML http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
HTML https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
SouthKorea,5328,33,45
Iran,2336,77,-
Italy,2502,79,140
WorldExChina,12817,222,285
ItalyExLVR : 12,10,11,45,44,34,12,81 too bad
SKoreaExD :
0301,Europe,1487,31,129 ; Europe-Italy,359,2,24
0302,Europe,2214,37,170 ; Europe-Italy,520,3,30
0303,Europe,
0304,Europe,3365,85,157 ; Europe-Italy,863,6,17
last 7 days
Hubei-Wuhan : 648,543,431,272,200,123,116
Wuhan : 2183,2096,1322,1008,603,489,391
SouthKorea-Daegu : 73,75,109,130,168,87,168,80,111
almost under control outside Daegu ; like China ex Wuhan
that looks to me as if it can be contained with "war against the
virus"
and no, South Korea is not communist,one party, draconian,lying
etc.
[what all had been said here and at flutrackers,twitter when
cases in
China started to decline ]
now, let's see what Italy is doing ... dorn't seem to be enough,
so far
Germany,France, ... they don't take it serious yet.
That probably means, what it will become much harder once they
start
to take it serious and there are lots of cases already. (IMO)
Euro12 : 17, 59, 77, 77,107,169,257,317,302,708,520,622
Euro12-Italy : 0, 0, 4, 1, 12, 26, 73, 79, 82,127,173,156
---------------------------------------------------------------
dax=11951(+0.9%),usa500=3034(+1.2%),euro=1.115
07:30UTC,dax=12001(+0.1%),dow=26300(+1.5%),gold=16
37(+0.1%),VIX=28
11:00UTC,dow=26469
Italy :
HTML http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1_1_1.jsp?menu=notizie&id=4153
ItalyExLVR : 12,10,11,45,44,34,12,81,110 too bad
#Post#: 154--------------------------------------------------
Re: updates
By: Acutedevelopers Date: March 19, 2020, 5:56 am
---------------------------------------------------------
2020/03/05
HTML https://twitter.com/lookner
HTML https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
HTML https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
HTML https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
HTML http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
HTML https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
HTML https://twitter.com/DataCoronavirus
[a forum like this is better than twitter : you can edit posts,
scrolling is easier, replies are
better organised; but you find things easier at twitter, twitter
is much bigger than TBM ]
[since today I can no longer access google spreadsheets without
registering]
SouthKorea 5766 35 27 25 88
Italy 3089 107 297 - 276
Iran 2922 92 - - 552
DiamondPrincess 706 6 34 - 40
Japan 319 6 29 - 10
France 285 4 15 - 12
Germany 262 0 - 2 16
Spain 202 2 7 - 2
UnitedStates 158 11 2 6 9
world-China,14973,273,421,47,1259
Italy has more deaths than Iran now
Hubei-Wuhan : 543,431,272,200,123,116,77
Wuhan : 2096,1322,1008,603,489,391,439 [slightly up !]
South Korea gives some extra tables now, e.g. by age,sex,region,
CFRs
Daegu=405,Gyeongbuk=89,rest=22 (!)
Soth Korea-Daegu-Gyeongbuknb= (135),34,32,56,57,93,36,64,19,22
stopping outbreaks is more difficult than preventing them
-----------------------------
BREAKING: Italy closing all schools and universities across the
country due to coronavirus - ANSA
------------------------------------
acute care hospital beds by country :
HTML https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESCrbl5XsAEfz4w?format=jpg&name=large
---------------------------------------
daily WHO : But at present, we see linked epidemics in several
countries, where most
cases can still be traced to known contacts or clusters of
cases, in, although we see
signs of community transmission in some countries.
Our view continues to be that containment of COVID-19 must be
the top priority
for all countries, but at the same time, countries should be
preparing for sustained
community transmission.
That’s why we’re suggesting a comprehensive approach.
With early, aggressive measures, countries can stop transmission
and save lives.
# there was community transmission in China, they still got it
down
----------------------------------------------
Germany , daily;(09:00 UTC) new COVID-19 cases Feb25-Mar08 by
federal(sub)country :
HTML https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19-F%C3%A4lle_in_Deutschland
[code]
BW, 1, 2, 3, 4, 4, 1, 4, 7, 18, 21, 26, 25, 66, 17
Ba, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 4, 6, 10, 13, 4, 27, 38, 31,108
Be, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 3, 3, 6, 9, 4, 12
Br, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 4
HB, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0
HH, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1, 5, 4, 1, 4
He, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 5, 2, 0, 0, 2, 1, 1, 1, 3
MV, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 3, 1, 1, 0, 2, 1
Ni, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 3, 6, 8, 1, 2, 12
NR, 1, 1, 2, 21, 5, 36, 20, 15, 10, 64,106, 65, 46, 92
RP, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 5, 1, 2, 5, 4
SL, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 2, 1
Sa, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 6
SA, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
SH, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 4, 1, 0, 1
Th, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0
De, 2, 3, 5, 27, 13, 51, 33, 38,
52,109,185,150,163,265[/code]
2020/03/05/08:00UTC,dax=12157,dow=26737,gold=1639
08:27,dax=12136,dow=26712 ; 08:29 ,12111,26700 ;
09:00,12098,26662
09:10,12033,26600
chart world-China , Feb22-Mar04 :
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/w-c0304.gif
increases more linear than exponential
----------------------------------------------
Ferguson : the battle [against COVID) is over, the world had
failed
[ the number of countries affected is so big now ]
# contradicting WHO,Tedros
# and China had already won the "war"
and Bruce Aylward gives this interview in British TV :
HTML https://www.channel4.com/news/coronavirus-who-expert-explains-mortality-rate-and-threat-to-kids-after-trip-to-wuhan
[Video ; "you can manage it" ]
#Post#: 155--------------------------------------------------
Re: updates
By: Acutedevelopers Date: March 19, 2020, 6:02 am
---------------------------------------------------------
2020/03/06
HTML https://twitter.com/lookner
HTML https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
HTML https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
HTML https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
HTML http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus%3Cbr%20/%3E/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
HTML http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01
HTML https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
HTML https://twitter.com/DataCoronavirus
I added a new Italy link, they stopped reporting Italy-region
numbers at the old link
Italy looks bad. ECDC/EU or better:China should help them
[code]Feb24-18, 222, 6, 1 , 172, 33, 18, 6
Feb25-12, 283, 7, 1 , 212, 38, 23, 18 12
Feb26-12, 374, 12, 1 , 258, 71, 30, 28 10
Feb26-18, 400, 12, 3 , 258, 71, 47, 39 11
Feb27-12, 528, 14, 42 , 305, 98, 97, 84 45
Feb28-18, 888, 21, 46 , 531,151,145,128 44
Mar01-18,1577, 34, 83 , 984,263,285,162 34
Mar02-18,1835, 52,149 ,1254,273,335,174 12
Mar03-18,2263, 79,160 ,1520,307,420,255 81
Mar04-18,2706,107,276 ,1820,360,544,365 110
Mar05-18,3296,148,414 ,2251,407,698,502 137[/code]
date,accumulated
cases,deaths,severe,Lombardy,Veneto,Reggio,other, other-daily
other than China, Italy does not report how many people are
being
isolated,concentrated,suspected, how many contacts are being
traced,
how many in medical observation
--------------------------------------
SouthKorea,6088,42,27,25,88
Italy,3858,148,351,-,414
Iran,3513,108,-,-,552
DiamondPrincess,696,6,34,-,40
France,423,7,23,-,12
Germany,400,0,-,2,17
Japan,350,6,29,-,10
Spain,248,3,7,-,2
UnitedStates,207,12,2,6,9
...
world-China,17339,344,484,47,1403
at what point will they seriously try to contain it ?
as China did. Or even discuss it and try it in some area.
I mean, you can't just let it run with
maybe 5-10% CFR when there are no hospital-places left.
They should try it now, what happens when you stop
hospitalization,
ahh - it's unethical . But letting some % of the population die
by
insufficient measuresn is totally ethical. the amount of ethics
is proportional to
the number of people killed/damaged, IMO, not so much the way
how it is being done.
---------------------------------------
world-China, daily new cases :
263,310,378,278,440,719,894,1388,1223,1895,1725,20 42,2036,2366
redoubles every 4 days ? but quite stable the last 5 days
------------------------------------------
Korea, daily new cases , Feb25-Mar07
[code]Dae,(442),057,178,340,297,741,514,512,520,405,321,366,391,
294
Gye,(186),039,043,053,073,075,045,110,061,089,087,117,065,032
All.(763),130,253,449,427,909,595,686,600,516,438,518,483,367
oth,(135),034,032,056,057,093,036,064,019,022,029,035,027,041[/c
ode]
---------------------------------------------------------------
Hubei-Wuhan : 431,272,200,123,116,77,54
Wuhan : 1322,1008,603,489,391,439,400
19758 still in hospital (max was 44000 on Feb19)
an additional 21000 are still under medical observation (max was
77000 on Feb14)
------------------------------------------------------
US-cases :
HTML https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
-------------------------------------------------------
HTML https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1.full.pdf
average incubation = 5days ; 95% under 12days
2ary attack rate = 9.6% ; 14.9% in household
attack rate in children same as adults
patients taking many weeks to die or recover.
9% have symptoms-onset >14days
----------------------------------------
The neuroinvasive potential of SARS‐CoV2 may be at least
partially responsible
for the respiratory failure of COVID‐19 patients
--------------------------------------------
2020/03/06/08:12,dax=11737,dow=25895 ; 11670(-2.3%),25854(-1.0%)
09:30,11634,25779 ; 10:00, 11534,2553310:40,11470,25395
es gibt kein halten teotwawki
Iran reports 1234 new cases, 16 deaths
#Post#: 156--------------------------------------------------
Re: updates
By: Acutedevelopers Date: March 19, 2020, 6:35 am
---------------------------------------------------------
2020/03/07
HTML https://twitter.com/lookner
HTML https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
HTML https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
HTML https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
HTML http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
HTML http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01
HTML https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
HTML https://twitter.com/DataCoronavirus
SouthKorea,6593,42,27,25,108
Iran,4747,124,-,-,913
Italy,4636,197,462,-,523
DiamondPrincess,696,6,34,-,40
Germany,639,0,-,2,17
France,613,9,23,-,12
world,101622,3484,6087,49,57,328
China,80651,3070,5489,-,55404
world-China,20971,414,598
dow=25855,dax=11549
Italy , daily new cases Feb25-Mar07
[code]Lom,(172),040,046,000,047,226,453,270,266,300,431,361,808,
768
Ven,(033),005,033,000,027,063,112,010,034,053,047,081,055,127
Reg,(018),005,007,017,050,048,140,050,085,124,154,172,140,170
Oth,(006),012,010,011,045,044,034,012,081,110,137,164,244,426[/c
ode]
----big increase in Lombardia today (Mar07)
----------------------------------------------
it seems to slow down in most regions. The increase doesn't look
exponential
as you would expect at the start of epidemics.
I have the feeling that this is mainly due to people's
awareness, they are more
careful when the situation gets worse and it's all over the
media.
China,Singapore,Japan,South Korea,[Italy]
------------------------------------------------
world-China ,
263,310,378,278,440,719,894,1388,1223,1895,1725,20
42,2036,2366,3632
172,331,337,377,342,579,937,1094,1387,1775,1640,25
47,2163,2616,3770
the recent increase here is largely due to increased testing in
Iran and multiple
new countries
---------------------------------------------------------
Hubei-Wuhan , 273,200,123,116,77,54,46
Wuhan,1108,603,489,391,431,400,376
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hmmmm, the CDC is banning all nonessential travel . . .
is it true ? Seems to be an "advice" , not a "ban"
-----------------------------------------------
The World Health Organization warned Thursday that a "long list"
of countries were
not showing "the level of political commitment" needed to "match
the level of the
threat we all face".
"This is not a drill," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told
reporters.
"This epidemic is a threat for every country, rich and poor."
HTML https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---5-march-2020
# why to give the case numbers in the talk ? they are on the
webpages
# otoh, he should talk about the costs, give numbers and how the
experts calculate
# that it's worth it. What did it cost China, what will it
likely cost USA, what political and
# constitutional changes are required , and how do the likely
outcomes compare
# where is the WHO radio and TV -station that reports 24/7 about
COVID ?
# These daily Tedros transcripts don't do it. WHO isn't taking
this seriously
----------------------------------------------
which country gives the number of daily new cases by region in a
daily updated table
so we can easily see the trend ? Also the # of tests or
suspected.
Don't just give cumulative numbers, the reporters won't grasp it
("increasing").
The websites (wiki,jodi,BNO,...) are much better than the
health-agencies, including WHO.
-----------------------------------------------------
WHO should publish a list, where they rate each country's
response !!!
#Post#: 157--------------------------------------------------
Re: updates
By: Acutedevelopers Date: March 19, 2020, 6:40 am
---------------------------------------------------------
2020/03/08
HTML https://twitter.com/lookner
HTML https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
HTML https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
HTML https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
HTML http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
HTML http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01
HTML https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
HTML https://twitter.com/DataCoronavirus
China,80695,3097,5264,-,57065
SouthKorea,7134,50,-,36,118
Iran,5823,145,-,-,1669
Italy,5883,233,462,-,589
Germany,800,0,-,2,17
DiamondPrincess,696,7,33,-,40
France,949,16,21,-,12
Lombardia with 808 cases, too bad.
Hubei-Wuhan , 200,123,116,77,54,46,37
Wuhan , 603,489,391,439,400,376,341
Italy,Korea,Germany are being updated in the posts above
world-China , 21,89,85,114,101,121,81,
172,331,337,377,342,579,937,
1094,1387,1776,1640,2548,2162,2607,
3810,3971
South Korea's official webpage is not yet updated, but here is a
press-release:
HTML https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200308000400320
if that were the total for yesterday, (often they have 2 reports
per day)
then that looks good. It were starting slowly to decrease and
the decrease would
have started 1-2 weeks ago if we consider case-counts by
disease-onset rather
than by reported confirmation - as seen in China.
daily new cases in South Korea :
130,253,449,427,909.595,686,600,516,438,518,483 ,367?
this is a bit deranged by the massive testing of the
sect-members
----------------------------------------------------------------
----
HTML https://www.twoeggz.com/info/364630.html
Although the number of new confirmed cases in a single day has
been slowly decreasing,
the current epidemic situation in South Korea is still very
serious.
----------------------------------------------------------------
-----
The White House overruled health officials who wanted to
recommend that elderly
and physically fragile Americans avoid flying on commercial
airlines
----------------------------------------------------
HTML https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/07-03-2020-who-statement-on-cases-of-covid-19-surpassing-100-000
> China and other countries
what other countries ? South Korea ? WHO should name them
> are demonstrating that spread of the virus can be slowed and
impact reduced through
> the use of universally applicable actions, such as working
across society to identify
> people who are sick, bringing them to care, following up on
contacts, preparing hospitals
> and clinics to manage a surge in patients, and training health
workers.
that's all ? What about traffic, closures, extended holidays,
fever screening,..
And I do not see how preparing hospitals, training health
workers reduces the spread.
Well, it may motivate people to report their illness, but it may
also motivate them
to be less careful. What about the old people, high severety
risk, shouldn't they isolate
at home to reduce hospital burdon
WHO messages are too general, not specific enough, IMO
----------------------------------
test costs $100 (in "SK") , 7% positivity rate ,
------------------------------------
Queensland's disaster management authorities have gone into "war
mode" [14 cases]
---------------------------------------
WHO should get someone else for the pressers. Tedros is too
naive, emotional,
lacks expertise, isn't been taken serious.
The message is "war" against the virus (so declared by China and
South Korea
with good results) and Tedros isn't the type of field-marshal,
so to speak. More the pope-like type.
WHO uses lengthy wording, pharmacy-like pictures,
happy-faces-advertisements.
It was different with H5N1, with Chan.
--------------------------------------------------
South Korea :
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/kor0308.GIF
not really going down, they reduced testing ; but stable
#Post#: 158--------------------------------------------------
Re: updates
By: Acutedevelopers Date: March 19, 2020, 6:44 am
---------------------------------------------------------
2020/03/09
HTML https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
HTML https://virusncov.com/
HTML https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
HTML https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
HTML http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
HTML http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01
HTML https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
Italy,7375,366,462,-,622
SouthKorea,7313,50,-,36,130
Iran,6566,194,-,-,2134
France,1209,19,21,-,12
Germany,1040,0,-,2,18
world-China,29052,705,576,61,3581 ; deaths/cases=2.4%
Hubei-Wuhan,77,54,46,37
Wuhan,439,400,376,341 , inHospital=15826 , observed=13211
Apr15=SouthKorea general election
world-China , daily new cases : weekly factor:3.7,4.2,2.9 ;
redoubles every 4 days
21,89,85,114,101,121,81,
172,331,337,377,342,579,937,
1094,1387,1776,1640,2548,2162,2622,
3794,3983,(3713 so far),
HTML https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/05/science.aba9757
effect of travel restriction
25% of infections during the presymptomatic phase
twoeggz.com usually has the Korean numbers some hours earlier
South Korea : "The outbreak has slowed down", Kim Kwang-li,
[cases] declining and bed supply is increasing
I want exactly the same measures that Korea has taken here.
Excluding that Shincheonji stuff, luckily we have no Shincheonji
--------------------------
no WHO press update since Mar05
stupid WHO-tweets, pics without info, no studies, no experts, no
data
ged rid of Tedros _now_. Speed is everything
the World Health Organisation, WHO, debunked the rumour of
spices preventing
coronavirus infection,
--------------------------
China’s Offers Experience in Europe’s Fight Against COVID-19
----------------------------
updated
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/kor0308.GIF
07:30UTC, dax=10460(-9.4% !) , dow=24563(-5.0%),
gold=1683,oil=33.9(-25.6% !)
oil=33.5 now ; Brent=$33.9,WTI=$30.0 (-28%)
HTML https://www.ariva.de/chart/images/chart.png?z=a101622823~b172~o285~wfree~Uyear~W0~z620
Opec und die mit ihm kooperierenden Staaten haben es nicht
geschafft,
sich auf neue Kürzungen der Rohölförderung
OPEC failed to find an agreement about oil-production
-------------
08:09,10609,25566,euro=114.25,gold=1682,oil=34.75( Brent)
MIB-Italy=19984(-3.9%)
HTML https://www.borsaitaliana.it/borsa/indici/indici-in-continua/dettaglio.html?indexCode=FTSEMIB
08:30-UTC,MIB=19651,-5.5%,DAX=10735(-7.3%),DOW=24568(-5.0%
against Friday-close)
Brent-oil=35.8(-21%)
*****************************************************
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