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#Post#: 148--------------------------------------------------
March 19, expert prediction survey
By: gsgs Date: March 19, 2020, 3:58 am
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HTML https://works.bepress.com/mcandrew/2/
18 US-experts
1. Experts predict a three-fold rise in reported cases in the US
over the next week.
2. The average probability that experts assigned to a “second
wave” of COVID
occurring in the fall months (Aug.-Dec.) of 2020 was 73%.
3. Experts anticipate 19 US states will report more than 100
cases of COVID-19
within one week (80% uncertainty interval: 10-36 states).
4. Experts believe that only 12% (80% uncertainty interval:
4-34%) of all SARS-CoV-2 infections
(symptomatic and asymptomatic) in the US were reported by COVID
Tracker as of Sunday,
March 15th. This implies that as of the beginning of this week
there were between
10,329 and 87,800 undiagnosed infections of SARS-CoV-2 in the
US.
5. Experts believe COVID-19 will be responsible for around
195,000 deaths
(approximate 80% uncertainty interval: 19,000-1,200,000) in the
US by the end of 2020.
#Post#: 170--------------------------------------------------
Re: March 19, expert prediction survey
By: gsgs Date: March 20, 2020, 3:43 am
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HTML https://www.covid.is/data
Iceland, Mar14-Mar18
deCODE-tests,956,1416,855,460,903
deCODE-positive,9,10,4,3,7
NUHI-tests,323,119,291,545,420
NUHI-positive,24,11,8,46,66
deCODE : 0.7% positive , NUHI : 9.1% positive
~1% of the population infected in Europe-Italy and USA ,
and _not_ the 0.02% estimated by experts here :
HTML https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/ex...iction-survey/
or what am I missing ?
~20-fold underreporting ,
that would mean for Wuhan with 50000 confirmed cases and 2500
deaths
that ~10% of Wuhan was infected and 0.25% of these died
for USA the estimate for a wave would be 77500 deaths
not more than the severe 2017/2018 flu-season and the
expected lost life-years were even a lot smaller
"just the flu" after all ?!?
there could be lots of underreported deaths in Wuhan and the
underreporting may change
during the wave, Iceland is just at the start
In Lombardy and Quom we may have 10% of the population infected
already
they are at least 2 weeks ahead of Iceland
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