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#Post#: 124--------------------------------------------------
puzzled
DIR By: gsgs
Date: February 19, 2020, 7:08 pm
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puzzled
February 16th, 2020, 01:52 PM
I'm totally puzzled, what's going on.
It's obvious since ~Feb09 that cases in China are going down
and it becomes clearer every day.
Still flubies and experts and health officials and most
reporters are ignoring this
and talk as if the pandemic thread were the same as in early
Feb.
Why should Singapore or Japan or UK be a problem with just a few
cases
when China could handle it with thousands of cases ?
February 16th, 2020, 02:29 PM
there are lots of papers that estimate the Chinese
underreporting. Outside Hubei it
was a factor of 1.4 afair in a recent paper.
But it doesn't matter, we just observe the trend, not the total
numbers.
Why should the underreporting have changed ? And in a way to
produce
a stable downtrend ?
And no, you can't produce this deliberately. In all the
provinces.
And the reporters are especially WHO do trust the numbers,
reproduce them.
And those who talk about it do acknowledge that they are going
down,
just that it's commonly ignored/avoided.
Well, some reporters say they are still going up, but they mean
the cumulative
numbers which of course are increasing.
China ex Hubei ~1.5
Hubei ex Wuhan ~1.9
Wuhan~19 (Jan.29)
I read recently.
for the trend underreporting doesn't matter, unless they
systematically change the level of underreporting over time
Statistical Inference for Coronavirus Infected Patients in Wuhan
Yong-Dao Zhou1, Jianghu (James) Dong2, *1
HTML https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...774v1.full.pdf
February 18th, 2020, 02:53 PM
you may remember Helen Branswell from our H5N1 discussions,
she writes (good) COVID articles now :
HTML https://www.statnews.com/staff/helen-branswell/
Now I found that at twitter on Feb/09 she drew the chart of
daily new cases in China and wrote:
> Chart of daily increases. Don't read too much into the
decline; not sure what it means.
Well, it means no pandemic (yet).
On the same day I wrote in the German forum here :
let's get on our knees to praise this rare luck. While the
wording was from a German
comedian, I was serious about it and it did express my feeling
at that time.
The days after Jan.24 it had looked very bad to me .
So, why was Branswell so relaxed, indifferent ? She did seem to
trust the Chinese numbers,
lists them frequently, discusses Chinese studies, saw many other
epidemic charts before.
The numbers continued to go down but she didn't comment (afaics)
In her articles,tweets after Feb.9 she still sounded concerned,
didn't mention the decline.
I'm puzzled.
February 18th, 2020, 03:17 PM
yesterday Zhong Nanshang estimates that the epidemic may
stabilize by the end of April
He expects the peak in China by the end of February.
But that won't necessarily be the trend reversal.
He had earlier said on Feb02
I haven't looked at the data this morning
The number is rising now and the rising trend will continue for
some time, but I'm sure it won't be long
On Jan.28 he said:
The novel coronavirus outbreak may reach its peak in the next 10
to 14 days,
and we didn't believe it. But the numbers now show it.
said on Sunday, amending his previous prediction on Jan 28 that
the epidemic would
peak in seven or 10 days.
Prolonging the Spring Festival holidays, controlling traffic,
temperature checks and education
as well as other government measures have effectively cut off
the source of infection and
greatly reduced the spread of the virus,
------------------------------
so, why does he now say it peaks end Feb, when it had already
peaked ?
As he had predicted.
It would go up for a second peak ?
Maybe due to people returning to work ? No, he said that would
probably have little impact.
So what is it ?
And then it will peak and not go down after that until late
April ???
I'm puzzled
==========================================
I found this :
Feb18, Human-to-human transmission has not been stopped in
Wuhan: Zhong Nanshan
Zhong Nanshan on Tuesday warned the public to keep their waste
pipes unobstructed as the novel coronavirus may spread through
drainage systems.
Xinhua, Feb.12 , Zhong Nanshan said the epidemic peak should
appear in mid-to-late February,
but the inflection point is still undetermined.
Zhong Nanshan on Feb.12
HTML http://www.ecns.cn/news/society/2020...h6522839.shtml
they show the same picture as in the Feb.17 article , so did he
say this
already on Feb.12 and just recalled it on Feb17 without looking
at the new data
in all his traveling stress ?
Maybe just only adding the April-forecast after speaking with
the modeler
[see below]
> The much-anticipated turning point of the novel coronavirus
outbreak cannot be prediced
5 days later on Feb17 he could predict it
> There is a mathematics model, which is continuously being
rectified according to the real
> situation, and climate factors are being considered.
aha, some secret Chinese math. modeling software program
which includes climate factors. Something that Western
researchers claim
to be impossible
> Currently the new confirmed cases show a decreasing trend, and
the mathematics
> model predicted that the turning point will arrive in mid- or
late-February in southern China,
## at that time it had already peaked in Southern China.
## but only a few datapoints available, so with statistical
uncertainety, "errorbar"
## they may have required the common 95% statistical errorbar
## and the April national prediction may be because it includes
Wuhan,
## which "Southern China" does not
HTML https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...hina_map-1.png
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