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#Post#: 101--------------------------------------------------
case numbers
By: gsgs Date: February 12, 2020, 3:15 am
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some daily time series, which I think are important
to decide whether they can contain it
Time series which can be easily updated in this very first post
in the thread
Jan.25-Feb.25
=======================
Feb.10-Feb.14, daily new cases, old method only
Hubei_old,2097,1638,1508,1728,1282,955
Wuhan_old,1552,1104,1072,1330,1001,?
H-W_old , 545,534, 436, 398, 281,?
hospitalised in Hubei on that day , Feb10-Feb14
25087,26121,33693,36719,38107-including 8309 with the new
diagnosis
the data is no longer given since Feb.15
==============================
because to the classification changes in Hubei I add "confirmed+
2 type of suspected" (both translated to suspected by google)
since Feb14
-----------------------------------------------
Hubei ex Wuhan , daily new conformed+suspected+suspected
Feb14-Feb29:
4475,4015,3669,3050,2208,1647,1886
1326,1247,1075,889,720,648,543
431,272
------------------------------------------------------
Wuhan , daily new conformed+suspected+suspected Feb14-Feb29:
4695,4107,3999,3739,3543,3038,4118
4655,3377,2543,2275,2059,2183,2096
1322,1008
---------------------------------------
Hubei ex Wuhan, daily new reported confirmed cases Jan25-Feb28:
277,291,399,525,678,842,771,
1027,1070,1103,1189,1221,946,856*,
768,697,545,534,436*=1404,913,497,
295,243,207,33,-266,312,52
89,50,35,31,26,5,3
*: change of definition
-----------------------------------------
China ex Hubei , daily new confirmed cases Jan.25-:
365,398,480,619,705,761,752,
678,722,890,728,707,696,558,
509,444,381,377,312,267,221
166,115,79,56,45,258,31
18,11,9,5
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China ex Hubei, daily new suspected cases Jan.25-
* since Feb.12 Hubei ex Wuhan
----,----,----,----,----,----,----,
1956,1913,1890,2014,2098,2211,2141,
1849,1736,1722,1657,757*,681,709
645,571,448,362,397,300,198
177,132,91,69
-----------------------------------------
beeing treated in hospital, Hubei, Jan.25-
----,----,2567,3349,4334,5486,6738,
8565,9618,10990,12627,14314,15804,19835,
20993,22160,25087,26121,33693*,36719,38107,
39447,40814,41937,43471,43745,42056,41036
40127,39073,37896,36242
---------------------------------------------
severe cases in hospital on that day , Hubei, Jan.25-
----,----,690,899,988,1094,1294,
1562,1701,2143,2520,3084,4002,5195,
5247,5505,6344,7241,7084*,9638,10152,
10396,9797,10970,11246,11178,10997,10892
10428,9430,8675,8326
--------------------------------------
under observation, Hubei, Jan.25-
6904,9103,15559,20336,26632,32340,36838,
43121,56088,58544,66764,64127,64057,67802,
70438,73127,76207,77195,77308*,77685,77323,
74261,71613,69270,68345,65525,63126,62787
61181,58575,53474,49438
here the charts for 5 time-series: (Jan.25-Feb.22)
[img]
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/tbm22.GIF[/img]
by province and Hubei-cities:
HTML https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/actual-epidemic-charts/hubei-vs-rest-of-china/
#Post#: 113--------------------------------------------------
Re: case numbers
By: epsilon Date: February 14, 2020, 5:43 pm
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Deaths and severe cases doubling period roughly 3 days during
the early, exponential phase.
I think this gives us a good, rather unbiased proxy of actual
epidemic doubling time.
After all, when assessing doubling periods it does not matter if
there is systemtic under-counting of cases (i.e. if cases are
off by a certain fixed factor) the doubling time will be the
same.
Also consistent with latest research.
Former research (Leung et. al) used to rely on case doubling
estimates of 7 days.
Many people have difficulty understanding nature of exponential
growth.
Case doubling of 3 days, means: epidemic is one thousnad times
larger after just 4 weeks and one million times larger after 8
weeks.
#Post#: 116--------------------------------------------------
Re: case numbers
By: gsgs Date: February 16, 2020, 6:16 pm
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I'd say 4 days. In the very first phase in late Jan. they listed
cases which they were trying to cover up
until ~Jan.20
#Post#: 125--------------------------------------------------
Re: case numbers
By: gsgs Date: February 19, 2020, 8:45 pm
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[code]
confirmed cured deaths Confirmed Severe
Discharged Deaths Confirmed suspect Suspect
----------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------
02-12,14840,13436, 802,538, 242,216, 43455,30043, 7084,5426,
3441,1915, 1310,1036, 48206,32994, 1377,620, 9028,4904
02-13, 4823, 3910, 690,370, 116, 88, 46806,32959, 9278,7492,
3862,2016, 1318,1016, 51986,35991, 1154,473, 6169,2585
02-14, 2420, 1923, 912,486, 139,107, 48175,34289, 10152,8335,
4774,2502, 1457,1123, 54406,37914, 1216,507, 5534,2265
02-15, 1843, 1548, 849,413, 139,110, 49030,35314, 10396,8530,
5623,2915, 1596,1233, 56249,39462, 1036,391, 5243,2168
02-16, 1933, 1690, 1016,543, 100, 76, 49847,36385, 9797,8056,
6639,3458, 1696,1309, 58182,41152, 909,338, 4826,1971
02-17, 1807, 1600, 1223,761, 93, 72, 50338,37152, 10970,9222,
7862,4219, 1789,1381, 59989,42752, 788,340, 4194,1799
02-18, 1693, 1660, 1266,676, 132,116, 50633,38020, 11246,9562,
9128,4895, 1921,1497, 61682,44412, 596,234, 3462,1649
02-19, 349, 615, 1209,553, 108, 88, 49665,37994,
11178,9689,10337,5448, 2029,1585, 62013,45027, 880,483,
3456,1940
conf,cure,dead,con2,sev2,+disc,+dead,+conf,susp,+susp
newly confirmed cases
newly cured cases
new death cases
confirmed cases
severe cases among them
total discharged patients
total deaths
total confirmed cases
new suspected cases
suspected cases
; Hubei,Wuhan
02-19,279 corrected
[/code]
#Post#: 134--------------------------------------------------
Re: case numbers
By: gsgs Date: February 24, 2020, 10:14 pm
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South Korea
HTML https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
02-18,09265,021,10,000,0,09234,00957,08277
02-19,10411,034,12,000,0,10365,01030,09335
02-20,12161,082,16,066,1,12079,01633,10446
02-21,14816,156,16,139,1,14660,02707,11953
02-22,19621,346,17,327,2,19275,05481,13794
02-23,22633,556,18,534,4,22077,06039,16038
02-24,28615,763,18,738,7,27852,08725,19127
02-25,36716,893,22,863,8,35823,13273,22550
total
confirmed
discharged
isolated
deaths
suspected
being tested
negative
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