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#Post#: 5--------------------------------------------------
Jan 2020
By: gsgs Date: January 29, 2020, 5:52 pm
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Jan.24: Jeff Hogan
many are concerned about the possibility of a new pandemic,
and that is not outside the realm of possibility, according to
Jeff Hogan,
a professor and infectious disease expert at the University of
Georgia,
who studied the SARS coronavirus extensively.
HTML https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200124/Coronavirus-could-turn-into-a-new-pandemic.aspx
However, good old-fashioned public health measures such as
quarantine, handwashing,
surveillance of travelers and the use of advanced respiratory
protection for healthcare workers
was sufficient to end the pandemic in 2003 and are almost
certain to do the same
with the current outbreak."
While WHO and other authorities have not declared this a
pandemic, I do expect this type
of announcement unless the rate of new cases begins to decline
rapidly in the next 7-10 days."
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Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as
they warn of possible
sustained global spread
By Helen Branswell @HelenBranswell
January 26, 2020
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Jan.26 , Dr. Allison McGeer , Toront , infectious diseases
specialist
“The more we learn about it, the greater the
possibility is that transmission will not be able
to be controlled with public health measures,”
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Jan.26 , Neil Ferguson , Imperial college
Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around
the world,
we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic
isn’t possible,”
[having issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak]
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Jan.26 , Dr. Nancy Messonnier, CDC
transmission of the virus within the United States may be on the
horizon.
“We’re leaning far forward. And we
have been every step of the way with an
aggressive stance to everything we can do in the
U.S.,”
“And yet those of us who have been around long
enough know that everything we do
might not be enough to stop this from spreading in the
U.S.”
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Jan.26 , Trevor Bedford , computational biologist
estimates are sobering and point to continued spread.
“If it’s not contained shortly, I
think we are looking at a pandemic,”
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Jan.26 , Dr. Tom Inglesby, Johns Hopkins School of Public
Health,
urged countries to start planning to deal with global spread of
the new virus.
Such plans need to include far more aggressive efforts to
develop a vaccine than
have already been announced
“I’m not making a prediction that
it’s going to happen,” Inglesby said,
though he noted
the mathematical modeling, the statements from Chinese
authorities, and the sharply
rising infection numbers make a case for this possible outcome.
“I think just based on
those pieces of limited information, it’s
important for us to begin some planning around
the possibility that this won’t be
contained.”
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Oct.2019 , Eric Toner, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security
last year modeled what would happen if a deadly
coronavirus reached a pandemic scale. His simulated scenario
predicted that 65
million people could die within 18 months.
The virus in Toner’s simulation would be resistant
to any modern vaccine.
It would be deadlier than SARS, but about as easy to catch as
the flu.
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Jan.24 , Guan Yi virologist , (SARS,2003) :
A bigger outbreak is certain,”
“conservatively, – that this outbreak
could be 10 times
bigger than the SARS epidemic because that virus was transmitted
by only a few
“super spreaders” in a more defined
part of the country.
“We have passed through the ‘golden
period’ for prevention and control,
“What’s more, we’ve got
the holiday traffic rush and a dereliction of duty from certain
officials.
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Jan.26 , Dr Eric Feigl-Ding health expert at Harvard University
HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is
that reproductive
R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen
an actual virality coefficient
outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not
exaggerating...
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Jan.24 Jonathan M. Read, Jessica R.E. Bridgen, Derek A.T.
Cummings, Antonia Ho, Chris P.Jewell
Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics,
Lancaster Medical School,
Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute,
University of Florida,
Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus
Research, Glasgow,
Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan
city are unlikely to be
effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99
percent effective reduction
in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be
reduced by 24.9 percent,"
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Jan.24 Theodore Standiford , professor of medicine ,interim
chief Division of Pulmonary
and Critical Care Medicine.
“Also, the risk for pandemic spread of the virus
has been minimized by the early
actions of the Chinese health authorities, WHO and CDC,
including prompt closure
of the site where the infection originated
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Jan.24 , Dr.Willaim Schaffner ,professor of preventive medicine
and health policy , Vanderbilt
“When we think about the relative danger of this
new coronavirus and influenza, there’s
just no comparison,Coronavirus will be a blip on the horizon in
comparison. The risk is trivial.”
“Familiarity breeds indifference,Because
it’s new, it’s mysterious and comes
from an exotic
place, the coronavirus creates anxiety.”
The U.S. dodged a bullet with SARS,
[this is out of context, leaving out : "by the end of the season
(... the risk is trivial)" ]
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Jan.28 , Xinhua , Prof. Zhong Nanshan , expert for respiratory
diseases
Es ist sehr schwer konkret abzuschätzen, wann der Ausbruch
seinen Höhepunkt
erreichen wird. Aber ich denke, circa einer Woche bis etwa 10
Tagen wird es soweit sein.
Danach wird es keine Steigerung mehr geben“.
Nachdem die Menschen aus den Ferien zurückkehren wird es keine
Massenerkrankungen
geben. Dennoch müssen Vorsorge- und Erkennungsmaßnahmen strikt
fortgesetzt werden.“
Der Ausbruch des SARS Virus dauerte etwa sechs Monate, aber ich
denke nicht,
dass der Ausbruch des neuartigen Coronavirus lange anhalten
wird. China hat eine
Reihe wirksamer Maßnahmen ergriffen, insbesondere die
Früherkennung und die
frühzeitige Isolation. „Wir sind zuversichtlich, einen
schweren Ausbruch oder ein
erneutes Auftreten zu verhindern, solange diese beiden
wichtigsten Maßnahmen
eingehalten werden. Allerdings brauchen wir Wissenschaftler noch
Zeit, den Virus
genauer zu erforschen und nach einem geeigneten Medikament zu
suchen.
„Mit Hilfe aus dem ganzen Land wird Wuhan es schaffen, die
Krise zu bewältigen.“
[is he saying what he really thinks or what China wants him to
say ? ,
compare with Guan Yi from Hong Kong , Jan.24]
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2020/01/28
Experts from Hong Kong today said sustained novel coronavirus
(2019-nCoV)
transmission is under way in China's largest cities, putting the
world on the verge
of a global epidemic
At a media briefing in Hong Kong today, experts from the
University of Hong Kong (HKU)
estimated that the number of cases in Wuhan as of Jan 25 was
dramatically higher than
the country's official totals and may be as high as 44,000. They
also estimated that the
city's cases will double over the next 6 days.
Media reports detailed the estimates from Gabriel Leung, MD,
MPH, and Joseph Wu, PhD,
both with the HKU medical school. The scientists also posted
their slide presentation
on HKU's website.
They said that about 25,000 people in Wuhan are likely
symptomatic and the others
are still in the incubation period.
They warned 2019-nCoV may be about to become a global epidemic
and that sustained
human-to-human spread is already occurring in major Chinese
cities.
The experts added, however, that quarantines would have limited
impact. Leung and Wu urged areas with the closest travel links
to China to be ready to deploy their preparedness plans on short
notice.
Based on outbreak data and train, air, and road travel from
Wuhan—which is central China's transportation
hub—they said Chongqing could be the next most
affected city, becaue of its strong transport ties to Wuhan.
They said outbreaks in Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou,
and Shenzhen could peak in April or May and gradually slow in
June and July.
China's nCoV cases pass MERS total
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~Jan28, Mike Ryan ,WHO
"We are at an important juncture in this event. We believe these
chains of transmission
can still be interrupted,"
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Jan.29 , Rolf Hilgenfeld , Professor Luebeck, Coronavirus expert
"These RNA viruses are self-limiting. That means after a certain
time,
most people have developed antibodies against the virus, even
though they
did not fall sick. Then they are immune against the infection.
These outbreaks typically end by themselves after a couple of
months",
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2020/01/26 , Dr.Theresa Tam, Canada’s Chief Public Health
Officer
With no active spread of the virus in Canada, and a diminishing
number of travellers from
China, Tam repeated the mantra that the risk to Canadians
“remains low.”
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2020/01/30 , Peter Sandman, risk communication
questioning the “no reason for alarm” messaging.
“Officials and experts are alarmed already — reason
enough for the public to gird
up its loins as well,” .
“Worry is about the future. Telling people not to worry
about an emerging infectious
disease because it isn’t a significant risk here and now
is foolish,”
“Given the real possibility that the coronavirus might
start spreading locally in
North American cities, now is the right time to worry and
prepare, at least emotionally
and perhaps logistically as well.”
Masks may or may not prove to be useful,. “In case they do
turn out useful,
buying them now is provident, not panicky.”
More importantly, suggesting people are foolish to worry about
an emerging infectious
disease is patronizing, “when what is needed is
empathy.”
Officials and the media should focus more “on the high
likelihood that things will get
worse and the not-so-small possibility they will get much
worse,”.
“I think there is little need to ameliorate public
over-reaction now. The bigger need is to
reduce public over-reaction later to predictable bad news that
will take people by surprise
insofar as they weren’t sufficiently forewarned and
didn’t get enough chance to
rehearse emotionally.”
#Post#: 270--------------------------------------------------
Re: Jan 2020
By: gsgs Date: December 31, 2020, 7:53 am
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At the the time, Prof John Oxford told @BBCRadio4
"I'm not worried at all. I really am not. It's very small
numbers we're dealing with here.
I'd be more worried about measles..." (on 23 Jan 2020)
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