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#Post#: 42--------------------------------------------------
Feb.2020
DIR By: gsgs
Date: February 2, 2020, 6:35 pm
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Fauci, 2020/02/01, NY-Times
“It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going
to be a pandemic,”
“But will it be catastrophic? I don’t know.”
In the early days of the 2009 flu pandemic, “they were talking
about Armageddon in Mexico,”
But it turned out to not be that severe.”
Still, asymptomatic carriers “are not normally major drivers of
epidemics,”
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2020/02/01, Dr.Thomas Frieden ,former CDC director
It is “increasingly unlikely that the virus can be contained,"
“It is therefore likely that it will spread, as flu and other
organisms do, but we still
don’t know how far, wide or deadly it will be.”
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020/02/01 Dr.Peter Piot ,London school of Hygiene and Tropical
Medicine
“This looks far more like H1N1’s spread than SARS, and I am
increasingly alarmed,”
“Even 1 percent mortality would mean 10,000 deaths in each
million people.”
----------------------------------------------------------
2020/02/01 , Dr. W. Ian Lipkin, Columbia Univ.
although the virus is clearly being transmitted through casual
contact, labs are still
behind in processing samples.
But life in China has radically changed in the last two weeks.
Streets are deserted, public
events are canceled, and citizens are wearing masks and washing
their hands,
All of that may have slowed down what lab testing indicated was
exponential growth
in the infection.
I know of one lab running 5,000 samples a day, which might
produce some false-positive results,
inflating the count. “You can’t possibly do quality control at
that rate,”
-----------------------------------------------
2020/02/01 , Schaffner
At the moment, it seems unlikely that the virus will spread
widely in countries with vigorous,
alert public health systems,
“Every doctor in the U.S. has this top of mind,” Any patient
with fever or respiratory problems
will get two questions. ‘Have you been to China? Have you had
contact with anyone who has?’
If the answer is yes, they’ll be put in isolation right away.”
“In God we trust,” Dr. Schaffner said. “All others must provide
data.”
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2012/02/01 , Dr.Mike Ryan, WHO
There is still reason to believe the growing coronavirus
outbreak in China can be contained,
some evidence that the disease may not be spreading as rapidly
as is feared.
[downplayed reports that people infected with the virus may be
contagious before
they show symptoms]
“Until [containment] is impossible, we should keep trying,”
The gargantuan efforts China is making to try to halt the spread
of the virus is buying the
rest of the world “precious lead time” to prepare for the
possibility they might have to cope
with it as well, We need to thank China for that opportunity.”
“That is not to say that the disease won’t get ahead of the
Chinese authorities completely
or get ahead of the other countries that are containing it,” But
there’s enough evidence to
suggest that this virus can still be contained.”
For instance, data from some studies in China looking at how
much transmission occurs
when the virus gets introduced into a household suggests the
secondary attack rate —
the number of people the first case infects — isn’t that high.
“But that’s obviously a few
studies across a very large event,”
There haven’t been many reports of health worker infections, a
feature that fueled the
earlier outbreaks of SARS and MERS,
Likewise, there has not been a lot of spread from cases
discovered in other countries
in tourists from China or people returning from China.
the problem isn’t testing reagents — the country has indicated
it has adequate supplies —
but the sheer number of tests that need to be run.
So there are clear indications obviously that the disease
numbers are growing.
But there is also some contradictory evidence as well that
doesn’t completely align with
the kinds of R0s that are being estimated,”
(what circumstances would lead the WHO to declare this event a
pandemic )-That kind of discussion, would be a distraction.
“If that becomes the discussion, then we’re all going to lose
focus,”
We have to remain laser-focused on containment and slowing down
the spread of disease.”
“Almost all of the mortality is in the over 40s,” and a strong
preponderance of males.”
the data the WHO are seeing suggests some people who have been
publicly labeled “
asymptomatic” were actually already experiencing some symptoms.
“We still believe, looking at the data, that the force of
infection here, the major driver,
is people who are symptomatic, unwell, and transmitting to
others along the
human-to-human route,” That is the pressure wave.”
surprised by the speed with which the outbreak has taken off.
For me it’s been unusual to see a new disease emerge and, on the
face of it,
move so quickly,” If the scientists studying the genetic
sequences of the viruses are right
and the outbreak began sometime in late November or early
December, “then this is a very
rapid emergence and very rapid infection of a lot of people.”
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb-07, Beverley Paterson, Australian epidemiologist who works
with governments to
prepare for pandemics.
The answer to whether a pandemic will happen, unfortunately, is
probably “yes.”
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb-07 , Lawrence Gostin, a public health law professor at
Georgetown University.
Travel bans and quarantines are a centuries-old answer to the
spread of disease.
They’re also exactly what the World Health Organization asked
everyone not to do.
The same WHO committee that recommended calling the virus a
Public Health
Emergency of International Concern explicitly said the measures
to stop it should
include treatment, tracing of contacts, and social distancing,
but not “any travel or
trade restriction.” That’s because almost no one in the game
thinks that works.
“The travel ban on foreign nationals is counterproductive,
unethical, and violates
international law. There’s little evidence that a person who’s
been to mainland China
but not in the hot zone would be exposed to the virus, and there
are far less restrictive
measures we could use,” . “I think it’s a huge overreach, and I
worry that the White
House is lurching from complacency to panic and overreaction.”
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb-07 , Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins
Center for Health Security
Travel bans and quarantines haven’t worked to contain other
recent outbreaks. “I don’t think
we’ve seen compelling evidence that travel bans work at all, and
they’re less likely to work
for respiratory viruses like this, because they move too
quickly,”
-----------------------------------------------------------------
One 2011 study by a team of modelers in Europe and the US said
that H1N1 travel bans
reduced air travel to and from Mexico by 40 percent—with huge
economic consequences—
but didn’t slow the disease’s spread at all. A 2014 British
meta-analysis of 23 different
studies of the effect of travel restrictions on influenza
outbreaks concluded that they
slowed disease spread by no more than 3 percent—less if the
restrictions came late
in the outbreak, and less in big cities. And an international
team looking at the travel
restrictions that came with the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak
found much the
same thing: They delayed the disease’s spread to other countries
only by weeks, if at all.
HTML https://www.scielosp.org/pdf/bwho/2014.v92n12/868-880D/en
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb-07 ,
HTML https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6478/610
Feb-07 , Robin Thompson, a mathematical epidemiologist at the
University of Oxford.
“There has obviously been a huge amount of spread within China,
but [elsewhere], there's no
evidence of any kind of substantial human-to-human
transmission,” “The risk probably isn't
as high as some models have been projecting.”
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb-07 , Epidemiologist Marion Koopmans of Erasmus Medical
Center
it may not be that hard to contain the virus in a new locale as
long as the first cases are detected and isolated early—provided
the virus is not highly transmissible. “We don't see it taking
off in the 200 or so cases seeded outside of China,” If that
pattern holds, “there still is the possibility it will bend
off.”
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Feb-07 , Joseph Wu, a modeler at the University of Hong Kong.
[goes down in summer] “That is a big question mark we're trying
to assess at the moment
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb-07 , Alessandro Vespignani, a modeler of infectious diseases
at Northeastern University.
2019-nCoV “will be very difficult to stop in China,” But if
asymptomatic transmission is rare,
“isolation and social distancing can have a big impact.”
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb-07 , Aavitsland
“As the virus continues to spread in China, the risk of
exportation to other countries
grows and sooner or later we will see it spread in another
country,”
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb.07 , Lipsitch
so far there has been no sustained transmission outside of
China, but I expect that to change:
“I would be really shocked if in 2 or 3 weeks there wasn't
ongoing transmission with hundreds
of cases in several countries on several continents.”
[mild cases] “So what looks like a horrific disease may be the
horrific tip of a very large iceberg,”
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If indeed 2019-nCoV becomes pandemic, humanity may be stuck with
it indefinitely.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb.09 , Adam Kucharski, an associate professor of infectious
disease epidemiology,
Assuming current trends continue, we’re still projecting a
mid-to-late-February peak”
of virus cases in Wuhan, 5% infected by then
-------------------------------------------------
Feb.10 , Professor Peter Piot, director of the London School of
Hygiene & Tropical Medicine,
the outbreak is more likely to become a pandemic, with the
increased and fast rate of infection.
----------------------------------------------------
Feb.10 , UK Department for Health and Social Care , The
secretary of state
declares that the incidence or transmission of novel
Coronavirus constitutes a serious and imminent threat to public
health, and the
measures outlined in these regulations are considered as an
effective means of
delaying or preventing further transmission of the virus.
--------------------------------------------------------
2020/02/11 , Prof Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine
at Hong Kong Univ
Outbreak Could Infect “Between 60%-80%” Of Humanity, Causing 51
Million Deaths
-----------------------------------------------
2020/02/10 WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
we might be seeing only ‘the tip of the iceberg’ in terms of
number of cases
------------------------------------------------
2020/02/11 , Tedros, WHO
weltweit „ernste Bedrohung“. Trotz der hauptsächlichen
Eingrenzung auf China
stelle das Virus eine „sehr ernster Bedrohung für den Rest der
Welt dar“,
Das zweitägige Treffen soll zur Eindämmung der Krankheit
beitragen.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Der chinesische Ministerpräsident Li Keqiang hat am
Sonntagabend mit seiner
deutschen Amtskollegin Angela Merkel telefoniert und sich dabei
mit über die
Vorbeugung und Kontrolle der Epidemie durch das Coronavirus
2019-nCoV ausgetauscht.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6:30 pm: China’s top virus expert reportedly says outbreak may
peak this month
China’s fast-spreading coronavirus may peak in February, before
cases then start
to plateau and ease over the coming months, Beijing’s top
economic adviser told
Reuters on Tuesday.
Zhong Nanshan, a leading epidemiologist who become known around
the world for
his role tackling the SARS epidemic in 2003, said the situation
in China was already
showing signs of improving, pointing to the number of new cases
falling overnight.
He added that he believes the outbreak would peak either by the
middle or the end
of February before the number of cases would then start to fall.
Zhong had previously predicted an earlier peak for the
coronavirus, Reuters reported.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb.11 , Xi,
Die Maßnahmen zur Prävention und Eindämmung würden positive
Ergebnisse zeigen,
Sein Land werde den Kampf gegen das Virus gewinnen. Danach werde
die Volksrepublik
besser dastehen al zuvor, die Regierung werde an den geplanten
wirtschaftlichen
und sozialen Zielen festhalten.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb.11 , Tedros, WHO
Wir sollten als ein Menschengeschlecht hart daran arbeiten,
dieses Feuer zu bekämpfen,
bevor es außer Kontrolle gerät“
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2020/02/12 , Mike Coston avianfludiary.com
seems increasingly likely that COVID-19 will spread globally,
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb.10 , Donald Trump, President USA
The heat, generally speaking, kills this kind of virus,”“A lot
of people think that goes
away in April as the heat comes in.“in theory when it gets a
little warmer it
miraculously goes away.”
Feb.07,Trump
I had just spoken on the phone with President Xi Jinping of
China.
“Nothing is easy, but Xi will be successful, especially as the
weather starts to
warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone.”
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb.11 , Messonier , CDC
Warm Weather May Not Slow Outbreak
The theory that the coronavirus will slow down when warm weather
sets in is mostly based
on the fact that other respiratory viruses such as influenza
exhibit seasonal patterns,
not specific data about this new virus.
CDC is optimistic that lower case counts coming from China in
the last few days mean
that the country’s quarantine is working, but that it’s “too
soon to say that for sure,”
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Feb.12 , Dr. Robert Redfield , director CDC
We’re still going to see new cases. We’re probably going to see
human-to-human transmission
within the United States,”
at some point in time it is highly probable that we’ll have to
transition to mitigation”
as a public health strategy, using “social distancing measures”
— for example, closure
of certain public facilities — and other techniques to try to
limit the number of people who
become infected.
“We’re not going to be able to seal this virus from coming into
this country,” .
But, “we do gain time by prolonging the containment phase as
long as we can,
provided that we still believe that’s a useful public health
effort.
“That’s where we are right now in the United States.”
If the United States begins to see instances in several parts of
the country in which a
single case ignites four “generations” of human-to-human
infection,
then the CDC is likely to conclude containment of the virus has
failed.
“Once we get greater than three — so four or more is our view —
[generations of]
human-to-human transmission in the community … and we see that
in multiple areas of the
country that are not contiguous, then basically the value of all
of the containment strategies
that we’ve done now then really become not effective,” he said.
“That’s when we’re in full mitigation.”
China, which has reported more than 45,000 cases to date, has
not been able to contain
the virus, despite massively restricting internal travel to try
to stop it from spreading from
Hubei province
“Those countries that are still largely seeing cases that are
really, like us, directly from Hubei province, there’s reason to
still stay in the containment mode rather than turning that off
and going right to mitigation. Because once you’re into
mitigation, you will probably start to see more cases that may
have been able to be contained,
----------------------------------------------------------------
Feb.12 , Messonier
This really isn’t a ‘let’s stop it and then we’re done.’ It’s a
‘if we can pause it a little bit, we buy ourselves some time to
work on the rest of our pandemic planning,’
----------------------------------------------------------
2020/02/12 , Ferguson
With the numbers of people infected with coronavirus increasing,
Professor Neil Ferguson -
feels we’re in the “early phases of a global pandemic”
-----------------------------------------------------------
2020/02/11 , Lipsitch
Far more worrisome than Wall Street getting it wrong is that
DonaldTrump
has been saying it will go away naturally in spring.
-------------------------------------------------------------
HTML https://twitter.com/mlipsitch
Krammer
HTML https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.09.20021261v1.full.pdf
The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019
novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak
the travel quarantine delays the overall epidemic progression by
only 3 to 5 days.
Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel
restric-
tions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the
epidemic trajectory unless
combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the
community.
----------------------------------------------
Steven Riley, a professor of infectious-disease dynamics at
Imperial College,
“Where we’ll look next is Hong Kong and Singapore,” Dr. Riley
said. “We may see a growth phase there next,” although, he
added, researchers haven’t yet seen exponential growth outside
of mainland China.
“I think it is likely we’ll see a global pandemic,” said Marc
Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard T.H. Chan
School of Public Health. “If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of
people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year.
What proportion of those will be symptomatic, I can’t give a
good number.”
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