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#Post#: 24--------------------------------------------------
disasters
By: gsgs Date: January 31, 2020, 9:10 am
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2003, SARS , $40B , 8000 deaths
2004, Tsunami , $15B , 230000 deaths
2005, Katrina ,$125B , 1200 deaths
2008, Sichuan earthquake , $150B , >240000 deaths
2008, financial crisis , ~~$5000B
2010, Haiti earthquake, $8B , 160000 deaths
2011, Japan Tsunami , $360B (!) , 16000 deaths
2012, Sandy, $69B
2017, Harvey,Maria,Irma , $280B
2020, Coronavirus [[$120B , 10M deaths]]
------edit 2020/02/01 , new estimate : 3.5M deaths-----------
------edit 2020/02/08 , cancel the estimate above or ~(redouble
it), I didn't consider the deaths-time-lag
------edit 2020/02/08 , new estimate : 0.1M deaths (the
case-numbers are going down, no pandemic)
#Post#: 55--------------------------------------------------
Re: disasters
By: epsilon Date: February 5, 2020, 2:30 pm
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if (and this is, fortunately, still a rather big 'if') 2019nCoV
goes fully pandemic then roughly expect a 50% global attack rate
like it has been in past flu pandmics, i.e. 2009 H1N1.
So 3.5 billion infections with 2019nCoV and a CFR of 2% would
mean 70 M deaths, surpassing World War II as the greatest
disaster so far in human history.
#Post#: 56--------------------------------------------------
Re: disasters
By: gsgs Date: February 5, 2020, 10:45 pm
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I took the 20% from a CDC-estimate in Feb.2010, how many
US-people had got
pandemic H1N1 by then.
When I first wrote this, I didn't realize that the CFR outside
Wuhan is much lower
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