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#Post#: 321--------------------------------------------------
omicron vaccine effectiveness
By: gsgs Date: December 31, 2021, 9:22 pm
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scroll down for the most actual numbers
actual numbers on hospitalisations and positive-rates here:
HTML https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/genetics/b-1-1-529-(nu-)/msg320/#msg320
:
HTML https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-vaccination-status
HTML https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1044481/Technical-Briefing-31-Dec-2021-Omicron_severity_update.pdf
UK,symp,
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/tb34a.GIF
UK,hosp:
VE(UK,h,1d, 7w,O)=52
VE(UK,h,2d,11w,O)=72
VE(UK,h,2d,30w,O)=52
VE(UK,h,3d, 4w,O)=88
Ontario , VE(case),1129-1231
76,76,74,74,72,73,72
71,70,69,67,67,64,63
59,53,47,40,32,25,16
+08,+01,-05,-12,-18,-25,-28
-31,-33,-29,-32,-38
Ontario , VE(hosp),1213-1231
84,84,83,82,82,81,81
79,78,77,75,73,70,66
63,60,56,54,47
---------------------------------------------------------
Robert Koch Institute report released today states that 95.58%
of the #Omicron cases
in Germany are fully vaccinated (28% of those had a "booster"),
4.42% are unvaccinated.
--------------------------------------------------------
the 2nd dose mRNA vaccine given to someone who also had past
infection
did not further increase antibodies
---------------------------------------------------
> One of the studies shows omicron is 89% as severe in people
with no vax, never infected
------------------------------------------------------
vaccine effectiveness
AZ,BNT,Mod
D,2,h,78,91
D,3,h,98,98
O,2,h,51,75
O,3,h,90,86
O,2,h,ar,54,77
O,3,h,ar,92,88
O,2,s,--,55,37
ar:adjusted for reinfections
s: symptomatic disease
h:hospitalisation
O:omicron
D:delta
w:weeks
HTML https://twitter.com/freja_kirsebom/status/1474070653326270473
O,2AZ+BNT,s,3w,60
O,2AZ+BNT,s,10w,35
O,2AZ+Mod,s,10w,45
O,3BNT,s,1w,70
O,3BNT,s,10w,45
O,2BNT+Mod,9w,72
O,2Mod,3w,50
O,2Mod,22w,0
----------------------------------------------------------------
-----------
DNK,VE :
HTML https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.20.21267966v2.full.pdf
----------------------------------------------------------------
-----
VE(3*BNT,omicron,symp)=75%
----------------------------------------------------------------
-
SinoVac doesn’t provide sufficient antibodies to neutralize
omicron
------------------------------------------------------
VE(2xBNT,omicron,hosp)=70%
VE(2xBNT,omicron,inf)=33%
wanes
1. 2-4 wks after 2nd dose: 56%
2. 3-4 mnths after 2nd dose: 25%
VE(delta-->omicron,inf)=60%
----------------------------------------------------------------
VE(symp,2AZ,omicron,5m?,UK)=0
VE(symp,2BNT,omicron,5m?,UK)~30%
VE(symp,3BNT,omicron,1m,UK)=72%
HTML https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040076/Technical_Briefing_31.pdf
HTML https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469351833416122369
------------------------------------------------
current vaccine effectivity in Iceland
see
HTML https://www.covid.is/data
VE(2shots,case) = -88% (Jan02)
VE(3shots,case) = 38% (Jan02)
VE(2shots,hosp) = 71% (Dec28)
VE(3shots,hosp) = 84% (Dec28)
------------------------------------------------
Iceland :
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/ice1228.GIF
VE(ICE,case,3d,5w,O)=48
VE(ICE,case,2d,20w,O)=-82%
Washington :
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/wa-1229.GIF
VE(WA,case,omicron)=60%
New York :
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/ny-1222.GIF
VE(NY,case,omicron)=75
Virginia :
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/va-1225.GIF
VE(VA,case,omicron)=92%
UK,symp,
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/tb34a.GIF
Ontario : VE(case)= -31% VE(hosp)=45% , VE(ICU)=84% (was
73%,82%,90% 5 weeks ago)
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/ont-0105.GIF
California : VE(case)=75% (-1% per day) , VE(hosp)=87% (-0.5%
per day) , VE(death)=95% (stable)
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/ca-1226.GIF
Oregon, Dec30 :
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/or-1230.GIF
VE(case)=66%
Germany, Jan06 :
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/rki2w01.GIF
VE(case,2dose,18-59)= 53 , VE(hosp,18-59)=76 , VE(ICU)=89
VE(case,3dose,18-59) = 82 , VE(hosp,3dose,18-59)=92
(it's for the last 4 weeks , still mostly delta, the omicron
wave is just starting,
mainly young people get it early in the wave, so I took 18-59
and not 60+)
----------------------------------------
USA-CA :
VE(Mod,case,O,2dose,14-90d)=30 quickly declining
VE(Mod,case,O,3dose,)=63
HTML https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.07.22268919v1
----------------------------------------
vaccine effectiveness in UK with 2-3 doses ,
4-week average
average of 4-5 highest from 7 agegroups
ONS-denumerators
reported in weeks 1,2 of 2022
VE(case) , av(5)=26.1% , 22.8%
VE(admis) , av(5)=+91.5% , +89.1%
VE(death) , av(4)=+92.4% , +93.2%
-----------------------------------------------------------
VE-numbers in % for case/symp , hosp , ICU , death
ONT,0112 , VE(2+dose)=-25,40,77,--
ICE,0105 , VE(2dose) = 00,66,--,--
ICE,0105 , VE(3dose) = 32,68,--,--
Germany actual estimates from 4-week-period-numbers
DEU,0113 , VE(2dose) = 00,59,76,82
DEU,0113 , VE(3dose) = 40,83,86,89
----------------------------------------------------------------
Italy :
HTML https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_12-gennaio-2022.pdf
fig.A10,A11
VE much better in old people ? I assume it's because omicron
infects young people first
and the VE(old) will go down to the VE(young) in some weeks
Ontario, 01-25 :
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/ont-0125.GIF
VE(2+dose,case)=15% , VE(2+dose,hosp)=50%
VE(2+dose,ICU)=80%
but these are lower numbers in the decreasing wave , VE was
lower at the peak of the wave
DE : 2d:30,55,90,90 ; 3d : 65,84,90,90 (symp,hosp,ICU,death)
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/rki2-w03.GIF
ITA : 2dl : 08,84 ; 2ds : 31,89 ; 3d : 46,94 (case,severe
case) 2d >/< 120days ago
Iceland , VE(3dose,case) = 40% , VE(3dose,hosp) = 65%
California :VE(case)= 76% , VE(hosp) = 85% , VE(death) = 95%
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/ca-0109.GIF
New York City : VE(case)=60% , VE(hosp)=88%
(NY-State gives 78% and 92%)
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/nyc-21.GIF
France , 2022-01-01 , 2dose : -25% , 57% , 72% (case,hosp,ICU)
France , 2022-01-01 , 3dose : 48% , 74% , 85% (case,hosp,ICU)
Iceland, 2022-01-25 : VE(2dose,case)=-35% , VE(2dose,hosp)=60%
,
VE(3dose,case)=40% , VE(3dose,hosp)=80%
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/ice-0125.GIF
Germany, 2022-01-27 ,
HTML http://rki2w04.GIF
40,70,80,85 ,
75,90,96,94
Israel, 2022-01-27 , average of 5 oldest age10groups
2dose>6m : 45,63 ; 2d>6m or 3dose : 45,88 for inf.,severe
UK,3dose :
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/3dosek.GiF
2022-01-16 , California :
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/ca-0116.GIF
68,80,87,93 2,3dose ; case,hosp
( how can it be 76% in CA and NY but 10% in ONT and 40% in ICE
? )
46 in ITA , 30 in UK , 70% in DE
s also the effect that unvaccinated people are more likely to
have natural immunity
and this increasing over time. Countries/States rarely report
cases nd hospitalisations by
vaccination status _and_ status of previous infection
#Post#: 322--------------------------------------------------
Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
By: gsgs Date: February 4, 2022, 10:37 pm
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Paul Mainwood makes these nice weekly updated computer-readable
data files for UK-VE ,
since 22 weeks
HTML https://github.com/PaulMainwood/vaccine-surveillance-reports/blob/main/assortment%20of%20denominators.csv
HTML https://github.com/PaulMainwood/vaccine-surveillance-reports/blob/main/vaccine%20surveillance.csv
that gives VE(UK,3dose)=
40,93,98% for case,hosp,death
while figures 1-2 and table 8 suggest
65,85,88% (7weeks) for symp,hosp,death
HTML https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1052353/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_5.pdf
average of age10grougs40-80,
boost 0%-50% Oct01-Jan01 average 7 weeks ago
average of AZ+AZ+BNT and BNT+BNT+BNT
wanes 2% per week for VE(case) and 1.2% per week for VE(hosp)
Germany : 75,91,98%
(1*[18-59]+2*[>65])/3,3dose,clinical symp,hosp,death)
Italy :
#Post#: 323--------------------------------------------------
Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
By: gsgs Date: February 7, 2022, 11:07 pm
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actual omicron vaccine effectiveness reports
-------------------------------------
location,date,doses,time since last dose,
VE(case,symp,hosp,ICU,death)
UK-:40,--,93 waning by 2% and 1.2% per week
DEU:--,75,90,96,96 clinical symptoms
ITA:--,68, 91
ICE:42,--,80
ISR:40,--,88
ONT:15,--,50 2-3 dose
-NY:--,77,92
-CA:87,--,93
-OR:83,-- 2dose:68,--
-WA:75,86 2-3 dose
FRA:--,88,86,-- 1201-0116 -27(00-19)
FRA:--,69,79,--
FRA,2021-12-12,:86,91,93,96,90
case,symp,hosp,ICU,death age>20
#Post#: 324--------------------------------------------------
Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
By: gsgs Date: February 28, 2022, 12:19 pm
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-BA.1 is 94.9% effective against BA.2
-BA.2 is 85.6% effectives against BA.1
---------------------------------------
current VE in %
DEU,3 ,--,69,87,95,95
UK ,3 ,18,--,84,--,95
ITA,3 ,73,--,89,94,94
NY ,23 ,70,--,90,--,--
ICE,3 ,50,--,30,--,--
CA ,3 ,81,--,90,--,94
ONT,23 ,00,--,56,76,--
location,doses,case,symp,hosp,ICU,death
#Post#: 327--------------------------------------------------
Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
By: gsgs Date: April 12, 2022, 12:51 am
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basic vaccinations (2dose) seem to play a bigger role wrt.
deaths than boosters
almost no effect on case-counts (urban USA, omicron-wave)
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/cou23a.GIF
550 Counties with population >100000, making 71% of the
US-population
(also excluding the big rural.urban differences of omicron)
taking % of elderly boosted (19%-94%, omitting 9 Counties with
extreme values,
and some Sates not available, e.g. Florida)
average of Counties, not weighted by population
(focussing on County policy , no magnitude-bias)
gives deathrates
49,60,60,69,60,64,59,62,50,40
for 0-10%,...,90%-100% of elderly boosted (average of 2 values
in Dec.and Feb),
I forgot the exact dates)
cases and deaths from usafacts, vax from CDC)
(processed) datafiles :
cou23a.r1
cou23b.r1
result-file : cou23.l2
#Post#: 328--------------------------------------------------
Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
By: gsgs Date: May 2, 2022, 11:01 am
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updates , May 2022 :
Italy ;
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/ita-2427.GIF
Germany :
HTML http://magictour.free.fr/rki2w17.GIF
France :
HTML https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/sites/default/files/2022-04/3_4.png
Ontario :
California :
New York :
current VE in % , 2022-05-01
location,doses,case,symp,hosp,ICU,death
[code]
DEU,2 ,--,35,70,80,80
DEU,3 ,--,26,71,87,87
UK ,3 ,14,--,84,--,93
UK ,2 ,05,--,35,--,59
ITA,3 ,62,--,81,87,91
iTA,2 ,66,--,68,74,74
NY ,2-3,68,--,88,--,--
ICE,3 ,39,--,17,--,--
ICE,2 ,-19,-,71,--,-- during the wave :
CA ,3 ,76,--,87,--,94 80,90,94
CA ,2-?,81,--,82,--,87 65,83,87
ONT,2-3,00,--,56,76,--
US14, 2,--,--,75,--,--
US14, 3,--,--,92,--,--
FRA,3 ,57,--,80,86,91
CDC,2-3,66,--,--,--,90
QAT, 2,00,--,--,--,--
QAT, 3,52,--,--,--,--
VT , 3, , ,73, ,
VT , 2, , ,47, ,
MS , 3, , , , ,74
CHL, 2,
CHL, 3,
EU3, 3,58,33,81,88,89
CA ,3 ,80,--,89,--,92 omicron wave
CA ,2-?,70,--,82,--,85
VA ,3 ,91,--,80,--,92 omicron wave
VA ,2-?,60,--,65,--,85
OR ,3 ,66,--,--,--,-- omicron wave
OR ,2-?,33,--,--,--,--
location,doses,case,symp,hosp,ICU,death
Hongkong , 180d after last dose B=BNT,S=Sinovac
B--,--,--,--,--,77
S--,--,--,--,--,61
BB-,01,--,60,--,70(90)
SS-,01,--,60,--,70(80)
BBB,77,--,94,--,95
BBS,44,--,80,--,95
SSB,29,--,80,--,90
SSS,08,--,80,--,90
[/code]
================================================
VE-links
CDC:
HTML https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html
HTML https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status
HTML https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-COVID-19-Cases-or-Deaths-by-Age-Group-and/3rge-nu2a
HTML https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/3rge-nu2a/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD
SD-County:
HTML https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/community_epidemiology/dc/2019-nCoV/status.html
LA-County:
HTML http://www.ph.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/data/reopening-dashboard.htm
OK:
HTML https://oklahoma.gov/covid19/newsroom/weekly-epidemiology-and-surveillance-report.html
AR:
HTML https://www.healthy.arkansas.gov/programs-services/topics/covid-19-reports
Oregon weekly reports
:
HTML https://digital.osl.state.or.us/islandora/object/osl:944807
Oregon, weekly breakthrough reports
:
HTML https://digital.osl.state.or.us/islandora/object/osl%3A968511
VA:
HTML https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-19-cases-by-vaccination-status/
DC :
HTML https://coronavirus.dc.gov/data/vaccination
CA:
HTML https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Post-Vaccine-COVID19-Cases.aspx
HTML https://data.chhs.ca.gov/dataset/covid-19-post-vaccination-infection-data
USA weekly reports by State :
HTML https://healthdata.gov/browse?tags=covid-19-spr&page=2
UT:
HTML https://coronavirus-dashboard.utah.gov/risk.html
MS:
HTML https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,23549,420,971.html
SC:
HTML https://scdhec.gov/covid19/covid-19-data/cases-hospitalizations-deaths-among-not-fully-vaccinated
VT:
HTML https://dfr.vermont.gov/about-us/covid-19/modeling
WA-Clark:
HTML https://clark.wa.gov/sites/default/files/media/image/2021-09/case_rate_by_vax_status_09.08.21.JPG
WA:
HTML https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/420-339-VaccineBreakthroughReport.pdf
HTML https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/421-010-CasesInNotFullyVaccinated.pdf
NY:
HTML https://projects.thecity.nyc/2020_03_covid-19-tracker/
HTML https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page?mod=article_inline#daily<br
/> (wait)
HTML https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-breakthrough-data
HTML https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data
HTML https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data/tree/master/trends
WI :
HTML https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/vaccine-status.htm
MN :
HTML https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/vbt.html
FRA:
HTML https://covidtracker.fr/vaximpact/
HTML https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/recherche?text=Covid-19
Ontario.CA:
HTML https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario
BC-CA :
HTML https://www.victoriabuzz.com/2021/10/bc-health-officials-report-624-new-cases-of-covid-19-on-thursday-october-7th/
Manitoba,
HTML https://geoportal.gov.mb.ca/apps/manitoba-covid-19-cases-and-risk-by-vaccination-status/explore
England:
HTML https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-surveillance-reports
HTML https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings
Scotland :
HTML https://publichealthscotland.sco
t/publications/show-all-releases?id=20580
Wales :
HTML https://www2.nphs.wales.nhs.uk/CommunitySurveillanceDocs.nsf/3dc04669c9e1eaa880257062003b246b/a4f536f72da3962b8025875a0031b3c8/$FILE/Survey%20of%20vaccine%20status%20in%20cases%20and%20hospital%20inpatients.pdf
ICE:
HTML https://www.covid.is/data
Italy :
HTML https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati
CDC vacc.
HTML https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccination-and-Case-Trends-by-Age-Group-/gxj9-t96f/data
#Post#: 329--------------------------------------------------
Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
By: gsgs Date: June 4, 2022, 9:36 am
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Italy update :
HTML https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_31-maggio-2022.pdf
reinfections back to 6% (figura 21)
VE(3dose; case,hosp,ICU,death) now at 08,70,74,84
,10 weeks ago it was 48,86,91,93
case , 27,08,22, 00,00,00, 44,46,55
hosp , 54,28,38, 66,58,58, 82,80,72
ICU , 67,47,41, 74,71,50, 84,86,74
death, 58,27,51, 72,76,78, 89,88,87
VE in % in France during the omicron wave , 2022-12-13 -
2022-05-22
numbers estimated from the graphics at
HTML https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/communique-de-presse/statut-vaccinale-des-personnes-testees-ou-hospitalisees-avec-covid-19-derriere
2dose , 3dose>3m , 3dose<3m ; 40-59,60-79,80+
average of the 3 agegroups :
2,3>,3<
---------------
case , 19,00,48
hosp , 40,61,78
ICU , 52,65,81
death, 45,75,88
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