DIR Return Create A Forum - Home
---------------------------------------------------------
March Madness 2016
HTML https://marchmadness2016.createaforum.com
---------------------------------------------------------
*****************************************************
DIR Return to: General Discussion
*****************************************************
#Post#: 23--------------------------------------------------
Project perfect bracket
DIR By: zdc3133
Date: March 14, 2016, 9:43 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
I was just made aware of this site check it out!
HTML http://projectperfectbracket.blogspot.com/
#Post#: 41--------------------------------------------------
Re: Project perfect bracket
DIR By: will
Date: March 15, 2016, 10:03 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Some quick upset stats while I have time based on the four most
similar tournaments...
-On average, the '05/'10/'12/'14 tournaments produced 1.25
upsets from the 14 and 15 seeds. Look out! (But still don't pick
these, too much risk)
-If I remember correctly, they produced about 4.25 upsets from
the 11-13 seeds and the most similar tournaments at the 11, 12,
and 13 lines produced (on average) 2, 1, and 1 each.
-As for the second round, every tournament but 2012 (which
appears to be an outlier at 1 second-round upset) had at least
three second-round seed upsets, and two had exactly four.
-Even 2014 had at least one 1 seed in its Final Four. Only 2005
had more than one 1 seed; all had at least one team seeded 4 or
higher.
-The collected average of total upsets in the four closest
tournaments is 10.75, though 2014 drags this up with its 15
upsets. Leaving out 2014, the average would be 9.33.
This kind of confirms what some basic Top 20 research did a
month or so ago - I don't think this one will be extremely crazy
but not extremely sane either. Maybe above-average for upsets.
#Post#: 60--------------------------------------------------
Re: Project perfect bracket
DIR By: squire12
Date: March 15, 2016, 8:21 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
will,
How are you basing the tournaments of 05, 10, 12 and 14 as being
more similar to this upcoming one??
Is it Kenpom efficiency data?
Just wondering where/how you are drawing from those tourney's vs
others.
Thanks
#Post#: 64--------------------------------------------------
Re: Project perfect bracket
DIR By: will
Date: March 15, 2016, 9:37 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
--- Quote from: squire12 link ---
>
> will,
>
> How are you basing the tournaments of 05, 10, 12 and 14 as
being more similar to this upcoming one??
>
> Is it Kenpom efficiency data?
>
> Just wondering where/how you are drawing from those tourney's
vs others.
>
> Thanks
>
--- End Quote ---
I'm using the author of the blog's assertion that the '05, '10,
'12, and '14 tournaments are most similar to this one.
#Post#: 69--------------------------------------------------
Re: Project perfect bracket
DIR By: squire12
Date: March 15, 2016, 10:36 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Thanks will!!!
Good stuff. I recall tabulating a lot of the same seed total
(aggregate) information a few years ago and posting it to
Bracket Science. Really interesting to look at it with the seed
curve and combining it with the upsets/seed total aggregate.
#Post#: 71--------------------------------------------------
Re: Project perfect bracket
DIR By: squire12
Date: March 15, 2016, 10:44 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
From what I calculated, here are the efficiency averages for
each seed level.
1. .9378
2. .9236
3. .8919
4. .8909
5. .8866
6. .8554
7. .8179
8. .7997
9. .8302
10 .7856
11. .8162
12. .7469
13. .7303
14. .6722
15. .6184
16. .3546
Weak 8-seeds and 10-seeds relative to the 9 and 11 seeds
respectively.
#Post#: 75--------------------------------------------------
Re: Project perfect bracket
DIR By: kdkalita
Date: March 16, 2016, 7:54 am
---------------------------------------------------------
This should help. I made a chart of the KenPom Ratings vs. Seed
for 2016 teams as well as the ten year average (2006 was first
year of the one and done rule).
Blue Series = 2016
Red Series = Ten Year Average
This chart helped me tremendously last year for predicting that
the tournament would be pretty chalky, and for the most part it
really was.
Hope this helps!
*****************************************************
Page 1 of 1