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March Madness 2016
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#Post#: 54--------------------------------------------------
Re: West Region
DIR By: b_sun
Date: March 15, 2016, 5:56 pm
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Not feeling too confident in any of these picks, who do y'all
have in the E8 of this region?
#Post#: 55--------------------------------------------------
Re: West Region
DIR By: Trashthunderbolt
Date: March 15, 2016, 6:30 pm
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I don't see any upset of 16 over 1 this season (although I long
thought Florida Gulf Coast will do it but they have North
Carolina after they beat the play-in game). I don't see a 15
over 2 either (Xavier might be a close one). Cal St.
Bakersfield, according to the experts, play a zone defense. Now,
if they beat Wisconsin (pack-line defense), swept Baylor
(utilize a funny "diamond-shape" zone defense), even beat West
Virginia twice (played pressure defense) during the regular
season, what defense does Cal St. Bakersfield has to slow
Oklahoma?
#Post#: 62--------------------------------------------------
Re: West Region
DIR By: krs703
Date: March 15, 2016, 8:47 pm
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Good thing saved this region for last. This one is truly wide
open for any team in F4. If you are in a big pool with a lot of
people go ahead and go crazy. Most likely most people going to
have Oregon and Oklahoma and chalk in this region. And you can
win your pool if this region blows up. Only team with a good
past history is Duke. And they are not the Duke of years past.
Which hurts them this year in the stats. You could see a VCU
Sweet 16 run this region. Baylor might be a sneaky good choice
for a F4. Based on a solid coach and good past history which
might be good enough. Also 6 of last 7 years a team that got
upset in 1st round the year prior. Has gone on to the F4 the
next season. Hello Baylor.
#Post#: 65--------------------------------------------------
Re: West Region
DIR By: will
Date: March 15, 2016, 9:39 pm
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CSU Bakersfield is easily the best 15 seed and actually matches
up exceptionally well with Oklahoma's three biggest weakness
(turnovers, defensive rebounding, and 2PT shooting)...but, yeah,
I'd have to see it happen.
#Post#: 67--------------------------------------------------
Re: West Region
DIR By: Larry K
Date: March 15, 2016, 10:11 pm
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Back to game theory here... i'd say its not wise to have OKL
lose to a 15 seed in the first round.. why? i'd say 98-99
percent of all brackets will have OKL winning this game... but
the important part of that fact is that by winning they LIVE on
to go much further if there seed is well deserved... if you
happen to luck out, and be right and have OKL to lose in the
first round.. you gain ONE point over every one else.. ONE and
only ONE, unless by some freak of nature, you think that CSUB
can win two games.... so what you are doing is risking losing a
bunch of points to 'maybe' winning one point... make certain
if you are going to take a big dog, that you are not only
looking at what you can win if they win, but also the amount of
points you figure to miss out on if you are wrong....
risk/reward my friends :)
#Post#: 78--------------------------------------------------
Re: West Region
DIR By: b_sun
Date: March 16, 2016, 8:31 am
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Larry - Was looking at it more of an indication that they may
have trouble escaping the first weekend, not that I'm going to
actually pick the 15 seed. I think I saw somewhere that like 46%
of brackets currently have OU in the final four. I think they
are a solid team, but maybe not a F4/Championship team. They
remind me a little of Wisconsin of last year, who I wasn't
terribly high on and thought Zona would beat easily.
However, with so many people picking OU to F4, I think I can
pick up points (esp in my 2,000 person pool) by fading them
early on. In that big pool, I'll likely have them losing to VCU
or A&M before they get to the E8. Problem is there really isn't
a sure fire team to make the F4 outside of OU. I'm contemplating
VCU, A&M, Baylor and Cinci - anyone got any advice here?
#Post#: 79--------------------------------------------------
Re: West Region
DIR By: will
Date: March 16, 2016, 9:21 am
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I went with A&M-Duke in the Elite Eight. Duke has the easiest
path to the Sweet 16 maybe in the entire field (UNCW has one
7-footer who rebounds but who also commits 7 fouls per 40
minutes and Baylor is the paperest tiger), Oregon relies on
turnovers and transition but Duke is the third-best team in the
field at preventing turnovers. Cincinnati would actually be a
tougher matchup for Duke than Oregon would be. All A&M has to do
is beat a Green Bay team that got outlier-level hot against
Valpo and Wright State and has had 10+ days to cool down in an
unfamiliar arena. Texas blows. UNI can't rebound. Oklahoma can't
rebound or force turnovers so they'd have to shoot 55% to beat
A&M. Just seems like the most logical final at this point. Go
figure the NCAA would want Duke in an Elite Eight.
#Post#: 81--------------------------------------------------
Re: West Region
DIR By: Larry K
Date: March 16, 2016, 11:28 am
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i think both A+M and VCU are capable of getting by OKL.. if you
take VCU, you are only giving OKL one win in the region and i'm
not so sure thats a valid avenue to take..
yes, DUKE has the easy ride... i have them vs Cinn... and
honestly, i cant take a 9 seed to the elite eight.. so DUKE it
will be
#Post#: 83--------------------------------------------------
Re: West Region
DIR By: b_sun
Date: March 16, 2016, 1:05 pm
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Might just settle on Baylor vs A&M in the E8 due to Baylor's
rebounding and coaching and experience. Just praying they make
it out of round 1 and they've got a chance. A&M seems well
rounded and most likely "dark horse" to make the F4. Not crazy
enough to take VCU out to final four i guess.
#Post#: 95--------------------------------------------------
Re: West Region
DIR By: squire12
Date: March 17, 2016, 5:40 pm
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From Will in the email compilation thread
--- Quote ---
> Seed guide upsets:
>
>
> 5 v. 12: Yale (5 seed losers: Indiana, Maryland, Baylor)
>
--- End Quote ---
Good catch!!! Yale tried to give Baylor enough chances to
rescue their tourney fate, but Baylor just kept self
destructing.
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