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       #Post#: 21738--------------------------------------------------
       Canadian Politics
       By: Kerry Date: March 10, 2019, 10:49 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       I was wondering how Trudeau and the Liberal Party will fare in
       the next election and tried to find out how each riding
       (district) voted for its representative in Parliament.   How
       much of a shift in percentages would be needed to defeat Trudeau
       if he remains party leader?
       I did not get very far.  The task seemed daunting, but I was
       shocked to discover how unequal in population the ridings are.
       Why should some ridings contain so few people compared to other
       ones?  That means some people have more influence when voting.
       It  suggests that whoever drew the ridings may have done it
       dishonestly.   If I have time, I may research which parties
       dominate in the ridings with smaller populations and which
       dominate in those with larger ones to see if the ridings  were
       rigged in favor of one party.
       Will Trudeau be around in the next election?   If he stays put,
       I'd think it would hurt the Liberal Party.  I also wonder if the
       two ministers who resigned from his cabinet have an eye on being
       his replacement.
       #Post#: 21741--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Canadian Politics
       By: paralambano Date: March 11, 2019, 10:35 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Kerry -  ^
       I think that the last re-destribution of seats federally was
       done in 2015. Is it still out of whack? It's based on the
       10-year census.
       Ya, I'm wondering too how Trudeau will do. There does seem to be
       some anti-him sentiment around. The thing is, how popular is the
       opposition? It's Trudeau they know I think, not Andrew Scheer.
       If Scheer wins, I think it will be by an anti-Trudeau vote. We
       have a Conservative government in Ontario. It usually means a
       Liberal one in Ottawa.
       para .    .    .    .
       #Post#: 21742--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Canadian Politics
       By: Kerry Date: March 11, 2019, 3:45 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       [quote author=paralambano link=topic=1386.msg21741#msg21741
       date=1552318522]
       Kerry -  ^
       I think that the last re-destribution of seats federally was
       done in 2015. Is it still out of whack? It's based on the
       10-year census.[/quote]I think it may have been out of whack as
       soon as the map got redrawn.
       I understand the need for the sparsely populated provinces to
       have at least one seat.  I  also understand that number of
       voters might count more than number of all the people.
       Nunavut had  18,124 electors; Yukon had 25,264; and  Northwest
       Territories had 28,795.  Put those aside then as necessary
       seats.
       What remains is still astonishing.  Prince Edward Island has 4
       seats with an average of 27,235 electors per seat.  Quebec at
       the other end has 78 seats with an average of 81,290.
       Breaking it down district by district, the least populous
       district in Prince Edward Island is Charlottetown with 26,400
       electors while the most populous district in Ontario is  Niagara
       Falls with 101,505.   Charlottetown votes Liberal, Niagara Falls
       votes Conservative.  While I can't make a judgment about Canada
       as a whole, those two districts suggest Liberals drew up the map
       since the Liberal voters in Charlottetown have almost four times
       as clout in Parliament as Conservative voters in Niagara Falls.
       Neither district got changed in the 2012 federal electoral
       redistribution.
       Some things are so hard to understand, I wonder if Wikipedia has
       them right.
       Canadian federal electoral redistribution, 2012
  HTML https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_federal_electoral_redistribution,_2012
       The allocation of seats to the provinces and territories was
       based on rules in the Constitution of Canada as well as
       population estimates made by Statistics Canada based on the 2006
       Census (in particular, the allocation is based on an estimate
       for the population as of July 1, 2011, "based on 2006 Census
       population counts adjusted for census net undercoverage and
       incompletely enumerated Indian reserves").
       A final report was tabled October 2013, with the changes
       proclaimed to take effect as of the first dissolution of
       Parliament occurring after May 1, 2014.  The names of some
       ridings were changed the Riding Name Change Act, 2014 came into
       force on June 19, 2014.
       So do I have this right?   The current districts are based on a
       census that is 13 years old that got "adjusted" because someone
       knew the census numbers weren't right and on "estimates" of
       growth in some areas?    Why not conduct a more thorough census
       and draw a map in a timely fashion?
       We know the Liberals came into power in the next election.  How
       could it be if the government that produced the new map  was
       Conservative?   I need to do more research; but from the little
       I've seen so far, it looks as if Liberals drew the map and not
       the Conservatives.   For example, all four districts from Prince
       Edward Island go Liberal.  That over-representation creates  one
       or two more Liberal MPs.   Why would a Conservative government
       approve such a map?
       [quote]Ya, I'm wondering too how Trudeau will do. There does
       seem to be some anti-him sentiment around. The thing is, how
       popular is the opposition? It's Trudeau they know I think, not
       Andrew Scheer. If Scheer wins, I think it will be by an
       anti-Trudeau vote. We have a Conservative government in Ontario.
       It usually means a Liberal one in Ottawa.[/quote]
       I'm guessing Trudeau is getting some pressure privately from
       within his own party to step aside so Scheer can't run on a
       platform based mostly on anti-Trudeau sentiment.
       #Post#: 21751--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Canadian Politics
       By: paralambano Date: March 12, 2019, 10:43 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Kerry -  ^
       [quote]I'm guessing Trudeau is getting some pressure privately
       from within his own party to step aside so Scheer can't run on a
       platform based mostly on anti-Trudeau sentiment. [/quote]
       I think that one of Trudeaus' campaign platforms was electoral
       reform but it looks like that's not going to happen unless all
       the parties agree on an alternative. Isn't first-past-the-post
       still used in the USA like it is here?
       The Chief Electoral Officer in 2015 was a Harper nominee. Harper
       had a majority government defeated by Trudeau. Any redrawing
       would have been the Officer's assignment under the
       Conservatives. Trudeau has had his nominee appointed by a
       Liberal majority Parliament.
       I think Trudeau would have still won in 2015 but with a minority
       government if the results were tabulated strictly by rep-by-pop.
       The Liberal gambit was to have their voters go for any candidate
       that could beat the Conservative candidate in the riding. The
       debate it seems is on the merits of both systems. Still, both
       dominant parties are more centrist than apart ideologically.
       It's the NDP that Canadians appear not to want since it appears
       to many as too far left.
       Who could replace Trudeau in the Liberal Party even if he were
       turfed from caucus as leader? Jody Raybold? I'm supposing most
       voters don't care about the Lavalin affair and had never heard
       of her before this and her dual duties as Attorney-General. What
       are the gas prices like on election day? I think Trudeau will
       win again.
       Ol' starin' at my wall para .    .    .    .
       #Post#: 21753--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Canadian Politics
       By: Kerry Date: March 12, 2019, 4:37 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       [quote author=paralambano link=topic=1386.msg21751#msg21751
       date=1552405415]
       Kerry -  ^
       I think that one of Trudeaus' campaign platforms was electoral
       reform but it looks like that's not going to happen unless all
       the parties agree on an alternative. Isn't first-past-the-post
       still used in the USA like it is here?[/quote]For the most part,
       it is; but some states hold run-offs if no one gets over 50%.
       Such run-offs usually are a huge waste of money, others may not
       be.   I don't have many ridings done yet; but I found  a few of
       both kinds.   I've finished looking at 3 provinces, and the
       Liberals hold all the seats.  The percentages involved in the
       results do not suggest gerrymandering, not in those three
       provinces.  I wonder if there's enough Conservative voters in
       the whole province of Newfoundland and Labrador that they could
       win just one seat even if they were all gerrymandered into one
       riding.   Trudeau bragged about how the Canadian system was not
       gerrymandered.  So far, that looks fairly true; but so far, it
       looks as if it wouldn't matter much in some provinces where the
       lines get drawn since the province is almost solidly one party
       or another.
       The Chief Electoral Officer in 2015 was a Harper nominee. Harper
       had a majority government defeated by Trudeau. Any redrawing
       would have been the Officer's assignment under the
       Conservatives. Trudeau has had his nominee appointed by a
       Liberal majority Parliament.
       [quote]I think Trudeau would have still won in 2015 but with a
       minority government if the results were tabulated strictly by
       rep-by-pop. The Liberal gambit was to have their voters go for
       any candidate that could beat the Conservative candidate in the
       riding. The debate it seems is on the merits of both
       systems.[/quote]
       There was a  result in Prince Edward Island  in the riding of
       Egmont I found interesting where the Liberals got  49.25%, the
       Conservatives with  28.95% and the NDP garnering 19.18%.   The
       outcome almost certainly wouldn't have changed even with a
       run-off.    There were a few other ridings in the first three
       provinces I've looked at where the winner got under 50%; but
       none was close enough that anyone could claim the Conservative
       would have won in a run-off -- not in the ridings I've looked at
       so far.
       Being satirical about it, perhaps if the NDP could convince
       Conservatives to vote against the Liberals, the NDP could win
       more seats.  In the riding of Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook in
       Nova Scotia,  the NDP came in second with 34.39%.  The Liberal
       won with under 50% -- 47.95% to be precise.  If all the
       Conservatives had voted for the NDP, the NDP  would have had
       over 50%.
       [quote]Still, both dominant parties are more centrist than apart
       ideologically. It's the NDP that Canadians appear not to want
       since it appears to many as too far left.[/quote]It looks to me
       as if the Democratic Party here in the US may be venturing too
       far to the left.   There are candidates from ultra-liberal
       districts trying to push the party that way.   I think that they
       were already too far left of center when Trump won.  Now some
       want to go further to the left.
       [quote]Who could replace Trudeau in the Liberal Party even if he
       were turfed from caucus as leader? Jody Raybold? I'm supposing
       most voters don't care about the Lavalin affair and had never
       heard of her before this and her dual duties as
       Attorney-General. What are the gas prices like on election day?
       I think Trudeau will win again.[/quote]I doubt too if many
       voters care that much about the Lavalin affair.  I think it's
       silly to punish an entire company along with all its employees
       for the wrong-doing of a few bad apples.  Why ban them from all
       government contracts?  Why not put the culprits who bribed
       people  on trial and put them in jail?
       What may cause more problems for Trudeau is that both ministers
       who resigned were women.  His reputation as a feminist is
       tarnished.   He looks as if he tried to exert undue pressure on
       Jody Raybold.   He can be portrayed as the typical domineering
       corrupt white male, anti-women as well as  anti-indigenous.
  HTML https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/03/canada-trudeau-feminism-wilson-raybauld/584677/
       At first pass, the SNC-Lavalin affair might not seem like an
       issue with a feminist underpinning. But the problem with running
       on a feminist agenda is that when two of your strongest female
       cabinet ministers resign, you face something of a feminist
       reckoning. Trudeau has earned international accolades for his
       vocal support of women’s issues; here at home, he has been
       criticized for virtue signaling. And the question of what it
       really means to have gender parity—not just in the cabinet or
       government, but at work, at home, and in society more broadly—is
       something for which Trudeau’s brand of feminism might not be
       able to provide a satisfying answer.
       From across the aisle, one Conservative MP, Michelle Rempel, put
       it plainly. “Trudeau came out and asked for strong women, and he
       got them,” she told me in an interview last week.
       Trudeau is also in a corner looking as if he's trying to hide
       something.  Scheer is making him look that way.
  HTML https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-wilson-raybould-snc-lavalin-trudeau-1.5050819
       Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer said Prime Minister Justin
       Trudeau and the Liberals must lift a "gag order" and ensure Jody
       Wilson-Raybould can speak the full truth about the circumstances
       around her decision to leave cabinet.
       The SNC-Lavalin controversy has exposed a crisis of moral and
       ethical leadership in Trudeau's office, Scheer said at a news
       conference Sunday in Ottawa, adding an online campaign is
       underway to support Wilson-Raybould.
       "Justin Trudeau must let her speak," he said.
       MPs are to hold an emergency session of the House of Commons
       justice committee on Wednesday, and Wilson-Raybould has
       previously said she would be willing to return to provide
       additional testimony.
       Scheer said Liberal MPs on the committee need to support
       Wilson-Raybould coming back to shed additional light on the
       scandal, suggesting if they do not, it would suggest the prime
       minister "has something to hide."
       "Previously, it was only after intense pressure that Liberal MPs
       on the justice committee allowed this investigation to start,
       and only after intense pressure from Canadians did Justin
       Trudeau even partially allow Ms. Wilson-Raybould to speak,"
       Scheer said.
       #Post#: 21768--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Canadian Politics
       By: paralambano Date: March 13, 2019, 5:48 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Kerry -  ^
       Nice work looking into the Canajun political system  :).
       Ya, we don't hear much about gerrymandering here. Here's an
       article 'splains it:
  HTML https://www.vox.com/2014/4/15/5604284/us-elections-are-rigged-but-canada-knows-how-to-fix-them
       and a comparison:
  HTML https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/25/trudeau-says-canada-does-redistricting-better-we-do-is-he-right/?utm_term=.322d9e6e0691
       Ya, about Scheer. That's what I like about the parleeyment (sic)
       system. You're face-to-face with the opposition answering for
       things. Trump enters Congress like a King to account and he does
       all the yackety.
       I think the Conservatives here would much rather vote Liberal
       than NDP which having an NDP win is a nightmare for them.
       Have you seen the vid of what looks like Trudeau making contact
       with a female MP in the House of Commons? How some of the
       opposition made hay with it! "Physical molestation" (?). But
       what stride has he! Yellow or red card  :)?
  HTML https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FUtCFRp6wBw
       Ol' red-eye para  .  .  .  .
       #Post#: 21770--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Canadian Politics
       By: Kerry Date: March 13, 2019, 8:27 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       [quote author=paralambano link=topic=1386.msg21768#msg21768
       date=1552474105]
       Kerry -  ^
       Nice work looking into the Canajun political system  :).
       Ya, we don't hear much about gerrymandering here. Here's an
       article 'splains it:
  HTML https://www.vox.com/2014/4/15/5604284/us-elections-are-rigged-but-canada-knows-how-to-fix-them
       and a comparison:
  HTML https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/25/trudeau-says-canada-does-redistricting-better-we-do-is-he-right/?utm_term=.322d9e6e0691
       [/quote]I ran across the Washington Post article earlier but the
       Vox article was new.   I also just finished the ridings in New
       Brunswick; and wow, the results there were astonishingly
       different from the other three provinces I finished.  I
       suspected commissions in each province did it, and the Vox
       article confirmed that.  I think the results in New Brunswick
       also suggest that while the commissions are allegedly
       nonpartisan, most people still have biases.   While it's clear
       that Canadian districts do  not resemble crazy patchwork quilts
       but form compact areas; it is glaringly obvious that some of the
       commissions did not give a fig about trying to create districts
       with equal populations.   Such districts would be slapped down
       almost instantly in the US as flouting the "one man, one vote"
       rule.   I've already noted the discrepancies in the number of
       districts assigned to the provinces as flouting this principle;
       and it's flouted rather wildly in New Brunswick.
       The district  Miramichi—Grand Lake has a population of 59,343 at
       one end of the scale while Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe has 89,484.
       That is not even close to being equal.  It's almost a 2:3 ratio.
       To make matters worse, Miramichi-Grand Like is a new riding,
       carved out of Miramichi, Fredericton, Beauséjour and
       Tobique—Mactaquac.  Now if you're going to carve out a new
       district out of four old ones, surely you'd take enough from
       them to make the new ones fairly equal; but they didn't.
       Most of the new district (83%) is from the old Miramich one. The
       rest came from: Fredericton (10%), Beauséjour (6%), and
       Tobique—Mactaquac (1%).   They should have taken more from
       Fredericton which has a population of 81,759 and from Beauséjour
       which has 80,416 and some also from Tobique—Mactaquac with
       70,632.
       The commission looks to me as if it had a Conservative bias.
       While it's true that Liberals won all the seats in New
       Brunswick, it looks as if Conservatives wanted to have lots of
       Liberal voters in Beauséjour instead of risking moving more  of
       it into the new district.  Beauséjour is the most solidly
       Liberal riding in the province.   Other ridings are somewhat
       similar.
       If you divide the ten districts into  five with the most people
       and five with the least, a pattern stands out.  Four of out five
       of the least populous are more favorable to Conservatives  --
       in those four, the difference in results was less than 10%.
       Liberals won but with less than 10%.  That looks like
       gerrymandering to me; and if there is a shift of just 5% with
       Liberals getting 5% less and Conservatives 5% more in the next
       election, the Conservatives will pick up four seats in the
       smallest ridings.   Indeed they may pick up the fifth as well
       since Conservative Bernard Valcourt held the seat until the last
       election.
       [quote]Ya, about Scheer. That's what I like about the
       parleeyment (sic) system. You're face-to-face with the
       opposition answering for things. Trump enters Congress like a
       King to account and he does all the yackety.[/quote]It has
       advantages and disadvantages.  I heard a British MP this morning
       explain how he could be friends with MPs from the other party
       off the floor, but once they sat facing each other they got
       partisan.  I used to watch Question Time and thought it more
       entertainment than anything else.   The party members expressing
       approval of remarks sounded like the braying of donkeys to me.
       
       [quote]I think the Conservatives here would much rather vote
       Liberal than NDP which having an NDP win is a nightmare for
       them.[/quote]Probably.  But what about people who voted Liberal
       last time who might get turned off in the next election?  Will
       they go Conservative or NDP?
       [quote]Have you seen the vid of what looks like Trudeau making
       contact with a female MP in the House of Commons? How some of
       the opposition made hay with it! "Physical molestation" (?). But
       what stride has he! Yellow or red card  :)?[/quote]
       To be honest, I didn't see much of anything even with the
       circles to point it out; but I don't understand why the Speaker
       tolerates all the people milling around. That would not happen
       in the US House.   People would be told to clear out; and if
       they didn't, the Speaker would use the gavel and threaten them
       with the Sergeant of Arms.   If something happened with Trudeau,
       I'd give it a yellow card.  Whatever it was, it was nothing
       compared to Mayor Ford.
  HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDmwte000hw
       
       #Post#: 21772--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Canadian Politics
       By: paralambano Date: March 13, 2019, 11:52 am
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       Kerry -  ^
       Ya, I had already seen the Ford thing. That whole era was mad.
       Mad I say :o!
       The thing is, with the Trudeau vid, what's he doing acting like
       a Sergeant-at-Arms?
       Mayor Ford didn't govern Canada, thankfully. His brother is
       Premier of Ontario.
       People who voted Liberal last time will likely vote Liberal
       again I think. It's ingrained. They likely wouldn't go
       Conservative since there appears to be a great divide of
       perception. I think that Liberals would rather go to the NDP.
       [quote]It has advantages and disadvantages.  I heard a British
       MP this morning explain how he could be friends with MPs from
       the other party off the floor, but once they sat facing each
       other they got partisan.  I used to watch Question Time and
       thought it more entertainment than anything else.   The party
       members expressing approval of remarks sounded like the braying
       of donkeys to me.   [/quote]
       Advantages and disadvantages, of course. I like the idea of
       friends off-stage and partisan on since people do have different
       political beliefs.
       Ya, the braying of donkeys, but the Leader answers to all
       opposition. I'd like to see Trump withstand some of the stuff
       that's said in Parliament. Would he lose it?
       I wonder if any MP's have filed a complaint regarding your
       findings of riding population distributions?:
       Population remains the basic principle determining constituency
       boundaries. Each commission proceeds by dividing the total
       provincial population by the allocation of seats to produce a
       provincial electoral quota. The commissions are then to "proceed
       on the basis that the population of each electoral district in
       the province [...] shall, as closely as is reasonably possible,
       correspond to the electoral quota for the province." Although a
       commission may depart from a very strict application of this
       rule, none could recommend an electoral district whose
       population varied from the provincial electoral quota by more
       than 25 per cent either way (except in very special cases, such
       as rural or geographically isolated areas, or the far north,
       where the variance can go below 25 per cent under the provincial
       quota). The Act instructs commissions to consider "community of
       interest," “community of identity” and historical constituency
       boundaries in drawing the electoral map. As well, the Act
       instructs the commissions to maintain a “manageable geographic
       size” for sparsely populated districts.
       Once the commissions have completed their work and issued their
       reports, MPs have an opportunity to file written objections to
       any of the boundaries or constituency names, providing they are
       signed by at least 10 MPs. Such objections are then sent back to
       the commission, which may or may not amend the report. Once the
       MPs’ objections have been considered, the commission can issue a
       final report. These final reports form the basis of a
       representation order, which is drafted by the Chief Electoral
       Officer, proclaimed by Cabinet in the Canada Gazette and then
       issued by the governor general. :
  HTML https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/redistribution
       What does electoral quota mean? Isn't the variance of 25% either
       way based on that?
       para .    .     .     .
       #Post#: 21776--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Canadian Politics
       By: Kerry Date: March 13, 2019, 8:20 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       [quote author=paralambano link=topic=1386.msg21772#msg21772
       date=1552495943]
       I wonder if any MP's have filed a complaint regarding your
       findings of riding population distributions?:[/quote]I haven't
       heard of any.  You would expect complaints to come from a
       minority party.  In this case, the currently minority is the
       Conservative Party which seems to have done some gerrymandering
       when they did the job as a way of ensuring they continued to win
       -- but they failed.
       If you're going to gerrymander effectively, you want your party
       to win by slimmer margins in more districts while the opposition
       wins fewer districts but with bigger margins.  Republicans in
       the US often used race to gerrymander.  They made some districts
       predominantly  black and Democratic.  That ensured a certain
       number of black Congressmen, but it wasted the votes of blacks
       mathematically.  If a district is 90% Democratic because it's
       composed of blacks Democrats,  that gives the Republicans an
       edge in other districts since so many Democrats were taken out
       of them.    Here in Pennsylvania where Democrats often win
       statewide elections,  under the system just struck down by the
       courts,  the Republicans held most of the seats.
       Believe it or not, the Republicans (under one of the Bushes)
       once sued a state because it said they didn't have enough black
       members of Congress.  They won, the lines got redrawn and one or
       two more blacks were elected to Congress; but it meant in that
       state, Republicans won more races.  And believe it or not,
       control of the House of Representatives hung on it.   The
       drawing of districts intended to ensure black quotas in Congress
       (who were Democrats) also produced a House controlled by
       Republicans.    Who would complain openly?   The blacks elected
       to Congress wouldn't; the white Democrats who lost control of
       the House wouldn't, not if they wanted blacks to keep voting
       Democratic; and the Republicans who got control of the House
       wouldn't.
       [quote]Population remains the basic principle determining
       constituency boundaries. Each commission proceeds by dividing
       the total provincial population by the allocation of seats to
       produce a provincial electoral quota. The commissions are then
       to "proceed on the basis that the population of each electoral
       district in the province [...] shall, as closely as is
       reasonably possible, correspond to the electoral quota for the
       province." Although a commission may depart from a very strict
       application of this rule, none could recommend an electoral
       district whose population varied from the provincial electoral
       quota by more than 25 per cent either way (except in very
       special cases, such as rural or geographically isolated areas,
       or the far north, where the variance can go below 25 per cent
       under the provincial quota). The Act instructs commissions to
       consider "community of interest," “community of identity” and
       historical constituency boundaries in drawing the electoral map.
       As well, the Act instructs the commissions to maintain a
       “manageable geographic size” for sparsely populated districts.
       Once the commissions have completed their work and issued their
       reports, MPs have an opportunity to file written objections to
       any of the boundaries or constituency names, providing they are
       signed by at least 10 MPs. Such objections are then sent back to
       the commission, which may or may not amend the report. Once the
       MPs’ objections have been considered, the commission can issue a
       final report. These final reports form the basis of a
       representation order, which is drafted by the Chief Electoral
       Officer, proclaimed by Cabinet in the Canada Gazette and then
       issued by the governor general. :
  HTML https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/redistribution
       What does electoral quota mean? Isn't the variance of 25% either
       way based on that?[/quote]I underlined what I think the answer
       is.  I did not have that piece of information about 25% variance
       allowed before.  There are issues nationally that precede this
       in the way the provinces are allocated their number of
       districts; and then there are provincial issues about how to
       carve up the province into the proper number of districts.  I'll
       take New Brunswick since I have that finished.  According to the
       census figures I have, the population was 751,171.  Thus the
       ideal size for each riding would 75,117.   Saying 25% either way
       sounds almost reasonable, but is it if we look at what it
       produces?  A district with 25% fewer people would have a
       population of 56,338.   With 25% more, it would have 93,896.
       That's awfully big.  Since there is variance two ways, the
       actual allowable ratio between largest and smallest ridings
       would be 5/3.
       The actual districts range from Madawaska—Restigouche with
       62,540 to Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe with 89,484.
       This allowable variance of size of 5/3 exists within each
       province.  When you see that the number of districts in each
       province creates another variance that creates more inequity, we
       see how the crazy results could be produced with the     least
       populous district in Prince Edward Island is Charlottetown with
       26,400 electors while the most populous district in Ontario is
       Niagara Falls with 101,505.   Those numbers seem put out to
       confuse since the number of voters is not the criterion to be
       used.   Let's use the population figures and not the number of
       voters.  Why confuse matters by including irrelevant figures?
       The population figures are 34,562 and 128,357.  The ratio is
       3.71.
       The article you cited says, "Population remains the basic
       principle determining constituency boundaries."  That should be
       simple, shouldn't it?  It might involve lots of math, but it
       could  still be fairly straightforward.  Yet we see much of the
       article after that justifying undermining that principle.  First
       they allowed the 25% variance up and down, creating a 5/3 ratio
       within each province.  "Although a commission may depart from a
       very strict application of this rule, none could recommend an
       electoral district whose population varied from the provincial
       electoral quota by more than 25 per cent either way. . . ."   As
       if that wasn't enough tinkering with the "basic principle", they
       then say in parentheses, "(except in very special cases, such as
       rural or geographically isolated areas, or the far north, where
       the variance can go below 25 per cent under the provincial
       quota)."
       Next comes what looks like a commandment to look at who lives
       where in order to gerrymander effectively, "The Act instructs
       commissions to consider 'community of interest,' 'community of
       identity' and historical constituency boundaries in drawing the
       electoral map. As well, the Act instructs the commissions to
       maintain a 'manageable geographic size' for sparsely populated
       districts.
       I have not been looking at  "race" in my analysis; but I haven't
       gotten that far so I may go back and include it.   Why?  Because
       something similar may be going on in Canada to what went on and
       is still going on in the US where minorities are "given"
       districts.   That may please them.  It might make indigenous
       people happy to have members of Parliament be like them; but it
       might also dilute their vote province-wise.   In theory in a
       province with lots of indigenous people, they could affect 90%
       of the ridings; but if you put most of them into a few
       districts, you dilute their influence.
       It could work the other way too.  I don't know. Maybe white
       people are having their votes diluted.  What I do know is that I
       see a lot of complaining coming from indigenous communities
       along with lots of apologies and the like with no real solutions
       apparently in sight.    I suspect it's the white power structure
       working behind the scenes to dilute the influence of minorities;
       and the Lavalin affair also might suggest that.  Jody
       Wilson-Raybould is from a predominantly white district; but has
       an indigenous background.   It could be that Trudeau gave her
       jobs in his administration as window dressing and expected her
       to take his "suggestions" out of gratitude.   It makes him look
       good to have women and indigenous people in his cabinet.   I am
       not saying she was unqualified.  Looking at her bio on
       Wikipedia, I'd say she was qualified; but that might not have
       been Trudeau's reason for appointing her.
       Her district is also interesting since the NDP is strong there.
       In 2011, the Conservatives won it with only 35.4% of the vote.
       In 2015, they managed to get only 26.1%, and the Liberals won
       with 43.9% with the NDP coming in second with 26.9%.
       #Post#: 21777--------------------------------------------------
       Re: Canadian Politics
       By: Kerry Date: March 13, 2019, 9:19 pm
       ---------------------------------------------------------
       There is reason for concern about the fairness of the justice
       system when the known facts of the Lavalin affair are
       considered.
       No one currently at Lavalin is denying there were bribes.
       Their defense is that ex-employees did it.  Those are known
       facts; yet no one seems to know who these guilty persons are.
       Lavalin may be afraid of lawsuits if they named names; but the
       government surely knows who they are and has not chosen (so far
       as I know) to prosecute them.  Instead prosecutors chose to
       pursue the corporate angle while the guilty parties seem immune
       from prosecution.
       Also unexplained is how such bad apples could exist within the
       Lavalin corporate structure; and the current Lavalin position
       has certainly not explained it.  What they are saying is that
       they've taken steps to prevent it in the future. In other words,
       "We got caught at it and we promise not to do it again."   When
       they assert the guilty parties were "employees,"  they are
       inferring no one on the board was involved; but that is hard to
       believe unless their board is composed of blind and deaf idiots
       who have no clue what happens much of the time.  It is
       reasonable to believe that the board, while not ordering anyone
       to pay out bribes, knew about it and tolerated it.   When the
       company got caught,  the "employees" got the blame.
       How high did the corruption go?   Were these "employees" who are
       no longer with the company paid for their silence?  Why isn't
       someone in Parliament investigating this?  Why so much emphasis
       on  politics and Trudeau?
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