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#Post#: 12566--------------------------------------------------
WHO SAYS SO?
By: Justaname Date: July 18, 2016, 1:01 pm
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I have no idea at all who wrote this " fairy story"
It's just something doing the usual rounds.
What kind of world would this be?
It may be part of your future. We can't even conceive of all the
changes coming...
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo
paper worldwide.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and
they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the
next 10 years - and most people don't see it coming. Did you
think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictureson
paper film again? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975.
The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law.
So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment
for a long time, before it became way superior and got
mainstream in only a few short years.
It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health,
autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing,
agriculture and jobs.
Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next
5-10 years...
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are
now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb, Worldwide
Accommodations Leader, is now the biggest hotel company in the
world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better
in understanding the world.
This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10
years earlier than expected.
In the US, young lawyers already aren't getting jobs. Because of
IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (for more or less the basic
stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70%
accuracy when done by humans. There will be 90% less lawyers in
the future, only the specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more
accurate than human nurses.
Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can
recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will
become more intelligent than humans, most are already.
Autonomous cars: In 2020 the first self driving cars will appear
for the public. Around 2025, the complete industry will start
to be disrupted. You won't want to own a car anymore. You
will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your
location and drive you to your destination. You will not need
to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be
productive while driving.
Our kids may never get a driver's license, and may never own a
car, except for off-road sports or vintage purposes. It will
change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for
that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2
million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We
now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving
that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save
a million lives each year. Most car companies might soon become
bankrupt.
Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just
build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google)
will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on
wheels. Some Engineers from Volkswagen and Audi have said,
they're completely terrified of Tesla. Insurance companies
will have massive trouble because without accidents, the
insurance will become 100x's cheaper. Their car insurance
business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you
commute, people will move further away to live in a more
beautiful neighborhood. Electric cars will become mainstream
around 2025. Cities will be less noisy because most cars will
run electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and
clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30
years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more
solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price
for solar will drop so much that almost all coal companies will
be out of business by 2030.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.
Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't
have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking
water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as
much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder-X has been said that it will be announced
this or next year. There will be companies who'll build that
medical device (think Doc McCoy's from "Star Trek") that works
with your phone, will take your retina scan, your blood sample
and you'll breath into it. It will/would then analyze 54
bio-markers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be
cheap, in a few years everyone on this planet will have access
to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from
$18,000. to $400. within the last 10 years. In the same time,
it became 100 times faster. Most major shoe companies have
started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D
printed in remote airports. The space station now has a
printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare
parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smartphones may have 3D scanning
possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and be able to
print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they've already 3D
printed a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of
everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go
in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have
that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen
sooner?
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea.
And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is already
being doomed to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There
will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be
enough new jobs in such a small time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100. agricultural robot in the
future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become
managers of their field instead of working all days in their
fields.
Aeroponics will need much less water.
The first petri dish produced veal is now available and will be
cheaper than calves produced veal in 2030. Right now, 30% of
all agricultural surfaces is used for cattle. Imagine if we
don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who
will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains
more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative
protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of
eating insects).
There is already an app called "Moodies" which can analyze which
mood you are in. At this rate, by 2020, there will be apps that
can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a
political debate where it's being displayed when they are
telling the truth and when not.
Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3
months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79
years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing
and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year.
So we all might live for a long, long time, probably way more
than 100.
Education: The cheapest smartphones are already at $10. in
Africa and Asia. It's been forecast that by 2020, 70% of all
humans will own a smartphone. That means, everyone has the
same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan
academy for everything a child learns at school in First World
countries. Already released software in Indonesia and will
release it in Arabic, Swahili, and Chinese this Summer, because
of an enormous potential. English app for free, so that children
in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year...
#Post#: 12568--------------------------------------------------
Re: WHO SAYS SO?
By: paralambano Date: July 18, 2016, 4:16 pm
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Ya, so change happens. Things tend toward Intelligence/Good.
Would you really want to live the backwards way they did 2,000
years ago? They'd probably think we are all wizards. No thanks.
Don't like the smell of horse feces and bouncy trips taking
days. You can go forward but not back once you know the good of
the forward. Of course, things still need to be ethical.
Are you a Christian? Fear not, yes? God is good.
para . . . .
#Post#: 12574--------------------------------------------------
Re: WHO SAYS SO?
By: HOLLAND Date: July 19, 2016, 1:09 pm
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What is alarming about the story is that how much science
fiction ends up as happening in reality. It is conceivable that
it affects even lawsuits when one writer challenges another over
story ideas. How can a writer say that a story idea is
proprietary to the author alone when the idea becomes possible
reality in the future? Fiction and reality become blurred so we
must understand that science fiction and fantasy have some basis
in reality and that it is harder to defend story ideas per se.
Technological development may require an updating of copyright
laws.
#Post#: 12583--------------------------------------------------
Re: WHO SAYS SO?
By: Kerry Date: July 20, 2016, 5:37 am
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[quote]Education: The cheapest smartphones are already at $10.
in Africa and Asia. It's been forecast that by 2020, 70% of
all humans will own a smartphone. That means, everyone has the
same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan
academy for everything a child learns at school in First World
countries. Already released software in Indonesia and will
release it in Arabic, Swahili, and Chinese this Summer, because
of an enormous potential. English app for free, so that children
in Africa can become fluent in English within half a
year...[/quote]This forces one to ask if smartphones can be sold
for $10 in Africa and Asia, why do they cost so much in richer
countries?
I also wonder if all these people know what they're getting into
when they get smartphones. So they buy the phone, but can they
afford the monthly bills for service? It appears not everyone
can. The first case I know of involving the sale of sex to pay
the phone bill was in Japan where a man forced his young
stepdaughter to earn money to pay her phone bill by selling
sexual favors. From Japan Today
HTML http://www.japantoday.com/category/crime/view/wakayama-man-gets-7-years-in-prison-for-forcing-stepdaughter-into-prostitution-to-pay-cell-phone-bill,<br
/>in 2009:
WAKAYAMA —
A 47-year-old man was sentenced to seven years in prison on
Thursday, after being found guilty of violating the
Anti-Prostitution Law and the Child Welfare Law when he forced
his stepdaughter to engage in prostitution in February last
year.
According to the Wakayama Family Court, the stepfather had his
stepdaughter, then 15 years old, engage in indecent behavior
with a man in a hotel in Wakayama City in February last year,
and had the man deposit money in the stepfather’s bank account.
The court said the stepfather told the girl her cell phone bill
was too high and demanded she go out and make money, even if
that meant selling her body.
Judge Shigeyu Sugimura said in handing down the ruling: “All I
can say it is extremely despicable and brutal for a parent to
treat their child as a money-maker and outlet for sexual
satisfaction.”
The Wakayama Family Court sentenced the girl’s 37-year-old
mother to three years and six months in prison in December last
year for her role in forcing the girl to engage in prostitution.
I couldn't find a news article about Eastern Europe; but I found
this in a book about Bulgaria at Googlebooks
HTML https://books.google.com/books?id=x5O9cXL-AFwC&pg=PA141&lpg=PA141&dq=prostitute+pay+the+cell+phone+bill&source=bl&ots=D2pHjs2Aiy&sig=O-aadRzGsa78bqp-JWV0bWMR3Gk&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj73Ojk6IHOAhVMOiYKHTaUCeE4ChDoAQgnMAI#v=onepage&q=prostitute%20pay%20the%20cell%20phone%20bill&f=false<br
/>-- where it states that men often pay the phone bills as thei
r
way of compensating sex workers.
Perhaps more shocking was the case from Michigan where a man who
made a name for himself as working to stamp out vice was
actually one of the most corrupt men you could hope to meet.
From Reason.com
HTML http://reason.com/blog/2016/03/17/zealous-anti-prostitution-prosecutor-pai:<br
/>
Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette (R) described him as "an
outspoken advocate for ending human trafficking and
prostitution." As the prosecuting attorney for Ingham County,
Michigan, since 1997, Stuart Dunnings III spend decades helping
to put people behind bars for commercial sexual activity. But at
the same time, Dunnings was routinely shelling out money for
sexual services, according to Michigan authorities.
In 2001, Dunnings had taken over the prosecution of
prostitution-related crimes in Lansing, with an explicit mission
of cracking down on commercial sex. He instituted tougher
penalties and a program of impounding johns' vehicles. "In the
first two years alone, his prosecutors charged 19 people with
felonies and impounded 53 vehicles," according to the Lansing
State Journal.
Now Dunnings faces 15 criminal charges, including one felony
count of pandering. That one could come with a 20-year prison
sentence. An initial hearing is scheduled for later this month.
Authorities allege that Dunnings "paid for commercial sex...
hundreds of times in three counties (Ingham, Clinton, and Ionia,
with multiple women, between 2010-2015." For five years,
Dunnings met with one sex worker up to four times per week, in
addition to his encounters with others. For what it's worth, the
arrest affidavit paints Dunning as considerate client who tipped
well and acted more like a "sugar daddy" to some of the women,
taking them out to dinners and paying their rent, cellphone
bills, and other expenses, including a YMCA gym membership.
After one woman confessed to a heroin habit, Dunnings paid for
her weekly methadone treatments and attended Narcotics Anonymous
meetings with her.
It sounds insane, doesn't it; but smartphones can be highly
addictive and some people seem willing to do almost anything to
keep them from being shut off.
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