DIR Return Create A Forum - Home
---------------------------------------------------------
Love God Only
HTML https://lovegodonly.createaforum.com
---------------------------------------------------------
*****************************************************
DIR Return to: Politics
*****************************************************
#Post#: 10860--------------------------------------------------
Senate Watch
By: Kerry Date: May 19, 2015, 5:51 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Last time, there were so many Democrat seats being defended.
In the next election, it's completely different. In 2016,
there are 10 Democratic seats and 24 Republicans ones. With
the 2 independents caucusing with Democrats, the Republicans
now have a 54 to 46 lead over the Democrats. All the Democrats
need to do is win hold all their own seats and wrest 5 or more
away from the Republicans.
----------------------------------------------------------------
-
With Barbara Boxer retiring, candidates are coming out of the
woodwork in California to run for the Senate.
Tom Del Beccaro is an interesting candidate. With the early
figures of campaign contributions reported, he's ahead on the
Republican side. Here he is at a Tea Party event in 2010.
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x3Rrw97AhkY
His variety of Tea Party politics must not extend to "social
conservatism" or "family values." Can such a candidate win the
Republican nomination? Who knows? After all, it is
California! From 2010 again, from the website
halfwaytoconcord.com
HTML http://halfwaytoconcord.com/california-gop-tom-del-beccaros-sexual-antics/:<br
/>
Del Beccaro is a bachelor and it is understandable that he is
going to date. But a man who will be representing the CRP has to
realize that his actions reflect on the party as well. Some
examples of Tom’s poor judgment include:
– Propositioning a former Vice Chair’s teenage daughter
– Bragging about casual sex with a CRP staffer at the last
convention
– Cheating on his then fiancé with a staffer from a
congressional campaign
– Installing an ex-lover as treasurer of the now broke Contra
Costa Republican Party
– Dating a woman who bragged about how she Lewinskyed Tom in his
office – she still sits on the Contra Costa Central Committee
– Had an affair with a married woman who is highly placed in the
CRP
While serving as Vice Chair, Del Beccaro has exhibited a total
lack of judgment. Can we expect any different behavior if Del
Beccaro becomes Chair? This is a time when the wind is behind
Republicans’ backs. We should be making gains and improving the
party’s image instead of having to defend its Chair in the
tabloids.
Does it matter who wins the Republican nomination? Probably
not. I think it safe to say though Del Beccaro will probably
not win the nomination.
On the Democratic sides, Attorney General Kamala Harris has
raised the most money; but you can't count Congresswoman Loretto
Sanchez out.
#Post#: 10861--------------------------------------------------
Re: Senate Watch 2016
By: HOLLAND Date: May 19, 2015, 6:30 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote]I've never heard of Tom Del Beccaro, Kerry. He is
interesting and reminds me of Bill Clinton in his sexual
proclivities. [/quote]I hadn't heard of him either.
[quote]I think, underneath, that he may be what many Republicans
actually think and feel about themselves. I figure, given their
worship of Mammon, that there would be the draw towards all
aspects of the flesh; for, if you are continually seeking
worldly wealth and power, it is natural to be seeking the
satiation of all other matters of the flesh including the
sexual.[/quote]I think their hypocrisy is a major turnoff.
These Senate races will show us more about the direction of the
country. A recent article at Politico was titled, "The GOP Is
Dying Off. Literally.
HTML http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/05/the-gop-is-dying-off-literally-118035.html#.VVvhp6nlbX8"<br
/>
Since the average Republican is significantly older than the
average Democrat, far more Republicans than Democrats have died
since the 2012 elections. To make matters worse, the GOP is
attracting fewer first-time voters. Unless the party is able to
make inroads with new voters, or discover a fountain of youth,
the GOP’s slow demographic slide will continue election to
election.
The GOP should be very concerned.
“The [GOP] does rely too much on older and white voters, and
especially in rural areas, deaths from this group can be
significant,” Frey says. “But millennials (born 1981 to 1997)
now are larger in numbers than baby boomers ([born] 1946 to
1964), and how they vote will make the big difference. And the
data says that if Republicans focus on economic issues and stay
away from social ones like gay marriage, they can make serious
inroads with millennials.”
Yet gay marriage is "the" issue many of the Republicans running
for President are talking about. That issue may play well in
Iowa and South Carolina where the candidates are desperate to
get an advantage early in the campaign in February to attract
more support later -- but it may also help kill the Republican
Party.
If that split holds true in 2016, Democrats will have picked up
a two million vote advantage among first-time voters. These
numbers combined with the voter death data puts Republicans at
an almost 2.5 million voter disadvantage going into 2016.
I'm wondering how how this will play out in the Senate races
too. There are a few Republican Senators I wonder if they can
hang on.
[quote]Still not yet following the threads of politics at this
point. It is still too early for me. From what I can see, I
agree with your appraisal of the political situation.[/quote]
It is early. I like to see who gets in early though. I think
people can decide to run too late; and by the time they
announce, they've missed the chance to organize people and
raise money.
It is too early for me to pay too much attention to the various
Presidential polls. In fact, I don't even have spread sheets
made up. If I do it again as I did before, I'll have three:
One for the Democratic primaries with estimates of delegates,
one for the Republican delegates, and one for the Electoral
College.
How both parties set up their delegates fascinates me. It has
little to do with winning the office of President. It seems to
me that states which are heavily Democratic or Republican
shouldn't carry that much weight in voting for who the nominee
will be. For example, why should either party give California
so much weight in the nomination process when they'll vote
Democratic no matter who the nominees are? I would give the
swing states more clout, hoping to put up a candidate that they
would vote for.
#Post#: 10881--------------------------------------------------
Re: Senate Watch 2016
By: Kerry Date: May 21, 2015, 7:57 am
---------------------------------------------------------
I wonder if Congressman Coffman or his wife Cynthia is going to
run against Senator Bennett? This seat is one where the
Republicans could defeat the incumbent Democrat. Back in
January, this idea has been on the table according to Roll Call
HTML http://.
This Senate race could make for interesting dinner conversation
in one Colorado household.
Republicans say battle-tested Rep. Mike Coffman and his wife,
Cynthia, the state’s newly elected attorney general, are two of
the party’s top prospects to challenge Democratic Sen. Michael
Bennet in 2016.
Colorado marks one of the few states where Republicans have the
opportunity to go on offense in 2016, a year when the GOP must
defend 24 seats — the vast majority of the map. And after
incoming GOP Sen. Cory Gardner’s victory last year, Republicans
are newly emboldened about their statewide prospects — and
potential candidates.
Cynthia Coffman was the state’s second-highest vote recipient on
Election Day, and Republicans described her as a talented
politician who could be a strong nominee. Mike Coffman recently
won a tough re-election race, catapulting him to new standing in
the party.
In a Sunday phone interview with CQ Roll Call, Cynthia Coffman
said she had asked her husband if he was going to run for
Senate, but said he had not asked her.
“He seems to be committed to being in Congress,” she said. “I
think we’re both excited about what we’ve got to do over the
next two years.”
A recent Quinnipiac poll
HTML http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2186<br
/> had Coffman ahead by 3 points.
In an early look at the 2016 U.S. Senate race in Colorado, U.S.
Rep. Michael Coffman, a Republican, runs better than his wife,
State Attorney General Cynthia Coffman, against Democratic
incumbent U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet. Matchups show:
Michael Coffman gets 43 percent to Bennet's 40 percent.
Bennet leads Cynthia Coffman 44 - 36 percent.
Meanwhile the only Republicans running are Tea Party types.
Perhaps the most interesting is the newly elected County
Commissioner from El Paso County. He was on the Colorado
Springs City Council for over ten years and then ran for County
Commissioner. From gazette.com
HTML http://gazette.com/glenn-early-announcement-for-u.s.-senate-run-shows-he-is-very-serious/article/1544655:
Just days after he was officially sworn in for his second term
as an El Paso County Commissioner, Darryl Glenn announced
Thursday that he will run for U.S. Senate in 2016.
Glenn, who represents District 1 on the board of county
commissioners, said he believes his experience in local
politics, including meeting and working with people during the
Black Forest fire, makes him qualified to lead on the national
level.
What's interesting is that he's a black Tea Party politician.
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kpPt7w_ALg
Also interesting was his attitude towards gays and lesbians
being allowed to participate in a summer festival that was to
promote diversity. Yes! Glenn was worried they might use the
event to promote legalizing gay marriage in Colorado according
to the Denver Post
HTML http://www.denverpost.com/ci_5742634?source=rss:
Colorado Springs - This city's battles over gay and lesbian
issues have been long fought by those carrying the rainbow flag.
The fight took on a new complexion Tuesday as men in suits -
backed by some of the city's most powerful people - urged
inclusiveness for gays and lesbians at a summer festival
celebrating cultural diversity.
At issue was whether the City Council would sponsor the festival
by waiving $8,700 in costs for park rental, barricades and
police service.
On April 9, when the issue first came to light, council members
Margaret Radford and Darryl Glenn questioned whether gays and
lesbians would participate and whether the event would be a
forum to tout a political agenda. Glenn worried gays might use
the event to promote gay marriage.
Radford said: "When a large portion of this community does not
support gay and lesbian viewpoints, I don't see us putting tax
dollars into supporting that direction."
But on Tuesday, the council voted unanimously to sponsor the
Aug. 18 festival, which will include cultural dancers, ethnic
food, music and dancing. Event backers heralded the vote as a
step toward diluting the perception of Colorado Springs as an
unwelcoming community.
"We're one community, so we're very pleased ... any contrarian
vote may have been a negative sound bite out there, and that's
what we're trying to avoid," said Will Temby, CEO of the Greater
Colorado Springs Chamber of Commerce.
Oh my. They let them participate and now gay marriage is legal
in Colorado!
----------------------
Michael Kinlaw, one of the other candidates has never held any
office but that's not stopping him from running for the Senate.
I wonder if this means he's suspending his campaign for
President?
HTML http://2016.republican-candidates.org/Kinlaw/
I can't find out too much about Charles Ehler, the other
candidate -- but he's on Facebook -- I think this is him:
HTML https://www.facebook.com/charlie.ehler
My guess is if Coffman enters the race, he'd win the primary and
Bennett could be in real trouble. Glenn had a charming style
about him in that speech; and if Coffman doesn't run, Glenn
would probably win unless another Republican runs. Whether he
could win against Bennett? I don't think race would be a factor
to be honest. Money might be more important. If Republicans
really want more blacks and other minorities interested in their
party and really would like to pick up this seat, they might be
willing a lot of money in Colorado supporting Glenn if he's the
candidate.
#Post#: 10882--------------------------------------------------
Re: Senate Watch 2016
By: Kerry Date: May 21, 2015, 10:30 am
---------------------------------------------------------
The only other Democratic seat that looks as if it could be
vulnerable is in Nevada where Senator Reid is retiring. The
state's voting pattern tilts slightly Democratic but only very
slightly. The Democrat running is former Attorney General
Catherine Cortez Masto. Supposedly, Reid hand-picked her. She
won her first state wide race for Attorney General in 2006
getting 59% of the vote and was reelected in 2010 with 53%. Her
reputation may have been tarnished in 2012 with allegations
against her saying she had abused the office. Charges were that
she had "illegally backdated court filings, withheld evidence,
committed Brady law violations and retaliated against
whistle-blowers, including taxpayer-funded vendettas, threats
and intimidation." Who knows?
In her favor, she's Hispanic and that doesn't hurt since people
of Mexican background make up over 20% of the population.
Bob Beers is the Republican. He's run for Governor but came in
second in the Republican primary. He's currently a member of
the Las Vegas City Council, but has experience in both the state
House and Senate. He has a strong background in business.
So that's the two Democratic seats that look vulnerable. Right
now, it looks as if six Republican seats are.
#Post#: 10921--------------------------------------------------
Re: Senate Watch 2016
By: Kerry Date: May 30, 2015, 6:25 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Some races will almost surely be boring. Let's take some where
incumbent Democrats are running.
Senator Schatz in Hawaii has no opposition at all yet The state
leans so heavily Democratic, it's almost pointless for a
Republican (or anyone else) to run.
Senator Wyden from Oregon is also running unopposed so far.
The race in Maryland may be more interesting since Senator
Mikulski is retiring and two Congressmen are running there --
Van Hollen of the 8th and Edwards of the 4th. There is a third
Democrat running and two Republicans too as well as an
independent; but the real race will be the Democratic primary.
Senator Leahy from Vermont has one person running against him,
but it's not a Democrat or Republican. It's someone on the
Marijuana Party.
Senator Murray from Washington has one independent running
against her so far.
In Connecticut, Senator Blumenthal has one Republican
challenger. That's August Wolf, best known for his
participation in the Olympics. From ctnews.com
HTML http://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/archives/entry/former_olympian_enters_2016_u.s._senate_race/:
August Wolf, a Stamford resident who finished fourth in the shot
put in the 1984 Summer Olympics, has never held public office
before, but is ready to take on one of Connecticut’s most
popular politicians.
“Connecticut can do so much better,” Wolf said in a press
release announcing his candidacy. “We are a hardy, can-do
people, yet our current voice in the U.S. Senate seems resigned
to American decline.”
Wolf, 53, said it’s his time to give back to his community by
running for office. A registered investment advisor, Wolf has
four children. He graduated from Princeton University’s Woodrow
Wilson School, where he studied public affairs.
He is the second Republican to announce his intention to
challenge Blumenthal. The first is former gubernatorial
candidate Joe Visconti, who ended his long-shot candidacy two
days before the 2014 election.
Visconti, a West Hartford resident, has said he would enter the
U.S. Senate race if the Republican Party fails to endorse a
truly Republican candidate.
The good news might be that maybe Linda McMahon won't be
running again. The amount of money she spent trying to get
elected was astounding! So this time, maybe it's not going to
be someone connected with professional wrestling but someone
with experience throwing the shot put in the Olympics.
There is a Republican running in New York against Senator
Schumer, but what are the odds there of a Republican winning?
#Post#: 10924--------------------------------------------------
Re: Senate Watch 2016
By: Kerry Date: May 31, 2015, 6:56 am
---------------------------------------------------------
I think six Republican seats could be classified as vulnerable
and too close to call.
Ex-Senator Feingold is running again for the seat in Wisconsin
held now by Senator Johnson. Johnson defeated him in 2010 52%
to 47%. Sentiment has changed considerably with the latest poll
in April giving Feinstein a 54% to 38% advantage. This is one
of two seats I consider losses already by the Republicans since
Wisconsin usually tilts Democratic a little (D+2).
The other race I consider already lost is in Illinois, a state
that typically votes Democratic anyway (D+8). I haven't seen
any polls yet; but one-term Senator Kirk will have his hands
full since newly elected Congresswoman Tammy is not running for
re-election in the 8th district but running against Kirk for the
Senate seat once held by President Obama. The early campaign
funding reports show Duckworth slightly ahead of Kirk; and I
theorize too that the Democrats will be willing to dump a lot of
money into this race if needed while Republicans may be
reluctant. There is another Democrat running and there is
another Republican, but Duckworth and Kirk will likely be the
candidates who win in the primary.
That leaves four incumbent Republicans in races I have as too
close to call. With the Democratic seat also classified that
way, there are five seats I have not yet felt confident enough
to make a prediction. Incumbents have advantages though; so it
doesn't look to me as if Democrats are going to win control over
the Senate.
Will Rubio really retire to run for President? He says so; but
it's early yet. Republican Congressman DeSantis of the 6th and
Democrat Murphy of the 18th are running for the seat. Of
course, they could withdraw to run for their Congressional seats
if Rubio drops out of the Presidential race and then runs again
for his Senate seat. There are other people running too, but
those two are the major contenders. So far, the Democrat is
way ahead in financing. The state does tilt slightly to
Republican though (R+2), and remember it's Florida where almost
anything is possible.
I have Senator Grassley in Iowa also in a tight race since Iowa
typically leans slightly Democratic; but so far, he doesn't seem
to face any big names.
Senator Ayotte in New Hampshire doesn't have any Democrat or
Republican challengers so far; but one poll had her losing by 11
points in match with someone who hasn't officially decided to
run. That doesn't look good for her in a state that tilts
slightly Democratic.
Then there's Senator Portland from Ohio. He has all kinds of
people running against him. There are three Republicans running
against him in the primary and three Democrats. Ex-Governor
Strickland is running, and I expect him to win the Democratic
primary and possibly defeat Portland.
That gives me a total of 1 Democrat and 4 Republican seats too
close to call. If the mood of the country changes, naturally
that will affect my numbers and predictions; but at the moment,
I have 47 Democrats, 48 Republicans and 5 too close to call.
Since most of those involve Republican incumbents, it gives them
the edge and I don't expect to see Democrats gain control over
the Senate. If the mood changes, other Republican seats will
become more vulnerable. There are 5 within close range and 2
more a little further out but still worth contesting. In
theory, an upset is possible but it doesn't look probable to me.
I suspect that the Presidential race will affect several of
these races. A strong Democratic nominee might draw Democrats
out to the polls and a weak Republican one might discourage
Republicans from voting. I know what I'd advise the Democratic
nominee -- go campaign in those states for the Democratic
candidates in the Senate races and say, "I need you to elect
Democrats to the Senate. Electing me as President won't be
enough, not if I have to deal with a Republican controlled
Senate."
#Post#: 10940--------------------------------------------------
Re: Senate Watch 2016
By: Kerry Date: June 2, 2015, 10:04 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Some races now with Republican incumbents that look
uninteresting. These tend to be so solidly Republican, it
probably wouldn't matter if Democrats did run.
First the five races where nobody else has announced he's
running yet.
Boozeman of Arkansas
Hoeven of North Dakota
Scott of South Carolina
Thune of South Dakota
Lee of Utah
There are three states where no Democrats are running but have
Republican challengers.
Murkowski of Alaska -- has a Tea Party challenger
Moran of Kansas -- one Republican challenger here
Vitter of Louisiana -- one Republican
Finally, one state has a race where neither major party is
running a challenger but an independent is running.
Crapo of Idaho -- one independent, a state represenative is
running.
#Post#: 11015--------------------------------------------------
Re: Senate Watch 2016
By: Kerry Date: June 17, 2015, 10:38 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Now for some races where Democrats have a chance of winning
seats currently held by Republicans. Right now, however, I've
included these as leaning Republican.
Senator McCain in Arizona is facing Congresswoman Ann
Kirkpatrick of the 1st district. McCain is ahead of her by only
4 points in the last poll. He also faces two Tea Party
Republicans and one independent.
Democrats may stand a chance in Indiana too where Senator Coats
is retiring. Congressman Stutzman R-3 is running and three
other Republicans one of whom is Tea Party. Ex-Congressman
Baron Hill is running on the Democratic side. The state leans
Republican, but a Democrat could win; but somehow I doubt Hill
is the Democrat to do it. His past record is varied. First he
ran for the Senate and lost in 1990. Then he ran for Congress
and won three times in 1998, 2000 and 2002 -- then lost in 2004
and won again in 2006 and 2008 only to lose again in 2010.
Somehow I doubt he can win this time.
Senator Blunt has one Democratic challenger, Jason Kander as
well as another Republican. Missouri typically votes Republican
and the incumbent almost always has the advantage; so Blunt is
probably safe unless something happens to motivate people to
vote Democratic. The Presidentical race may figure into the mix
here.
There is also an unaffiliated candidate too, MD Rabbi Alam,
although he's had ties with the Democrats before. He is an
immigrant from Bangladesh and a Muslim; and he also very well
educated -- from his website
HTML http://www.alam4senate.com/about-1.html.
Bachelor's DEGREE IN Biology, National University
Bachelor's DEGREE IN POLITICAL SCIENCE, National University
MASTER'S DEGREE in Computer Information System, University of
Phoenix
Master's degree in Mathematics Education, University of
Missouri-Kansas City (UMKC)
TEACHER CERTIFICATION, Secondary Mathematics, UMKC
JD - University of Western Michigan Cooley School of Law
(Progress)
Doctoral Student (Ph. D in Educational Computing) University of
North TX
In Pennsylvania, Senator Toomey just took a nosedive in polls
matching him against Sestak. He went from a 21 point lead to a
4 point lead.
--------------------
Now for 3 races where I give Republicans a 5 to 9 point edge.
Isakson in Georgia might be vulnerable if the Democrats can get
someone to run. I wonder if Michelle Nunn will run again. She
didn't do that bad running against David Purdue. She raised
more money than he did; and he won with 52.9% to her 45.2%. At
the moment, only two others are running. There's a Libertarian;
and then there's Republican challenger, Derrick Grayson, who is
not what you would expect from a Tea Party candidate since he's
black. Can you imagine the horror of the Democrats if he got
elected? There would be two black Republican Senators and no
Democrats! He appears to be charming the mostly "white folks"
in this video of him at Lanier Tea Party.
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPhfWmsUYFE
In North Carolina, Senator Burr had had only a one point edge
over Democratic challenger Dave McCoy; but the last poll now has
his 9 points ahead. Again, Presidential politics may be a
factor. There is another Republican running, Will Blakley.
In South Carolina, Senator Scott has only one challenger so far
-- anti Tea Party Brandon Christina Armstrong. She ran as an
independent in the special election against Tim Scott; and this
time she's running as a Republican.
That leaves for later discussion the 11 races where my figures
give Republicans a 10 point or greater edge.
#Post#: 11154--------------------------------------------------
Re: Senate Watch 2016
By: Kerry Date: July 7, 2015, 5:01 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Kerry link=topic=1019.msg10882#msg10882
date=1432222207]
The only other Democratic seat that looks as if it could be
vulnerable is in Nevada where Senator Reid is retiring. The
state's voting pattern tilts slightly Democratic but only very
slightly. The Democrat running is former Attorney General
Catherine Cortez Masto. Supposedly, Reid hand-picked her. She
won her first state wide race for Attorney General in 2006
getting 59% of the vote and was reelected in 2010 with 53%. Her
reputation may have been tarnished in 2012 with allegations
against her saying she had abused the office. Charges were that
she had "illegally backdated court filings, withheld evidence,
committed Brady law violations and retaliated against
whistle-blowers, including taxpayer-funded vendettas, threats
and intimidation." Who knows?
In her favor, she's Hispanic and that doesn't hurt since people
of Mexican background make up over 20% of the population.
Bob Beers is the Republican. He's run for Governor but came in
second in the Republican primary. He's currently a member of
the Las Vegas City Council, but has experience in both the state
House and Senate. He has a strong background in business.
[/quote]The complexion of this race changed when Congressman
Joe Heck said he would be running the Senate seat instead of his
current House seat in the 3rd District. Never underestimate the
ability of incumbent Congressmen to raise money and win
elections.
I moved this race from "lean Democratic" to "too close to call."
Arkansas when incumbent Republican Boozman is running is also
interesting. No one has announced he's running against him yet;
but a poll has him losing 45 to 37 to ex-Governor Beebe in a
theoretical match. I've moved this one to "too close to call"
also.
Ohio seems to be moving more Democratic with the latest poll
giving Strickland a 6 point edge over incumbent Portman. I
wonder if Portman's flip-flop over gay rights after discovering
his son was gay might hurt him with Republican voters? I moved
Ohio to "slightly Democratic."
Florida also seems to be leaning Democratic now, no matter which
candidates are involved. This could change, of course, if
Rubio drops out of the Presidental race to run for his current
Senate seat.
As of the moment, this changes the final tally to 48 Democrats,
47 Republicans and 5 too close to call.
#Post#: 11157--------------------------------------------------
Re: Senate Watch 2016
By: Kerry Date: July 8, 2015, 5:40 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Another Republican is running in Colorado against Senator
Bennett. This one isn't Tea Party. He's the former director
of the Small Business Administration in Colorado; and he's
Hispanic. Some of his Democratic friends said they'll vote for
him according to the Denver Post
HTML http://blogs.denverpost.com/thespot/2015/07/06/greg-lopez-former-sba-director-u-s-senate/121794/.<br
/>
*****************************************************
DIR Next Page