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DIR Return to: Futbol Lock Picks & Discussion
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#Post#: 103--------------------------------------------------
8/21 Plays
DIR By: jHORNalist
Date: August 20, 2013, 9:55 pm
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Got a lock for you boys. Hope your books have this game.
Singapore S-League:
Tampines Rovers ML -125 vs. Alibrex Niigata
I just crunched some numbers, and this has a Tampines (Tampons,
Tomato, Tomahto) win written all over it.
Here is a line view of the last 20 matchups between these two
teams dating back to July 2006, which was the last time these
two teams had a draw. T for Tampines, A for Alibrex:
TAATT TTTTT ATTTT TTTTD
Tampines is the clear favorite, although Alibrex did manage a
4-3 win at Tampines late last season. Since then, Tampines is
unbeaten in its last 10 home games and winners of nine of those.
Tampines has won eight of the last 11 matchups by an average of
2.18 to 1.00
Alibrex does play a good defense, has only given up 15 goals in
19 games this season, but with just 22 goals for, it is tied for
third-worst in a league of 12. Meanwhile, Tampines leads the
league with 36 goals -- five more than the next highest-scoring
team. At home, Tampines holds a 20/5 GF/GA ratio.
Love the history here, and love the play. The o2.5 -135 is not
bad either, but Tampines has sprinkled some 1-0, 2-0 wins in
there. To be fair, each of the last four fixtures that was
played at Tampines' home stadium has averaged 4.5 goals.
630 AM CST kickoff, so get it in early if you can.
#Post#: 104--------------------------------------------------
Re: 8/21 Plays
DIR By: jHORNalist
Date: August 20, 2013, 10:20 pm
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Gonna lock up a second play tomorrow morning. This is a 1030 AM
CST kickoff in Finland's Veikkausliiga.
Mariehamn/JJK o2.5 -130
Odds are not the most ideal, but the numbers do not lie.
Since may 2009, the first year JJK was in the top flight (Winner
initial comes first, home side is second)
2-0M JJK
3-1M M
2-0M JJK
3-2M M
2-1J JJK
2-2M M
2-0J JJK
5-2J JJK
3-3D M
3-2J JJK
2-2D M
3-2J JJK
4.08 goals per game in last 12 games
5.4 goals per game in last 5 games
last five games at Mariehamn's home ground, 4.6 goals per game
Mariehamn has given up 22 goals at home this season, eight more
than the next closest
JJK is tied for the worst GA with 23, the next closest has 17.
JJK is last in the league with -17 GD.
Mariehamn is second in the league with 33 goals, through 23
games
The numbers speak for themselves, IMO.
#Post#: 105--------------------------------------------------
Re: 8/21 Plays
DIR By: ChiTownYid11
Date: August 20, 2013, 11:21 pm
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For you 5dimers, they do usually post Singapore lines. I do not
see it up yet, but for you early risers, it may be there a
little before game time.
I also found a lock for the early birds.
Gamba Osaka vs Gainare Tottori Over 3 @ -113
This game is going off at 5:30am so get it in now.
Gamba Osaka has been an over machine for the past couple years.
This team was consistently hitting overs in the J1 league, and
now that they have dropped to J2 they are continuing their goal
scoring ways. Playing the Gamba overs was an original lock
thread favorite, and I am going to continue you that trend here.
4 of Gamba's last 5 have hit 3 or more, but the real stat is
their road play. If you look at their last 5 away games, they
have managed to go over 4 out of 5, with 3 of those 4 hitting 5
or more. They absolutely demolished Gifu, who sit dead last in
the table. Who is right above them in the table you ask? Yep you
guessed it, Gainare.
Gamba has scored 35 goals on the road this season, 8 more than
they have scored at home. They have also given up 19 goals on
the road, which is 9 more than they have at home. They also
possess the second leading scorer in the league, the Brazilian
Leandro. He is a goal away from hitting his yearly total from
last year. They also have 3 players who have 6 or more as well.
Gainare have only held an opponent scoreless twice in their past
10 games. That will not happen against Gamba.
To be honest, I think Gamba could hit this over by themselves.
Add that to their poor road defense and we've got the over
locked up here easy.
Get on this one boys!
Lot of action tomorrow, and I know Kiwan will be all over his
Barca boys.
Lets make that loot! Good Luck!
#Post#: 106--------------------------------------------------
Re: 8/21 Plays
DIR By: ChiTownYid11
Date: August 21, 2013, 9:34 pm
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Gonna lock up a late night play guys.
Portland Timbers ML -122 vs Real Salt Lake
Portland is a very strong team at home, and they sit in third
place with a +12 GD. They have won 4 of their last 5 games at
home, and will face off tonight against 1st place Real Salt
Lake. Portland have given up only 8 goals at home this season
through 11 home games, and have scored 19 goals. Real are coming
off a 4-2 road loss to the Galaxy, and I see them slipping up
again tonight with a weakened lineup. Real have scored 22 goals
on the road, but will miss a big time threat up front in this
match.
Real Salt Lake's leading scorer Alvaro Saborio will miss this
match, as well as US International keeper Nick Rimando. These
are two big losses for Real, and the current line is reflecting
these absences.
This is a great chance for Portland to climb in the standings,
and I think they come out strong and get the job done in front
of one of the best MLS home crowds.
Good Luck!
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