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#Post#: 45742--------------------------------------------------
Re: New covid variant - huge evolutionary leap
DIR By: animaniactoo
Date: November 27, 2021, 9:52 am
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TY, PB. I'll be keeping an eye out for the expected data and
adjusting our own risk in the meantime (since we just had a mini
flood of "Yay! We can go places again!" tourists).
#Post#: 45746--------------------------------------------------
Re: New covid variant - huge evolutionary leap
DIR By: Heron
Date: November 27, 2021, 10:24 am
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The ironic thing is that South African residents wouldn't be
facing travel bans, if their public health officials weren't
doing such a good job of tracking new variants!
#Post#: 45753--------------------------------------------------
Re: New covid variant - huge evolutionary leap
DIR By: PalomaBlanca
Date: November 27, 2021, 10:49 am
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--- Quote from: Heron link ---
>
> I find it best to wait for the evidence, rather than seeking
out info before the evidence comes in. There's plenty enough to
keep the anxiety hamsters occupied as it is! And it's not as
though any scary Covid news is going to slip past us.
>
> No offense meant, Paloma. We all have to do what we need to in
order to get through this. Hang in there!
>
--- End Quote ---
[size=12pt]None taken. :) I value what people in here think and
how they respond. Putting things down in this thread kept it
from being part of the daily thread while allowing people to
chat. Or not!
#Post#: 45777--------------------------------------------------
Re: New covid variant - huge evolutionary leap
DIR By: offtopicalways
Date: November 27, 2021, 1:15 pm
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--- Quote from: PalomaBlanca link ---
>
> [quote author=Heron link=topic=548.msg45739#msg45739
date=1638027685]
> I find it best to wait for the evidence, rather than seeking
out info before the evidence comes in. There's plenty enough to
keep the anxiety hamsters occupied as it is! And it's not as
though any scary Covid news is going to slip past us.
>
> No offense meant, Paloma. We all have to do what we need to in
order to get through this. Hang in there!
>
--- End Quote ---
[size=12pt]None taken. :) I value what people in here think and
how they respond. Putting things down in this thread kept it
from being part of the daily thread while allowing people to
chat. Or not!
[/quote]
It can be really difficult to get good evidence, especially
because the US is still not sequencing and testing nearly as
much as other countries. With exponential growth, plans at least
need to be in place before things get out of control. It's
possible that there is a lot of behind the scenes planning
happening.
Another less urgent, but alarming thing I read is that the Merck
treatment for Covid is not only less effective than originally
thought, but could facilitate variants. I don't know if this is
an example of the general race between diseases and treatments,
or specific to Covid.
#Post#: 45841--------------------------------------------------
Re: New covid variant - huge evolutionary leap
DIR By: PalomaBlanca
Date: November 27, 2021, 7:38 pm
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@offtopicalways: It's disappointing when a promising treatment
isn't as promising as we had hoped.
But on the up side, the Pfizer-developed Paxlovid is still
showing as being 89% effective against hospitalization and
death. The only issue will be getting enough of it to people.
There's supposed to be 180,000 treatments available by the end
of the year, and 50 million by the end of 2022.
HTML https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/18/biden-administration-buys-10-million-courses-of-pfizer-covid-treatment-pill.html
#Post#: 45852--------------------------------------------------
Re: New covid variant - huge evolutionary leap
DIR By: offtopicalways
Date: November 27, 2021, 9:27 pm
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--- Quote from: PalomaBlanca link ---
>
> [member=181]offtopicalways[/member]: It's disappointing when
a promising treatment isn't as promising as we had hoped.
> But on the up side, the Pfizer-developed Paxlovid is still
showing as being 89% effective against hospitalization and
death. The only issue will be getting enough of it to people.
There's supposed to be 180,000 treatments available by the end
of the year, and 50 million by the end of 2022.
>
>
>
>
HTML https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/18/biden-administration-buys-10-million-courses-of-pfizer-covid-treatment-pill.html
>
--- End Quote ---
That is good news; thanks for posting it.
#Post#: 45880--------------------------------------------------
Re: New covid variant - huge evolutionary leap
DIR By: Heron
Date: November 28, 2021, 8:25 am
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[size=12pt]One possibility is that Omicron is more easily
transmissible, AND less likely to kill us. The speed with which
scientists are analyzing it is quite something! I wish they
weren't having to do so, though.
#Post#: 46037--------------------------------------------------
Re: New covid variant - huge evolutionary leap
DIR By: Lurknomore
Date: November 28, 2021, 6:44 pm
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And here’s a somewhat positive story about this new mutation
from S African MD who first reported it.
I’m holding onto any positive news I can get at this point, as I
am sooo tired of feeling like a ping pong ball the past almost 2
yrs, as is everyone else.
HTML https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/south-african-doctor-raised-alarm-omicron-variant-says-symptoms/
#Post#: 46156--------------------------------------------------
Re: New covid variant - huge evolutionary leap
DIR By: PalomaBlanca
Date: November 29, 2021, 9:51 am
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The Morning, at the NY Times, has an interesting newsletter by
David Leonhardt. The bottom line: Early indications are that
Omicron may be more transmissible than the other variants but
experts are not seeing more severe illness. In fact, the
illnesses are more "mild to moderate", with the more severe
cases among the unvaccinated.
"Alpha was more contagious than the original version of the
virus, and Delta was even more contagious than Alpha. But the
second of the worries has largely not been borne out: With both
Alpha and Delta, the percentage of Covid cases that led to
hospitalization or death held fairly steady.
This pattern isn’t surprising, scientists say. Viruses often
evolve in ways that help them flourish. Becoming more contagious
allows a virus to do so; becoming more severe has the potential
to do the opposite, because more of a virus’s hosts can die
before they infect others.....
In the initial days after a new variant is discovered, I know
that many people focus on worst-case scenarios. The alarming
headlines can make it seem as if the pandemic may be about to
start all over again, with vaccines powerless to stop the
variant.
To be clear, there is genuine uncertainty about Omicron...But
assuming the worst about each worrisome new variant is not a
science-based, rational response. And alarmism has its own
costs, especially to mental health, notes Dr. Raghib Ali, an
epidemiologist at the University of Cambridge.
I agree with the point about alarmism. Now if we could only
parse the difference between awareness and worry. :)
#Post#: 46160--------------------------------------------------
Re: New covid variant - huge evolutionary leap
DIR By: Queenie
Date: November 29, 2021, 9:56 am
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Wildly making things up:
The best possible outcome for this coronavirus is for it to
morph into something very like the coronavirus strains that
cause the common cold: ubiquitous, contagious as hell, disease
is nuisance-level in intensity. If that happens then it's
endemic and we all just go on living our normal lives.
To me, the absolutely terrifying thing about COVID-19 is the
range of symptoms from zero (asymptomatic) to lethal. If we
could get to a dominant variant on the annoying level, that
would be a massive win for the world.
So. Fingers crossed?
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