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#Post#: 1809--------------------------------------------------
Re: mental master debating
By: Phil Potts Date: November 22, 2021, 3:45 pm
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[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=83.msg1808#msg1808
date=1637613333]
[quote author=Phil Potts]
Yes let's deal with what he did say there.
Looks like once again he was prescient. Taking 1979 production
of 37m barrels and increasing it by 5% per year brings us to 64m
barrels by 1990.
[/quote]
Global crude oil and lease condensate production in 1979 was
56.6 mmbbl/d. In 1990 it was 60.4 mmbbl day. The rate of annual
growth was approx. 0.6%, not his nearly an order of magnitude
growth rate higher.
Data here
HTML https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/annual-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=A&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1609459200000
[quote author=Phil Potts]He was right on target to the exact
year that world oil consumption could not continue at 5% annual
increase and fell that year from the previous.
[/quote]
An order of magnitude out of whack you mean?
[quote author=Phil Potts]
The next few years, increases avg 1.6%, more than 3x lower.
That's crystal ball uncanny.
[/quote]
Hopefully you'll forgive me but I'm not going to check this math
if you can't be counted on to do the underlying data right.
[quote author=JimmyC]
But some time in the 1980's it can't go up any more.
[/quote]
Was he uncanny in picking peak oil sometime during the 1980's?
[quote author=Phil Potts]
Obviously if he wrote in 1977 about how to still be consuming
oil in the 21st C, he never implied that there would be a
complete end to oil in 1990.
[/quote]
Good thing I didn't imply that oil was going to end either. Here
is my quote, which you might have missed.
[quote author=BuddyJ]Well then we can discuss the quote perhaps?
This would seem to indicate an end...an end of supply meeting
demand. This is generally referred to as peak oil.[/quote]
We have been discussing his claim, quoted above, about oil not
going up, and the end to all the world's oil reserves within a
decade or so. Was it uncanny on his part getting both wrong? Oil
continued to go up. Through the current peak oil of 2018 anyway.
Current oil reserves are 1 trillion+ barrels or something like
that.
So was Jimmy uncannily precognitive on these critical issues, or
not?
[quote author=Phil Potts]
Take your hat off! The only easier money than taking Jimmy to
the track, would be if I had a dollar for every peak oiler and
doomer you misattribute The End.[/quote]
Certainly you have changed what an "end" might be, and added
capitalization, versus the one I made sure to define such that
someone might not substitute semantics in order to declare a
belated victory for poor Jimmy.
Good thing some of us do mats and dat tinkin stuff for a livin',
and stuck wit that thar datas and suchlike! ;D
[/quote]
Youre citing the same agency you say gets it wrong calling peak
oil and I need to fish around in their website.
You always say you lived through the end 31 yrs ago, never
bothering to say what this end refers to. It only fits Carters
end of the 80s. 1990.
Now you want to agree that Carter never implied you wouldn't
live through it, only you could no longer enjoy 5mpg and
tailfins.
[attach=1]
[attachment deleted by admin]
#Post#: 1812--------------------------------------------------
Re: mental masterbation
By: monsta666 Date: November 22, 2021, 6:42 pm
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I understand your non-position Mking. You simultaneously believe
that constant growth is unsustainable yet collapse will never
happen because of a bunch of people got timelines wrong.
#Post#: 1815--------------------------------------------------
Re: mental masterbation
By: Phil Potts Date: November 22, 2021, 8:52 pm
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"There is no relation to Carter's claim of the world running out
of oil by the end of the 1980s"
In the last post I started typing "and tomorrow you will be
straight back to saying people predicted the end of oil", but
decided to keep it short. It took you less than a day.
No you did not say anything about EIAs 2021 figures, you named
them as one answer to give names to the 6 peak oils you lived
through. Nobody needs to torture themself as well as you to draw
out that again, you were not saying that someone was wrong. Why
did u say u lived through their peak oil in the time frame, if
they are not discredited? Rhetorical question.
From what I gather earth day did not release a joint statement
signed off by various people predicting the end of the world.
Each person there is only responsible for themself, a concept
you can not grasp.
Ehrlich's predictions at Earth Day are for the year 2000, not
1990 according to NYT
Why don't you apply the same logic you use to say peak oil can't
be calculated correctly, and make environmental protection
legislation the stochastic? Then tell us with the same certainty
that rapid growth, continuing to drive 5mpg land yachts, with
zero protection to water, wildlife, forest, and oil slicks
regularly in the news back then would not have led to much worse
environmental catastrophe.
"my research is in the claims of peaks, running outs, dieoffs
and whatever, who made theses claims, what was the basis for
doing so, did they go wrong, how much were they wrong, did they
appear to LEARN anything when they did it for the 2nd-3rd-4th
times (a popular stunt in the peak oil world), etc etc."
Maybe you do that in your own time.
If you did this here or with those interested in it, you would
be welcomed not banned from serious discussions. I know your
brief is just to influence anyone paying attention to us or
other forums that we are all fools. Method is only of the
Hitler wore shoes argument.
It's like pulling teeth to get even a name for who you are
talking about if you throw out a date, then looking it up and
finding out what they said, which is not a predicted end of the
world or end of oil. Saying you lived through their dates means
you are attempting to influence either the ignorant, yourself,
or both, that they said you would be dead at that time. Then
theres whatever evangelist said Jesus would return soon because
they believe in the edited edition and interpretation they have
of the bible and think prophecies are being fulfilled. They
have almost nothing to do with anyone else, but if they were
wrong, then anyone else yoe associate them with must be also.
You can't expect to take part in a collegial forum and also do a
daily 'doomers are dumb' drive by without backing anything up. I
think the word 'troll' gets over used to dismiss inconvenient
arguments, but if you never explain who, when, why and what it
has to do with anyone else, that is all you are doing.
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