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#Post#: 1321--------------------------------------------------
Re: How Close Is Total Social and Economic Collapse?
By: RE Date: October 18, 2021, 6:36 pm
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Average of 336 years. We're right on target.
RE
Studying the demise of historic civilisations can tell us how
much risk we face today, says collapse expert Luke Kemp.
Worryingly, the signs are worsening.
HTML https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-are-we-on-the-road-to-civilisation-collapse
#Post#: 1323--------------------------------------------------
Videos Show Empty Shelves Across U.S. Stores As Food Shortage Fe
ars Rise
By: RE Date: October 18, 2021, 7:27 pm
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Videos Show Empty Shelves Across U.S. Stores As Food Shortage
Fears Rise
HTML https://www.newsweek.com/videos-show-empty-shelves-across-u-s-stores-food-shortage-fears-rise-1639339
#Post#: 1324--------------------------------------------------
Re: How Close Is Total Social and Economic Collapse?
By: RE Date: October 18, 2021, 7:32 pm
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Seven countries with big (and small) population problems
HTML https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53424726
#Post#: 1325--------------------------------------------------
Re: How Close Is Total Social and Economic Collapse?
By: K-Dog Date: October 18, 2021, 8:00 pm
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Life in the limelight.
HTML https://youtu.be/hQDa4OJdMFo
I tripped his trigger. Got him ranting about Judges. I liked
everything Thom said, But to the original question:
Distributing 1 billion is: 1000 million / 329.48 miillion (the
population) = 3.035 dollars per citizen per billion dollars.
Now adding up the numbers Thom gave. ( 79.2 + 184 + 34 + 65 +
69 + 67 + 34 ) x 3.035 = $ 1615.23 / per person.
So yes, we be played.
#Post#: 1329--------------------------------------------------
Re: How Close Is Total Social and Economic Collapse?
By: Phil Potts Date: October 18, 2021, 11:21 pm
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Small sample is only a problem if he says it represents
everyone or most people.. but he didn't. Likewise, the china is
toast sample shouldn't be used to represent all of us either.
I didn't think the banking crisis and following recession of
2008 was worth panicking over, I saw low house prices in 2009
and bought a rental with back fence onto a road beside a lake, I
was planning to subdivide the back yard and build a double story
with view of the lake.
There was speculation ten years ago on DD Greece would leave the
EU. A new Syriza govt was then elected under the mandate to do
just that. Alex Tsipris chickened out, understandable when women
were already selling sex for 5$. He went for full debt bondage
austerity rather than people starving. Remember homeless Greeks
explaining how they lost their comfortable lifestyle... if they
didn't kill themselves? They probably can never pay off more
than minimum interest to ECB. I thought Greece would be better
looking to China for help, Varoufakis came around to that.
Portugal and Spain were in similar shape. Plenty of economic
refugees from there still flowing. I gave one Spanish GP 50$ to
pull weeds for an hour or two last year when he asked if I had
anything he could do. So, if you say 'the diner' collectively
claimed Greece would 'collapse' meaning no ice in the country,
it makes me wonder if you correctly remember what Ruppert and
all these other oracles said too.
As for LTG, what's wrong with it? The article is talking about
things happening in 2040 with either BAU or big changes. For now
LTG is dead accurate after 50 yrs. Seems to me the international
elite that commissioned it take deadly seriously that 2021 is
the point where they can't just stand idly by.
#Post#: 1337--------------------------------------------------
When did Western Civilization actually begin?
By: RE Date: October 19, 2021, 7:59 pm
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A recent article I linked to calculated 336 years as the average
length of time any given civilization lasts before it collapses.
This seems to be relatively independent of the size of the
civilization or its level of technology. To get an average,
some were shorter lived, others longer, obviously. To get the
total time though, you have to know when the civilization began,
and when it ended. We don't yet know the date our civilization
will end, but can we fix a date for when it began? That is the
question I will examine today.
First off, what IS a "civilization", how is it defined?
Primarily by the development of large (relatively speaking of
course) cities, and the development of large military and trade
systems. Prior to our own, the last one was the Roman Empire,
at least in Europe. There were also the Chinese Civilization
and the Mayan and Aztec ones in the "New World", as it was
refered to by the Europeans. Modern European civilization began
some period of time between when Rome collapsed and the "Dark
Ages" ended. When did they end?
Typically we define the beginning of the Industrial Civilization
with the invention of the Steam Engine around 1750 or so. That
would put it at around 270 years old right now. However, by the
general definition it began much earlier than that with the
trade routes established by Marco Polo, development of cities
like London, Amsterdam and Paris and the large armies that
fought wars from about the 1400's onward.
There are other considerations as well, such as the Scientific
revolution, the invention of the Printing Press and the
Protestant Reformation to consider on the religious level.
These changes began around the 15th-16th centuries.
Then there is the Energy question to consider? Rome and all
prior civilizations got their energy from food and work from
animal and slave labor, and wood for thermal energy for heating.
When did we begin burning Fossil Fuels as a source of energy?
It began with the use of Peat in the Netherlands and Coal in
England, both of which can be traced back to the early 1600s.
The Dutch built their colonial power on the back of the peat
from bogs in the "low contries". They established NYC, first
called New Amsterdam and governed by Peter Stuyvesant, who my HS
was named after. The Dutch power declined however as the peat
ran out. The Brits had a larger supply of Coal, and took over
New Amsterdam from the Dutch, renaming it for the Duke of York.
This also occurred in the 1600s.
Finally, when did the system of Capitalism and our modern
monetary system begin? That you can tag to the founding of the
British and Dutch East India Companies and the founding of the
Bank of England in 1692 by Sir Isaac Newton, inventor (along
with Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz) of the Calculus and Master of
the Mint.
Taken in aggregate, I would place the beginning of Western
Civilization somewhere betwee Marco Polo and the invention of
the Steam Engine and the discovery of the New World by Chrissy
Colombus in 1492. (Chrissy was Gay, a little known factoid. lol)
So put it at around 1600. That makes the current length of
this civilization at around 420 years. So a little long in the
tooth as civiilizations go at this point. It will last a while
longer of course, but we are skiing downhill pretty fast these
days.
Now, why did pre-agricultural societies last so long, relatively
speaking? If you start from 75,000 years ago and the Homo Sap
Bottleneck which knocked down the population of Naked Apes to
around 10,000 Human Souls or 1000 Breeding Pairs and ended with
the Ag civilization that began around 10,000 years ago, you get
65,000 years. These were not "civilizations" however, by the
accepted definition of the word. No cities, no large military
and only local trading. This was "sustainable" living. The
population grew in plentiful years, dwindled in lean years, the
Predator Prey cycle. There were no "Booms" & "Busts", at least
at large scale. It was only with the development of Ag and a
sedentary lifestyle that the booms and busts took root.
The larger the Civilization, the bigger the Boom, and the bigger
the Bust following it. Rome was pretty big, but even at its
peak was only measured in the millions and only took up the land
in Europe and part of Asia. Modern civilization is measured in
the BILLIONS and is Global in scope. So the Bust phase is
likely to be quite large as a result.
There is plenty of good reading on this topic available, one I
recently read was on Medieval use of Fossil fuels:
HTML https://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2011/09/peat-and-coal-fossil-fuels-in-pre-industrial-times.html
Also a recently published book by David Graeber, which I have
not yet read. He died last year at the age of 59. Sadly, I
never got a chance to talk with David before he bought his
Ticket to the Great Beyond
HTML https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/11/graeber-wengrow-dawn-of-everything-history-humanity/620177/
By any measure, we are on trajectory, on time and on course for
a Civilization Collapse. The Limits to Growth study remains
quite accurate a half century since it was published, so does
the Olduvai hypothesis remain largely accurate after 25 years.
LTG did not predict Oil would run out, just that oil
availability for the growing population would. And so it has.
Just ask the Chinese with closed factories and dark apartments
and Brits on the Petrol lines and short on NG for the winter.
In Lebanon and Afghanistan, things are an order of magnitude
worse than that. The problem works its way inward from the
periphery to the center. Here in the Belly of the Beast though,
things are not looking too great either. Just take a shopping
trip to Walmart.
#Post#: 1355--------------------------------------------------
People Predict What Will Ultimately Cause Western Civilization T
o Collapse
By: RE Date: October 22, 2021, 5:30 am
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Here's what George Takei's (Mr. Sulu) readers think:
People Predict What Will Ultimately Cause Western Civilization
To Collapse
HTML https://www.georgetakei.com/what-will-collapse-western-civilization-2655330284.html
RE
#Post#: 1359--------------------------------------------------
Re: How Close Is Total Social and Economic Collapse?
By: Digwe Must Date: October 22, 2021, 3:37 pm
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Thanks for posting this Atlantic link regarding Graeber's book.
Now I've got to get the damn book, very promising review.
“How did we get stuck?” the authors ask—stuck, that is, in a
world of “war, greed, exploitation [and] systematic indifference
to others’ suffering”?
I've gotten much really good information from Kurt DeDecker and
Low Tech.
"A recent article I linked to calculated 336 years as the
average length of time any given civilization lasts before it
collapses."
I was doing some reading on The Little Ice Age. There I ran
across the General Crisis Theory. The 1600s were bad across the
entire northern Hemisphere with population decline in Europe and
China. War, famine, regime change, epidemics - all the good
stuff. GCT basically links these crises even though there was
not much contact between these cultures. The Little Ice Age
corresponded with increased volcanic activity that dusted the
atmosphere. The stress this put on ag and food supplies
stressed the affected governments. Revolts and unrest followed.
The theory is disputed by those who point to a series of
isolated crises that were not linked to each other. The Spanish
economy suffered when the supply of silver from South and
Central America declined. This rippled through France, the Holy
Roman Empire etc. They also point to the rise of the capitalist
northern European states at the expense of the feudal south.
The reason I bring it up is the timing. If this time really
marked the beginning of he flow of power and wealth to the early
capitalist states, it would seem to back up the timing you
mentioned.
Good articles and Youtube documentaries on the subject.
#Post#: 4141--------------------------------------------------
Nostradamus Effect: The Book of Revelations's Biblical Apocalyps
e
By: RE Date: September 13, 2022, 3:01 am
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The Biblical Version.
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFQlNxNZEvo
RE
#Post#: 4144--------------------------------------------------
Nosties
By: K-Dog Date: September 13, 2022, 4:46 pm
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[quote author=RE link=topic=76.msg4141#msg4141 date=1663056075]
The Biblical Version.
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFQlNxNZEvo
RE
[/quote]
RE, are you all right? Nostis are crazy. Prophecy is the last
refuge of the deluded. Quote me on that.
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