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#Post#: 1578--------------------------------------------------
Re: Dieoff Errata
By: RE Date: November 11, 2021, 1:26 pm
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[quote author=Eddie link=topic=74.msg1576#msg1576
date=1636649115]
It�s probably further out there on the horizon than anybody who
has posted so far thinks it is....food will be more expensive,
but nobody is about to starve. We still have plenty of FF�s and
we still know how to make ammonium nitrate.
I�m long oil, gas, uranium, and a few other commodities. I�m
building an income portfolio that is going to flow cash like you
won�t believe.
Nobody gets out of here alive. I will be dust before the Big
Crash.I just hope it�s no time soon. (The dust part, I mean.)
[/quote]
Eddie returns from the MIA list with his usual Optimism. ;D
When you say "nobody will starve" is that Globally or just the
FSoA?
Just knowing HOW to make ammonium nitrate isn't quite enough.
The farmers have to be able to afford it and the population has
to be able to afford to buy the food they grow. Maybe true
here, not so true in India, Brazil, Afghanistan, etc.
The relative security of your cash flow is nice for you, but you
are in an extreme minority, even here in the FSoA. Most people
are quite concerned about the inflation in food prices. I doubt
they are quite so optimistic.
So which horse are you backing in this race?
RE
#Post#: 1581--------------------------------------------------
Re: Dieoff Errata
By: Digwe Must Date: November 11, 2021, 2:12 pm
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I�m long oil, gas, uranium, and a few other commodities. I�m
building an income portfolio that is going to flow cash like you
won�t believe.
Nobody gets out of here alive. I will be dust before the Big
Crash. I just hope it�s no time soon. (The dust part, I mean.)
[/quote]
Is that why a large profit in the market is called "making a
killing'?
HTML https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVxYOQS6ggk

It takes 4-5 years to build a fertilizer plant.
I think, again, that major war is a possibility you all play
down a bit. That would accelerate the process. Just because
such a turn of events would be stupid and suicidal does not
preclude it from happening.
Tell us what the crop yields will be in 2022 and a good guess
can be made as to the condition of the world's human population.
People in Pakistan pay near 50% of their household income for
food. Currently my hay price - if you can find it is up 33%
from this time last year. Oats are unavailable, but would be
triple if I could find them. Chicken scratch (mostly corn) is
up about 75% from last year. What will the people do in
countries where food is a large portion of their financial
outlay if these increases are passed along? I understand that
those who firmly believe in corporate/government capitalism
minimize the seriousness of the global food situation, the
effect of FF on the environment, the poisoning of billions by
polluting industry, the mutual geo-political frailties that will
amplify under more stress and the general orneriness of people.
It's not about us. It's about the grandchildren. Mine, yours
and everybody's.
[/quote]
It�s called making an investment. Taking the money I saved and
investing it to pay for my retirement. Oil and gas is now out of
favor from a social and political perspective, but everybody
still wants to have the lights working and the heat on in the
winter. That creates a unique arbitrage opportunity for people
who can do math and what actually see the world for what it is.
College endowments are divesting from FF�s because they are
under pressure from students. The same students who have very
sizable carbon footprints of their own (many of them anyway) ,
and don�t even think about their own consumption.
I think my grandchildren are more likely benefit from me
directly, than from some half-baked attempts to reverse climate
change, that aren�t even close to changing anything, or even
working.
I�m also investing in renewable energy, fwiw. But the value
right now is in oil and gas. Before all of us are gone, there
will be no more �oil companies�. There will only be �energy
companies�. Big oil is pivoting for their own survival and those
companies are not run by idiots.
When harassed about Jeff Bezos taking his jet to COP26, Bezos�s
spokesperson made a point of defending him, saying that his
plane uses only �sustainable jet fuel� and that he buys carbon
credits to make his emissions net zero.
You know who sells sustainable jet fuel? BP. Yeah.
I�m also investing carbon credits, fwiw. Carbon credits make no
sense to me, as someone who is concerned about the environment
(and I am)....but�s that what these big climate summits are all
about, behind the scenes.
#Post#: 1587--------------------------------------------------
Re: Dieoff Errata
By: Phil Potts Date: November 11, 2021, 4:23 pm
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[quote author=Digwe Must link=topic=74.msg1581#msg1581
date=1636661522]

It�s called making an investment. Taking the money I saved and
investing it to pay for my retirement. Oil and gas is now out of
favor from a social and political perspective, but everybody
still wants to have the lights working and the heat on in the
winter. That creates a unique arbitrage opportunity for people
who can do math and what actually see the world for what it is.
College endowments are divesting from FF�s because they are
under pressure from students. The same students who have very
sizable carbon footprints of their own (many of them anyway) ,
and don�t even think about their own consumption.
I think my grandchildren are more likely benefit from me
directly, than from some half-baked attempts to reverse climate
change, that aren�t even close to changing anything, or even
working.
I�m also investing in renewable energy, fwiw. But the value
right now is in oil and gas. Before all of us are gone, there
will be no more �oil companies�. There will only be �energy
companies�. Big oil is pivoting for their own survival and those
companies are not run by idiots.
When harassed about Jeff Bezos taking his jet to COP26, Bezos�s
spokesperson made a point of defending him, saying that his
plane uses only �sustainable jet fuel� and that he buys carbon
credits to make his emissions net zero.
You know who sells sustainable jet fuel? BP. Yeah.
I�m also investing carbon credits, fwiw. Carbon credits make no
sense to me, as someone who is concerned about the environment
(and I am)....but�s that what these big climate summits are all
about, behind the scenes.
[/quote]
Most people who are successful in a given system are likely to
view that system as more resilient and benign than it actually
is. You worked hard to gain skills and credentials. Then you
worked hard to use those skills to create, build and grow the
business. You worked hard for what you have and the system
rewarded you for it. I absolutely think this effects how anyone
in your shoes views the durability and fairness of the
corporate/government capitalist system. People who benefit from
the system feel like it will go on indefinitely with just a few
tweaks, minimizing the innate fatal flaws. Human nature.
I'm sure you are doing what you think is best for your family.
Unfortunately, your investments buy into an industry which is
deadly to many other families.
Regarding COP 26 and the corporate elite climate summit, I
posted at least two articles here that point out the hypocrisy
of the ruling class, and the doomed-to-fail plans to justify
burning more FF. The biomass plans being pimped by the energy
industry lackeys were proven to be unworkable 15 years ago.
I've been opposed to mega solutions proposed by the world's
elite for a while now and said so in print. Since I no longer
believe in centralized government effectiveness I sure as hell
don't believe in these fluffball treaties. As proven by Trump,
treaties are temporary and can be negated by a shift in the
political winds. I'm not interested in the charade.
It is possible for people to reduce their footprint - but so few
are interested. Doom.
My own attempt to leave something for those who follow revolves
around enhancing the fertility of productive land and leaving a
small slice of it for those who might be interested. The bonus
is that it enhances my quality of life. As far as people not
seeing the world for what it is and being unable to do math -
this is the second time you have essentially told me I don't
live in the real world. As I told you before, I heat my house
with the work from my own hands and land. We grow much of our
own food, make booze, medicine and some other essentials. I'm
sitting in front of the fire with my dogs at my feet, homemade
wine in the glass, listening to the wind and rain. Feels pretty
real to me. But, maybe I should change careers and become a
social influencer. Do something meaningful.
[quote author=BuddyJ link=topic=74.msg1588#msg1588
date=1636678639]
[quote author=Phil Potts]
There's a 1300 mile carbon capture pipeline across 5 Midwest
states going ahead. What do you think about that? Going to burn
more oil and cause more pollution than it saves, like windfarms
not turning in forests? A way to transfer land from small
holders to megacorporporations?[/quote]
The good news being, water protectors sure don't have much to
whine about this time, right? Carbon capture is green! Well,
unless it is captured to make fizzy drinks anyway, but still, if
it leaks out of a pipeline, it just goes back into the
atmosphere, so no harm no foul!
[/quote]
The land being used for this pipeline is being seized. The
carbon footprint of this is project is stupid. Phil Potts is
absolutely right. These bogus mega renewable projects run over
"the little people" by the van load. "Whine"? Really?
Protestors trying to protect their only source of water in the
face of racist cops, dogs, firehoses, tear gas, pepper spray,
beatings, agents provocateurs and private goons are whining?
How long would you last taking what the pigs were handing out?
#Post#: 1592--------------------------------------------------
Re: Dieoff Errata
By: K-Dog Date: November 12, 2021, 1:19 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=monsta666 link=topic=74.msg1574#msg1574
date=1636637808]
The key is people will not give up on capitalism and will try
truly radical things to maintain bau.
[/quote]
[img]
HTML https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.slidesharecdn.com%2Fss_thumbnails%2Fpresentacin1solidarity4m-160917011005-thumbnail-4.jpg%3Fcb%3D1474074684&f=1&nofb=1[/img]
#Post#: 1596--------------------------------------------------
Re: Dieoff Errata
By: Nearings fault Date: November 12, 2021, 8:17 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Eddie link=topic=74.msg1576#msg1576
date=1636649115]
It�s probably further out there on the horizon than anybody who
has posted so far thinks it is....food will be more expensive,
but nobody is about to starve. We still have plenty of FF�s and
we still know how to make ammonium nitrate.
I�m long oil, gas, uranium, and a few other commodities. I�m
building an income portfolio that is going to flow cash like you
won�t believe.
Nobody gets out of here alive. I will be dust before the Big
Crash.I just hope it�s no time soon. (The dust part, I mean.)
[/quote]I've been watching the runup of suncor myself up 14
percent this year with a 5percent dividend... Still seems fairly
cheap and far off it's all time high. BP and Shell are both
making the right kind of noises about where their future growth
come from. Fossil fuel usage is not going away anytime soon as
long as politicians are talking net zero but counting on growth.
Unlike others I completely get what you are saying about math
skills. 3 years of explaining basic power math to people and
trying to wrap their heads around the unfeasability of solar
only power systems for heating in northern latitudes cured me of
any idealism I might have had left. I don't do stocks myself I'm
not detached enough to stay steady amid the rises and falls.
Right now I'm concentrating on the house which is going awesome,
my family, and repositioning myself to consult for energy
efficiency. Very few builders or alt people seem able to put all
the pieces together get all the various trades on side and make
something that performs.
For this coming generation :efficiency, resiliency and a modest
outlook towards what life will bring are where I'm putting my
energies. I still check in but have very little to contribute. I
guess I'm not doomy enough.
Cheers,. NF
#Post#: 1598--------------------------------------------------
China�s Population May Already Be Falling as Births Slow Further
By: RE Date: November 12, 2021, 9:06 am
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The Dieoff has begun in China!
China�s Population May Already Be Falling as Births Slow Further
HTML https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-11/china-s-population-may-already-be-falling-as-births-slow-further?srnd=politics-vp
RE
#Post#: 1599--------------------------------------------------
Re: Dieoff Errata
By: Nearings fault Date: November 12, 2021, 9:29 am
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How do you define a dieoff? To me it would be people dying
prematurely resulting in a shrinking population. A demographic
shift that shrinks the birthrate and slowly widdles down total
population does not qualify. A famine, a war, pestilence,
suicide... If our societies cannot cope with falling birthrates
they deserve to fail and others will take their place. I would
not mind a world with fifty percent less people if it happens
over a century. It would be a chaotic century for sure but might
buy us the time we need to mature as a species
#Post#: 1600--------------------------------------------------
Re: Dieoff Errata
By: RE Date: November 12, 2021, 9:48 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=74.msg1599#msg1599
date=1636730969]
How do you define a dieoff? To me it would be people dying
prematurely resulting in a shrinking population. A demographic
shift that shrinks the birthrate and slowly widdles down total
population does not qualify. A famine, a war, pestilence,
suicide... If our societies cannot cope with falling birthrates
they deserve to fail and others will take their place. I would
not mind a world with fifty percent less people if it happens
over a century. It would be a chaotic century for sure but might
buy us the time we need to mature as a species
[/quote]
I disagree.
To me, a Dieoff is simply when the Death Rate exceeds the Birth
Rate.
How FAST a Dieoff is is just the difference between these two
numbers.
You can calculate this using a compound interest formula,
actually a mortgage calculator will do this for you. Just drop
in a negative interest rate off the initial number of people in
the mortgage. lol. Drop in the number of years you are looking
at for the mortgage.
1%, it goes slower than 10%, obviously. Still a dieoff though.
RE
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