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#Post#: 1495--------------------------------------------------
Re: Dieoff Errata
By: RE Date: November 2, 2021, 2:15 am
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[quote author=K-Dog link=topic=74.msg1492#msg1492
date=1635825583]
The vitality of life depends on energy flow.
Energy flow against rules generates complexity.
When energy flow
reduces...............................................
[/quote]
True, but that doesn't explain the spontaneous appearance of a
code to BEGIN the life process. Available energy does not
create organization. If it did, lightning bolts would provide
enough energy to create new codes to do this all the time. But
they don't.
RE
#Post#: 1530--------------------------------------------------
Dieoff: Bookmaking the Odds
By: RE Date: November 6, 2021, 1:18 am
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I am now setting odds on what the global population of Homo Sap
will be on January 1, 2030. My odds of making it for 8 more
years to pay off on these bets are about 50-50. lol. Odds may
change as the bets come in, Here are the 6 Horses you can bet
on in this race.
>9 Billion; 20:1
7-9 Billion: 3:1
5-7 Billion 2:3
1-4 Billion Even Odds
< 1 Billion 2:1
0 20:1
Make your Bets now! The race starts January 1, 2022. No
further bets accepted after that date.
*If the currency or commodity you bet no longer exists, your
payday may be adjusted to whatever still holds some value.
RE
#Post#: 1534--------------------------------------------------
Re: Dieoff Errata
By: John of Wallan Date: November 6, 2021, 4:23 am
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I will out 100 south pacific pesos (Oz dollars) on less than 1
Billion and falling fast.
What a cheery thought.
Have a nice day. ;D
JOW
#Post#: 1535--------------------------------------------------
Re: Dieoff Errata
By: RE Date: November 6, 2021, 7:41 am
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[quote author=John of Wallan link=topic=74.msg1534#msg1534
date=1636190604]
I will out 100 south pacific pesos (Oz dollars) on less than 1
Billion and falling fast.
What a cheery thought.
Have a nice day. ;D
JOW
[/quote]
I am not quite so pessimistic. I am betting on 1-4B. I figure
to go down by halves every decade or so. 2B by 2040, 1B by 2050,
500M by 2060... After that it hopefullu starts to level out.
That matches the Georgia Guidestones number. ;D
RE
#Post#: 1562--------------------------------------------------
U.S. household growth over last decade was the lowest ever recor
ded
By: RE Date: November 10, 2021, 9:35 am
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Here, in a demographic nutshell is the root of economic
collapse. Without GROWTH, the capitalist system fails. The
banking system fails. The monetary system fails.
Look at the trajectory of the curve. When that curve passes the
Zero on the x-axis, the PAHHTY is OVAH. Looks like around
2040-2050.
U.S. household growth over last decade was the lowest ever
recorded
HTML https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/10/12/u-s-household-growth-over-last-decade-was-the-lowest-ever-recorded/
RE
#Post#: 1567--------------------------------------------------
Re: Dieoff: Bookmaking the Odds
By: monsta666 Date: November 10, 2021, 9:02 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=RE link=topic=74.msg1530#msg1530 date=1636179509]
I am now setting odds on what the global population of Homo Sap
will be on January 1, 2030. My odds of making it for 8 more
years to pay off on these bets are about 50-50. lol. Odds may
change as the bets come in, Here are the 6 Horses you can bet
on in this race.
>9 Billion; 20:1
7-9 Billion: 3:1
5-7 Billion 2:3
1-4 Billion Even Odds
< 1 Billion 2:1
0 20:1
Make your Bets now! The race starts January 1, 2022. No
further bets accepted after that date.
*If the currency or commodity you bet no longer exists, your
payday may be adjusted to whatever still holds some value.
RE
[/quote]
6.66 billion in 2030 and then reaching a low of 666 million
later in the century. I am sure you can understand the logic
behind such figures. 8) In all seriousness what makes you think
the population will drop 50% (more or less) between now and
2030?
At the moment I feel it is likely (but not certain) peak oil
occurred in 2018. That means growth has a high probably of
reaching some major head winds. Still, even with that reckoning
I feel there would be scope to save the economy enough that
people are not dropping dead in the hundreds (billions?) per
year until further in the century. Me thinks you are over
excited today or had too much vodka.
#Post#: 1569--------------------------------------------------
Re: Dieoff: Bookmaking the Odds
By: RE Date: November 11, 2021, 12:48 am
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[quote author=monsta666 link=topic=74.msg1567#msg1567
date=1636599776]
6.66 billion in 2030 and then reaching a low of 666 million
later in the century. I am sure you can understand the logic
behind such figures. 8) In all seriousness what makes you think
the population will drop 50% (more or less) between now and
2030?
At the moment I feel it is likely (but not certain) peak oil
occurred in 2018. That means growth has a high probably of
reaching some major head winds. Still, even with that reckoning
I feel there would be scope to save the economy enough that
people are not dropping dead in the hundreds (billions?) per
year until further in the century. Me thinks you are over
excited today or had too much vodka.
[/quote]
At least I am more optimistic than JoW, who has us at <1B by
2030. :)
My reasoning is based on the Fertilizer and Supply Chain
problems. A steady decrease in fertilizer available at a cost
poor, highly populated countries can afford will lead to famine
in many parts of the world. Few if any of these countries are
self-sufficient on food, they are net importers already. The
Chinese are already holding back on shipping fertilizer to
India.
An increasing Death Rate due to famine would exacerbate supply
chain problems as more essential workers in many fields die off.
Fewer Ag workers to pick the lettuce, fewer butchers to chop up
the pigs, fewer truckers to move the food around, etc.
Then there is the internecine conflict within countries as the
populations fight among themselves for the little remaining
food. Half the population kills the other half, and probably
eats them for dinner. lol.
OK, probably it won't get THAT bad that fast, but it''s not
looking too good right now either.
RE
#Post#: 1571--------------------------------------------------
Re: Dieoff Errata
By: John of Wallan Date: November 11, 2021, 3:03 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=RE link=topic=74.msg1569#msg1569 date=1636613286]
[quote author=monsta666 link=topic=74.msg1567#msg1567
date=1636599776]
6.66 billion in 2030 and then reaching a low of 666 million
later in the century. I am sure you can understand the logic
behind such figures. 8) In all seriousness what makes you think
the population will drop 50% (more or less) between now and
2030?
At the moment I feel it is likely (but not certain) peak oil
occurred in 2018. That means growth has a high probably of
reaching some major head winds. Still, even with that reckoning
I feel there would be scope to save the economy enough that
people are not dropping dead in the hundreds (billions?) per
year until further in the century. Me thinks you are over
excited today or had too much vodka.
[/quote]
At least I am more optimistic than JoW, who has us at <1B by
2030. :)
My reasoning is based on the Fertilizer and Supply Chain
problems. A steady decrease in fertilizer available at a cost
poor, highly populated countries can afford will lead to famine
in many parts of the world. Few if any of these countries are
self-sufficient on food, they are net importers already. The
Chinese are already holding back on shipping fertilizer to
India.
An increasing Death Rate due to famine would exacerbate supply
chain problems as more essential workers in many fields die off.
Fewer Ag workers to pick the lettuce, fewer butchers to chop up
the pigs, fewer truckers to move the food around, etc.
Then there is the internecine conflict within countries as the
populations fight among themselves for the little remaining
food. Half the population kills the other half, and probably
eats them for dinner. lol.
OK, probably it won't get THAT bad that fast, but it''s not
looking too good right now either.
RE
[/quote]
What RE said and then add climate change on top.
No food = no people, and I think I may be a little too
optimistic...
We get to the same point. Just our timelines are a slightly
different.
JOW
#Post#: 1574--------------------------------------------------
Re: Dieoff Errata
By: monsta666 Date: November 11, 2021, 7:36 am
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Those are real problems but it will take more time for them to
manifest. First of all many governments will simply bail out big
corp with free money when we reach a major snag. If that does
not work then J6P will be given cash to pay for basic goods.
Beyond that there is nationalisation and still further there is
rationing of essential goods so it is distributed in a more fair
manner.
If things get to the point people are straving then there will
be riots. Governments across the world will do everything they
can to maintain their power and part of that will be placate the
masses to avoiding such outcomes. The government's have various
weapons in their arsenal to delay such a day of reckoning and
they won't run out ammo within the next 10 years. The show must
go on and the fat lady will not sing just yet.
Will it happen? Yes but it will take time. Once the system does
fail though then things can get real bad real quick. But there
are ways to persevere. Also if things do get bad expect
manhatten style projects for fusion power, alterative
agricultural industries to be put into motion. These won't
ultimately deliver but the key is people will not give up on
capitalism and will try truly radical things to maintain bau.
Don't expect people to die meekly. Considering those aspects of
innovation and self dillusion means there will be delays that
stretch die-offs for some time.
#Post#: 1576--------------------------------------------------
Re: Dieoff Errata
By: Eddie Date: November 11, 2021, 10:45 am
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It’s probably further out there on the horizon than anybody who
has posted so far thinks it is....food will be more expensive,
but nobody is about to starve. We still have plenty of FF’s and
we still know how to make ammonium nitrate.
I’m long oil, gas, uranium, and a few other commodities. I’m
building an income portfolio that is going to flow cash like you
won’t believe.
Nobody gets out of here alive. I will be dust before the Big
Crash.I just hope it’s no time soon. (The dust part, I mean.)
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