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#Post#: 2957--------------------------------------------------
West unleashes SWIFT bans, more crushing penalties on Russia
By: RE Date: February 26, 2022, 8:31 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Note they are trying to "spare oil & NG exports". Do you think
Vlad will keep shipping them gas if they cut off all the rest of
the transactions? I don't. He'll close the valve. Whose
economy will go into a tailspin then?
HTML https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-european-union-704b3b6678c5d23bd05482c89a0384d2
West unleashes SWIFT bans, more crushing penalties on Russia
RE
#Post#: 2959--------------------------------------------------
Ukraine accuses Russia of ‘war crimes’ targeting civilians as fi
ghting enters Kharkiv
By: RE Date: February 27, 2022, 3:01 am
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Looks like the Urban Warfare part of the drama has begun.
HTML https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/26/europe/ukraine-russia-invasion-sunday-intl-hnk/index.html
Ukraine accuses Russia of ‘war crimes’ targeting civilians as
fighting enters Kharkiv
RE
#Post#: 2960--------------------------------------------------
Re: West unleashes SWIFT bans, more crushing penalties on Russia
By: monsta666 Date: February 27, 2022, 3:14 am
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[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2957#msg2957 date=1645929090]
Note they are trying to "spare oil & NG exports". Do you think
Vlad will keep shipping them gas if they cut off all the rest of
the transactions? I don't. He'll close the valve. Whose
economy will go into a tailspin then?
HTML https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-european-union-704b3b6678c5d23bd05482c89a0384d2
West unleashes SWIFT bans, more crushing penalties on Russia
RE
[/quote]
Yes, Europe needs Russia's oil/gas and these measures will
certainly have blow back however Russia also needs to sell its
oil/gas to the world to bolster government revenue and build up
money reserves. If Russia were to cut supplies to Europe then
they would be cutting of a major source of revenue. Whilst some
of this oil could be sold to alternative markets/channels it is
unlikely they could replace European demand with other countries
so overall, in terms of revenues they would be worse off. Okay
there is the theory they can make buck with higher oil prices
but I am willing to wager that if oil hit $150 a barrel then the
world economy would hit a major recession which would lead to
oil prices catering in a similar fashion to the covid crisis or
the financial crisis of 2008.
Other thing to bear in mind is with less oil revenue that means
less investment in oil/gas production. Russia is getting close
to their own peak oil/gas production so stuff like sanctions
would simply accelerate that trend. If these sanctions were to
remain in place for a sustained period of time then I would
expect their peak oil to occur sooner and the decline in
production to be SWIFTer again harming their economy in the long
run. Add the cost of war and a potential Afghanistan long term
war in Ukraine then the costs to Russia will be substantial.
Let's remember that unlike the US, Russia can't really afford to
waste trillions in military misadventures as their economy is
20% smaller than Italy. It is this combination of costs that
would ultimately cripple Russia and make this a war of
attrition. Who will last longer Russia or Europe?
Yes a lot of what I described would also harm Europe but the
point I am trying to make is that these events will also effect
Russia in a fairly significant way. Putin may not care because
at this point he does give a damn about the average Russian
person but if the oligarchs were to suffer (which they would
under a oil/gas embargo) then that would be a move that would be
politically unpopular for Putin. He doesn't want to piss of the
wrong people.
#Post#: 2961--------------------------------------------------
Re: West unleashes SWIFT bans, more crushing penalties on Russia
By: Phil Potts Date: February 27, 2022, 4:45 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=monsta666 link=topic=70.msg2960#msg2960
date=1645953267]
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2957#msg2957 date=1645929090]
Note they are trying to "spare oil & NG exports". Do you think
Vlad will keep shipping them gas if they cut off all the rest of
the transactions? I don't. He'll close the valve. Whose
economy will go into a tailspin then?
HTML https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-european-union-704b3b6678c5d23bd05482c89a0384d2
West unleashes SWIFT bans, more crushing penalties on Russia
RE
[/quote]
Yes, Europe needs Russia's oil/gas and these measures will
certainly have blow back however Russia also needs to sell its
oil/gas to the world to bolster government revenue and build up
money reserves. If Russia were to cut supplies to Europe then
they would be cutting of a major source of revenue. Whilst some
of this oil could be sold to alternative markets/channels it is
unlikely they could replace European demand with other countries
so overall, in terms of revenues they would be worse off. Okay
there is the theory they can make buck with higher oil prices
but I am willing to wager that if oil hit $150 a barrel then the
world economy would hit a major recession which would lead to
oil prices catering in a similar fashion to the covid crisis or
the financial crisis of 2008.
Other thing to bear in mind is with less oil revenue that means
less investment in oil/gas production. Russia is getting close
to their own peak oil/gas production so stuff like sanctions
would simply accelerate that trend. If these sanctions were to
remain in place for a sustained period of time then I would
expect their peak oil to occur sooner and the decline in
production to be SWIFTer again harming their economy in the long
run. Add the cost of war and a potential Afghanistan long term
war in Ukraine then the costs to Russia will be substantial.
Let's remember that unlike the US, Russia can't really afford to
waste trillions in military misadventures as their economy is
20% smaller than Italy. It is this combination of costs that
would ultimately cripple Russia and make this a war of
attrition. Who will last longer Russia or Europe?
Yes a lot of what I described would also harm Europe but the
point I am trying to make is that these events will also effect
Russia in a fairly significant way. Putin may not care because
at this point he does give a damn about the average Russian
person but if the oligarchs were to suffer (which they would
under a oil/gas embargo) then that would be a move that would be
politically unpopular for Putin. He doesn't want to **** of the
wrong people.
[/quote]
China stockpiled half the world's wheat while the rest of the
world hit lows on reserves right before Putin took control of
Ukraine's wheat output which along with Russia's, is what 20-30%
of global? He made a statement on fixing Ukraine at the Olympics
alongside xi, so it's safe to say you're talking about the
biggest economy in the world being involved.
The western arms industry is talking about ongoing supplies /
contracts to Ukraine, but obviously Ukraine is not in much
position to take delivery of any of it, so the arms and missiles
will go to all other neighbours especially NATO ones on the
border. That is certainly enough cause to turn off the gas and
oil. If they are reaching peak oil, it seems far better to slow
down production with high price than pump flat out with low
price, because it puts trying to live post FF further away.
Then selling oil to Asia at a better price also prevents the
west ever decoupling from their dependency on Asian
manufacturing for everything.
I don't think it's possible to have Ukraine as another Vietnam
or war on terror by proxy, like arming the afghans in the 80s,
with a status quo of Russia still supplying energy needs so
Europe still functions while they do their best to inflict
maximum damage in return. More likely energy will be dribbled
out at record price and sometimes sporadically so that frozen
and chilled foods also at record prices get thrown out and empty
shelves follow.
I think regardless of media hype the ukie army is probably for
the most part going to retreat as fast as the Afghan army did
and some treaty will be signed in a couple of weeks. Places like
Poland next are the real question. If they continue the buildup
and turning off the gas doesn't stop them, they're next.
#Post#: 2962--------------------------------------------------
Re: West unleashes SWIFT bans, more crushing penalties on Russia
By: RE Date: February 27, 2022, 7:47 am
---------------------------------------------------------
I think the propaganda that the sanctions will have a
devastating effect on the Oligarchs by freezing their assets is
blowing smoke. Since they knew about the invasion before it
occurred, they probably moved much of their Wealth into Chinese
assets. The Chinese aren't freezing Ruskie assets.
Far as SWIFT goes, the Ruskies and the Chinese have their own
clearing system now. All the Ruskie's have to do is clear thru
the Chinese, then the Chinese clear thru SWIFT. The only way to
do stop that end around would be to kick the Chinese off SWIFT,
and the West won't do THAT. All commerce on the Planet would
grind to a halt.
On the Gas, Russia DOES have a market that can absorb all the
gas sent to Europe, you guessed it, China. The infrastructure
is already there to do it also.
Vlad did not go into this without a plan to handle economic
sanctions. He's not stupid.
Meanwhile, the western MSM studiously ignores the 1000s killed
in the war between Donetsk & Lugansk the Ukies have been waging
for 8 years. Why didn't Vlad stop there? because unless he
wiped out the military capability of the Ukies, it would have
continued. The rest of Ukraine would have eventually joined
NATO. So he went full on with the BLITZKRIEG and went for the
whole enchilada.
RE
#Post#: 2963--------------------------------------------------
Re: Geopolitics Errata.
By: monsta666 Date: February 27, 2022, 10:59 am
---------------------------------------------------------
I am sure Russia can it sell its oil and gas through China or
other alternative channels. The issue is this oil/gas will sell
on a discount compared to what it would have sold on an open
market. We don't even have to speculate this point because for
many years Iran (like Russia now) has been disconnected from the
SWIFT system. Iran still sells oil but they do so at a lower
price than if they could openly trade in the global market. The
same would likely happen with Russia. Also if Russia do all
their business with China then naturally China will take
advantage of the situation by asking for a discount or charging
a "handling fee" as they would have Russia by the balls. There
are always disadvantages to these moves but the big point is
Russia makes LESS money through oil sales than in a BAU scenario
thus their finances take a hit.
Sanctions are not game changers as we have seen the effects of
these on many Arab countries. The status quo (for the elites in
the country) can be maintained for a long time even with the
most onerous sanctions that won't be applied to Russia due to
its strategic resources. What these sanctions will do is add
additional costs for the country that will degrade its ability
to fight on multiple fronts (Syria and Ukraine). This is
increases the probability of a protracted war and if the west do
supply Ukraine with arms and the Russian are met with fierce
resistance then this could turn into a very costly operation.
Other thing to bear in mind is the invasion is the easy part of
the war. If Russia are successful in their invasion the harder
occupation phase will begin. At this point I doubt the Ukrainian
people will lie down with a puppet government and a likely
scenario is Russia facing a guerrilla war for years to come.
Russia doesn't have the time or the money to deal with that type
of conflict. Biggest win for Russia would be a swift victory but
even in that case these western sanction will likely stay for
quite some time so the average Russian will be hurting for a
number of years after the fact.
#Post#: 2965--------------------------------------------------
Re: Geopolitics Errata.
By: RE Date: February 27, 2022, 12:03 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Definitely the Ruskie economy will take a big hit, but the
German economy (a much bigger one) will take an even BIGGER hit
without Ruskie NG. They will have a hard time keeping houses
warm and lights on, much less manufacturing BMWs. Poland will
do even worse.
Also true is the occupation will be harder than the invasion,
but Ukies are not Afghanis. They are not used to living with
ongoing War since WWII, living in caves in deprivation. I don't
think they will maintain armed resistance for long. They lived
under the Soviet control for decades. They'll do it again just
to get back some normalcy.
RE
#Post#: 2966--------------------------------------------------
Putin orders Russian deterrence forces onto high alert as troops
battle for control of Ukrainian cities
By: RE Date: February 27, 2022, 12:07 pm
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DUCK & COVER!
HTML https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/26/europe/ukraine-russia-invasion-sunday-intl-hnk/index.html
Putin orders Russian deterrence forces onto high alert as troops
battle for control of Ukrainian cities
RE
#Post#: 2967--------------------------------------------------
Ukraine war could 'skyrocket' U.S. gas prices to $5 per gallon —
or more
By: RE Date: February 27, 2022, 1:20 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
Speaking of inflicting economic pain...
HTML https://www.wyomingnews.com/news/local_news/ukraine-war-could-skyrocket-u-s-gas-prices-to-5-per-gallon-or-more/article_46e82018-9731-11ec-ae45-7f1a2fde93bd.html
Ukraine war could 'skyrocket' U.S. gas prices to $5 per gallon —
or more
RE
#Post#: 2968--------------------------------------------------
Re: Geopolitics Errata.
By: Cam Date: February 27, 2022, 5:33 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2967#msg2967 date=1645989604]
Speaking of inflicting economic pain...
HTML https://www.wyomingnews.com/news/local_news/ukraine-war-could-skyrocket-u-s-gas-prices-to-5-per-gallon-or-more/article_46e82018-9731-11ec-ae45-7f1a2fde93bd.html
Ukraine war could 'skyrocket' U.S. gas prices to $5 per gallon —
or more
RE
[/quote]
What's the average right now? Where I live we're at $1.67 per
litre which is almost exactly $5 a gallon. Sure am enjoying my
tiny car. 78hp 3 cylinder makes it not very cool or fast but the
highest fill up I've had so far is $40! I know the day is coming
when pick up trucks will no longer be the most purchased vehicle
in North America.
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