DIR Return Create A Forum - Home
---------------------------------------------------------
Global Collapse
HTML https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com
---------------------------------------------------------
*****************************************************
DIR Return to: General Discussion
*****************************************************
#Post#: 2987--------------------------------------------------
Re: Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
By: RE Date: March 2, 2022, 6:59 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=70.msg2986#msg2986
date=1646263473]
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2984#msg2984 date=1646242128]
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=70.msg2983#msg2983
date=1646230672]
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2982#msg2982 date=1646228442]
Here come the Storm Troopers...
HTML https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/germany-putin-ukraine-invasion/623322/
Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
RE
[/quote]
I read that article.
The thought of Germany rearming and decoupling from Russian gas
is probably sending shudders through your average Russian. I
keep looking for some hidden strategy here on Vlad's part but
all I see is hubris and waste. Having had a few Ukrainian
friends I was always struck by their absolute disdain for all
things Russian. Even if Russia takes the cities if they can get
resupplied it would become a festering insurgent wound bleeding
Russia dry...
What am I missing how does Vlad win here?
[/quote]
I think he is counting on the fact that it's simply impossible
to run the German economy without Russian gas. It is possible
to run the Ruskie economy without German cars.
RE
[/quote]I doubt it's possible to run the Russian economy without
German tooling, machinery, banking, tourism, investment. They
could pivot to china but not fast. It has seemed like germany
was being very accommodating.
[/quote]
Germany won't be making many tools without Ruskie NG.
RE
#Post#: 2988--------------------------------------------------
Re: Stocks fall and oil surges as West pours on Russian sanction
s
By: Phil Potts Date: March 3, 2022, 1:48 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=monsta666 link=topic=70.msg2985#msg2985
date=1646258347]
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2975#msg2975 date=1646046272]
Tell me again Monsta, Who will experience the most economic
pain?
HTML https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/27/investing/global-stock-market/index.html
Stocks fall and oil surges as West pours on Russian sanctions
RE
[/quote]
Sure sanctions will harm both parties. As for which will suffer
the most economically then that is the harder one to answer. I
think it is important to make the distinction between absolute
and relative losses as the difference in size between the EU
economy ($15 trillion) compared to Russian economy ($1.6
trillion) is huge. Because of this massive discrepancy even if
the total losses to Europe are the same then it will hit Russia
harder due to its smaller economy. I have doubts that the
relative loss to Europe would be greater though and it is my
thought that due to Europe having a larger economy they can
absorb the costs more readily than the Russian economy can. If
nothing else what these sanctions will do is to reduce Russia's
ability to finance the war. The longer the war goes the more it
will hurt them so it is just means Russia needs to end the war
fast.
Plus since sentiment is so great for sanctions to happen then
the higher costs of energy maybe more palatable to the public
than would otherwise be the case in other times. Off course
there are limits to what is acceptable but I feel there is a
tolerance to accepting some higher costs if it means standing
for their values. Plus as Steve Ludlum said numerous times; oil
prices can only go so high before triggering a recession in
which case oil prices tank which would be really BAD for Russia
and their ability to funding a war. We should also remember that
62.5% of Russian exports come from the energy sector while 36%
of Russian government revenue comes from energy so anything that
adversely effects the energy industry will have a
disproportionate effect on the Russian economy. A western
recession will cause Russia just as much pain so they can't
"afford" oil prices to get too high.
On the topic of costs though we should also consider the politic
fallout this whole affair has cost Russia. The long-term
geopolitical strategy that Russia seemed to be pursuing
consisted of three main goals which are: sow discord in the
western nations to make them less united, make said nations
question the relevancy of NATO and make people sympathise more
with Russia. All those long-term goals have been smashed in one
fell swoop as not only are the west (or at least European
nations) more united than ever the Russian invasion have made
them rethink the relevancy of NATO with even more countries
consider joining or increasing their budgets (most notably
Germany with its 100 billion euro pledge). The daily bombings we
see in Ukraine has caused people in Europe to see Russia with
disgust and not only will people not sympathise with them but
will never trust them again and consider them liars, thugs and
most importantly, a threat to western democracy. I don't know
how Putin can reverse the political damage this war has caused
and I feel this attack of Ukraine has been a gross
miscalculation on his part.
[/quote]
In the US alone, Putin was more popular than either Hillary
Clinton or Donald Trump at the time of the 2016 election. Never
mind debt to GDP ratio of [s]Russia[/s] The east, vs the west.
Has this changed? Everyone currently in the military or ex
military I know, lament a feminised LGBTQI army and see Putin as
a model leader.
How much cheaper is china going to enjoy energy? 50% cheaper,
100% cheaper, or 200% cheaper than us . I don't see anyone with
an appetite for 3$ / litre petrol and diesel, which is what they
were talking about it going up to today and twice what it was
about a year ago.
Hitler didn't have trouble financing the war, he couldn't get
oil and would have beaten the rest of the west easily on the
western Front at least, if he could have gotten enough oil. He
could only produce so much synthetic. That's one big reason he
went into Russia, to try and get their oil (as well as their
Jews).
This is ww3. As in WW2 it doesn't matter what you can print, it
matters what hard resources you hold and distribute to eat and
burn.
All western arms industry is boutique, it's about very slowly
building things at massively inflated costs to enrich the
corporations. The eastern alliance, not so though. They have the
manufacturing base to churn out tanks, planes and ships as the
American north did relative to the south and the Americans did
again in WW1 and WW2. They've been doing this for the end
purpose, not for profit, for a long time.
A no fly zone requested by Ukraine has been ruled out by the US,
expressly because they do not want to be in direct conflict with
Russia and leading to a nuke exchange. There can then be no
resupply of Ukraine and additional arms if Russia controls the
skies over it. The express purpose of the occupation is the
demiliterization of Ukraine.
Politically you are quite correct about unity of NATO.
Population wise though, the trust in MSM is probably more
reflective. A minority may be normies who buy the msm narrative,
but how many are willing to fight? You need to consider this
from the perspective of if Scotland or Ireland became Russian
puppet states via colour revolution and were waging war on
Liverpool or York for the last 8 yrs and threatening to become
nuclear armed. Would avoiding recession or depression be your
primary motivation? Yesterdsys news was Russian nuclear arsenal
put on high readiness.
#Post#: 2989--------------------------------------------------
Re: Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
By: Phil Potts Date: March 3, 2022, 3:12 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2987#msg2987 date=1646269189]
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=70.msg2986#msg2986
date=1646263473]
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2984#msg2984 date=1646242128]
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=70.msg2983#msg2983
date=1646230672]
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2982#msg2982 date=1646228442]
Here come the Storm Troopers...
HTML https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/germany-putin-ukraine-invasion/623322/
Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
RE
[/quote]
I read that article.
The thought of Germany rearming and decoupling from Russian gas
is probably sending shudders through your average Russian. I
keep looking for some hidden strategy here on Vlad's part but
all I see is hubris and waste. Having had a few Ukrainian
friends I was always struck by their absolute disdain for all
things Russian. Even if Russia takes the cities if they can get
resupplied it would become a festering insurgent wound bleeding
Russia dry...
What am I missing how does Vlad win here?
[/quote]
I think he is counting on the fact that it's simply impossible
to run the German economy without Russian gas. It is possible
to run the Ruskie economy without German cars.
RE
[/quote]I doubt it's possible to run the Russian economy without
German tooling, machinery, banking, tourism, investment. They
could pivot to china but not fast. It has seemed like germany
was being very accommodating.
[/quote]
Germany won't be making many tools without Ruskie NG.
RE
[/quote]
Germany is what, 60-80 m people? Here's 1/3 of the world putting
a few more nails in the petrodollar coffin:
HTML https://m.economictimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/india-may-set-up-rupee-trade-accounts-with-russia-to-soften-sanctions-blow/articleshow/89840625.cms
#Post#: 2990--------------------------------------------------
Re: Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
By: Phil Potts Date: March 3, 2022, 3:57 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=70.msg2986#msg2986
date=1646263473]
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2984#msg2984 date=1646242128]
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=70.msg2983#msg2983
date=1646230672]
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2982#msg2982 date=1646228442]
Here come the Storm Troopers...
HTML https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/germany-putin-ukraine-invasion/623322/
Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
RE
[/quote]
I read that article.
The thought of Germany rearming and decoupling from Russian gas
is probably sending shudders through your average Russian. I
keep looking for some hidden strategy here on Vlad's part but
all I see is hubris and waste. Having had a few Ukrainian
friends I was always struck by their absolute disdain for all
things Russian. Even if Russia takes the cities if they can get
resupplied it would become a festering insurgent wound bleeding
Russia dry...
What am I missing how does Vlad win here?
[/quote]
I think he is counting on the fact that it's simply impossible
to run the German economy without Russian gas. It is possible
to run the Ruskie economy without German cars.
RE
[/quote]I doubt it's possible to run the Russian economy without
German tooling, machinery, banking, tourism, investment. They
could pivot to china but not fast. It has seemed like germany
was being very accommodating.
[/quote]
German heads of BMW and Bosch don't care about % of
manufacturing shifting more or totally to the Chinese plants,
they still make profits. As for tech, they still rely on Russian
rockets to launch their satellites. What happens if half of
Berlin goes on the blink and the answer to fixing it is nyet.
Economic growth is probably somewhere down the list of
priorities after preventing missiles five minutes from Moscow.
#Post#: 2993--------------------------------------------------
European plan to donate fighter jets to Ukraine collapses
By: RE Date: March 3, 2022, 5:26 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Would you loan your $5M Jet to somebody else to fly in a War
Zone?
HTML https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/28/ukrainian-pilots-arrive-in-poland-to-pick-up-donated-fighter-jets-00012560
European plan to donate fighter jets to Ukraine collapses
RE
#Post#: 2994--------------------------------------------------
Re: Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
By: Nearings fault Date: March 3, 2022, 8:06 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Phil Potts link=topic=70.msg2990#msg2990
date=1646301438]
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=70.msg2986#msg2986
date=1646263473]
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2984#msg2984 date=1646242128]
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=70.msg2983#msg2983
date=1646230672]
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2982#msg2982 date=1646228442]
Here come the Storm Troopers...
HTML https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/germany-putin-ukraine-invasion/623322/
Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
RE
[/quote]
I read that article.
The thought of Germany rearming and decoupling from Russian gas
is probably sending shudders through your average Russian. I
keep looking for some hidden strategy here on Vlad's part but
all I see is hubris and waste. Having had a few Ukrainian
friends I was always struck by their absolute disdain for all
things Russian. Even if Russia takes the cities if they can get
resupplied it would become a festering insurgent wound bleeding
Russia dry...
What am I missing how does Vlad win here?
[/quote]
I think he is counting on the fact that it's simply impossible
to run the German economy without Russian gas. It is possible
to run the Ruskie economy without German cars.
RE
[/quote]I doubt it's possible to run the Russian economy without
German tooling, machinery, banking, tourism, investment. They
could pivot to china but not fast. It has seemed like germany
was being very accommodating.
[/quote]
German heads of BMW and Bosch don't care about % of
manufacturing shifting more or totally to the Chinese plants,
they still make profits. As for tech, they still rely on Russian
rockets to launch their satellites. What happens if half of
Berlin goes on the blink and the answer to fixing it is nyet.
Economic growth is probably somewhere down the list of
priorities after preventing missiles five minutes from Moscow.
[/quote]I'm not sure of your point here. Are you implying some
sort of moral relativism here between Russia and Germany? I've
found the wests reaction remarkably coordinated and swift
myself. We all seem prepared to take the economic pain while
avoiding escalation...
#Post#: 2995--------------------------------------------------
Re: Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
By: Phil Potts Date: March 3, 2022, 11:51 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=70.msg2994#msg2994
date=1646316409]
[/quote]I'm not sure of your point here. Are you implying some
sort of moral relativism here between Russia and Germany? I've
found the wests reaction remarkably coordinated and swift
myself. We all seem prepared to take the economic pain while
avoiding escalation...
[/quote]
There is no relativism between "we all" meaning govts, not
citizens and "the average Russian", meaning people, not govt.
Trump won an election based largely on "why can't we be friends
with Russia?(verbatim quote)" Thats the "we" in apples to apples
relativism with "the average Russian." A not insignificant
subsection don't believe we can continue poking the bear
forever, but believe the exact opposite of the narrative in the
article, certainly no moral equivalence. Poking it at different
points next is not avoiding escalation in my opinion. On the
equivalence of tech trade, I don't think not being able to build
the latest VWs is equivalent to not having wireless internet.
#Post#: 2996--------------------------------------------------
Re: Geopolitics Errata.
By: Phil Potts Date: March 3, 2022, 2:29 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
HTML https://moneycircus.substack.com/p/eurasia-note-28-russia-vows-to-complete?s=r
#Post#: 2997--------------------------------------------------
Zaporizhzhya blast would be 10 times worse than Chernobyl
By: RE Date: March 4, 2022, 3:01 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Well now, this adds a nice twist to the game. It gives
"Scorched Earth" a whole new meaning.
HTML https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/zaporizhzhya-blast-will-be-10-times-worse-than-chernobyl-ukraine-minister/
Zaporizhzhya blast would be 10 times worse than Chernobyl —
Ukraine minister
RE
#Post#: 2998--------------------------------------------------
Russian forces seize huge Ukrainian nuclear plant, fire extingui
shed
By: RE Date: March 4, 2022, 3:06 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Now Vlad can turn off the lights with the flick of a switch.
HTML https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/top-wrap-1-europes-largest-nuclear-power-plant-fire-after-russian-attack-mayor-2022-03-04/
Russian forces seize huge Ukrainian nuclear plant, fire
extinguished
RE
*****************************************************
DIR Previous Page
DIR Next Page