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#Post#: 2969--------------------------------------------------
Re: Geopolitics Errata.
By: RE Date: February 27, 2022, 5:51 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Cam link=topic=70.msg2968#msg2968 date=1646004835]
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2967#msg2967 date=1645989604]
Speaking of inflicting economic pain...
HTML https://www.wyomingnews.com/news/local_news/ukraine-war-could-skyrocket-u-s-gas-prices-to-5-per-gallon-or-more/article_46e82018-9731-11ec-ae45-7f1a2fde93bd.html
Ukraine war could 'skyrocket' U.S. gas prices to $5 per gallon —
or more
RE
[/quote]
What's the average right now? Where I live we're at $1.67 per
litre which is almost exactly $5 a gallon. Sure am enjoying my
tiny car. 78hp 3 cylinder makes it not very cool or fast but the
highest fill up I've had so far is $40! I know the day is coming
when pick up trucks will no longer be the most purchased vehicle
in North America.
[/quote]
Here in AK? Around $3.80/gal I think.
When we go to $5, you will go to $7
RE
#Post#: 2970--------------------------------------------------
Re: Geopolitics Errata.
By: Nearings fault Date: February 27, 2022, 7:43 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Cam link=topic=70.msg2968#msg2968 date=1646004835]
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2967#msg2967 date=1645989604]
Speaking of inflicting economic pain...
HTML https://www.wyomingnews.com/news/local_news/ukraine-war-could-skyrocket-u-s-gas-prices-to-5-per-gallon-or-more/article_46e82018-9731-11ec-ae45-7f1a2fde93bd.html
Ukraine war could 'skyrocket' U.S. gas prices to $5 per gallon —
or more
RE
[/quote]
What's the average right now? Where I live we're at $1.67 per
litre which is almost exactly $5 a gallon. Sure am enjoying my
tiny car. 78hp 3 cylinder makes it not very cool or fast but the
highest fill up I've had so far is $40! I know the day is coming
when pick up trucks will no longer be the most purchased vehicle
in North America.
[/quote]1.53 Canadian here so roughly...
1.53x3.78/1.25= 4.62 us per gallon.
#Post#: 2971--------------------------------------------------
Re: Geopolitics Errata.
By: Phil Potts Date: February 28, 2022, 1:09 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=monsta666 link=topic=70.msg2963#msg2963
date=1645981167]
I am sure Russia can it sell its oil and gas through China or
other alternative channels. The issue is this oil/gas will sell
on a discount compared to what it would have sold on an open
market. We don't even have to speculate this point because for
many years Iran (like Russia now) has been disconnected from the
SWIFT system. Iran still sells oil but they do so at a lower
price than if they could openly trade in the global market. The
same would likely happen with Russia. Also if Russia do all
their business with China then naturally China will take
advantage of the situation by asking for a discount or charging
a "handling fee" as they would have Russia by the balls. There
are always disadvantages to these moves but the big point is
Russia makes LESS money through oil sales than in a BAU scenario
thus their finances take a hit.
Sanctions are not game changers as we have seen the effects of
these on many Arab countries. The status quo (for the elites in
the country) can be maintained for a long time even with the
most onerous sanctions that won't be applied to Russia due to
its strategic resources. What these sanctions will do is add
additional costs for the country that will degrade its ability
to fight on multiple fronts (Syria and Ukraine). This is
increases the probability of a protracted war and if the west do
supply Ukraine with arms and the Russian are met with fierce
resistance then this could turn into a very costly operation.
Other thing to bear in mind is the invasion is the easy part of
the war. If Russia are successful in their invasion the harder
occupation phase will begin. At this point I doubt the Ukrainian
people will lie down with a puppet government and a likely
scenario is Russia facing a guerrilla war for years to come.
Russia doesn't have the time or the money to deal with that type
of conflict. Biggest win for Russia would be a swift victory but
even in that case these western sanction will likely stay for
quite some time so the average Russian will be hurting for a
number of years after the fact.
[/quote]
Without a war, say price is 1.70 a litre. With war at this stage
2.00 a litre. Selling on a discount, losing money instead of the
open market would be what, 1.80$ a litre?
Of course this is in barrels not litres, but you can't print
energy and it's not a buyer's market. They're getting a windfall
of something like 80m$ a day as it is.
Western consumers are never ever patriotic with their purchases.
They scream about preserving domestic manufacturing, then buy
Toyotas. Cheaper oil and gas for china/Asia means the west can
never manufacture anything that can compete with imports, even
if the locals work at the same pay rate. Weakening the west to
make it less of an existential threat that way would be worth it
to them.
I'm not hearing any reports of fighting, only that the capital
is, surrounded. There are no reports of mass surrender and POWs
either, even in the alt media, just a handful. So looking at the
declaration that all men age 18-60 can not leave the country,
the most likely scenario is most of the military probably simply
left and went home and were allowed to do so by the Russians.
Next consideration is if the capital is surrounded, is supply of
food going in. If not, they will quickly run out. It might not
even be prevented going in, just not showing up as drivers avoid
the area and we don't know if there is any level of bau going
on. More than likely the country is not functioning as normal.
As weapons have been handed out to everyone who wants them, it's
likely that armed gangs have formed and terrorizing the city.
#Post#: 2975--------------------------------------------------
Stocks fall and oil surges as West pours on Russian sanctions
By: RE Date: February 28, 2022, 5:04 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Tell me again Monsta, Who will experience the most economic
pain?
HTML https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/27/investing/global-stock-market/index.html
Stocks fall and oil surges as West pours on Russian sanctions
RE
#Post#: 2980--------------------------------------------------
How a 1936 treaty could force Turkey to take sides in the Ukrain
e war
By: RE Date: March 1, 2022, 4:47 am
---------------------------------------------------------
I don't think Vlad plans on sailing out too soon.
HTML https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/28/middleeast/mideast-summary-02-28-2022-intl/index.html
How a 1936 treaty could force Turkey to take sides in the
Ukraine war
RE
#Post#: 2982--------------------------------------------------
Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
By: RE Date: March 2, 2022, 7:40 am
---------------------------------------------------------
Here come the Storm Troopers...
HTML https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/germany-putin-ukraine-invasion/623322/
Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
RE
#Post#: 2983--------------------------------------------------
Re: Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
By: Nearings fault Date: March 2, 2022, 8:17 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2982#msg2982 date=1646228442]
Here come the Storm Troopers...
HTML https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/germany-putin-ukraine-invasion/623322/
Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
RE
[/quote]
I read that article.
The thought of Germany rearming and decoupling from Russian gas
is probably sending shudders through your average Russian. I
keep looking for some hidden strategy here on Vlad's part but
all I see is hubris and waste. Having had a few Ukrainian
friends I was always struck by their absolute disdain for all
things Russian. Even if Russia takes the cities if they can get
resupplied it would become a festering insurgent wound bleeding
Russia dry...
What am I missing how does Vlad win here?
#Post#: 2984--------------------------------------------------
Re: Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
By: RE Date: March 2, 2022, 11:28 am
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=70.msg2983#msg2983
date=1646230672]
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2982#msg2982 date=1646228442]
Here come the Storm Troopers...
HTML https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/germany-putin-ukraine-invasion/623322/
Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
RE
[/quote]
I read that article.
The thought of Germany rearming and decoupling from Russian gas
is probably sending shudders through your average Russian. I
keep looking for some hidden strategy here on Vlad's part but
all I see is hubris and waste. Having had a few Ukrainian
friends I was always struck by their absolute disdain for all
things Russian. Even if Russia takes the cities if they can get
resupplied it would become a festering insurgent wound bleeding
Russia dry...
What am I missing how does Vlad win here?
[/quote]
I think he is counting on the fact that it's simply impossible
to run the German economy without Russian gas. It is possible
to run the Ruskie economy without German cars.
RE
#Post#: 2985--------------------------------------------------
Re: Stocks fall and oil surges as West pours on Russian sanction
s
By: monsta666 Date: March 2, 2022, 3:59 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2975#msg2975 date=1646046272]
Tell me again Monsta, Who will experience the most economic
pain?
HTML https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/27/investing/global-stock-market/index.html
Stocks fall and oil surges as West pours on Russian sanctions
RE
[/quote]
Sure sanctions will harm both parties. As for which will suffer
the most economically then that is the harder one to answer. I
think it is important to make the distinction between absolute
and relative losses as the difference in size between the EU
economy ($15 trillion) compared to Russian economy ($1.6
trillion) is huge. Because of this massive discrepancy even if
the total losses to Europe are the same then it will hit Russia
harder due to its smaller economy. I have doubts that the
relative loss to Europe would be greater though and it is my
thought that due to Europe having a larger economy they can
absorb the costs more readily than the Russian economy can. If
nothing else what these sanctions will do is to reduce Russia's
ability to finance the war. The longer the war goes the more it
will hurt them so it is just means Russia needs to end the war
fast.
Plus since sentiment is so great for sanctions to happen then
the higher costs of energy maybe more palatable to the public
than would otherwise be the case in other times. Off course
there are limits to what is acceptable but I feel there is a
tolerance to accepting some higher costs if it means standing
for their values. Plus as Steve Ludlum said numerous times; oil
prices can only go so high before triggering a recession in
which case oil prices tank which would be really BAD for Russia
and their ability to funding a war. We should also remember that
62.5% of Russian exports come from the energy sector while 36%
of Russian government revenue comes from energy so anything that
adversely effects the energy industry will have a
disproportionate effect on the Russian economy. A western
recession will cause Russia just as much pain so they can't
"afford" oil prices to get too high.
On the topic of costs though we should also consider the politic
fallout this whole affair has cost Russia. The long-term
geopolitical strategy that Russia seemed to be pursuing
consisted of three main goals which are: sow discord in the
western nations to make them less united, make said nations
question the relevancy of NATO and make people sympathise more
with Russia. All those long-term goals have been smashed in one
fell swoop as not only are the west (or at least European
nations) more united than ever the Russian invasion have made
them rethink the relevancy of NATO with even more countries
consider joining or increasing their budgets (most notably
Germany with its 100 billion euro pledge). The daily bombings we
see in Ukraine has caused people in Europe to see Russia with
disgust and not only will people not sympathise with them but
will never trust them again and consider them liars, thugs and
most importantly, a threat to western democracy. I don't know
how Putin can reverse the political damage this war has caused
and I feel this attack of Ukraine has been a gross
miscalculation on his part.
#Post#: 2986--------------------------------------------------
Re: Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
By: Nearings fault Date: March 2, 2022, 5:24 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2984#msg2984 date=1646242128]
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=70.msg2983#msg2983
date=1646230672]
[quote author=RE link=topic=70.msg2982#msg2982 date=1646228442]
Here come the Storm Troopers...
HTML https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/germany-putin-ukraine-invasion/623322/
Europe’s Sleeping Giant Awakens
RE
[/quote]
I read that article.
The thought of Germany rearming and decoupling from Russian gas
is probably sending shudders through your average Russian. I
keep looking for some hidden strategy here on Vlad's part but
all I see is hubris and waste. Having had a few Ukrainian
friends I was always struck by their absolute disdain for all
things Russian. Even if Russia takes the cities if they can get
resupplied it would become a festering insurgent wound bleeding
Russia dry...
What am I missing how does Vlad win here?
[/quote]
I think he is counting on the fact that it's simply impossible
to run the German economy without Russian gas. It is possible
to run the Ruskie economy without German cars.
RE
[/quote]I doubt it's possible to run the Russian economy without
German tooling, machinery, banking, tourism, investment. They
could pivot to china but not fast. It has seemed like germany
was being very accommodating.
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