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#Post#: 1658--------------------------------------------------
Re: Food Errata
By: RE Date: November 14, 2021, 7:33 pm
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[quote author=Digwe Must link=topic=66.msg1655#msg1655
date=1636928103]
[quote author=RE link=topic=66.msg1648#msg1648 date=1636917898]
[quote author=Nearings fault link=topic=66.msg1643#msg1643
date=1636898425]
Most subsistence agriculture countries have massive fertilizer
subsidy programs. Those countries might go bust financing that
but the result would not be famine next year ...
[/quote]
Of course, but if there is not enough to go round, the highest
bidders buy first and the low bidders are left twisting in the
wind. The fertilizer shelf at the feed store is empty. You
can't buy at any price.
I did not say there would be widespread famine next year. I
said it would take 3-4 years to develop if the situation
continue.
RE
[/quote]
This 3 -4 year time frame makes sense to me given the trends in
energy/fertilizer, extreme weather and geo-politics. Another
black swan like the pandemic would accelerate the process,
perhaps rapidly - but a benign turn in the weather might delay
it. I don't know to what extent the supply chain issue is
manipulated, but if it continues late into 2022, that will also
have an impact. Increasing tensions make me think serious
international conflict will be likely in the that time frame,
and the virus related problems will still be with us. We also
can't overlook labor issues. Finding parts for John Deere farm
equipment is a treasure hunt.
Having said all that, there are fragile elements holding
commerce and finance together that could easily rip a seam in
the entire global economic system if they let go. This would
have a very fast, negative effect on global food distribution,
making the 3-4 year prediction seem rosy.
This general outcome has been obvious for a long time. The hell
is in the details.
[/quote]
It's a fluid situation with a lot of variables, so the timeline
can go one way or the other. Clearly, drought or floods in any
main exporting country would add to the negative impact and
speed things up. Again, it's more about trajectory than
absolute timelines. Does it really matter if it is 2years or 6
years?
Mostly these days all I do is link to recent newz stories and
say what I think is implied. Timelines are just best guesses.
You can draw your own conclusions from the same stories, as you
please. Arguing with Jackasses is not on my agenda.
RE
#Post#: 1661--------------------------------------------------
Hit by fertilizer shortage, farmer ends life in M.P.
By: RE Date: November 14, 2021, 10:39 pm
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Farmers in India commit suicide all the time. Suicides this
year were less than expected. Don't worry, be happy.
Hit by fertilizer shortage, farmer ends life in M.P.
HTML https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/hit-by-fertilizer-shortage-farmer-ends-life-in-mp/article37243684.ece
RE
#Post#: 1662--------------------------------------------------
WFP warns of countdown to catastrophe as acute hunger reaches ne
w peak
By: RE Date: November 14, 2021, 11:00 pm
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Current #, 45M. Trending up.
WFP warns of countdown to catastrophe as acute hunger reaches
new peak
HTML https://reliefweb.int/report/world/wfp-warns-countdown-catastrophe-acute-hunger-reaches-new-peak
RE
#Post#: 1663--------------------------------------------------
Farmers take on ‘post-apocalyptic’ food crisis
By: RE Date: November 15, 2021, 4:47 am
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As if Fertilizer isn't the only problem...
Farmers take on ‘post-apocalyptic’ food crisis
HTML https://www.limaohio.com/news/business/485523/farmers-take-on-post-apocalyptic-food-crisis
RE
#Post#: 1664--------------------------------------------------
Starvation and hunger-related deaths a reality amid worsening fo
od crises, says FAO
By: RE Date: November 15, 2021, 5:12 am
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It's only a few million and they are poor, so no worries.
HTML https://reliefweb.int/report/world/starvation-and-hunger-related-deaths-reality-amid-worsening-food-crises-says-fao
Starvation and hunger-related deaths a reality amid worsening
food crises, says FAO
RE
#Post#: 1680--------------------------------------------------
The link between India's biometric identity scheme and starvatio
n
By: RE Date: November 16, 2021, 4:37 am
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Here's a good one for the Conspiracy Analysts to chew on. Who
gets the food?
The link between India's biometric identity scheme and
starvation
HTML https://www.dw.com/en/the-link-between-indias-biometric-identity-scheme-and-starvation/a-57020334
RE
#Post#: 1685--------------------------------------------------
Re: Food Errata
By: Phil Potts Date: November 16, 2021, 12:30 pm
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HTML http://www.williamengdahl.com/englishNEO12Nov2021.php
#Post#: 1686--------------------------------------------------
Re: The link between India's biometric identity scheme and starv
ation
By: Phil Potts Date: November 16, 2021, 12:43 pm
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[quote author=RE link=topic=66.msg1680#msg1680 date=1637059046]
Here's a good one for the Conspiracy Analysts to chew on. Who
gets the food?
The link between India's biometric identity scheme and
starvation
HTML https://www.dw.com/en/the-link-between-indias-biometric-identity-scheme-and-starvation/a-57020334
RE
[/quote]
I had read about this before, people in India starving because
of this super high tech system not working. I don't think it's a
conspiracy, (other than the biometrics being an example of the
mark of the beast) just the technology is not reliable.
Imagine if they ring up to complain and after pressing 1 for
this 7 for that, and holding the line for an hour...
They get put through to an Indian call centre!
#Post#: 1691--------------------------------------------------
Re: Food Errata
By: Digwe Must Date: November 16, 2021, 3:49 pm
---------------------------------------------------------
[quote author=Phil Potts link=topic=66.msg1685#msg1685
date=1637087429]
HTML http://www.williamengdahl.com/englishNEO12Nov2021.php
[/quote]
Another good one, PP. His tally of production cutbacks and
shutdowns in the fertilizer business matches up well with other
similar reports.
The Occam's Razor concept for any one of these crises would seem
to be the usual combination of greed, incompetence and
corruption. However, stacking these interconnecting situations
upon each other (shipping, fertilizer shortages, energy costs,
equipment shortages, etc.) it seems unlikely that it all just
happened to the ag sector all at once without some form of
coordination. Unfortunately, as the situation develops
(worsens) I'm more inclined to think this is part of a very
nefarious plan.
#Post#: 1694--------------------------------------------------
Re: Food Errata
By: K-Dog Date: November 16, 2021, 6:02 pm
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RE posted info on hunger up above and in it the mysterious term
ICP4 was introduced. It turns out to be a way to classify food
insecurity:
****************************************************************
****************************************************************
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The use of the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) is a
landmark in the fight against food insecurity.
PHASE 1 Minimal : Households are able to meet essential food and
non-food needs without engaging in atypical and unsustainable
strategies to access food and income.
PHASE 2 Stressed : Households have minimally adequate food
consumption but are unable to afford some essential non-food
expenditures without engaging in stress-coping strategies.
PHASE 3 Crisis : Households either: - Have food consumption gaps
that are reflected by high or above-usual acute malnutrition;
OR
- Are marginally able to meet minimum food needs but only by
depleting essential livelihood assets or through crisis-coping
strategies.
PHASE 4 Emergency Households either : - Have large food
consumption gaps which are reflected in very high acute
malnutrition and excess mortality;
OR
- Are able to mitigate large food consumption gaps but only by
employing emergency livelihood strategies and asset liquidation.
PHASE 5 Famine : Households have an extreme lack of food and/or
other basic needs even after full employment of coping
strategies. Starvation, death, destitution, and extremely
critical acute malnutrition levels are evident. (For Famine
Classification, area needs to have extreme critical levels of
acute malnutrition and mortality.)
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